Prospect Info: Caps Prospects General Discussion Thread - 2024-25

[Random schmoe]

Considering Bobby Orr was one of Cole Hutson's draft year comps, and then showed up again December 2024, I hesitate to put much stock in those.

For every "see he was right" I can show you at least one "see he was wrong".

 

[Kazer]

At what point it is accepted that Hutson is actually ready for the NHL and the "he has to mature/hit the gym" schtick is a poor excuse for not wanting to move somebody out of that D corp this summer because it's a headache for that nepo GM? Don't come at me with that "he has to earn it" stuff. He will, just don't persuade him to waste another year with boys.

It really comes down to what Cole wants for himself. There are a number of reasons why Hutson himself may not be ready to jump to NHL ice, and there are plenty of high-end comparable D who have taken two full years in college (Fox [3 years!], Makar, Hutson, Q. Hughes, Werenski).

On Bader, the info in the top half of those cards is super interesting*. However, I find his 'comparables' to be super weak, and it actually detracts from the good information up top which basically analyzes performance vs strength of league vs how other players of a similar age have performed. I also question the relevance of 'DY comparables' for players well past being drafted (over 2 years for Leonard and over a full year now for Demidov). It's simply no longer relevant. He would also benefit by doing some time limitations on his comparisons. It's hard enough to compare the QMJHL to the KHL without trying to also compare a prospect from 40+ years ago against now (Lemieux vs Demidov).

*My caveat here is it does not take situation into account. A good example there is Leonard. He put up great numbers last year, but he benefitted by playing largely on a super line with Smith & Perreault. His numbers were down slightly this year and thus his NHLe drops despite being arguably more impressive (putting up similar numbers with a weaker supporting cast).

 

[Cappy76]

So according to the Boston Globe, Cole had mono over the summer, which is one reason he had a relatively slow start:

Brilliant, boisterous Hutson brothers have Boston University chasing history at another Frozen Four - The Boston Globe

Older brother Lane is skating his way toward NHL rookie of the year, but can his siblings do what he couldn't and win a national title with the Terriers?

www.bostonglobe.com

From the prospect forum

Evidently Cole had mono to start the year and contributed to a slower than expected start

 

[wickedwitch]

It really comes down to what Cole wants for himself. There are a number of reasons why Hutson himself may not be ready to jump to NHL ice, and there are plenty of high-end comparable D who have taken two full years in college (Fox [3 years!], Makar, Hutson, Q. Hughes, Werenski).

On Bader, the info in the top half of those cards is super interesting*. However, I find his 'comparables' to be super weak, and it actually detracts from the good information up top which basically analyzes performance vs strength of league vs how other players of a similar age have performed. I also question the relevance of 'DY comparables' for players well past being drafted (over 2 years for Leonard and over a full year now for Demidov). It's simply no longer relevant. He would also benefit by doing some time limitations on his comparisons. It's hard enough to compare the QMJHL to the KHL without trying to also compare a prospect from 40+ years ago against now (Lemieux vs Demidov).

*My caveat here is it does not take situation into account. A good example there is Leonard. He put up great numbers last year, but he benefitted by playing largely on a super line with Smith & Perreault. His numbers were down slightly this year and thus his NHLe drops despite being arguably more impressive (putting up similar numbers with a weaker supporting cast).

Leonard's even strength numbers actually went up this year. The entirety of the decrease in points/game was due to the lousy PP.

I'm not a huge fan of NHLe in isolation. It's a useful tool, but it gets overused because stats for juniors/NCAA/minors are so lousy. (I also think league strength varies a lot so it's hard to translate from league to league.) I think the in-depth reports such as these are more useful. I think in an ideal world, someone would combine the in-depth reports with a projection tool.

 

[qcal1427]

At what point it is accepted that Hutson is actually ready for the NHL and the "he has to mature/hit the gym" schtick is a poor excuse for not wanting to move somebody out of that D corp this summer because it's a headache for that nepo GM? Don't come at me with that "he has to earn it" stuff. He will, just don't persuade him to waste another year with boys.

I don't think anyone would argue that Hutson wouldn't be capable in the NHL right now if he signed. The Caps are absolutely not in a position where they need him to be in the NHL this year or next given they have one of the best and deepest groups 1-6 in the entire league and they're all signed for next year. They can then basically let him decide what he wants to do, much like they did with Leonard last year and it sounds like from all reporting he wants to do another year at BU. It's not at all a bad move or uncommon for top NCAA D prospects. Makar, Werenski, L. Hughes, L. Hutson all went back to school for their D+2 despite being clearly NHL capable. Even Buium and Q. Hughes who left after their D+1 still got 2 years of NCAA play in.

tldr: there's really nothing to be upset about on any angle in relation to Hutson's development and I don't think anyone is

 

[Kazer]

Leonard's even strength numbers actually went up this year. The entirety of the decrease in points/game was due to the lousy PP.

I'm not a huge fan of NHLe in isolation. It's a useful tool, but it gets overused because stats for juniors/NCAA/minors are so lousy. (I also think league strength varies a lot so it's hard to translate from league to league.) I think the in-depth reports such as these are more useful. I think in an ideal world, someone would combine the in-depth reports with a projection tool.

Great data. My only caveat with these kind of charts is how are you making these numbers? Because if you have humans making judgment calls or if you are working off flawed data, then you have made something 'objective' out of something subjective or inherently flawed.

That's why it's important to blend the eye test with data and with context.

 

[wickedwitch]

Great data. My only caveat with these kind of charts is how are you making these numbers? Because if you have humans making judgment calls or if you are working off flawed data, then you have made something 'objective' out of something subjective or inherently flawed.

That's why it's important to blend the eye test with data and with context.

The 1st chart comes from someone watching. The second chart is based on advanced data that is not released to the public. In theory, the latter should be pretty objective.

 

[qcal1427]

Leonard's even strength numbers actually went up this year. The entirety of the decrease in points/game was due to the lousy PP.

I'm not a huge fan of NHLe in isolation. It's a useful tool, but it gets overused because stats for juniors/NCAA/minors are so lousy. (I also think league strength varies a lot so it's hard to translate from league to league.) I think the in-depth reports such as these are more useful. I think in an ideal world, someone would combine the in-depth reports with a projection tool.

NHLe is exactly like era-adjusted numbers for me. In aggregation and in cases where there are clear gaps between individual players they're extremely useful and help create meaningful points of comparison across very different situations. Everyone intuitively knows that Hutson putting up >ppg in the NCAA is significantly more impressive than Cam Allen being ~ppg in the OHL and NHLe is a way to quantify that.

Not at all meaningful though to say that prospect X > prospect Y because their NHLe is 5 points higher. I would also note that depending on who's model you're using they're often slow to adjust to overall scoring changes because they need to look back a long ways in order to have meaningful sample sizes -- the KHL has gotten significantly worse/easier to score in the last 5 years for example.

 

[Langway]

 

[Melkor]

I don't think anyone would argue that Hutson wouldn't be capable in the NHL right now if he signed. The Caps are absolutely not in a position where they need him to be in the NHL this year or next given they have one of the best and deepest groups 1-6 in the entire league and they're all signed for next year. They can then basically let him decide what he wants to do, much like they did with Leonard last year and it sounds like from all reporting he wants to do another year at BU. It's not at all a bad move or uncommon for top NCAA D prospects. Makar, Werenski, L. Hughes, L. Hutson all went back to school for their D+2 despite being clearly NHL capable. Even Buium and Q. Hughes who left after their D+1 still got 2 years of NCAA play in.

tldr: there's really nothing to be upset about on any angle in relation to Hutson's development and I don't think anyone is

Sure he can play another year in college, I mean he can go spend all 4 of them down there. What's the point though? So Sandin/van Riemsdyk can have a spot?

I'd argue if that team is not in the conference finals by the end of the spring, they actually do need him to be in the NHL next year and do need him to be the difference maker which I personally believe he's capable of even as a rookie. If you have an NHL ready young player waiting in the wings, trade the one in his way and get a player to fill the spot that needs to be filled. The obsession with overcooking everyone is getting weird.

 

[Silky mitts]

Have to keep the escalation for the playoff path going: Leonard, Demidov, Nikishin, Hutson

 

[Langway]

 

[Lou Sassole]

Howard wins the Hobey. Kind of surprised. It does make it even sweeter to see the lightning screw up his contract situation.

 

[wickedwitch]

Howard wins the Hobey. Kind of surprised. It does make it even sweeter to see the lightning screw up his contract situation.

Yeah, I realized I'm biased regarding Leonard, but I would have gone Buium over Howard. But the Hobey committee regularly does weird (and occasionally inexplicable) things.

 

[Lou Sassole]

Yeah, I realized I'm biased regarding Leonard, but I would have gone Buium over Howard. But the Hobey committee regularly does weird (and occasionally inexplicable) thithings

Agreed, Buium is so good, and his ice time in that 2 OT game was ridiculous.

 

[wickedwitch]

The Bruins pick will be between 4th and 7th in the second round, so 36th to 39th overall. Hopefully, they at least stay behind the Flyers in the standings.

 

[Silky mitts]

The Bruins pick will be between 4th and 7th in the second round, so 36th to 39th overall. Hopefully, they at least stay behind the Flyers in the standings.

I thought the Penguins win locked it in 36 to 38.

Mateiko #2 star of game 1, could not find footage of his goal

 

[wickedwitch]

I thought the Penguins win locked it in 36 to 38.

The Bruins could still pass Philly, Buffalo, or Seattle from what I can tell.

 

[TRASHCAT]

somoeone had to

 

[usiel]

The Bruins pick will be between 4th and 7th in the second round, so 36th to 39th overall. Hopefully, they at least stay behind the Flyers in the standings.

Tankathon has the caps taking Jakob Ihs-Wozniak at 36.

I'm still on the Zharovsky hype train.

 

[Langway]

LHJMQ

chl.ca

 

[qcal1427]

Sure he can play another year in college, I mean he can go spend all 4 of them down there. What's the point though? So Sandin/van Riemsdyk can have a spot?

The point is because it's what the player wants to do and a path that is very well travelled and successful for player and team. If he has the same kind of season next year and the player or team do not want to turn pro, then I would start to get uncomfortable.

I'd argue if that team is not in the conference finals by the end of the spring, they actually do need him to be in the NHL next year and do need him to be the difference maker which I personally believe he's capable of even as a rookie. If you have an NHL ready young player waiting in the wings, trade the one in his way and get a player to fill the spot that needs to be filled. The obsession with overcooking everyone is getting weird.

It's not an obsession with overcooking everyone, it's acknowledging that relying on rookies -- even the most highly touted ones -- is taking a massive (and in the Caps' case completely unnecessary) risk. The defense is good! Sandin and TvR are good! I don't get the freaking out over something that really is not in any way a big deal.

 

[notDkristich]

Tankathon has the caps taking Jakob Ihs-Wozniak at 36.

I'm still on the Zharovsky hype train.

Do the Protas brothers have a cousin?

 

[Kazer]

Sure he can play another year in college, I mean he can go spend all 4 of them down there. What's the point though? So Sandin/van Riemsdyk can have a spot?

I'd argue if that team is not in the conference finals by the end of the spring, they actually do need him to be in the NHL next year and do need him to be the difference maker which I personally believe he's capable of even as a rookie. If you have an NHL ready young player waiting in the wings, trade the one in his way and get a player to fill the spot that needs to be filled. The obsession with overcooking everyone is getting weird.

You seem to continue to miss the point (or choose to ignore the point) that Hutson himself may want to go back to school. Caps can't force him to sign a contract.

IF Hutson wants to sign, then we can talk about the Caps finding a spot for him. But that's a massive IF at this stage, and I have not seen any serious media chatter that anyone expects him to sign right away. Conversely, I have seen media chatter that he will likely return to BU next year.

 

[Langway]

I would also like to pre-register my contempt for plausible future decisions and their imagined motivations...

But, really, they just need to make Lane vs. Cole happen ASAP to throw more spice into the first round. It won't happen but this is entertainment dag nabbit. Think of the storylines.