Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 "Season" Pt. 3

[Misery74]

Better at actual substance of their game and better at the personnel management a.k.a. getting rid of people that just fail to contribute to the team's success at the required level in time. Being at the top of the league in the regular season doesn't always paint a real picture of where the teams stands playwise at the moment. Caps fans should know that better than anybody.

I think this is valid. We have gotten half our points from BUF/NJD. We need some better showings against the top of the East.

 

[Calicaps]

Better at actual substance of their game and better at the personnel management a.k.a. getting rid of people that just fail to contribute to the team's success at the required level in time. Being at the top of the league in the regular season doesn't always paint a real picture of where the teams stands playwise at the moment. Caps fans should know that better than anybody.

Yes, they need to play better to go far in the playoffs but suggesting that they are a top 2 team that somehow secretly sucks is silly. On the other hand, the roster management has been pretty stellar the past few years. Sure there have been some mistakes along the way because nothing and no one is perfect, but my god, how many franchises or fanbases would kill or die for the kind of management this team has. Gift horses don't come along that often and folks here just can't wait to look them right in the mouth.

 

[Calicaps]

I think this is valid. We have gotten half our points from BUF/NJD. We need some better showings against the top of the East.

The only team the Caps are <.500 against is NYR which is just f***ing weird. Next worst is .500 against Boston before they started their slide.

 

[Misery74]

The only team the Caps are <.500 against is NYR which is just f***ing weird. Next worst is .500 against Boston before they started their slide.

They are under 500 against Pitt as well.

 

[caps4cup]

I think this is valid. We have gotten half our points from BUF/NJD. We need some better showings against the top of the East.

Meh. By my count the Caps are 10-5-3 against NYI, PIT, PHI, and BOS. Don’t know how much more you can ask for. Yeah they’ve beat up on NJ and BUF, but they’ve also really struggled against NYR.

 

[tenken00]

Maybe I'm missing something but DC didn't deny their request, they're just saying the review is pending with no definitive timeline for making a decision on it. That could mean they finish the regular season with no fans or it could mean Mayor Bowser grants their request today, right? Ted is likely out of patience with the government taking a long time to make a decision and this seems like this is a pretty standard strategy to get the public to put pressure on DC elected officials to make a call on letting fans in. I assume we'll hear a counter-statement from the Mayor's office fairly soon in response.

I read it as that DC didn't deny the request, but fans won't likely be allowed in the arena during the regular season.

What they did not specify (and which I'm holding out the hopiest of hopes for) is that they DO allow fans into the arena come playoff time. And allowing fans then (which would be the first time the Caps will play in front of fans in a year) might give the Caps that mental boost to make a long long run.

 

[Calicaps]

They are under 500 against Pitt as well.

Per hockey reference they are .583 vs. Pitt with 7 of 12 possible points.

 

[Kuznetsnow]

Yes, they need to play better to go far in the playoffs but suggesting that they are a top 2 team that somehow secretly sucks is silly. On the other hand, the roster management has been pretty stellar the past few years. Sure there have been some mistakes along the way because nothing and no one is perfect, but my god, how many franchises or fanbases would kill or die for the kind of management this team has. Gift horses don't come along that often and folks here just can't wait to look them right in the mouth.

It doesn't secretly suck it's the same deal as in 2010 when they were the top team thanks to talent and luck despite some sketchy play and turned into a pumpkin in the playoffs. Most of the Ovechkin era they were a flawed top RS team getting bounced including the last 2 years. Entirely possible its more of the same.

 

[Calicaps]

It doesn't secretly suck it's the same deal as in 2010 when they were the top team thanks to talent and luck despite some sketchy play and turned into a pumpkin in the playoffs. Most of the Ovechkin era they were a flawed top RS team getting bounced including the last 2 years. Entirely possible its more of the same.

Most of the Ovie era they didn't have real coaches either.

 

[Kuznetsnow]

Most of the Ovie era they didn't have real coaches either.

Yeah in the late Trotz era they started coming together even before the cup win. That's when you couldn't really point at them coming unglued in the playoffs it was just other teams being luckier/having more moxie from been there done that. I wanted Lavi over Trotz in 2014 and was a proponent of getting him this offseason over anyone else available. But there's stuff I'm seeing that concerns me, hopefully it doesn't amount to anything just like some of the discombobulated RS play during the cup season. Lavi actually seems like the perfect coach to hire mid season to spearhead a team to a cup like Sullivan/Berube/Sutter did

 

[Calicaps]

Yeah in the late Trotz era they started coming together even before the cup win. That's when you couldn't really point at them coming unglued in the playoffs it was just other teams being luckier/having more moxie from been there done that. I wanted Lavi over Trotz in 2014 and was a proponent of getting him this offseason over anyone else available. But there's stuff I'm seeing that concerns me, hopefully it doesn't amount to anything just like some of the discombobulated RS play during the cup season. Lavi actually seems like the perfect coach to hire mid season to spearhead a team to a cup like Sullivan/Berube/Sutter did

He has a vision. He's working toward it. This is a very odd season with no camp, compressed schedule, etc. If I've learned anything from being a Caps fan it's that the RS is pretty meaningless. They are a top team in the league right now. They are also a team with flaws. Which of those facts will matter in the postseason? There's no telling. A lot of posters like to assume that the poor play is indicative of how they'll fare in the playoffs and that the strong play is irrelevant. Could be. Could be the other way 'round. So why focus on the worst possible outcome. Enjoy the ride.

 

[Melkor]

Yes, they need to play better to go far in the playoffs but suggesting that they are a top 2 team that somehow secretly sucks is silly. On the other hand, the roster management has been pretty stellar the past few years. Sure there have been some mistakes along the way because nothing and no one is perfect, but my god, how many franchises or fanbases would kill or die for the kind of management this team has. Gift horses don't come along that often and folks here just can't wait to look them right in the mouth.

I didn't say they secretly suck, that's just your interpretation of my words. Their placement in the standings is of no concern, it's pretty obvious issues with their game that are not critical right now but will be if not fixed before the big show .

 

[Hivemind]

IIRC he was actually league average or slightly above the past 2 seasons. At the very least, he was a considerable upgrade from how Holtby had played since the Cup.

He had a -4.2 GSAA (Goals Saved Above Average) in 2019-20. Georgiev was +0.1 GSAA and Shesterkin was +9.3 (!!!) GSAA for the same team. This is also reflected similarly in sv%, GAA, quality start%, ES sv%, etc, where Lundqvist also performed similar/worse to Georgiev and substantially behind Shesterkin.

This isn't a defense of Holtby, but Lundqvist was never going to be this team's savior in net. He isn't the same player he used to be.

 

[Hivemind]

Per hockey reference they are .583 vs. Pitt with 7 of 12 possible points.

They've only won 2 of the 6 games they've played against the Penguins. I don't take the fact that 3 of their 4 losses came in OT as a good sign for their ability to deal with the Pens going forwards.

 

[twabby]

He had a -4.2 GSAA (Goals Saved Above Average) in 2019-20. Georgiev was +0.1 GSAA and Shesterkin was +9.3 (!!!) GSAA for the same team. This is also reflected similarly in sv%, GAA, quality start%, ES sv%, etc, where Lundqvist also performed similar/worse to Georgiev and substantially behind Shesterkin.

This isn't a defense of Holtby, but Lundqvist was never going to be this team's savior in net. He isn't the same player he used to be.

I'd use goals saved above expected or dFSv% (a goalie's fenwick save percentage minus their expected fenwick save percentage) since GSAA and raw save percentage punishes goalies for playing in front of bad defenses.

Using this, Lundqvist was the 12th best goalie in the NHL and Shesterkin was the best last year, though Lundqvist was better than Georgiev in this measure.. Of course the year before Lundqvist was 37th. And the year before that he was 25th.

I don't know that Lundqvist would have been good, but I also don't know that he would be bad. Like much of goaltending it seems random as hell.

 

[AussieCapsFan]

Bernier maybe? .918 SV% this year

Why on Earth would we want Bernier?? He won a cup with the Kings in 11-12 just by being on the roster. He has literally accomplished nothing else in his 12 year career.

Look at his playoff record. We might as well just stick with VV and Samsonov.

The team doesn't need a 5th goalie. They just need their skaters to play better in front of the two "kids".

 

[AussieCapsFan]

I'd take a long time to get over trading Vrana for Foligno. Vrana is inconsistent for sure but trading him for Foligno would be awful asset management.

Now if you want to talk about Panik + for Foligno I'm definitely interested.

I doubt the Blue Jackets want Laine Lite (Vrana) on their roster.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

I doubt the Blue Jackets want Laine Lite (Vrana) on their roster.

Laine won’t be in Columbus next year and likely neither will Torts. Trading Foligno for Vrana is exactly the kind of trade they could be making.

 

[Melkor]

Laine won’t be in Columbus next year and likely neither will Torts. Trading Foligno for Vrana is exactly the kind of trade they could be making.

Terrible trade. At least Vrana got wheels. Foligno has fallen off baaaaddd last couple of years. Whoever pulls the trigger on that trade should never be allowed in charge of any serious hockey organization ever again

 

[max21]

Why on Earth would we want Bernier?? He won a cup with the Kings in 11-12 just by being on the roster. He has literally accomplished nothing else in his 12 year career.

Look at his playoff record. We might as well just stick with VV and Samsonov.

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The team doesn't need a 5th goalie. They just need their skaters to play better in front of the two "kids".

Yeah honestly that was a stupid comment, was just somewhat surprised at his SV% this year looking around the league at goalies lol

 

[Jacoby4HOF66]

 

[HecticGlow]

This team is very much still a work-in-progress, and Lavi has made it clear a number of times he isn't happy with their play even when they're winning. At times this season their D have been very active to great success, and at other times teams have capitalised on that and got breakaways or odd-man breaks from it. Now they're being much more conservative about keeping two guys at the blue line no matter what, and D pinching in to keep pucks in the O-Zone more cautiously, and it's reduced the risk of breakaways but also reduced our offense. Dillon's decision-making scares me more than Chara, because it's easier to rest-and-reset a guy than grow him some hockey IQ overnight. But he hasn't been awful, either.

The Islanders scored a measly one goal – you think their fanbase is sitting there now thinking 'oh we're going to go far in the playoffs!!!!!111!1!!' ? VV just showed he can be dialled in and make impressive, frequent saves in close, low-scoring but high-chance games against good teams – that's huge for us.

The team has weaknesses and holes, but so does pretty much every team. The Caps did in 2018 – their D-zone was a shambles at times both structurally and in terms of personnel until the last couple of weeks of the regular season, it was the noticeable start of Holtby's decline (to the point he was replaced as starter), and we were weaker up front compared to the year before (having replaced Mojo and Williams with the likes of Alex Chiasson and Devonte Smith Pelley). And, you know, we won the Cup. The Blues went from last-place to Cup winners in 2019. Tampa just won a cup without Stamkos in the lineup, but with Kevin Shattenkirk playing a big role for them – a guy who struggled with the Caps and Rags, and is now struggling with Anaheim. He and Zach Bogosian combined for 800 playoff minutes, on a cup winning team. Luke Schenn and Jan Rutta were regulars on D, too.

This year's team has been at its best when it's been down a guy or two (or four). We lead the league in 5v5 goals for, we're on top of a difficult division and narrowly outside of the top-5 league wide despite playing two rookie goaltenders and despite Nick Dowd and Carl Hagelin averaging over 14 minutes a game TOI. Most teams get only a year or two of having a near-perfect team in the salary cap-era, and those near-perfect teams almost never win Cups. There's nothing about our weaknesses or deficiencies that can't be coached away or overcome.

And if we had this figured out by now we'd have lost it again by June. And we'd all running around scared that great Caps teams don't win Cups. Just chill.

 

[chilimac]

This team is very much still a work-in-progress, and Lavi has made it clear a number of times he isn't happy with their play even when they're winning. At times this season their D have been very active to great success, and at other times teams have capitalised on that and got breakaways or odd-man breaks from it. Now they're being much more conservative about keeping two guys at the blue line no matter what, and D pinching in to keep pucks in the O-Zone more cautiously, and it's reduced the risk of breakaways but also reduced our offense. Dillon's decision-making scares me more than Chara, because it's easier to rest-and-reset a guy than grow him some hockey IQ overnight. But he hasn't been awful, either.

The Islanders scored a measly one goal – you think their fanbase is sitting there now thinking 'oh we're going to go far in the playoffs!!!!!111!1!!' ? VV just showed he can be dialled in and make impressive, frequent saves in close, low-scoring but high-chance games against good teams – that's huge for us.

The team has weaknesses and holes, but so does pretty much every team. The Caps did in 2018 – their D-zone was a shambles at times both structurally and in terms of personnel until the last couple of weeks of the regular season, it was the noticeable start of Holtby's decline (to the point he was replaced as starter), and we were weaker up front compared to the year before (having replaced Mojo and Williams with the likes of Alex Chiasson and Devonte Smith Pelley). And, you know, we won the Cup. The Blues went from last-place to Cup winners in 2019. Tampa just won a cup without Stamkos in the lineup, but with Kevin Shattenkirk playing a big role for them – a guy who struggled with the Caps and Rags, and is now struggling with Anaheim. He and Zach Bogosian combined for 800 playoff minutes, on a cup winning team. Luke Schenn and Jan Rutta were regulars on D, too.

This year's team has been at its best when it's been down a guy or two (or four). We lead the league in 5v5 goals for, we're on top of a difficult division and narrowly outside of the top-5 league wide despite playing two rookie goaltenders and despite Nick Dowd and Carl Hagelin averaging over 14 minutes a game TOI. Most teams get only a year or two of having a near-perfect team in the salary cap-era, and those near-perfect teams almost never win Cups. There's nothing about our weaknesses or deficiencies that can't be coached away or overcome.

And if we had this figured out by now we'd have lost it again by June. And we'd all running around scared that great Caps teams don't win Cups. Just chill.

good read. thanks.

 

[Roshi]

They've only won 2 of the 6 games they've played against the Penguins. I don't take the fact that 3 of their 4 losses came in OT as a good sign for their ability to deal with the Pens going forwards.

I dont take the fact that 3 of their 4 losses came in OT as a bad sign for their ability to deal with the Pens going forward.

No 3on3s or shootouts in the playoffs. It has been close series with Pens this season. Id expect the same from playoffs. Like with Bruins and Islanders too. We might win any of them, or get swept by any of them.

 

[HecticGlow]

I dont take the fact that 3 of their 4 losses came in OT as a bad sign for their ability to deal with the Pens going forward.

No 3on3s or shootouts in the playoffs. It has been close series with Pens this season. Id expect the same from playoffs. Like with Bruins and Islanders too. We might win any of them, or get swept by any of them.

But also games that end in 3-on-3 are, by definition, close games. Teams which are almost equals on the ice. The fact that someone has the edge in January doesn't mean they do in May. I'd be far more concerned if the Pens were blowing us out game-after-game, or we'd surrendered another 4923838 goals to the Isles last night.