Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 Regular Season Part 2

[SherVaughn30]

At this point I'm 100% on board with getting a cheap goalie with intangibles. There is zero consistency with goaltending aside from like one or two guys that would be unavailable in any reasonable trade offer.

Using the data from last season and this season, the r^2 between save percentage above expected for this year compared to last year is a miniscule 0.0145. In order words, essentially random.

Spoiler: 2020-21 dFSV% vs. 2021-22 dFSV%

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Data from Evolving-Hockey.com | Standard Goalie Stats

I'm just not seeing anyone being a clear better option from an on-ice standpoint. Is Fleury really better than what Washington has now? The same Fleury that Vegas couldn't give away 2 seasons ago who then came back and won the Vezina and is now among the league's worst again? Is John Gibson's $6.4 million AAV contract worth it for 6 more years when his performance will be like throwing darts randomly at a dartboard?

Ducks are not gonna trade Gibson, plus the cost will be too much if they did trade him. Fleury's playoff experience is key for this team. Are you gonna turn a blind eye again to what Craig Anderson did for us? Vitek broke in the 1st playoff game and Anderson put up better numbers than Sammy did. Both Vitek/Sammy had high praise for Anderson while he was there. Fleury is 4 years younger and has even more playoff experience than Anderson.

 

[tycoonheart]

Hagelin is not the best defensive forward on the team.

A better term for Hagelin would he 'defensive forward with no offense'.

 

[SherVaughn30]

I'm all for the good-locker room presence being the rationale for acquiring MAF. If he is judged to have good intangible qualities as you mentioned and they can make the money work without a big acquisition cost or opportunity cost, then I'm all for it.

But I don't really think we can claim with any level of certainty that he will be good on the ice.

Have you seen how terrible the Hawks play defensively? I think they have blown something like 4 games where they had multi-goal leads and lost the game.

 

[twabby]

Have you seen how terrible the Hawks play defensively? I think they have blown something like 4 games where they had multi-goal leads and lost the game.

Yes, and Fleury has still played poorly this year despite the chances he's faced.

Plenty of goalies have done well when faced with a lot of quality chances against. For instance, Robin Lehner this season is playing behind one of the worst defenses in the league (much worse than Chicago's this year in fact) and is doing well.

Just because a defense is playing poorly does not mean the goalie cannot also be playing poorly.

 

[crab]

I'm all for the good-locker room presence being the rationale for acquiring MAF. If he is judged to have good intangible qualities as you mentioned and they can make the money work without a big acquisition cost or opportunity cost, then I'm all for it.

But I don't really think we can claim with any level of certainty that he will be good on the ice.

No more ex-Pens.

 

[SherVaughn30]

Yes, and Fleury has still played poorly this year despite the chances he's faced.

Plenty of goalies have done well when faced with a lot of quality chances against. For instance, Robin Lehner this season is playing behind one of the worst defenses in the league (much worse than Chicago's this year in fact) and is doing well.

Just because a defense is playing poorly does not mean the goalie cannot also be playing poorly.

Playing for the Hawks right now is just being around bad karma. The scandal from years past still looms on. Fleury did not really want to go to the Hawks, but took the high road and said he would play for them.

Man look at Holtby. His remaining years with the Caps after winning the Cup, plus the year with the Canucks, he looked to be no good. He signs with Stars and boom his career looks to be revived.

Zach Fucale was getting nowhere as a Habs goalie prospect and now he's revived his career with the Caps/Bears.

My point is goalies can look left for dead and then they get a right fit with another team and their careers revived.

Caps need to move on from Sammy(how many more chances are they going to tolerate giving him?), Schultz might end up gone for nothing at seasons end. Caps need to move some money and so do the Hawks. I believe it would be a win/win for both teams. After the season is done, Fleury can stick around if the fit is good and let's say he re-signs for around $3.5 million to work in tandem with Vitek next season. Maybe in the deal Hawks also have to give up a pick because Sammy turns out to be a better fit for them, like a conditional pick?

 

[kicksavedave]

Have we learned absolutely nothing from the Miracle on Ice? What matters most is who gets hot when the games count.

Where oh where is our Jim Craig?

 

[TheLegendOfPatPeake]

I hope BMac doesn’t really believe he can just call up all of Hershey and expect to stay competitive in this division. They need a goalie stat.

 

[SherVaughn30]

Any word on Vitek health status?

 

[txpd]

Have we learned absolutely nothing from the Miracle on Ice? What matters most is who gets hot when the games count.

Where oh where is our Jim Craig?

The proper staffing means finding a goaltender that is the most likely to get hot when the games count. This generally means an elite goalie as opposed to hoping for a flash in the pan to flash just at the right time.

 

[txpd]

Any word on Vitek health status?

No. Off day today. No news on anyone. Tomorrow, they will skate and Vanecek will either participate or not. Dowd, I can't imagine that he will be on the ice. If VV is not practicing, he and Dowd will be listed as day to day with an upper body and a lower body injury

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Deleted the rumors about Vitek as they’re coming from a fake CapitalsPR Twitter handle.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

 

[Holtbyisms]

I think its important to have some context with Vanecek. His numbers look different if you look closer. His 3 on 3 OT goals against are stat killers just like that garbage time goal last night. His sv% at 5 on 5 and in regulation is very strong. The Caps pk is going thru some primary personel changes with players not experienced in pk. Its suffering growing pains. Vanecek's pk sv% reflects that.

The only time VV has sniffed a percentage that high is in Czech lower league before he came to Hershey, how's that for context? lol

 

[IafrateOvie34]

Anyone have any insights on Leason. He is looking pretty good so far.

His goals scored aren't anything to make a highlight reel, but he knows where the net is and not afraid to put a puck on net. He is showing more speed with development and learning to use his big body. For a rookie, he's doing just fine.

 

[SherVaughn30]

The only time VV has sniffed a percentage that high is in Czech lower league before he came to Hershey, how's that for context? lol

These are just excuse stats. Goalies need to the saves whether it's 5-on-5, PK or 3-on-3 OT. And here's something to think about for VV supporters! PK/3-on-3 OT, there are less players to help defend VV, so that could be a good indicator he needs 5-on-5 to cover up his flaws better.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

No Fleury for me.

 

[TheLegendOfPatPeake]

These are just excuse stats. Goalies need to the saves whether it's 5-on-5, PK or 3-on-3 OT. And here's something to think about for VV supporters! PK/3-on-3 OT, there are less players to help defend VV, so that could be a good indicator he needs 5-on-5 to cover up his flaws better.

VV has never had a .915 save % in regular season.

 

[txpd]

VV has never had a .915 save % in regular season.

Defininition of never?

 

[TheLegendOfPatPeake]

Defininition of never?

10 or more game span average.

 

[YippieKaey]

I think you are missing the point while actually seeing the point. If you are not physically hard in front of your net, you are not successfully boxing out in front of the net. The same kind of skills are required for both. Winning a box out battle is about strenth and battle and work ethic. Karl Alzner wasnt really a pain delivery system but he was in complete control of the net front. There is nobody on this defense crew that brings what Alzner brought. You dont have to be a face puncher.....but it doesnt hurt

Alzner is actually a free agent right now. With all the IR guys we could get him and try him out.

 

[YippieKaey]

You really are on a mission, there hasnt been a game thread yet this season where you havent been repeating the Vanecek-diss, and regularly doing it on this thread aswell.. Ill bite for a minute.

Vanecek, 46 GP 90,8%
Samsonov 50 GP 90,7%

Samsonov is 24, Vanecek is 25. They have played all their games behind the same team. Being a goalie is not only about the size or natural talent. Its atleast as much about mental side as it is about anything else. Vanecek is lightyears ahead of Sammy in terms of mental side, and therefore I wont play along with the statement that Samsonov is the better goalie of them. Technique is a lot easier to teach than the mental side of the game, you know. Right now Vanecek is ahead.

Both are still young, so both are still having rough scretches and learning curves. Thats very expected. Hart and Knight are considered to be one of the best young goalies in the world and their percentages are 90,7 and 90,9.

You are expecting them to play like Vasilevsky. You are expecting them to "save all the shots they should, and many of what they shouldnt". Maybe its not that Vanecek or Samsonov are performing heavily under expectations, maybe its about what you expect.

Everyone wants us to have young developing players, and then they want to shit on them when they arent Vasilevsky or Ovechkin. Give it a rest for few games and let the young goalies develope.

I do agree that I would be more comfortable having a solid veteran goalie on the system when its time for the playoffs, and I would be willing to consider letting one of our young goalies go to balance the situation a bit more - because we are still in a 'win now mode'. I dont think we are at a position where we should solely rely on a young guy developing and raising to the occasion at this point of the franchise curve. But it is what it is, like you have said it yourself, circumstances played it out that way.

But if we would be to trade one of them today, Id prefer to keep Vanecek over Samsonov. He has proved to be more reliable, and he has also shown more developement over the journey theyve had so far. Vanecek in terms of talent was far behind Sammy, but he has not only leveled Sammy but surpassed him on the depth chart. I dont see a reason why Vanecek cant keep on developing, especially if/when its about technique related.

For a vet goalie id pleasantly entertain Fleury @ 50%.

Im actually just expecting them to save all the goals they should, especially in the playoffs. Which they aren´t really. A 90 save percentage won´t do in the playoffs.

 

[TheLegendOfPatPeake]

Im actually just expecting them to save all the goals they should, especially in the playoffs. Which they aren´t really. A 90 save percentage won´t do in the playoffs.

They barley have a 90 save percentage now.

 

[YippieKaey]

Re: The puck-moving vs bruising defenseman. Our defense is basically the Maple Leafs right now, looks good, lot´s of fun to watch but come playoff they will get butchered, especially with Vanny/Sammy in net. When was the last time a team won the cup without big crease clearing guys guys in their own end?

 

[trick9]

The problem with LTIR'ing Backstrom for the entire regular season and acquiring a stud is that... you actually have to make the Playoffs. Otherwise you are stuck with Backstrom not playing a competitive game in over a year, no playoff spot AND you likely lose your 1st rounder in the process of acquiring the 'stud'.

If Backstrom is healthy, we can't afford to sit him for the season. We won't make the Playoffs. The schedule has been easy so far and we are 4th in the Metro in points percentage. Fast forward 70 more games and the start of back-to-back games shortly, how likely is it that we make the Playoffs? Ovechkin and Kuznetsov are already averaging nearly 22 minutes a game. They are in the McDavid-Draisatl-Barkov territory in terms of ice-time. Why sit Backstrom and make sure he is healthy when in the process the burden of that is all on Ovechkin and Kuznetsov. I doubt there is much left in the tank with the Olympics too. Can Backstrom carry them in the Playoffs? I don't think so.

Tampa have a pretty good team. They can afford to sit Kucherov out. We can't afford to sit Backstrom out.