Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 Off-Season Pt. 2

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

This assumes that all other GMs are too dumb to read capfriendly and put two and two together. If random people on the internet can do it, safe to say it isn't the reason.

Imo the real reason he hasn't been signed is to give some plausible deniability, no matter how small, that they didn't have a wink winl agreement before the expansion draft.

Now no one really believes that isn't true but no one can prove otherwise.

Lol cap friendly.



NHL GMs know how much projected space the Caps have but the variation in an $8 million, to $10 million, to $12 million contract is a lot of room.


The uncertainty of the contract allows for better haggling. GMBM doesn’t want to start a negotiation with a GM knowing exactly how much space he needs to move, y’all must suck at cards

 

[txpd]

I was responding to who your fourth player might be along with Kempny, Dillon and Hagelin.

Yes. I understand. With that you are saying you would dump 2 top 4 d rather than a 10 min forward. Thats interesting.

 

[Langway]

I'm not sure how they're going to manage to move a defenseman or two or three in the next couple days when teams have little incentive not to let free agency play out. (Unless it's a Gostisbehere sort of deal where they're paid to add salary...far from ideal.) Teams may already have a sense of whether they can be players for certain free agents but with Suter, Martinez, Hjalmarsson, Goligoski, Murray, McCabe and Kulikov at LD teams should be pretty comfortable letting the market come to them. Dillon is still probably movable but maybe not until after those first three or four sign. Then there are other trade options like Schmidt and Ekholm that could saturate the market. Seattle remains in position to move some, particularly if they're active in free agency adding more to the mix.

This may be the time to move on from Hagelin given the value placed on some of Tampa's faster checkers and pace/checking generally. It'd be a tough loss for the PK but when cutting corners it's tough to have him as the seventh-highest forward cap hit for what he brings overall. Moving Sheary or Sprong doesn't make much sense unless they're sweeteners to replace giving up a pick. Same with TVR.

They have roughly $8.2M to sign Ovechkin, Samsonov and a back-up. Dillon, Kempny and one of Jensen or Hagelin probably need to go. Fehervary can take a LD spot. TVR can replace Jensen then they probably need a dirt cheap UFA or two. Even if they're not able to dump any salary they should be major players for anyone that will take the league minimum and provide strong value. That and any very cheap decent back-ups have to be their main area of focus...and bigger pictures that's a rough outlook.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

Yes. I understand. With that you are saying you would dump 2 top 4 d rather than a 10 min forward. Thats interesting.

I'd move Schultz (4) and Kempny (2.5) both in the last year of their contracts to the Oilers. That's 6.5 cap reduction.
I'd move Dillon (3.9) and Hagelin (2.75) to the Canucks for Schmidt (5.9) and Holtby (4.3). That's a cap addition of about 3.65.

But overall a total increase in cap space of around 2.85.

You obtain two players that the club is familiar with. Put Schmidt on the second pairing with TVR. Holtby who's in the last year of his contract replaces Vanecek.

Attraction to Canucks is that they gain 3.65 in cap while moving on from two players that rumor has they want to move on from.
Attraction to Oilers, they get two defensemen for the price of possibly resigning one (Barrie) and plus they only have the two contracts for a year.

Would try to get the Canucks to retain a bit on the Holtby contract, as not sure that the 2.85 will get Ovechkin and Samsonov deals done.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

Flyers have been openly and actively trying to give Ghost Bear away for over a year. He had negative value.

All our d-men are competent blue liners. Advanced analytics are quite high on Dillon, Schultz had a fantastic first half last year, Kempny when healthy is one of the best value contracts out there. We won’t have trouble moving Dillon if that’s who the team wants gone, Kempny is the only one who probably would be undervalued

 

[Langway]

Flyers have been openly and actively trying to give Ghost Bear away for over a year. He had negative value.

True. To be clear I don't think it would require attaching a second rounder to move any of them. But to do so on their time table may require sending out some lesser assets along with them and not just, say, getting a third rounder back. If they want to skip the market it's likely to shrink the return compared to waiting it out but the later is risky.

FWIW if they were to buy Schultz out they'd save a tidy $3.33M next season. Not terrible. Jensen would save $1.75M in cap space. Those are the two most buyout-friendly if push comes to shove.

 

[txpd]

I'd move Schultz (4) and Kempny (2.5) both in the last year of their contracts to the Oilers. That's 6.5 cap reduction.
I'd move Dillon (3.9) and Hagelin (2.75) to the Canucks for Schmidt (5.9) and Holtby (4.3). That's a cap addition of about 3.65.

But overall a total increase in cap space of around 2.85.

You obtain two players that the club is familiar with. Put Schmidt on the second pairing with TVR. Holtby who's in the last year of his contract replaces Vanecek.

Attraction to Canucks is that they gain 3.65 in cap while moving on from two players that rumor has they want to move on from.
Attraction to Oilers, they get two defensemen for the price of possibly resigning one (Barrie) and plus they only have the two contracts for a year.

Would try to get the Canucks to retain a bit on the Holtby contract, as not sure that the 2.85 will get Ovechkin and Samsonov deals done.

I know it doesn't matter but the penalty killing would suck with those changes.

 

[txpd]

Flyers have been openly and actively trying to give Ghost Bear away for over a year. He had negative value.

All our d-men are competent blue liners. Advanced analytics are quite high on Dillon, Schultz had a fantastic first half last year, Kempny when healthy is one of the best value contracts out there. We won’t have trouble moving Dillon if that’s who the team wants gone, Kempny is the only one who probably would be undervalued

Our resident analytic gurus think Dillon and Schultz suck. Maybe I am wrong about that. Kempny's when healthy days may well be past him. A player who tore his hamstring and them immediately his achilles tendon is going to have some challenges. I could see him being worth his check but I think being a bargain is not likely

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

True. To be clear I don't think it would require attaching a second rounder to move any of them. But to do so on their time table may require sending out some lesser assets along with them and not just, say, getting a third rounder back. If they want to skip the market it's likely to shrink the return compared to waiting it out but the later is risky.

FWIW if they were to buy Schultz out they'd save a tidy $3.33M next season. Not terrible. Jensen would save $1.75M in cap space. Those are the two most buyout-friendly if push comes to shove.

Schultz and Jensen both have value. You guys are talking about the D UFA market and ignoring the recent D trades where d-men are all being overpaid for.

Jensen is an analytics darling, many pundits were afraid SEA would take him. Schultz had a great first half of the season. The Capitals do not buy out contracts like that, nor should they, carrying dead cap space should be avoided at all costs

 

[pman25]

I’d move Schultz, Carlson/Jensen/TVR is good for the right side. Dillon I would keep since left D is Orlov/Dillon/ injured Kempny / then Rookies

dump Kempny if you can, otherwise you bury him but that frees up maybe $1 mil in cap space.

move Schultz to a team that needs a right shot D, there should be a few. Might be easier when the free agents settle

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

Our resident analytic gurus think Dillon and Schultz suck. Maybe I am wrong about that. Kempny's when healthy days may well be past him. A player who tore his hamstring and them immediately his achilles tendon is going to have some challenges. I could see him being worth his check but I think being a bargain is not likely

Ironically the resident analytics people on this board seem to eyeball it too often and say stuff like “he causes too many odd man rushes”

 

[Brian23]

Why on earth are people clamouring for Holtby to come back? Man was washed before he left here, and he hasn't gotten any better. Gotta stop letting old attachments dictate future decisions.

 

[txpd]

Why on earth are people clamouring for Holtby to come back? Man was washed before he left here, and he hasn't gotten any better. Gotta stop letting old attachments dictate future decisions.

View attachment 456046

More lost than washed up. How old is he?

 

[Raikkonen]

Random thoughts.

@ovi while every gm knows Caps lack cap space they cant exactly predict the contract, so have to be somewhat reasonable, because hometown discount could be a thing with Ovi

@kuzy current situation should be ok for gmbm because its kinda win-win. Rumors should light some fire under Kuzy's ass (maybe) and he could be more motivated in season obviously not wanting to find himself somewhere far from DC, or some team will actually give good price for him. Both options are better than sitting on his hands or dumping for nothing, imho

@Kempny I'll believe he can play when I'll see it

@Hagelin I think 4th line was the least of our problems in playoffs. Id still try to keep him

@DEF Schultz or Jensen, just whoever gets better offer when its critical. If both cant be dumped for good assets Id say keep Schultz for more flexibility in a year and for higher potential

@Dillon I can understand trading him for Schmidt but just dumping for cap space could backfire big time. Whos gonna be pk and physical player? Siege?! To me signing Dillon for term was calculated enough for him to be in medium term plans at least

overall im ok with

fever-carlson
orlov-jensen
dillon-tvr

 

[tenken00]

There are days where I go like George Costanza. "I like sports, I can do something in sports.. You know like general manager of a baseball team." I can run the Caps eazy-peezy no problem.

Today is not one of those days.

Good luck GMBM. Got 3 days before free agency to sign Ovechkin and Samsonov. Offload $5+ million in cap. Figure out Kuznetsov trade. Sign free agent goalie + whatever other holes. Make team better.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

So if the Cap's have some real nice contributors coming up over the next 1 -3 years (some of CMM, Leason/Protas as a pair, AA, MF and maybe HL), along with careful cap management, and be an appealing destination for what might be a slew of displaced-by-the-cap Free Agents suddenly available cheaper in the new flat cap world, a team like the Cap's can really have a chance to get to a great balance of young, mid career, and vets and have a Cup window for Ovi longer than we are expecting.

A lot of this comes from good cap management. I'd get rid of Schultz, quietly hope that MK is OK with an LTIR destiny, and hope that Ovi puts less money where his mouth is. Ovi, right now, is in a unique position to be able to singlehandedly drive what this team can can do for the next 5 or more years...

With his surprise 'PhD', maybe he plans to use it aiming for an Assistant GM role in the future. He has already been an Agent for himself, over the next few days he can actually act as GM.

$2M x 5 would be seismic, and would also be genius (he knows he can always negotiate, after retirement, for a job with the organization for the rest of his life for say $2M yr and the Caps will not say no).

I also wonder if the notion of 'finish his career with Dynamo' could mean a single-game-Gordie-Howe-at-70 thing and he actually will stay in the USA and watch his kids play for the Caps (that actually may be a family decision, maybe she prefers South Beach for retirement).

 

[tenken00]

So if the Cap's have some real nice contributors coming up over the next 1 -3 years (some of CMM, Leason/Protas as a pair, AA, MF and maybe HL), along with careful cap management, and be an appealing destination for what might be a slew of displaced-by-the-cap Free Agents suddenly available cheaper in the new flat cap world, a team like the Cap's can really have a chance to get to a great balance of young, mid career, and vets and have a Cup window for Ovi longer than we are expecting.

A lot of this comes from good cap management. I'd get rid of Schultz, quietly hope that MK is OK with an LTIR destiny, and hope that Ovi puts less money where his mouth is. Ovi, right now, is in a unique position to be able to singlehandedly drive what this team can can do for the next 5 or more years...

With his surprise 'PhD', maybe he plans to use it aiming for an Assistant GM role in the future. He has already been an Agent for himself, over the next few days he can actually act as GM.

$2M x 5 would be seismic, and would also be genius (he knows he can always negotiate, after retirement, for a job with the organization for the rest of his life for say $2M yr and the Caps will not say no).

I also wonder if the notion of 'finish his career with Dynamo' could mean a single-game-Gordie-Howe-at-70 thing and he actually will stay in the USA and watch his kids play for the Caps (that actually may be a family decision, maybe she prefers South Beach for retirement).

If Ovie signed for $2M x 5, I would eat my hat.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

I am happy with GMBM's handling of Kuzy over the draft period.

As Riakkonen mentions, may this helps fix Kuzy to some extent. I'd like to see him as an integral contributor, it great when people grow and flourish. If not, at least it may help increase his value, and better gauge where the devely cycle is with some of the promising young'uns. All the Cap's have to do is make the playoffs and go from there, so maybe this means a good value hockey trade mid-season that ignites the team for the playoffs if Kuzy is indeed moved.

 

[TheLegendOfPatPeake]

So if the Cap's have some real nice contributors coming up over the next 1 -3 years (some of CMM, Leason/Protas as a pair, AA, MF and maybe HL), along with careful cap management, and be an appealing destination for what might be a slew of displaced-by-the-cap Free Agents suddenly available cheaper in the new flat cap world, a team like the Cap's can really have a chance to get to a great balance of young, mid career, and vets and have a Cup window for Ovi longer than we are expecting.

A lot of this comes from good cap management. I'd get rid of Schultz, quietly hope that MK is OK with an LTIR destiny, and hope that Ovi puts less money where his mouth is. Ovi, right now, is in a unique position to be able to singlehandedly drive what this team can can do for the next 5 or more years...

With his surprise 'PhD', maybe he plans to use it aiming for an Assistant GM role in the future. He has already been an Agent for himself, over the next few days he can actually act as GM.

$2M x 5 would be seismic, and would also be genius (he knows he can always negotiate, after retirement, for a job with the organization for the rest of his life for say $2M yr and the Caps will not say no).

I also wonder if the notion of 'finish his career with Dynamo' could mean a single-game-Gordie-Howe-at-70 thing and he actually will stay in the USA and watch his kids play for the Caps (that actually may be a family decision, maybe she prefers South Beach for retirement).

No way in hell would he take that deal.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

If I had made 124 million so far, I'd consider $2M x 5. Maybe he can make his first great move as the future GM (after GMBM retires) early, as in this week.

GMOV

 

[Langway]

The Good and Bad of Draft Weekend | Podcasts - Sportsnet.ca

Friedman's guess on an Ovechkin contract is three or four times $10M (around the 51m mark).

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

There are days where I go like George Costanza. "I like sports, I can do something in sports.. You know like general manager of a baseball team." I can run the Caps eazy-peezy no problem.

Today is not one of those days.

Good luck GMBM. Got 3 days before free agency to sign Ovechkin and Samsonov. Offload $5+ million in cap. Figure out Kuznetsov trade. Sign free agent goalie + whatever other holes. Make team better.

TBF he actually has until Dec 1 to sign Samsonov


He technically has until whenever he and Ovechkin want to sign #8

And he doesn't actually need to trade anyone until Oct. 12th when the team needs to be cap compliant.


One thing I've noticed about veteran GMs vs. new ones is that new ones do tend to move quickly as if they will suffer if they don't get deals done ASAP (ie. Drury in NYR). Vets tend to just let the market ride until it makes sense. You don't win anything extra by resigning all your RFA day one, and sometimes it really does make sense to just hold off on a trade. Tampa Bay has been excellent at this for a few years.


EDIT: Drury trading Buchnevich is a perfect example of this. He moved him because he's going to be an expensive RFA? Okay, weird, you are rebuilding but sure, why did he think he needed to do that before the market opened though?

A good GM would've sat on that contract until the UFA market dried up and traded him then. A team would've probably overpaid. Teams that miss out on desired UFAs are almost guaranteed to make rash choices when they realize they'll end the off season with holes and nothing to show for it.

Such a bonehead move by NYR, worst case scenario you get literally the same quality of player.

 

[g00n]

So on one hand you're trying to convince me it's very blatantly obvious that BMac says he's trading Kuzy...then in the other you tell me there's no way he's flat out admit he's trading him. Which is it? I get it, everyone who's got anger seeds planted and wholeheartedly believe he was getting moved is disappointed now. Move on, find a way to route for the guy because we all knows he's talented when he's on. The return for a guy like him who's had a down year and ended up in the media for the wrong thing a couple times over the past couple years just isn't going to be there. If BMac pulls something crazy off, solves the cap problem and gets a good return that can contribute in the current window I'll admit I was wrong but logically I ain't seeing it.

Anger seeds? LOL

This is about being practical. If anything right now it's the Kuzy fans who are clinging to one playoff run where, again, EVERYONE played out of their minds.

I like Kuzy's skillset. I stuck up for him for years. But right now he's clearly in the doghouse with the front office and maybe some of the players given how he "hurt the team". There are signs from all over the place that he's being shopped, and being asked about. We don't need to JUST read the tea leaves when GMBM speaks to know that.

But at the same time there is ZERO benefit in coming right out and saying "we're looking to trade this guy because he's f***ing us up". It should be pretty obvious something like that completely tanks the value of your asset and also burns bridges in case you can't trade him. So you send out smoke signals or feelers and wait for teams to get back to you.

In fact, I'd bet GMBM wishes he'd never said a word to the media about Kuzy in the weeks after the Rd 1 loss to Boston. Better to give a pat answer and then quietly shop the guy.

Let's look at it another way: if some team offered GMBM "fair value" for Kuzy...some magical package that everyone looks at and says "yeah that's an even swap"...do you think he does it?

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

The Good and Bad of Draft Weekend | Podcasts - Sportsnet.ca

Friedman's guess on an Ovechkin contract is three or four times $10M (around the 51m mark).

This would technically be less than many had predicted, that all said, I take all Ovechkin speculation with a grain of salt. He's his own representative and he has an existing relationship with the GM/Owner, there's significantly less areas for leaks and reason for either side to do so. I truly think everyone is kind of guessing here where as most typical negotiations tend to have many parties aware of the conditions.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

I'll add I'm not expecting anything other than $9M or $10M x 5, just spitballin' what could be if he wanted it to be.