Cap estimates for 25-26 through 27-28

[LadyStanley]

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[eojsmada]

This makes the Rantanen move look silly

 

[jigglysquishy]

The optimism in the north american economy seems misguided with all that is going on now.

 

[StreetHawk]

The optimism in the north american economy seems misguided with all that is going on now.

Well these are estimates. Whether they hit those levels after 25/26 is still in question.

 

[Tawnos]

The optimism in the north american economy seems misguided with all that is going on now.

Revenue would have to actually decrease between now and 2027 to not be able to meet those numbers and still be near 50% linkage. If you take the projected $6.6B for this season, the cap for next year would end up around $113m under the old calculation formula. Them only going to that number after 3 years is a conservative approach.

@mouser do you know what the current player benefits number is? I thought I saw it was $300m, but can't find where I saw that.

NHL projecting $6.6B this year. Subtract $300m from that number for the player benefits

$6.3B/2 = $3.15B
$3.15B/32 = $98.4375m salary midpoint
$98.4375+15% = $113.2m salary cap

 

[LadyStanley]

 

[LadyStanley]

 

[Tawnos]

I wonder if that means they're considering setting the cap 2 or 3 years out at a time as part of the CBA negotiations. Having that be the permanent way they do this.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

The optimism in the north american economy seems misguided with all that is going on now.

Agreed.

And am I misrembering reality? I could've sworn that the NHL was incredibly concerned about the Canadian dollar just a couple months ago?

 

[LadyStanley]

 

[LadyStanley]

 

[LadyStanley]

 

[LadyStanley]

Revenue sharing will have to change to support small market teams reach the floor as they have exhausted all their revenue streams.

 

[mouser]

Revenue would have to actually decrease between now and 2027 to not be able to meet those numbers and still be near 50% linkage. If you take the projected $6.6B for this season, the cap for next year would end up around $113m under the old calculation formula. Them only going to that number after 3 years is a conservative approach.

@mouser do you know what the current player benefits number is? I thought I saw it was $300m, but can't find where I saw that.

NHL projecting $6.6B this year. Subtract $300m from that number for the player benefits

$6.3B/2 = $3.15B
$3.15B/32 = $98.4375m salary midpoint
$98.4375+15% = $113.2m salary cap

I’ve never seen an official number for non salary benefits. It’s also something which I believe per a former NHLPA employee increased substantially with the 2020 MOU.

If you asked me to guess a number it would be closer to $300m than $200m.

Also, there’s a minor error in your formula. The $300m is deducted from the player 50% share of HRR. Giving us:

$6.6B / 2 = $3.3B (player share)
$3.3B - $300m = $3B (deduct non salary benefits)
$3B / 32 = $93.75m midpoint
$93.75m * 115% = $107.8m cap ceiling.

However you also have to keep in mind the NHL/PA implemented the lag formula to use HRR from two seasons prior instead of the season prior because the original formula was resulting in 10% or even higher final escrow clawbacks. Which means if the goal of the NHL/PA is to minimize escrow then the salary cap should be about 10% lower than what the formula using the season prior HRR would calculate.

Using the $6.6B HRR example that would result in a cap ceiling next season of:
$107.8m * 90% = $97m cap ceiling

Not too far off the $95.5m 2025-26 cap the NHL/PA have agreed to.