Comparing the early part of a 116th overall pick vs a 10 pick is pretty disingenuous. Top 10-15 picks are closer to what they will be when drafted, it’s why they are drafted so high. So talking about earlier in their careers is weird.
Huh? Why is it weird? I'm comparing their NHL careers, not AHL or earlier careers here. I would expect a top 10 pick to get to the NHL quicker than a 116th overall pick, but once they get there I don't see how a later round pick would have some sort of longer runway in terms of developing PK ability. And since you mentioned 116th pick, I assume you're referring to Heinan here. Heinan made the NHL full time in his draft+3 year (age 22). In other words, Heinan became a full time NHL player quicker/similar to Pods.
Furthermore, I would expect that a later round pick who isn't a small skilled winger type to start off as a bottom 6 forward and be a PKer at the NHL level soon after getting to the NHL relative to a Top 10 pick.
For example, Petey (a top 10 pick) didn't start killing penalties until the 21-22 season despite being a C (coincidentally when he was 23, same as Pods).
Meanwhile, Motte (who was drafted 121st overall) killed penalties as a rookie (21 years old).
So far your argument has been mostly because he is younger…and I am just not seeing it.
Huh? You don't see Pods being younger?
The oilers are 21st in PK the Canucks are 12th.
Right so logically you would expect that a penalty killer on the Canucks who is a superior penalty killer to Pods would produce better results right? But Pods has a better GA/60 and xGA/60 than Heinan.
The Canucks went from a team that picked 11th overall to one that was a game away from making the WCF, and that probably sealed Podz' fate. If they had squeaked into or barely missed the playoffs, the team would've probably been ok with not signing Heinen (for example) and being even more patient with Podz. They just couldn't afford to babysit him when the team is constructed to play low event grind-y hockey down the lineup.
I think you made good points here except the "baby sit" part. Like I said, Tocchet's critcism of Pods is that he works too hard and has a tendency to overthink the game so Tocchet wanted him to play more recklessly. This sounds like the opposite of babysitting. Also, Pods does play a grindy game. Take last year, Pods was 3rd in takeaways per 60, 7th in giveaways per 60, 1st in hits per 60. Obviously, Pods also rank high in work ethic and motor.
I think the other thing as well is that the Canucks did pivot. They initially wanted commit money to elsewhere (e.g. Lindholm, Zadorov, Guentzel) which would have made Pods $1M AAV even more attractive.