Confirmed with Link: Canucks Trade W Vasily Podkolzin to Oilers for 2025 4th (OTT)

[F A N]

I hate this trade. I don't see why Pods can't be kept as the team's 12th/13th forward and see if he sinks or swim. Of course if the choice is between a 4th round pick and losing him to waivers then I'll take the 4th. To me, Pods is fine defensively and has the size and speed to play a traditional 4th line role. So even if the offense isn't there he doesn't really hurt the team.

So many posters here still clinging to some hope that VP will develop into some useful top 6 winger.

The sad truth is that he has never showed any sort of offensive potential and got passed on the depth chart by guys like PDG, Aman and Bains. He's not even a good bottom 6er at this point and I'm not sure he ever will be tbh.

Well he scored 14 goals in his rookie season. I don't see why he can't play on a team's bottom 6. He has the size and speed to be a good forechecker and he isn't a liability defensively. He's the type who is going to appear better in the advanced stats department than the counting stats.

 

[Josepho]

I hate this trade. I don't see why Pods can't be kept as the team's 12th/13th forward and see if he sinks or swim. Of course if the choice is between a 4th round pick and losing him to waivers then I'll take the 4th. To me, Pods is fine defensively and has the size and speed to play a traditional 4th line role. So even if the offense isn't there he doesn't really hurt the team.

The only player who Podkolzin could realistically beat out for the 13th forward spot was Di Giuseppe, who is:

a) probably completely content to be the 13th forward, lower maintenance
b) more responsible defensively and capable of killing penalties
c) well-liked by the coach

Podkolzin has some interesting physical tools but every depth player has a niche and he doesn't. Aman plays C, Sherwood hits like a truck, Sprong produces.

 

[Luck 6]

I have mostly seen and heard negative reaction to the Podkolzin trade. It seems fans are frustrated with 1) the return, and 2) that we traded him to EDM.

Thought #1

If we did not trade Podkolzin, there would be a good chance he would be claimed on waivers at the start of the season, and we would lose him for nothing.

This is based on the fact that PDG & Aman are cheaper and were more impactful than Podkolzin last season. With the signing of Sprong, Podkolzin was on track to be our 15th forward and not make the team.

As you can see below, PDG & Aman take up less cap space, averaged more pts/game (offence), and had a higher PK TOI%/game (defense) than Podkolzin last season.

PDG (10pt/51gp, avg 16.07pts/82gp, 26.4 SH TOI%, 0.775M AAV)
Aman (7pt/43gp, avg 13.34pts/gp, 24.4 SH TOI%, 0.825 M AAV
Podkolzin (2pt/19gp, avg 8.63pts/gp, 0.0 SH TOI%, 1.0M AAV)

NHL Stats

Based on last season, it is safe to say Podkolzin is currently a worse and more expensive player than PDG & Aman.

Thought #2

Trading Podkolzin specifically to EDM is a good thing for the Canucks.

If we want to win the Cup, we likely need to beat EDM first. If Podkolzin plays in EDM’s lineup, then EDM will have a forward in their main lineup who is worse than both of VAN’s spare forwards. I am very okay with playing against a player who gets less than 1 point every 10 games and does not penalty kill.

Further, if PDG is 0.775M and better than Podkolzin, then you could say Podkolzin is overpaid by at LEAST 0.225M AAV. This overpayment is now with EDM. You might think that 0.225M is nothing, but 0.225M can actually become 4.086M.

0.225M = 1.0215M at the trade deadline. With 1.0215M, you can acquire a player at 25% with a 4.086M cap hit. This 4.086M can be the difference in having enough cap space to acquire a big rental player at the deadline (e.g., Jake Guentzel last season) when combined with other cap savings.

Thought #3

Considering we could have lost Podkolzin for nothing, the value that we got back is better than most people think. OTT’s 4th round pick will likely be much higher than EDM’s 4th round pick. EDM’s 4th might be close to a 5th. OTT’s 4th might be close to a 3rd.

Thought #4

The Canucks ended up trading what was once ~350 draft value for ~10 draft value. Examining the value of NHL Draft picks - Sound Of Hockey

Podkolzin was drafted 10th OA, which equals 354.44 draft value. OTT’s 4th round pick likely falls roughly in the 100-110 OA range. That is ~10 draft value.

Does this mean ALLVIN made a bad trade? No. It means Podkolzin was NOT worth a 10 OA pick. It means Podkolzin became 1/35th of the player we expected him to become when we drafted him. It means we could have had a player who got 69 points instead of 2 points last season, if we just said “Matt Boldy” instead of "Vasiliev Podslovan”.

I think the main lesson here is that HIGH 1ST round draft picks have VERY HIGH STAKES.

Well written post, and I don't disagree with your logic, but this is all based on Podkolzin essentially not progressing much further than where he is currently at. I would hope that the Canuck's management team is better at assessing talent than I am, but to me, I don't know that I buy that. Lots of players don't fully break out until their mid to late twenties, look at Nichushkin for example, he was a nobody at age 23 and developed into a star level player by age 26. I just wasn't ready to give up on him yet to recoup a 4th round pick, I would have preferred to try to keep him around a mold him into a decent 4th liner, and hope the offense came later.

Another important point to this to me is that Podkolzin was signed for a second year at 1mil per season. So similar to Hoglander this year, if he did break out to some degree, we would have him for a discount rate next year. We have now gifted that advantage to what is presently our top division rival, so ya, he better not break out....

 

[credulous]

Well written post, and I don't disagree with your logic, but this is all based on Podkolzin essentially not progressing much further than where he is currently at. I would hope that the Canuck's management team is better at assessing talent than I am, but to me, I don't know that I buy that. Lots of players don't fully break out until their mid to late twenties, look at Nichushkin for example, he was a nobody at age 23 and developed into a star level player by age 26. I just wasn't ready to give up on him yet to recoup a 4th round pick, I would have preferred to try to keep him around a mold him into a decent 4th liner, and hope the offense came later.

Another important point to this to me is that Podkolzin was signed for a second year at 1mil per season. So similar to Hoglander this year, if he did break out to some degree, we would have him for a discount rate next year. We have now gifted that advantage to what is presently our top division rival, so ya, he better not break out....

do you really want to carry a non-productive podkolzin for 3 years hoping he'll break out at 26? it's just not realistic to extend infinite patience to players when you have limited roster space and are a competitive team. if he's not good enough to play on his own merit then you're just sitting podkolzin in the press box for most of the next 3 seasons and he likely stagnates/regresses regardless

this trade would be slightly disappointing if the canucks were projected to be a bottom dweller and could afford to prioritize long shot developmental prospects but that's not where they're at. given the situation the most likely outcome for the canucks "holding" podkolzin is them losing him on waivers either at training camp or shortly into the season when injuries hit and they need to make roster space. getting a 4th is a fine outcome in that scenario

 

[iceburg]

If I'm being completely honest, I'm extremely disappointed the Podz didn't work out here but I'm actually relieved that it's over. It's been akin to slowly pulling a bandaid off feeling each hair as it rips out of your arm then finally feeling that separation and realizing there will be no more pain.

I really, really hope he succeeds. He's one of those guys you route for.

 

[Wisp]

Wisp. We get it. The offense was never there.

We are talking about the ability to defend, backcheck, play PK, be a pest and throw some hits. He showed some of this when I watched him at the 2020 WJC. He showed promise in his own zone back in Russia.

We all knew he was a limp dick in the offensive zone from the onset. No one pegged him to be a top 6 guy. I wanted a pain in the ass bottom 6er.

production in a lower league isn't just a measure of offense but a measure of being able to excel against competition.

 

[TruGr1t]

I hate this trade. I don't see why Pods can't be kept as the team's 12th/13th forward and see if he sinks or swim. Of course if the choice is between a 4th round pick and losing him to waivers then I'll take the 4th. To me, Pods is fine defensively and has the size and speed to play a traditional 4th line role. So even if the offense isn't there he doesn't really hurt the team.


Well he scored 14 goals in his rookie season. I don't see why he can't play on a team's bottom 6. He has the size and speed to be a good forechecker and he isn't a liability defensively. He's the type who is going to appear better in the advanced stats department than the counting stats.

I don’t think he really has the skating, honestly. I was never impressed with his speed or agility at all. It was one of the main reasons he was largely a zero even in a checking role. His defensive game is pretty mediocre as well, and he never really killed penalties.

I think his only route to relevancy is actually probably offensively, and that’s been probably the worst part of his game. He did not show much indication he was going to become your typical mucker/grinder/PKer in the bottom six.

 

[SeawaterOnIce]

production in a lower league isn't just a measure of offense but a measure of being able to excel against competition.

 

[Tables of Stats]

We are talking about the ability to defend, backcheck, play PK, be a pest and throw some hits. He showed some of this when I watched him at the 2020 WJC. He showed promise in his own zone back in Russia.

That was 4 years ago. He'd have made the team if he showed the ability to do the same at the AHL or NHL level. He stalled out at the AHL level and hasn't looked good in the NHL since being asked to play within a system.

 

[bbud]

do you really want to carry a non-productive podkolzin for 3 years hoping he'll break out at 26? it's just not realistic to extend infinite patience to players when you have limited roster space and are a competitive team. if he's not good enough to play on his own merit then you're just sitting podkolzin in the press box for most of the next 3 seasons and he likely stagnates/regresses regardless

this trade would be slightly disappointing if the canucks were projected to be a bottom dweller and could afford to prioritize long shot developmental prospects but that's not where they're at. given the situation the most likely outcome for the canucks "holding" podkolzin is them losing him on waivers either at training camp or shortly into the season when injuries hit and they need to make roster space. getting a 4th is a fine outcome in that scenario

I'd also have to think coaching staff had some input and with adding the players they did what would he offer thats better ?
Podz has skills just not enough motor too often he may yet figure it out but on a Tocchet coached team details and work are what he wants from players so he may fit oilers systems hope kid does well just not against Nucks)

 

[RobertKron]

I get that this is a seemingly nice kid, but he's also going into his D+6, doesn't really generate offence anywhere, kind of fell off after signing his contract, has averaged a whopping 0:03/gp on the PK so far in his career, and we were basically hoping that maybe he might have made the team in a "skate around for ~10 min a night and run into their defenseman after he's passed the puck away" role while providing basically no other utility whatsoever at this point.

What exactly do folks want the team to do here? This player has shown very, very little the past two seasons.

 

[lawrence]

I really really really hoped it worked out well. Maybe it had to do with the 1st round bias. We drafted him out of Vancouver (we hosted the draft) I always hated drafting 10th overall. There's something about drafting 10th that I truly hate. Well anyways I really wished it worked out. Even if he was just on our 4th line. grinding away at the other team. He does have speed, strength, not exactly a liability, but far cry from what we expect from any 10th overall.

I personally think it had to do with the management knowing he wasn't really gonna play 82 games. will be in and out of the line up, also knowing he still needs work in the AHL, but he wont clear, so the best bet was trading him for something. Respects to management for finding a team for him to stay at the NHL.

- we not that good at drafting.

 

[Killer Orcas]

We got a 4th for a player that wasn't making the team instead of losing him for nothing on waivers. People need to forget where he was drafted and concentrate on how he's developed or the lack of. Sucks to lose a 10th over all pick but he just wasn't worth keeping over others that are worth more to the big league team now. Good luck to him but we have better options right now.

 

[VanJack]

The only question I'd have, is whether or not the Canucks could have gotten more for him if he'd had a decent training camp with the Canucks. As a former first round, top-10 draft pick, they might have been able to find a rebuilding team willing to offer more than a fourth round draft pick .

That's why I have a feeling that Allvin isn't done, and that the Canucks needed to clear out a contract before the start of the season in order to pick up another player. Admittedly that's a big supposition on my part......but the trade might make sense if that's the plan.

 

[Melvin]

Yeah, I thought Boldy was the pick to make as well although I didn’t see Podz falling to 10 but I likely would have picked Boldy between the two anyways. I remember thinking at the time that Podz floor was an impact third liner, and maybe it still is, but five years later he’s made virtually no impact in any pro league outside of a few flashes here and there.

I really wanted to trade down that year and take Arthur Kaliyev.

Meh, at least we'd have had an extra 2nd or something.

The funny thing is that if we had done that - people would be screaming today that we coulda had Caufield, etc. but those same people would have had no way of knowing that we'd have taken Podkolzin had we kept the pick.

This is why judging a teams drafting is ultimately a pointless endeavour

 

[orcatown]

Shouldn't be totally over looked that last season Podkolzin was very badly effected by the nasty injury he sustained (knocked out cold) when he was heavily run into the boards. Think there was reasons enough ahead of that point to be questioning his NHL upside, but that injury makes it somewhat diffcult to assess his progress last year. Same situation as many of our prospects in Abbotsford went through last year.

Could be he is damaged goods at this point.

 

[F A N]

The only player who Podkolzin could realistically beat out for the 13th forward spot was Di Giuseppe, who is:

a) probably completely content to be the 13th forward, lower maintenance
b) more responsible defensively and capable of killing penalties
c) well-liked by the coach

Podkolzin has some interesting physical tools but every depth player has a niche and he doesn't. Aman plays C, Sherwood hits like a truck, Sprong produces.

Then he beats out Di Guiseppe.

Who cares if PDG is content being the 13th forward. There's no evidence that Pods won't be happy working towards a bigger role this season. PDG can kill penalties but he's completely replaceable. DeBrusk, Sherwood, Heinen can PK.

Podkolzin's niche is that he's 23, a former first round pick, and has room for improvement. PDG is soon to be 31 and is what he is. Small sample size but Pods' hits per 60 is 20.74. PDG is 9.04. Pods also has 7 takeaways compared to PDG's 6.

I don’t think he really has the skating, honestly. I was never impressed with his speed or agility at all. It was one of the main reasons he was largely a zero even in a checking role. His defensive game is pretty mediocre as well, and he never really killed penalties.

I think his only route to relevancy is actually probably offensively, and that’s been probably the worst part of his game. He did not show much indication he was going to become your typical mucker/grinder/PKer in the bottom six.

He's a bit of a clunky skater but he has a high motor which helps a lot. Small sample size but his GA/60 is one of the best on the team. He has good possession stats and as noted above he has team leading hits per 60 stats and good takeway stats as well.

Similar to what I said about Aman, I think the team should make room for young players like Aman and Pods and see if they reach their potential. If they succeed you got a young productive player that the team developed with years of team control. If they fail then you move on to other players who are eligible for the waivers who have some upside.

 

[sting101]

Not just that he had a kid. A lot of things happened that wouldn't have helped him feel comfortable last year.

Kid then terrible camp after putting too much pressure on himself. The concussion and then he just never got the trust of Tocchet back.

it's a bad way to end his tenure not allowing for a chance to mature and bounce back. Then you send him to Edmonton?

Don't like this move.

 

[F A N]

production in a lower league isn't just a measure of offense but a measure of being able to excel against competition.

He had 5 goals 7 points in 6 games before going down that scary concussion injury. Small sample size I know but still we're not talking about a guy who can't even produce at the AHL level. Hoglander's AHL production in 22-23 was hardly promising (worse than PDG) and he scored 24 goals in the NHL last season.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Why I don't like it being the oilers?
Look at from the their point of view:
If he turns into anything good we just screwed the Canucks.
If he's even just a useful cheap bottom 6er then our biggest rivals just helped out our capped out depth lacking forward group.
If he's nothing? We waive him with no cap penalty and maybe he clears and helps out our AHL club.
For a 4th round pick that's a good gamble. In fact a no lose gamble basically.
What's in it for the Canucks?
Not 1$ mill in cap space. Whoever is on the roster instead will be making at least 750k. So basically just a 4th round pick. Last time the Canucks picked an NHL regular in the 4th round was Ronnie Stern back in 1986. Maybe this time will be different though. A 4th round pick could be anything.... maybe even the next Vasili Podkolzin!

 

[BluesyShoes]

Not just that he had a kid. A lot of things happened that wouldn't have helped him feel comfortable last year.

Kid then terrible camp after putting too much pressure on himself. The concussion and then he just never got the trust of Tocchet back.

it's a bad way to end his tenure not allowing for a chance to mature and bounce back. Then you send him to Edmonton?

Don't like this move.

What would be your alternative? I personally think they are doing Podz a kindness here. This decision was likely made with input from the scouting staff, development staff, guys like the Sedins who worked with him a bunch, and obviously the coaching staff. Given all the high motor, high footspeed additions on the wing this summer, I think the trade signals that it was basically a foregone conclusion around the club that Podz wasn't going to make the team out of camp, and then he would be on waivers in October. Waivers in October for a young Russian family is brutal. Sending him a short domestic flight to Edmonton for a full camp where he has a decent shot of cracking their roster, scoring a bit, and getting a foothold back in the league is a pretty good situation for the player and his family.

 

[LordBacon]

Its a shame that this is how it ends but tbh I dont think he is going to figure it out here in Vancouver.

IMHO, the outcome is the best for both parties.




BUT WHY DOES IT HAVE TO BE DEADMONTON THOUGH

 

[VintageBure]

Am I the only one who thinks this is pretty much fair value for him at this point ? lol

 

[Shareefruck]

Yeah, I don't like the move either and the counter-arguments are not very compelling, IMO. Feels a bit "trash the player because he left" to me.

His struggles haven't been that far from Hoglander's before the breakout, looked legitimately impressive at the NHL level in his first year (if he's never shown anything promising, that'd be something), his struggles contain an injury excuse and has not been that egregious yet, and he has enough versatility in his game that there's a possibility of him still developing in just about any direction.

Even currently, based on last season's caliber of play alone with hypothetically no expectation of a leap forward, he would arguably STILL be somewhat competitive with Di Giuseppe as a role player (while one may favor Di Giuseppe due to polish, the advantage is not THAT clear-cut, and his game does bring a certain dynamic that Di Giuseppe's doesn't, IMO-- if you asked me who I'd rather have for a single hypothetical game, I'd have to genuinely think about it).

As much as I like Di Giuseppe, he's an easily replaceable player that has no upside and is barely even a loss if we gamble on Podkolzin for a year and it doesn't work out. Hell, even replacing Di Giuseppe with Linus Karlsson (who's surprisingly reliable) as the 13th/14th forward is not THAT big of a deal, IMO. On top of that, it's not even like Di Giuseppe was that consistent as a limited role player last season to begin with. He had both good stretches and awful stretches where it looked like his wheels had fallen off, and luckily looked pretty decent in time for the playoffs.

The only justification I can see for this would be if he asked for a trade or if this was done with his career/livelihood in mind, personally.

I don't think it's a catastrophe or anything, though, just a small blip that all the great work they've done so far makes up for.

 

[Cancuks]

Valeri Nichushkin
Drafted by Dallas Stars
- round 1 #10 overall 2013 NHL Entry Draft

Final KHL Season - 0.33 PPG
First NHL Season - 14 goals
Second NHL Season - 1 point in 8 games
Third NHL Season - 9 goals, 29 points in 79 games
Fourth NHL Season - 0 goals, 10 points in 57 games
Fifth NHL Season - 13 goals, 27 points in 65 games
Sixth NHL Season - 10 goals, 21 points in 55 games


Vasili Podkolzin
Drafted by Vancouver Canucks
- round 1 #10 overall 2019 NHL Entry Draft


Final KHL Season - 0.31 PPG
First NHL Season - 14 goals
Second NHL Season - 7 points in 39 games
Third NHL Season - 0 goals, 2 points in 19 games