Confirmed with Link: Canucks Re-Sign W Nils Hoglander to 3y/3m AAV Contract

[Ernie]

Right and with the cap going up, the Canucks are making a bet that 3m will be a bargain contract for a young 30-40 point 3rd liner that has shown the ability to surpass 20 goals. I'm guessing they look at this contract as something that provides cost certainty and this will either increase or hold his value. Not sure why they are doing this now but I suspect they think he's more valuable with a contract for next season than without.

I'd bet that Castonguay worked through the different outcomes and ran the numbers to figure out how to extract value. While the Canucks currently do have a lot of depth at forward, those players are all in their late 20's. Hoglander is now signed through what should be the most productive years of his career, and while he may underperform the contract slightly, he could also outperform it considerably.

I think the idea that he's in Tocchet's doghouse is inaccurate. Tocchet has repeatedly said how much he likes Hoglander's play in the corners and in front of the net, referring to him at one point as "like a dog with a bone." Why he faded down the stretch and in the playoffs is an open question but the team has a lot more information on it than we do.

 

[F A N]

Look at the market for Heinen this offseason for example, who’s bigger and has PK utility.

I would point out that Heinan got a 2 year bridge contract for $2.8M AAV back in the day. His play and offensive production has also been up and down throughout his career. The contract we gave him accounts for this. He also wasn’t known for being good defensively or killing penalties when he was younger.

No doubt that the Canucks could have waited but players get paid for their potential and teams do like cap certainty. Hoglander scored 24 goals last season and if he scores 20+ again his arbitration case won’t be affected much by the fact that he is small and doesn’t have PK utility. There’s also the possibility that Hoglander continues to get better. This extension we gave him accounts for this.

 

[Diversification]

The floor Hogs has to meet is to be a bonafide everyday 3rd line winger. In order to reach this goal he will need to improve his off-puck (and on-puck) decision making.

That's the gamble.

If he can't, he's a winger that needs to be sheltered with soft deployment and that's not the kind of player you want to spend 3M on.

 

[LemonSauceD]

24 goals 24 goals 24 goals 24 goals 24 goals 24 goals 24 goals 24 goals 24 goals

 

[iceburg]

Good succession planning for top 6 wingers. He needs to keep on his current trajectory.

I'll add that Hoglander, from his draft year, is in or near the top 10 in goals, pts and games played and that's with very little powerplay time. Sure he still needs to work on some things but 3x3 is not unreasonable based on the comparables, particularly for a guy with upside.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

By the way, the Garland comparisons in this thread are puzzling.

Garland is an established 2nd liner that drove offense for us very consistently all season.

Hoglander would have to take a major step in his development for him to replace what Garland brings.

I think that’s fair. But Garland is making close to $5 million. Hoglander doesn’t need to be as good as Garland to be worth his $3 million salary. If he scores 20 goals and plays consistently in the top 9 somewhere then he will be worth that. Then there’s the potential upside that the contract could bring if he continues to improve. His off season work rate reminds me of the Sedins in terms of conditioning.
I think that also management is looking longer term as well and we don’t have a lot of younger impact players in the organization.

 

[iceburg]

By the way, the Garland comparisons in this thread are puzzling.

Garland is an established 2nd liner that drove offense for us very consistently all season.

Hoglander would have to take a major step in his development for him to replace what Garland brings.

Somewhat comparable would be Garland when he signed his current contract.

25 years old
164 NHL games played (plus 8 playoff games where he had 1g and 1a)
47 regular season goals and 96 points
11g/15a on powerplay with Arizona

Hoglander at 23 (24 in a couple of months)
221 games (plus 11 playoff games where he had 1g and 1a)
50 regular season goals and 90 points
2g/2a on powerplay (none in the last two years)

When factoring in Garland's powerplay time and Hoglander's lack of, they are quite close in points per game. The biggest difference in the two players is that Hoglander just signed for 3x$3M whereas Garland signed for 4x$4.95M in a year when the cap was at least 10% less.

 

[Ernie]

The floor Hogs has to meet is to be a bonafide everyday 3rd line winger. In order to reach this goal he will need to improve his off-puck (and on-puck) decision making.

That's the gamble.

If he can't, he's a winger that needs to be sheltered with soft deployment and that's not the kind of player you want to spend 3M on.

He was 9th in ES ice time last season with a coach that prioritizes defensive play so I'm not sure what the issue is.

Edit: to add, in the final 20 games of the season he was 6th in average ES ice time. He's being paid like a middle six winger, which was the role he played at the end of last season.

 

[Ernie]

To the naysayers in this thread, what would be an acceptable contract number for a 3 year extension?

 

[arttk]

I'd bet that Castonguay worked through the different outcomes and ran the numbers to figure out how to extract value. While the Canucks currently do have a lot of depth at forward, those players are all in their late 20's. Hoglander is now signed through what should be the most productive years of his career, and while he may underperform the contract slightly, he could also outperform it considerably.

I think the idea that he's in Tocchet's doghouse is inaccurate. Tocchet has repeatedly said how much he likes Hoglander's play in the corners and in front of the net, referring to him at one point as "like a dog with a bone." Why he faded down the stretch and in the playoffs is an open question but the team has a lot more information on it than we do.

Management now uses Excel!

 

[Ernie]

Management now uses Excel!

Lol, maybe even AI.

I threw this question into ChatGPT:

What is a fair contract for Nils Hoglander?

To determine a fair contract for Nils Hoglander, a few key factors need to be considered:

1. Performance and Potential: Analyze Hoglander's recent performance, including goals, assists, and overall contributions to the team. Also, consider his potential for growth based on age and playing style.
2. Market Comparisons: Look at similar players in the league regarding age, position, and performance. This will provide a benchmark for salary and contract length.
3. Team Cap Space: Consider the team's salary cap situation. This will impact how much the team can offer and the structure of the contract.
4. Contract Length: A shorter contract (1-2 years) might allow Hoglander to prove himself further, while a longer-term deal (3-4 years) could provide stability for both the player and the team.
5. Bonuses and Incentives: Including performance bonuses or incentives can align Hoglander's motivations with team success and make the contract more appealing.

A fair contract might fall in the range of $2-4 million per year, depending on these factors, with a term of 2-3 years being reasonable. Ultimately, it should reflect his contributions and the team's investment in his future.

 

[arttk]

Lol, maybe even AI.

I threw this question into ChatGPT:

i think we would've been pretty peeved at 4M. 2M-2.5M feels unrealistic. I think 3M is somewhat fair and yeah there are some risks to it but I guess the way management sees it is, if he doesn't live up to it, we'll just Kuzmenko/Mikhyev him.

The mentality is just different with this group, I think they just know they can get rid of any problems they create but they won't let the idea of them f***ing up limit them from making moves/bets.

 

[F A N]

I assume there's no movement clause on this deal. I don't think this particularly influences whether they move Hoglander one way or another. The deal isn't prohibitive at this point, though it could be if he struggles as some have noted. I still think there's not an insignificant chance he's moved post-extension.

He isn’t eligible for no movement clauses until his UFA years.

I agree that while there is some risk at the end of the day I don’t think it significantly changes the team’s ability to move him.

 

[Ernie]

i think we would've been pretty peeved at 4M. 2M-2.5M feels unrealistic. I think 3M is somewhat fair and yeah there are some risks to it but I guess the way management sees it is, if he doesn't live up to it, we'll just Kuzmenko/Mikhyev him.

The mentality is just different with this group, I think they just know they can get rid of any problems they create but they won't let the idea of them f***ing up limit them from making moves/bets.

That's the thing - he's at worst a 3rd line player as it currently stands. He could be overpaid $500k to $1m per year if he doesn't improve from where he is, but that barely registers on a $100m payroll.

They have made a bet that he'll be a $3m player through the ages of 24-27, just like they made a bet that DeBrusk is a $5.5m player through the ages of 28-35.

It shouldn't be hard to figure out what is the higher risk bet, especially since Hoglander will likely be right back on Pettersson's wing when the whole Sprong experiment doesn't work out.

 

[arttk]

That's the thing - he's at worst a 3rd line player as it currently stands. He could be overpaid $500k to $1m per year if he doesn't improve from where he is, but that barely registers on a $100m payroll.

They have made a bet that he'll be a $3m player through the ages of 24-27, just like they made a bet that DeBrusk is a $5.5m player through the ages of 28-35.

It shouldn't be hard to figure out what is the higher risk bet, especially since Hoglander will likely be right back on Pettersson's wing when the whole Sprong experiment doesn't work out.

I think it's fine, yeah it's a risk but I think there should be confidence that management will be able to clean it up and pull another bunny out of the hat if it doesn't work out.
I don't think the plan is to have Hog be on Petey's line, I think they plan to have Lekk there and (I've repeated this like too many times), Hog is Garland replacement. Garland's 5M -> Hog(3M) and Boeser's raise (2M + 6M). Lekk replaces Sprong at the same cost essentially. Raty replace Suter and give us like 600K savings? 2M out of the 5M cap increase will go towards OEL so with Forbort out, we'll have like 6.5M in cap? Maybe that cap will be allocated to keeping that player we'll trade for at the TDL but the cap situation is fine from the perspective that a) we are not going to be cap f***ed b) still have money to upgrade.

 

[credulous]

those of you who think hoglander won't be hard to trade with 9m and 3 years on his deal if he disappoints this season better hope he has a good season so your fantasies aren't crushed