Canucks & NHL News, Rumours, and & Fantasy GM | Playing out the stretch.

[andora]

Because it'd be akin to the splash they made in year one.

And recency bias with Sergachev coming back from his injury to be a core member of the team might make them not as wary as Ep40 as some.

Plus even with capspace and a new logo and franchise I dont think theyre a destination for a Marner for example so this way they use some of the warchest to upgrade a tier or two on Barrett Hayton.

So

1. They did it before
2. Hope
3. They arent in on marner

These are reasons?

 

[credulous]

Let’s use the Ducks as an example.

In a world of a 115M cap and the new TV deals, each team gets around 39.5M from the American and Canadian TV deals. Big market teams gets like 40-50M regional TV deals and small market teams only get like 5-10M apparently. So if you are the ducks, the combined tv deals will get you only around 50M. Rev sure at 6is around 44m, so that’s 94M. Ducks generated the lowest gate rev of 42M last season. So at this point small market teams with rev share is getting around ~140M in revenue. Not sure how much a small teams like the Ducks get through sponsorship, maybe like 2-5M? Assuming they are paying federal and state tax so that’s like 30%. So post tax before paying players they have 95M. So just that shows you they won’t be spending to the 115M cap. Factor in expense like management, running the team, stadium, advertising, minor league teams, travel, yeah f*** no they are nowhere close to spending to the cap.

Just to illustrate the diff between the rich and the poor. The leafs generated 134M in gate and around 50M in local broadcast deal.

henry samueli owns the ducks. he's worth like 25b. if the team is good they'll spend

 

[arttk]

henry samueli owns the ducks. he's worth like 25b. if the team is good they'll spend

Yet they have been one of the stingiest team in the league ever since he bought it.

Like I said, you can go through the same exercise for a whole bunch of teams and it’s not surprising why they won’t spend to the cap. You would require the owner to come in and make up the difference and we know owners don’t do that.

 

[Bgav]

Best case scenario, rebuild around Quinn. Not going to happen tho. Probably won’t be a contender for at least 5-10+ years. They’ll go all in for the next two years which will push this back even further

 

[Canucks LB]

Well, and here we are.
Let's get to it everybody

 

[Canucks LB]

Figured I would share this here also.

With the loss tonight, the Canucks are basically out of the playoffs for this season. It's been a pretty drama-filled year, alongside significant injuries across their lineup.

But most importantly, the Canucks have two years to convince Quinn Hughes to stay past the 2027 season.

This is going to be a monumental task, especially after what transpired this season, but as you know, things can change fast.

One thing we know for sure is that Rutherford is not shy to wheel and deal and make significant trades. I feel like there's going to be even more pressure on Jim and Allvin to make significant moves to improve the team with the two-year Quinn window.

Luckily for Vancouver, they have a ton of pieces, and most importantly, the defense is pretty much set, with a nice mix of youth and experience:

• Hughes - Hronek
• M. Petey - Myers
• D. Petey - Mancini / Willander

This is very strong, but I wouldn’t get too attached to Willander, because this brings me to the next issue.

The center position.
Currently, it's Pettersson, Blueger, Chytil, Raty, and Aman.

Suter is a UFA, and he's been great for us all season, but in my opinion, he's more of a winger.

Chytil's injury concerns are significant. We hope he gets better, but he can’t be relied on, and if he comes back, many people have him moving to the wing, because of the next issue.
But first, the Canucks' #1 priority this offseason is to find a young-ish center.
This is an incredibly hard task, but luckily, as I wrote above, they do have pieces.
For example, would a 1st round pick (12-15) + Willander / Lekkerimäki be enough to get that center? I feel there’s a shot.

Whether they want to do it is another issue altogether, because trading a guy like Willander would be a huge blow if the player they trade him for doesn’t pan out.

Also, which teams are going to trade a young center? It's a huge problem.

You can always look at the UFA market, but it's basically just Sam Bennett, who will cost a fortune. He’s not coming here, in my opinion.

The next issue is wingers. The Canucks will most likely let Boeser walk, which will free up a significant amount of cap space. The problem is that most teams in the league will also have a ton of cap space. Will the Canucks go for an impact player like Marner or Ehlers, or will they go for a mid-tier option?

Again, you need to sell Quinn Hughes on staying, so will the mid-tier option be enough?

The goalie situation will be fine with Demko and Lankinen.

And that’s where Vancouver is at. It’s going to be a pretty fascinating offseason.
What do you think they should do?

https://puckpedia.com/team/vancouver-canucks

here is the cap Situation for Vanouver.

Needs - Top 6 Center, 3rd Line Center (If Chytil moves to Wing) Top 6 Winger.
Assets - 1st + 2nd + 3rd Round Draft Picks. Lekkerimaki + Willander for significant trade pieces.

 

[rypper]

If there are teams with an internal cap when the league salary cap is 88 million, what makes you think there won't be when the cap rises to 95+ million?

 

[Diversification]

lol yeah I wonder actually how many teams will actually rebuild when the floor is like 80M. Actually those teams will be 100% collecting LTIR contracts.

...Chytil would have value in this (likely) scenario.

 

[theguardianII]

I'm not entirely sure what the point of this post is or if there really is any point to it, other than your last line about using the Abby rink as their practice facility - an hour away from VAN, and the main rink of another pro club.

They own the Abby Canucks and already lease the rink.

On any given day an hour out of Vancouver could be getting to New Westminster or Surrey

The post was about certainties, hard costs/facts that should be used to help make future plans.
The opposite of most, "we think", "we thought", "we hoped" stuff

 

[arttk]

If there are teams with an internal cap when the league salary cap is 88 million, what makes you think there won't be when the cap rises to 95+ million?

apparently @credulous thinks billionaires don't care about business sustainability and will spend to the cap because emotions and don't mind racking up 20M+ annual losses on franchises that are worth around 1 billion dollars.

 

[theguardianII]

Best case scenario, rebuild around Quinn. Not going to happen tho. Probably won’t be a contender for at least 5-10+ years. They’ll go all in for the next two years which will push this back even further

With the cap increase teams can retain their best prospects and player they think are good enough. Will the Canucks take the leftovers and trade away draft picks for instant gratification? That is the path to a perpetual rebuild stuck in the mushy middle, just like most of the last 50+ years. You would think with that much history GMs would use some of that information to not make the same mistakes over and over again, almost like they do that on purpose.

apparently @credulous thinks billionaires don't care about business sustainability and will spend to the cap because emotions and don't mind racking up 20M+ annual losses on franchises that are worth around 1 billion dollars.

Don't forget the expansion money that isn't shared with the players.

And losses can be tax write offs.

 

[Canucks LB]

Also, something fascinating would be if Quinn does decide to leave, what kind of response the market would have, because I still feel they would do it for a retool package instead of a rebuild.

I don’t even wanna think about losing Quinn Hughes, it’s painful just to even think about it

 

[theguardianII]

Also, something fascinating would be if Quinn does decide to leave, what kind of response the market would have, because I still feel they would do it for a retool package instead of a rebuild.

I don’t even wanna think about losing Quinn Hughes, it’s painful just to even think about it

Bure left, Linden left, Naslund left, many have and the arena is still filled with the "hope" of .....

Basically a captive audience, no other major sport to watch, maybe soccer but the Lions and the CFL having fallen quite a bit and that is only a few games a season. So management doesn't really have to care what fans think, they know this market will come out to watch the Abby Canucks on the ice. If that doesn't work well Houston, Kansas, Quebec, are looking for a team willing to spend more than a billion for it, and then there would be nothing here. Remember Burke and the "for a quarter this team could move" the quarter being what it cost to use a pay phone in the day. Sad to have to explain that phone thing but times change.

 

[bossram]

They own the Abby Canucks and already lease the rink.

On any given day an hour out of Vancouver could be getting to New Westminster or Surrey

The post was about certainties, hard costs/facts that should be used to help make future plans.
The opposite of most, "we think", "we thought", "we hoped" stuff

So given this premise, we should not actually discuss any possible roster moves that are unknown or uncertain. We can only discuss signed players currently on the roster.

Discussions of players who we "think" or "hope" could be available are now off limits, per theguardian. Got it. Sorry folks, table those UFA ideas.

 

[bossram]

Even if you only get Willander in for one game you burn that year, get him his bonus, and get him f***ing signed

Enough with the mindgames, this is how you create environments where players dont want to be here

JR's whole thing is playing mindgames. Thinks he's the smartest guy in the league.

 

[arttk]

JR's whole thing is playing mindgames. Thinks he's the smartest guy in the league.

It could also be media stirring shit up while claiming they don’t stir shit up.

 

[bossram]

It could also be media stirring shit up while claiming they don’t stir shit up.

The sports media in VAN today is waaaay less intense and critical than what it once was. Team and players also take fewer questions than they used to. Most of the actually critical journalists are gone too.

JR repeatedly has, at his own prerogative, gone out to the media to stir things up. It's what he does.

 

[Jerry the great]

apparently @credulous thinks billionaires don't care about business sustainability and will spend to the cap because emotions and don't mind racking up 20M+ annual losses on franchises that are worth around 1 billion dollars.

Samueli's annual dividend income is more than two hundred million. The idea he's going to pinch pennies is hilarious.

 

[supercanuck]

Also, something fascinating would be if Quinn does decide to leave, what kind of response the market would have, because I still feel they would do it for a retool package instead of a rebuild.

I don’t even wanna think about losing Quinn Hughes, it’s painful just to even think about it

When Quinn leaves, we'll spend the next 4-5 years dreaming that Bedard and Celebrini will come home...and maybe Dupont with some luck. LOL

 

[dbaz]

Just looking at the nhl roster and whose pushing from the ahl they have an abundance of bottom 6 players.

Garland 4.95
Blueger 1.8
Joshua 3.25
Chytil 4.44
Sherwood 1.5
Hoglander 3
O'Connor 2.5
Aman .825
Karlsson .775
Raty rfa
Sassons rfa
Bains rfa


Keep: sassons, O'Connor, sherwood, blueger, Karlsson

Keep unless can be traded for something that helps improve: Garland, Joshua, Raty


Get rid of: Bains, Aman, hoglander, chytil

 

[krutovsdonut]

so except for ep40 and miller, last night's roster was stronger than opening night. it's basically those two players who have a turned a team we thought was a contender into likely not even a bubble team at this point. they are what went wrong this season.

out
desharnais
heinen
hoglander
miller
ep40
soucy
sprong
silovs

in
suter
lekkermaki
joshua
karlsson
d-petey
m-petey
demko

scratches
mancini

injured
chytil
juulsen

 

[Vector]

"Obviously, you saw that Anthony was not at the practice today. This morning, Anthony and I had a very good conversation, a very positive one, and Anthony asked me to take some time off and reflect. So, obvioulsy, I agreed to that, and we'll give him all the time that he needs."

I wouldn't be opposed to taking on Duclair but it would need to come with some asset attached or other incentive. Has a full NTC and makes 3.5m for another three seasons. He's been so inconsistent throughout his career that there's decent risk he's just dead cap. There's no physicality in his game and doesn't really bring much powerplay utility. Is a burner and when things are going right, is a potent scorer.

 

[theguardianII]

So given this premise, we should not actually discuss any possible roster moves that are unknown or uncertain. We can only discuss signed players currently on the roster.

Discussions of players who we "think" or "hope" could be available are now off limits, per theguardian. Got it. Sorry folks, table those UFA ideas.

You have to have something to start off, a known factors, act on things they know, not what they think or are told or rumors or forum suggestions.

You have never built a business, there are many things that are hard costs that HAVE to taken into consideration before just investing 100K on a bet, even then most folks will look at the odds of winning.

Think and hope are for this forum, fantasy. But running anything has to have some certainty. A business plan. Lenders want certainty before lending.

Even though this is a fantasy forum with absolutely no impact on the team or life, really stupid suggestions like "Let's trade for McDavid, Mathews and McKinnon" are just too far out there.

Posters like to exercise some monticum reality in their posts.

Anyway that is an opinion, I would start a build without gambling on an outcome I have no control over and then try to minimize risk as much as possible.

If I draft a player(s) I don't need the good graces of another team, the CBA gives me surety of that contract and length of time that player will be forced to be with the team, a time frame. That is two risks avoided. Then it how much I trust those or myself in their evaluations of that player.
I can have a very good estimation of the value of QH based on the preponderance of points of current players and which teams will have cap space or assets I might want in return.
There is minimal hope or guesses involved, many thought out ideas.

 

[vancityluongo]

"Obviously, you saw that Anthony was not at the practice today. This morning, Anthony and I had a very good conversation, a very positive one, and Anthony asked me to take some time off and reflect. So, obvioulsy, I agreed to that, and we'll give him all the time that he needs."

I wouldn't be opposed to taking on Duclair but it would need to come with some asset attached or other incentive. Has a full NTC and makes 3.5m for another three seasons. He's been so inconsistent throughout his career that there's decent risk he's just dead cap. There's no physicality in his game and doesn't really bring much powerplay utility. Is a burner and when things are going right, is a potent scorer.

this is a broadly stupid oversimplification, but duclair is a bruce boudreau player, not tocchet. like a rich man's daniel sprong in some ways.

if tocchet is gone, i'd be all for adding him - he would bring some much needed skill into the top-6, and i think if paired with a high motor player like garland, could actually be a pretty useful piece, especially if he's coming for free or with an asset.

 

[Vector]

this is a broadly stupid oversimplification, but duclair is a bruce boudreau player, not tocchet. like a rich man's daniel sprong in some ways.

if tocchet is gone, i'd be all for adding him - he would bring some much needed skill into the top-6, and i think if paired with a high motor player like garland, could actually be a pretty useful piece, especially if he's coming for free or with an asset.

Yup, I thought of all this as well and had the exact same thought process.