Canucks & NHL News, Rumours, and & Fantasy GM | Playing out the stretch.

[bossram]

i think cap space is not going to be important but being able (actually having the money to) to spend to the cap is going to be a competitive advantage.

From the article you shared:

The only teams big enough to spend to the max are going to be like 10 teams. There are going to be so many teams that are not going to touch 100M like the Ducks, Jets, Flames (until they get the stadium built), Utah, CBJ, Sabres, Islanders, Preds. The rebuilding ones won't spend to the cap as well.

I kinda agree with this. Once we're at a $115M cap (and Trump has completed his dismantling of the North American economy), not many teams are going to be able to afford to spend the cash to hit the cap. There will be more budget concerns than cap concerns. Actual cap teams will have more of a problem finding good players to spend money on (look at the barren UFA list this offseason).

And I'm not saying this as if it will automatically benefit the Canucks. Aqua has become more of a cheapo off-ice in recent years. During the pandemic he gutted their front office and scouting staff and refuses to get an actual practice facility. If he has to fork out 25-30% more on player salaries too, I'm not sure if he's willing to front that money.

 

[arttk]

I kinda agree with this. Once we're at a $115M cap (and Trump has completed his dismantling of the North American economy), not many teams are going to be able to afford to spend the cash to hit the cap. There will be more budget concerns than cap concerns. Actual cap teams will have more of a problem finding good players to spend money on (look at the barren UFA list this offseason).

i mean teams that can afford to spend to the max will have a competitive advantage because you can litereally pay more to any player. For example, puckpedia is down so no idea who is a UFA 2 years from now so picking random player name. If Robertson is a UFA and non cap max teams are paying him like 11M per year, a team that can spend to the max can be like, f*** it, we are going to offer him 2-3M more because we can afford to. Or another scenario could be, oh we can spend 2nd liner money on a 3rd liner where teams that are within the 100M budget will have to spend 3rd liner money on 3rd liners. Things like that.

 

[theguardianII]

I kinda agree with this. Once we're at a $115M cap (and Trump has completed his dismantling of the North American economy), not many teams are going to be able to afford to spend the cash to hit the cap. There will be more budget concerns than cap concerns. Actual cap teams will have more of a problem finding good players to spend money on (look at the barren UFA list this offseason).

And I'm not saying this as if it will automatically benefit the Canucks. Aqua has become more of a cheapo off-ice in recent years. During the pandemic he gutted their front office and scouting staff and refuses to get an actual practice facility. If he has to fork out 25-30% more on player salaries too, I'm not sure if he's willing to front that money.

Management should deal with the known absolutes first then the guesses.

They know what the cap max will be.
They know the term, lengths of contracts players have, theirs and other teams.
They know where star players come from, the draft.
They know the ages of their players.
They should know the attitudes and personalities of their players.
They will know which players have put Canada on the no trade lists.
They will know what the salaries for drafted players are for 6+ years.
They should know that with the added cap space there will be fewer really good prospects available for trades because for the next two or three years most teams already have their players signed and the Canucks will have 5.5 million less than other teams because they pay two players to play against them on other teams.
They should know that slumps don't last 16 months.

The guesses are a reasonable as a meteor ending all life. Guesses rarely have good outcomes, ask most gamblers.

It is hockey not roulette, their hope should only be a consideration of whether or not they get fired and when. Because they will be, they all are.

As far as a practice facility, they could use Abbotsford. The cost for just the land around the lower mainland would be around/close to 20+ million

 

[Nick Lang]

I find it funny that people are talking about the cap situation the Canucks like its desperate which by no means is it. But in 2 to 3 years cap space is gonna have zero value most team won't even come close to spending to the cap they will have hard enough making it to the floor. Those 5 years where the cap went up by $2 million was peak value of cap space those days are done. Acting like it's 2020 again where when it comes to cap space in 2025 is just dumb. I am not sure cap space has much value now. What happens if revenue sharing is changed, we could see a big disparity in the have and the have nots.

Edit:

https://www.eliteprospects.com/news/nhl/what-we-learned-what-does-a-100-million-salary-cap-mean

I've seen people saying this for as long as I remember yet the Canucks and a lot of teams are cap strapped every single year. I'll believe it when I see it. As for now yeah we're fracked as far as having enough money to fix the team without getting creative.

 

[bossram]

Management should deal with the known absolutes first then the guesses.

They know what the cap max will be.
They know the term, lengths of contracts players have, theirs and other teams.
They know where star players come from, the draft.
They know the ages of their players.
They should know the attitudes and personalities of their players.
They will know which players have put Canada on the no trade lists.
They will know what the salaries for drafted players are for 6+ years.
They should know that with the added cap space there will be fewer really good prospects available for trades because for the next two or three years most teams already have their players signed and the Canucks will have 5.5 million less than other teams because they pay two players to play against them on other teams.
They should know that slumps don't last 16 months.

The guesses are a reasonable as a meteor ending all life. Guesses rarely have good outcomes, ask most gamblers.

It is hockey not roulette, their hope should only be a consideration of whether or not they get fired and when. Because they will be, they all are.

As far as a practice facility, they could use Abbotsford. The cost for just the land around the lower mainland would be around/close to 20+ million

I'm not entirely sure what the point of this post is or if there really is any point to it, other than your last line about using the Abby rink as their practice facility - an hour away from VAN, and the main rink of another pro club.

 

[andora]

i think cap space is not going to be important but being able (actually having the money to) to spend to the cap is going to be a competitive advantage.

From the article you shared:

The only teams big enough to spend to the max are going to be like 10 teams. There are going to be so many teams that are not going to touch 100M like the Ducks, Jets, Flames (until they get the stadium built), Utah, CBJ, Sabres, Islanders, Preds. The rebuilding ones won't spend to the cap as well.

So what you're saying is the planned tank rebuild approach with an empty Arena watching a shit team will be even more appealing;-)

 

[arttk]

So what you're saying is the planned tank rebuild approach with an empty Arena watching a shit team will be even more appealing;-)

lol yeah I wonder actually how many teams will actually rebuild when the floor is like 80M. Actually those teams will be 100% collecting LTIR contracts.

 

[Hansen]

Even if you only get Willander in for one game you burn that year, get him his bonus, and get him f***ing signed

Enough with the mindgames, this is how you create environments where players dont want to be here

 

[RobsonStreet]

People love to worry and get their panties in a bunch. Somehow we'll be alright and get it sorted. The team will hopefully be a lot different next year.

On the one hand, I get the anxiety. There aren’t a lot of centres available that are reasonably priced and good. The only other free agent centre I like that’s signing for less than 5 million per is Gourde.

On the other hand, the reason there aren’t a lot of centres available that are reasonably priced and good is because most teams are keeping the top 6 centres they have. I see Ottawa as a team that might be in the market for a player like this, or anyone that strikes out on players in the Bennett and Tavares class (namely, Toronto or Florida if another team chases those guys). Suter might risk getting being left without a place to land just like the last time he was a free agent. We’ll see.

 

[Diablo2020]

12 teams are spending over the 88,000,000 today.

5 more are within 1,000,000.

So 17 of 32 teams are at the cap today.

7 more are ~3,000,000 from the cap.

And 8 currently kept 3,000,000+ unspent.

How does everyone keep parroting that these teams wont be spending to the cap?

I totally understand whats happening down south. I totally understand my dollar here is worth .69c.

I dont give a damn. These are billionare owners were talking about. They basically just announced 4 new teams, first two starting at 1.5 billion dollars as expansion fees.

"Billionaire Dan Friedkin has emerged as a serious candidate to bring the NHL to Houston, sources told ESPN.

-Emily Kaplan

"As I've said multiple times recently, two new expansion teams are coming to the NHL.Expect new franchises in Houston and Atlanta to each pay an expansion fee of $1.5 billion. #34Teams"

- Allen Walsh (agent)

Rogers just announced an 11 billion dollar deal for their 12 year ownership of canadian hockey rights, yesterday!!!



The 8 teams with over 3,000,000 today all have great reasons to start spending too.

Columbus - on the cusp of something great. A team stacked with young talent theyre going to have to start paying soon, while adding around the edges. Fully capable of giving 10,000,000 to a prime UFA (See Gaudreau, see Duchene, see Bobrovsky)

Calgary - Probably not going to spend every dollar until the arena is build but fully capable of giving out Huberdeau and Kadri deals. Fully capable of a Marco Rossi offersheet at 9,000,000 to block us.

Anaheim - Just gave Vatrano a deffered deal, likely signals they plan to need it. GM Verbeek on year 3 or 4 now, obviously gonna try to take a next step sometime soon. Capable of Trouba full salary, Killorn UFA types.

San Jose - Just stacking young talent but according to canuck fans the billionare german owner wont ever try to spend to the cap I guess. Zero history of overpaying their greats (dont see Couture, Vlasic, EK, Hertl). Scooped up one Toffoli on us, capable of scooping up another.

Utah - Just dumped the Weber deal to open the space. On the verge of taking a big swing with all the ammo theyve built up. Again though im sure that guy paid 900m and now hes broke so they wont spend... (yaaaaaaa)

Nashville - Just handed out the worst UFA deals weve seen lately, but happened to tank so they are low man on salary cap today. Trotz will do everything in his power to improve, including spending Leopolds money.

Buffalo - Yeah ok, their owner is actually cheap. But dude is gonna have to spend by default just to keep Byram Peterka Quinn and others. Meanwhile just gave Greenway a raise of 1,000,000, while the player was recovering from a major hernia operation!

Chicago - My biggest fear because they have to do stupid things and spend stupid money to make Bedsy happy. Marner, Bennett, Ehlers I could see all 3.

But but but Trumpenomics! Get real people. If anyone cheaps out, it'll be Frankie who kept 3,000,000 himself this trade deadline while definetly losing money this year.

 

[Reverend Mayhem]

Kind of like the rest of Western Civilization.

Yeah...

In my own defense, I'm a bigger Red Sox fan only because I loathe the Yankees. I'd say I'm a quasi-Mariner.

 

[credulous]

12 teams are spending over the 88,000,000 today.

5 more are within 1,000,000.

So 17 of 32 teams are at the cap today.

7 more are ~3,000,000 from the cap.

And 8 currently kept 3,000,000+ unspent.

How does everyone keep parroting that these teams wont be spending to the cap?

...

But but but Trumpenomics! Get real people. If anyone cheaps out, it'll be Frankie who kept 3,000,000 himself this trade deadline while definetly losing money this year.

yeah i don't get it either. there's also revshare and escrow so even if revenues go down the real cap number will go down with them even though the "on paper" cap number stays the same

there'll be a few teams running just above the cap floor but it won't be because they can't afford to spend. it'll be because they are tanking

 

[Reverend Mayhem]

yeah i don't get it either. there's also revshare and escrow so even if revenues go down the real cap number will go down with them even though the "on paper" cap number stays the same

there'll be a few teams running just above the cap floor but it won't be because they can't afford to spend. it'll be because they are tanking

There are two economics. Real-life economics and pro-sports economics.

It's like real life economics except it makes less sense and it actually kinda works.

 

[Vector]

This isn’t the Reverend Mayhem thread. Let’s stay a little bit more on-topic.

 

[Jerry the great]

Even if you only get Willander in for one game you burn that year, get him his bonus, and get him f***ing signed

Enough with the mindgames, this is how you create environments where players dont want to be here

I'm fine with burning year one if that's what it takes to convince him to turn pro.

However, if his camp is willing to go the AHL tryout (ELC this summer) and the cost of that is maxing out schedule A performance bonuses, I'd far rather they do that.

 

[Hansen]

I'm fine with burning year one if that's what it takes to convince him to turn pro.

However, if his camp is willing to go the AHL tryout (ELC this summer) and the cost of that is maxing out schedule A performance bonuses, I'd far rather they do that.

It seemed to me that the response to that suggestion from his camp was “I’ll do my junior year then” which is not what we want in any way shape or form

 

[Reverend Mayhem]

If Tom wants NHL games, give him NHL responsibility and see how he does.

 

[Diablo2020]

Mikhail Sergachev for JJ Moser, Conor Geekie, 2nd, 7th

John Marino, 5th for 2nd, 2nd


We need to convince Utah that Ep40 and Hoglander is this years Sergachev and Marino for them.

We need the 8,850,000 savings on the Barrett Hayton for Pettersson part. (JJ Moser was 6,000,000 savings)

They can choose which of Tij Iginla, Daniil But or Cole Beaudoin they send back. (Conor Geekie)

And then they can keep all three 2nd rounders and the 5th for 7th swap and just send Josh Doan back.

Canucks save 11,000,000. Thats enough to overpay Sam Bennett. The only way we might snag him truly. (Tbay used the savings on Guentzel)

Sam Bennett
Barrett Hayton
Josh Doan
top prospect
for
Elias Pettersson
Nils Hoglander


*Utah somehow still has 10,000,000 to resign UFA Bjugstad, RFA McBain and get a backup goalie.

 

[Jerry the great]

It seemed to me that the response to that suggestion from his camp was “I’ll do my junior year then” which is not what we want in any way shape or form

My interpretation was they asked for higher bonuses in exchange for not burning a year…. I think the “going back for Junior” talk was just the agent posturing.

 

[andora]

Mikhail Sergachev for JJ Moser, Conor Geekie, 2nd, 7th

John Marino, 5th for 2nd, 2nd


We need to convince Utah that Ep40 and Hoglander is this years Sergachev and Marino for them.

We need the 8,850,000 savings on the Barrett Hayton for Pettersson part. (JJ Moser was 6,000,000 savings)

They can choose which of Tij Iginla, Daniil But or Cole Beaudoin they send back. (Conor Geekie)

And then they can keep all three 2nd rounders and the 5th for 7th swap and just send Josh Doan back.

Canucks save 11,000,000. Thats enough to overpay Sam Bennett. The only way we might snag him truly. (Tbay used the savings on Guentzel)

Sam Bennett
Barrett Hayton
Josh Doan
top prospect
for
Elias Pettersson
Nils Hoglander


*Utah somehow still has 10,000,000 to resign UFA Bjugstad, RFA McBain and get a backup goalie.

Why do you do that if you are utah

 

[Diablo2020]

Why do you do that if you are utah

Because it'd be akin to the splash they made in year one.

And recency bias with Sergachev coming back from his injury to be a core member of the team might make them not as wary as Ep40 as some.

Plus even with capspace and a new logo and franchise I dont think theyre a destination for a Marner for example so this way they use some of the warchest to upgrade a tier or two on Barrett Hayton.

 

[rypper]

He's 100% not going back to school. 2 more years. He'd have to really love the Boston U lifestyle to pass up on something like 2m in earnings.

 

[Nucker42]

I don't think they do. Pretty long history of just turning those draft picks into more draft picks later in the draft.

They’ve taken two huge swings the last 2 TDL’s. which I support because they are a player away from being a true contender. Not 7 guys like Vancouver

They do trade down quite a bit but they are elite at drafting.

Overall, Carolina is much better run than Vancouver.

 

[arttk]

yeah i don't get it either. there's also revshare and escrow so even if revenues go down the real cap number will go down with them even though the "on paper" cap number stays the same

there'll be a few teams running just above the cap floor but it won't be because they can't afford to spend. it'll be because they are tanking

Around 10 teams generate a large chunk of the revenue along with the TV deals. Rev share doesn’t help because

How Much Do Teams Get?


• The total revenue-sharing pool is around 6% of total hockey-related revenue (HRR), which in recent years has been estimated at $200–300 million.


• The top 10 highest-grossing teams contribute to the pool, while the lower-revenue teams receive payouts.


• Low-revenue teams can receive $10–20 million or more per season, depending on their financial situation.
Conditions & Limitations

• Teams must meet attendance and revenue targets to get the full share. If a team underperforms too much, they won’t get the full payout.

• If a team in a small market spends irresponsibly (e.g., bad contracts, huge deficits), they might not get full assistance.

So, while revenue sharing helps, it’s not enough for a struggling team to simply “spend to the cap” and rely on a bailout. They still need to generate a reasonable level of revenue on their own.

 

[arttk]

Let’s use the Ducks as an example.

In a world of a 115M cap and the new TV deals, each team gets around 39.5M from the American and Canadian TV deals. Big market teams gets like 40-50M regional TV deals and small market teams only get like 5-10M apparently. So if you are the ducks, the combined tv deals will get you only around 50M. Rev sure at 6is around 44m, so that’s 94M. Ducks generated the lowest gate rev of 42M last season. So at this point small market teams with rev share is getting around ~140M in revenue. Not sure how much a small teams like the Ducks get through sponsorship, maybe like 2-5M? Assuming they are paying federal and state tax so that’s like 30%. So post tax before paying players they have 95M. So just that shows you they won’t be spending to the 115M cap. Factor in expense like management, running the team, stadium, advertising, minor league teams, travel, yeah f*** no they are nowhere close to spending to the cap.

Just to illustrate the diff between the rich and the poor. The leafs generated 134M in gate and around 50M in local broadcast deal.