@Bleach Clean , I brought this post over from the last thread.
I don't think they should take on Lindholm's full cap hit either. It would be $7m/7yrs (the Canucks deal (BOS retention)) against $8m/5yrs. Norris is still favoured for less overall term, but these players aren't worlds apart in quality. And the downside risk for Norris is unmatched.
I mean, I doubt Boston retains anything on a contract with six more years on it, especially given that their current management signed that contract. But the 750K retention isn't going to tip the scales either way in this debate, in my view.
In terms of downside risk for Norris, there is also upside risk for him that isn't really there for Lindholm. Norris is 25 years old and could actually improve throughout most of the balance of his contract. He could become a point per game player. For Lindholm, the opposite is true. Its more likely than not that his play will continue to drop as he ages into his thirties, and his play would be dropping from a point where he is already a negative value asset. Obviously there is considerable risk with Norris' injury history, and as I have already said, I'm not even necessarily advocating acquiring him. But between the two players, I'd rather roll the dice on Norris.
LTIR'ing $8m AAV is the worst outcome. It pushes them to re-structure the roster beyond Norris in a way that is anathema to cap accrual. The very thing they've been chasing since Benning left.
For sure, its a bad result as I have acknowledged multiple times. But again, its a way better result than having a third line centre for next six years at seven million a year.
Next, it's disingenuous to now hand-wave EVPs as the main production tool by which to judge players. I've advocated for PPPs in the past, it doesn't fly here. (For whatever reason)
Its definitely not disingenuous since I have never taken that position, as far as I can recall. But I tend to agree with you that many posters seem to discount mostly or entirely powerplay production.
On PPPs: Last 3 years, Norris PPPs per 82 games: 17.5 PPPs (23PPPs/108GP), Lindholm's PPPs per 82 games: 16.6 PPPs (43PPPs/212GP).
In Lindholm's D+3 to D+8 years (2015-16 to 2019-20) he still beat Norris' EVPs/GP (36 EVP average to 32 EVP average) (169EVPs/386GP).
I don't really disagree that from a production perspective they are not comparable in some ways. But one is 30 with an extra year on his contract, and the other is 25. And that difference both affects projecting their future production, but also should colour our analysis of their past production (i.e., it isn't fair comparing Norris' 22-25 year seasons to Lindholm's 27-30 with the latter being closer to the players' primes._
The best argument against Lindholm is age related decline, but this does not usually happen at 30 years of age. Therefore, it's more likely to be poor play mixed with a bad fit.
That's the argument I have continually made. Its the extra year on the contract for Lindholm plus him being five years older that makes Norris much more desirable notwithstanding his past injuries.
Player decline, in terms of age, is pretty difficult to predict, and you are always going to have outliers and exceptions. But there is a
massive difference in ages 30-36, and 25-30. I just have no idea why anyone would even entertain acquiring Lindholm, whereas I get the idea of acquiring Norris and rolling the dice on his injury history. And with Lindholm, we are literally already seeing his age related decline. And we saw it last year too. And sure, he could turn things around, but it actually looks like he has already had the big age related decline already. This isn't like JT Miller where you are hoping the drop comes much later into the contract, but instead, the drop has already come. Of course he can decline further, but that's a scary proposition. He's already only a 40 point player currently. Can you imagine what his production may look like for his 33-36 seasons. 20 points? Unplayable?
Lindholm is a massive negative asset, and Norris may actually have some positive value. They aren't really comparable on that front.