TSN: Canes trying to extend Pesce this summer but will trade him if no agreement; Sabres & Oilers are interested

GIN ANTONIC

Registered User
Aug 19, 2007
19,043
15,255
Toronto, ON
Well, we can put together a good futures package. We have 13OA and many attacking prospects Flyers might be interested in.
I think Canes probably put in a sweetener because I would imagine Konecny has a little bit more value than Pesce. Overall I think the frame work is there. Flyers get a boatload of futures for TK, Sabres get their 2/3 RHD and Canes get their winger. Only thing I would say is that TK is a RW I believe, which is less needed on the Canes but maybe we could move things around to look like this.

TT - Aho - Konecny
Svech - KK - Necas
Martinook - Staal - Jarvis
 
  • Like
Reactions: Fjordy

TFHockey

The CEO of 7-8-0
May 16, 2014
7,080
4,467
Edmonton
I don't know exactly what Carolina wants for Pesce to get this deal done and move him to Edmonton. If Yamamoto goes the other way the Oilers have almost enough room to absorb Pesce's very reasonable contract. So I think he might be part of scenario. Call him a limited to no value asset. Not negative, but not really all that positive either.

So something like: Yamamoto + Bourgault (or Holloway? Would Holland do Holloway? I dunno) and a pick. Is this close to the real value of the player and what the actual trade might look like? Maybe. I can't be sure. I do know that adding a player like Pesce to the Oilers top six makes it a more complete back end and next playoffs that could pay big dividends.

I don't think a 13 OA is a very reasonable ask because of Pesce's pending UFA status. Just my opinion.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Doug Prishpreed

MarkusKetterer

Shoulda got one game in
I don't know exactly what Carolina wants for Pesce to get this deal done and move him to Edmonton. If Yamamoto goes the other way the Oilers have almost enough room to absorb Pesce's very reasonable contract. So I think he might be part of scenario. Call him a limited to no value asset. Not negative, but not really all that positive either.

So something like: Yamamoto + Bourgault (or Holloway? Would Holland do Holloway? I dunno) and a pick. Is this close to the real value of the player and what the actual trade might look like? Maybe. I can't be sure. I do know that adding a player like Pesce to the Oilers top six makes it a more complete back end and next playoffs that could pay big dividends.

I don't think a 13 OA is a very reasonable ask because of Pesce's pending UFA status. Just my opinion.

No Canes fan has asked for 13th overall for Pesce. I offered it up earlier in the thread for him.

I’d much prefer to trade the 2024 1st, because there’s a chance it will be 17th or higher. But the current placement holds more value, as Carolina knows where it will be.

If they want to flip it, then the third team knows what it is.
 

GIN ANTONIC

Registered User
Aug 19, 2007
19,043
15,255
Toronto, ON
I don't know exactly what Carolina wants for Pesce to get this deal done and move him to Edmonton. If Yamamoto goes the other way the Oilers have almost enough room to absorb Pesce's very reasonable contract. So I think he might be part of scenario. Call him a limited to no value asset. Not negative, but not really all that positive either.

So something like: Yamamoto + Bourgault (or Holloway? Would Holland do Holloway? I dunno) and a pick. Is this close to the real value of the player and what the actual trade might look like? Maybe. I can't be sure. I do know that adding a player like Pesce to the Oilers top six makes it a more complete back end and next playoffs that could pay big dividends.

I don't think a 13 OA is a very reasonable ask because of Pesce's pending UFA status. Just my opinion.
Yams is much like Olafsson from Buffalo. He's not a positive for us in any way. You may not view him as a negative but for us, that's a roster spot and cap space on a player we don't need/want. So, adding a decent/good prospect and some sort of pick isn't really moving the needle much.

Carolina and Edmonton just aren't good trade partners. There's not an available player on the Oilers roster that the Canes would be interested and Edmonton doesn't have great draft capital or prospects to bridge the gap like Buffalo would either straight up or in a 3 way trade. Y'all made your move for Ekholm, you don't have the bullets left to do it again.
 

Der Jaeger

Generational EBUG
Feb 14, 2009
17,883
14,426
Cair Paravel
The Ekholm trade did return a decent roster player, Tyson Barrie. That was enhanced by futures (a 1st and a recent 1st rounder) which the Canes tend to value as it helps relieve cap issues down the road.

The Canes would undoubtedly prefer a 1-for-1 hockey trade, but that’s tough to square with their goal of maintaining cap flexibility. The forward equivalent of a Pesce level player is likely going to be paid even more than Pesce. An Ekholm-type trade makes a lot of sense here — use the trade to pick up a cheaper forward who can fill a need, and continue to stock up on futures who can fill gaps later. Then look to the trade or UFA market for a cheap stopgap at RHD while developing Chatfield or Nikishin to take over that middle-6 role in a couple of years. In the end you come out a little weaker on D, a little stronger at F, better stocked in the pipeline, and more cap flexible as opposed to just keeping Pesce and struggling with cap space for several years.
I think the Ekholm trade is the right spot to start for a Pesce trade.
Barrie ~ Olofsson
Schaefer ~ Ryan Johnson
Pick 24 ~ Picks 39 and 45, or Isak Rosen

People might not like the pieces, but that’s a ballpark match to the Ekholm trade in terms of value.

Pesce and Ekholm should have roughly the same value on the ice. Pesce’s contract situation should lessen his return somewhat in comparison.
I see it a little different.

Barrie ~ Jokiharju, Lyubushkin, or Olofsson (willing to retain 50% on Olofsson)
Schaefer ~ Rosen. Rosen is a better prospect than Schaefer though, which balances out with the 1st.
Pick 24 ~ Sabres 2024 1st.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Satanphonehome

Doug Prishpreed

Registered User
May 1, 2013
10,598
7,141
Brooklyn
I think the Ekholm trade is the right spot to start for a Pesce trade.

I see it a little different.

Barrie ~ Jokiharju, Lyubushkin, or Olofsson (willing to retain 50% on Olofsson)
Schaefer ~ Rosen. Rosen is a better prospect than Schaefer though, which balances out with the 1st.
Pick 24 ~ Sabres 2024 1st.
That seems like a huge overpay for a one-year rental -- I doubt Adams would trade him for Rosen straight up.

A 2024 1st should be enough as the main part of the deal, with a little extra on top that doesn't touch our top 10 prospects.
 

GIN ANTONIC

Registered User
Aug 19, 2007
19,043
15,255
Toronto, ON
That seems like a huge overpay for a one-year rental -- I doubt Adams would trade him for Rosen straight up.

A 2024 1st should be enough as the main part of the deal, with a little extra on top that doesn't touch our top 10 prospects.
Jesus Christ... keep all your prospects and just be OK with not getting good quality NHL players via trade.
 

TFHockey

The CEO of 7-8-0
May 16, 2014
7,080
4,467
Edmonton
Yams is much like Olafsson from Buffalo. He's not a positive for us in any way. You may not view him as a negative but for us, that's a roster spot and cap space on a player we don't need/want. So, adding a decent/good prospect and some sort of pick isn't really moving the needle much.

Carolina and Edmonton just aren't good trade partners. There's not an available player on the Oilers roster that the Canes would be interested and Edmonton doesn't have great draft capital or prospects to bridge the gap like Buffalo would either straight up or in a 3 way trade. Y'all made your move for Ekholm, you don't have the bullets left to do it again.

There seems to be another team who will take Yamamoto essentially for free at full pop, so I suppose it isn't necessary to include him in a deal for Pesce.

I don't personally think Pesce will land as much as Ekholm because of the short duration of his remaining contract, but if the Canes wait for a deadline deal one never really knows.

I think a good prospect and a pick might get it done IRL but that's just a guess.
 

Chan790

Registered User
Sponsor
Jan 24, 2012
3,975
2,572
Bingy town, NY
That seems like a huge overpay for a one-year rental -- I doubt Adams would trade him for Rosen straight up.

A 2024 1st should be enough as the main part of the deal, with a little extra on top that doesn't touch our top 10 prospects.
The rough valuation-decay of a year's delay on a draft pick, not accounting for better-or-worse drafts, is approximately 1 round.

Let's assume next season will go as badly as this year did, in order to simplify the math, and project your 2024 1st to be #13 again. (The Sabres will probably do better in 2024 than 2023, so this assumption favors Buffalo)

So a 2024 1st (#13) has a valuation of a 2023 2nd. (roughly 2023 #44) Except, this is expected to be a much deeper draft than 2024...so it's probably closer to equaling 2023 #50 or lower in value.

If you think you can get Pesce for a value equivalency of #50oa and, say, Olafsson...I don't feel bad suggesting you're a good bit short of value, good sir.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Stickpucker

Three On Zero

HF Designated Parking Instructor
Sponsor
Oct 9, 2012
30,754
28,808
Do you ever think before you type? Hes in the last year of his contract. With your little obsession with the Oilers you should probably know that. Maybe focus on your Canucks or whatever team is yours
Delusional if you don’t think Holland wants to go out on a high note, and not be known as an over the hill GM who couldn’t succeed with McDavid. This is Holland’s last and final hurrah.

I do appreciate the rattled response though ;)
 

Der Jaeger

Generational EBUG
Feb 14, 2009
17,883
14,426
Cair Paravel
The rough valuation-decay of a year's delay on a draft pick, not accounting for better-or-worse drafts, is approximately 1 round.

Let's assume next season will go as badly as this year did, in order to simplify the math, and project your 2024 1st to be #13 again. (The Sabres will probably do better in 2024 than 2023, so this assumption favors Buffalo)

So a 2024 1st (#13) has a valuation of a 2023 2nd. (roughly 2023 #44) Except, this is expected to be a much deeper draft than 2024...so it's probably closer to equaling 2023 #50 or lower in value.

If you think you can get Pesce for a value equivalency of #50oa and, say, Olafsson...I don't feel bad suggesting you're a good bit short of value, good sir.
I'd love to see the metrics which support the valuation, and when the valuation of a pick actually increases. Seems to be a little arbitrary without any historical support which lays out what NHL GMs will typically value an out year 1st as.

Either way, even assuming that a 2024 1st has a value of a 2023 2nd, including Rosen as the prospect is more valuable than Schaefer, so it evens out.
 

StormCast

Registered User
Jan 26, 2008
4,691
2,808
Raleigh, NC
I never said Canes should or would take the offer of futures.

But Ekholm is the better defenseman that was traded with 3 years of term. You should expect something slightly less than that return.
Outside of term, which would be moot because a trade only makes sense with an extension, how specifically is Ekholm better than Pesce?
 

TFHockey

The CEO of 7-8-0
May 16, 2014
7,080
4,467
Edmonton
Outside of term, which would be moot because a trade only makes sense with an extension, how specifically is Ekholm better than Pesce?

That is probably up to the individual. Personally I think Ekholm has more offensive upside than Pesce, but Carolina fans might think Pesce on the whole is a better or equal defenseman. Just my opinion.

The big difference in return for these two players is

1) Length of contract before going UFA (so far no one knows for sure what Pesce is asking in a new deal, so this remains relevant)
2) Ekholm was a deadline deal.

The Canes can close that gap by waiting until the deadline if they're willing to risk it.
 

StormCast

Registered User
Jan 26, 2008
4,691
2,808
Raleigh, NC
That is probably up to the individual. Personally I think Ekholm has more offensive upside than Pesce, but Carolina fans might think Pesce on the whole is a better or equal defenseman. Just my opinion.

The big difference in return for these two players is

1) Length of contract before going UFA (so far no one knows for sure what Pesce is asking in a new deal, so this remains relevant)
2) Ekholm was a deadline deal.

The Canes can close that gap by waiting until the deadline if they're willing to risk it.
Right but Ekholm is at $6.25M/year and let's say Pesce is signed and traded or traded and extended at a similar amount, which seems reasonable, for argument's sake. With that as a premise, I'm really just interested in specifics around the other poster's definitive claim that Ekholm > Pesce.
 

Chan790

Registered User
Sponsor
Jan 24, 2012
3,975
2,572
Bingy town, NY
I'd love to see the metrics which support the valuation, and when the valuation of a pick actually increases. Seems to be a little arbitrary without any historical support which lays out what NHL GMs will typically value an out year 1st as.

Either way, even assuming that a 2024 1st has a value of a 2023 2nd, including Rosen as the prospect is more valuable than Schaefer, so it evens out.
I don't remember where that came from, some talking head, and embarrassingly, now I that I about it, I think he was talking about NFL picks during that draft a few years ago. So, not necessarily relevant. I'd like data for that though as well. People here act like the picks have equivalent value for delayed years when they clearly wouldn't.

I was responding though to the guy saying that the Sabres 2024 1st plus a small add, with the Sabres top-10 prospects off-limits, should be sufficient to trade for Pesce. That would be low value at the TDL, let alone for a full season.

While he's not ideal, Rosén is starting to grow on me. Not for the top-6 hole...but if we don't flip him, as a low cost long-term replacement for TT; then allowing us to use him in a change-of-scenery trade or let him walk at the end of 2024 and reallocate that cap.
 

Gabrielor

Registered User
Jun 28, 2011
13,780
14,495
Buffalo, NY
I think the Ekholm trade is the right spot to start for a Pesce trade.
Not really. Ekholm had the rest of the 22-23 season and has 3 years left.

Pesce has 1 year. Not that comparable...

As a Canes fan I would do this if negotiations go poorly enough that we won't be extending him. Do prefer to just get him extended though.
Sabres fans would need to know what 'futures' means.

Because if we're coming out the gate in hfboard fashion with like 'Savoie+13', then no thanks.
 

Big Daddy Cane

HFBoards Sponsor
Sponsor
Feb 8, 2010
13,710
33,110
Western PA
Unsigned impending UFAs have gone for quality returns in the Summer before. A 10 year sample includes Ryan, Lucic, Barrie and Ristolainen. I'm leaving Karlsson out for player quality reasons.

The underwhelming returns at the time in that sample were Boychuk and Skinner, both with extenuating circumstances. Boston was under a brutal cap crunch late in the offseason and Carolina had to deal with an NMC. Side note, in a hockey gods rewarding a tough situation twist, some good players and prospects were taken with those picks (Carlo, Lindgren, Kochetkov, Nikishin).

Carolina is trying to win the Stanley Cup next year. There are no cap problems. The team doesn’t need a shakeup. He hasn't asked for a trade. He’s not being forced out by an internal replacement.

The motivation for a trade is the return. It's not going to be cost effective for the acquiring team.
 
  • Like
Reactions: GIN ANTONIC

Der Jaeger

Generational EBUG
Feb 14, 2009
17,883
14,426
Cair Paravel
I don't remember where that came from, some talking head, and embarrassingly, now I that I about it, I think he was talking about NFL picks during that draft a few years ago. So, not necessarily relevant. I'd like data for that though as well. People here act like the picks have equivalent value for delayed years when they clearly wouldn't.

I was responding though to the guy saying that the Sabres 2024 1st plus a small add, with the Sabres top-10 prospects off-limits, should be sufficient to trade for Pesce. That would be low value at the TDL, let alone for a full season.

While he's not ideal, Rosén is starting to grow on me. Not for the top-6 hole...but if we don't flip him, as a low cost long-term replacement for TT; then allowing us to use him in a change-of-scenery trade or let him walk at the end of 2024 and reallocate that cap.
Rosen is a winger, who despite being a little small, will go to the tough spots on the ice. His speed and skill are really his best traits. He's got a great shot and is a good playmakers. High hockey IQ. He's not a throw in prospect. Buffalo is just deep in skilled and fast forwards right now.
Not really. Ekholm had the rest of the 22-23 season and has 3 years left.

Pesce has 1 year. Not that comparable...
And Pesce is younger with a lot left to give, which was the criticism of a potential Ekholm trade.

If Adams thinks he can re-sign him, then the Ekholm trade is a good starting point.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Rowley Birkin

MM917

Registered User
Aug 18, 2022
1,094
609
I can't imagine the Oilers have any pieces (that they would move) that come close to getting a player like this.

I know Oilers media like to throw around Yamamoto as a key piece but he sucks, so do they prospects outside the NHL and Holloway and McLeod are run of the mill pieces that are bit parts in a deal like this not key pieces.
 
  • Like
Reactions: GIN ANTONIC

GIN ANTONIC

Registered User
Aug 19, 2007
19,043
15,255
Toronto, ON
Not really. Ekholm had the rest of the 22-23 season and has 3 years left.

Pesce has 1 year. Not that comparable...


Sabres fans would need to know what 'futures' means.

Because if we're coming out the gate in hfboard fashion with like 'Savoie+13', then no thanks.
As mentioned, I think the value would vary based on Pesce coming with an extension that is agreeable to Buffalo. The tricky thing is that is would have to be at a number/term that is too high for Carolina to want to just keep him, but not so high that Buffalo doesn't like the deal.
 

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad