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Canada’s Cup drought has become statistically ridiculous

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The problem with this statistic is it assumes all teams involved are equal when they're not. Ottawa has a statistically much lower chance of winning than say, Montreal who has a lower chance themselves seeing as Carolina dispatched them easily.

So the odds were never 99.94%. At least not in a realistic scenario.
You are talking over a 30 years period, all teams tend to get better and worse. During this window, there were very few teams who were probably never a contender, and those were American.

There are some years where Canadian teams had very little chacnes of winning, there are some years where the Vegas odds have 2 Canadian teams among the top 4.

The chances varry year by year, and actually the variance typically improves the chances (i.e. an event which has a 20% one year and a 30% next year is a bit more likely to happen than one which has a 25% chance of happening each year).

At the end of the day, the discussion about having 25% is completelly irrelevant. The relevant thing is that, if stats teach us something is that, under normal circumstances, low chances events are bound to happen in long term.
 
Yes, that’s the point. Canada’s lack of Cups is not a simple matter of ‘not enough Canadian teams’. The math proves this.

If you actually understand it, the math proves the opposite....

While I agree, it is impossible to put an actual number to those odds, the odds of a Canadian team not winning the cup over a 30 years span are extremelly low.
 
If it's a one way street why do people in Phienix have a hate on for LA so much?

Second Fiddle Syndrome? Large city dwarved by an even much larger city and so feel like the ugly cousin?

Or maybe LA has Toronto Sybdrome- a huge city in the vastness of an empty western USA (compared to the east and particularly outside of CA) and holds itself up as the greatest and most important city in the universe.
They hate LA because so many of their former neighbors moved from SoCal to Arizona
 
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I think it is a real thing that the states without income tax are the ones winning. And will only continue in the future I think.
 
I think it is a real thing that the states without income tax are the ones winning. And will only continue in the future I think.
You can't blame the players for wanting to play in states with no income tax ( though I'm not sure it's as widespread as some believe) I think weather and anonymity are more than likely reasons players go to states with no income tax and I think contrary to American players who enjoy being around mom, dad and siblings Canadian players can't get far enough away from family.


Though I wonder how gary would react if the Canadian government and provincial governments decided professional athletes pay no income tax. I suspect he wouldn't be happy and would do something to prevent it, saying it was unfair.


I understand the ability for teams to pay huges bonuses is being banned ......I wonder why.
 
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I think it is a real thing that the states without income tax are the ones winning. And will only continue in the future I think.
With the cap rising it gives more wiggle room for the higher tax teams to up their offers though. Also some teams will be told by ownership that they're no longer allowed to spend to the cap because of how rapidly it's increasing over the next few years so that'll be a new big factor besides taxes when it comes to bidding wars in free agency.
 
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February 1, 1993

Thats the date Gary Bettman stepped in as a commissioner.

SC teams for the following years:
  • 1994: New York Rangers
  • 1995: New Jersey Devils
  • 1996: Colorado Avalanche
  • 1997: Detroit Red Wings
  • 1998: Detroit Red Wings
  • 1999: Dallas Stars
  • 2000: New Jersey Devils
  • 2001: Colorado Avalanche
Colorado those years were the ex Nordiques, so you can put an asterix on those cups as being partially organised by a canadian management group.

It is weird that the Nordiques couldn't win anything in Quebec but the moment they move to the states they're SC champions.

The league is rigged, there's no doubt about that.

Also why would they reject Jim Balsillie's multiple attempts at acquiring an US based team and relocate it to Canada ?

They've rejected Quebec, Ontario and a few other places from canada. You can say its to protect the current teams but i think thats bs. There's definitly room for a 2nd and third team in toronto and a 2nd team in quebec, easely.
 
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February 1, 1993

Thats the date Gary Bettman stepped in as a commissioner.

SC teams for the following years:
  • 1994: New York Rangers
  • 1995: New Jersey Devils
  • 1996: Colorado Avalanche
  • 1997: Detroit Red Wings
  • 1998: Detroit Red Wings
  • 1999: Dallas Stars
  • 2000: New Jersey Devils
  • 2001: Colorado Avalanche
Colorado those years were the ex Nordiques, so you can put an asterix on those cups as being partially organised by a canadian management group.

It is weird that the Nordiques couldn't win anything in Quebec but the moment they move to the states they're SC champions.

The league is rigged, there's no doubt about that.

Also why would they reject Jim Balsillie's multiple attempts at acquiring an US based team and relocate it to Canada ?

They've rejected Quebec, Ontario and a few other places from canada. You can say its to protect the current teams but i think thats bs. There's definitly room for a 2nd and third team in toronto and a 2nd team in quebec, easely.
Patrick Roy.

Patrick.....Roy.

He joined the Avalanche part way through 1996.


Basille:

Winnipeg Jets.

Winnipeg.....Jets.

Difference?
Thomson plays well with others.


Franchise.

They call them franchises. Why? Because the idea is you own a territory and reap all the profits from that territory.

The NYI only got a team to prevent the WHA from moving in

You're not very good at the conspiracy theory thing. 😏
 
You can't blame the players for wanting to play in states with no income tax ( though I'm not sure it's as widespread as some believe) I think weather and anonymity are more than likely reasons players go to states with no income tax and I think contrary to American players who enjoy being around mom, dad and siblings Canadian players can't get far enough away from family.


Though I wonder how gary would react if the Canadian government and provincial governments decided professional athletes pay no income tax. I suspect he wouldn't be happy and would do something to prevent it, saying it was unfair.


I understand the ability for teams to pay huges bonuses is being banned ......I wonder why.
Why would Bettman care if players didn't pay income taxes?
 
I think it is a real thing that the states without income tax are the ones winning. And will only continue in the future I think.

When did Seattle and Nashville win? Could it just be that Tampa, Florida, and Vegas have competent owners and management? I dunno what do you think of that wild idea?
 
Since 1994, Canadian teams have reached the Stanley Cup Final 8 times:
  1. 1994 Vancouver (lost in G7)
  2. 2004 Calgary (lost in G7)
  3. 2006 Edmonton (lost in G7)
  4. 2007 Ottawa
  5. 2011 Vancouver (lost in G7)
  6. 2021 Montreal
  7. 2024 Edmonton (lost in G7)
  8. 2025 Edmonton
What is wild is more than half of them going to game 7 and not winning a single one of them. 50/50 chance, 0 wins. That's like my luck when I play the lottery
 
When did Seattle and Nashville win? Could it just be that Tampa, Florida, and Vegas have competent owners and management? I dunno what do you think of that wild idea?
Not to mention this very PO 3/4 of SF csme from states with income tax and the Cup winner came from that same group.
 
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The big issue for me is the disadvantaged NHL Draft for Canadian based teams. Every team in Canada now has to factor in much higher flight risk with American players. Especially when drafting in the top 10.

Fresh off loosing Q. Hughes, the Canucks likely have Chase Reid far down their list because of US birthplace, for example, even though he probably should be a priority.

Its only a matter of time before Brady the Baby demands a trade like his brother, same for Helly and likely Matthews. Its now an epidemic.

On the trade demand front, I highly doubt the likes of Larkin accepts a trade to a Canadian team even though most could easily afford to pay for him. No beach. No desert. No deals.

So any American fan pretending they just don't get it or its all just meaningless conspiracy, shake your head.
 

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