CAN/FIN: Would you pull the goalie if the game is tied late?

[ijuka]

Using the maths from earlier, you need to assume that Team Sweden has around a 66.667% chance of beating Team USA in regulation for this to have a positive expectation. The betting odds for that outcome are +253. So it's unlikely it would ever be a good idea, though you could assume that Team USA might not be giving it their all since this isn't such a meaningful match for them.

Do you think you're displaying an understanding of statistics and probability here? lol

Not sure what your problem is, but no. That's simplified napkin math. It's to support the "obviously not"-argument. The numbers are crude approximations, but even that's more than enough to demonstrate the discrepancy.

Perhaps you believe you're contributing more with your post, though.

Now, if you want to go into statistics and probability theory. Sure. Which do you want to do? Quantum mechanics, hyperbolic, euclidean, bayesian, frequentist? string theory? quantum field theory? Let's hear what you have to offer.

 

[a mangy Meowth]

Not sure what your problem is, but no. That's simplified napkin math. It's to support the "obviously not"-argument. Perhaps you believe you're contributing more with your post, though.

It's not math when you just make up all the numbers lol

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

I don’t t think you can. Giving up an empty netter seals your fate and gives the spot to the opposing team.

Winning in OT still requires Sweden to win in regulation, which is no easy task.

I think USA would tank the game.

Sweden needs to win in regulation. The odds for that are +253, so the vigless odds probably are around +300 aka 25%.

If the game's tied, let's assume the chance of you winning in OT is 50%

If you pull your goalie, let's assume the chances you get scored against is 3 times as great as the chances of you scoring.

Let's assume pulling the goalie doubles your chances of scoring.

If the average goals per 60 are 3 per team, let's assume that by default, each team has a 7.5% chance to score during the last 90 seconds and that if that happens, no further goals will occur.

Not pulling goalie: 7.5% reg win, 7.5% reg loss, 42.5% ot loss, 42.5% ot win -> 7.5% win regardless, 42.5% win if sweden does not win in regulation -> 39.375% not pulling goalie

Pulling goalie: 15% reg win, 45% reg loss, 20% ot loss, 20% ot win -> 15% win regardless, 20% win if sweden does not win in regulation -> 30% pulling goalie

-> Obviously not, and you can just use common sense for it.

I'll be making that bet if Canada does win in overtime

The USA would much rather play Sweden than Canada. If this happens the odds will change

 

[T REX]

cooper loves to pull the goalie

might happen in the first

 

[Johnny Tomala]

Nope. Never go full Tortorella.

 

[Nakawick]

It would not make sense for either team to pull the goalie if they are tied. Much more likely to give up a goal than to score one. A goal against in that situation is the end of the tournament. They would play the game out and try to get 2 points. Sweden would have to beat the US in regulation to get to 5 points in order to pass Finland or Canada with 4. Finland and Canada both have the head to head tie breaker against Sweden with head to head wins.

If either Canada or Finland get 3 points that would eliminate Sweden and the USA vs Sweden game would be meaningless. If they took a page out of the NFL they would switch game times so that the US and Sweden play first.

 

[Nakawick]

Granted, if say the US and Sweden game was first, and Sweden got 3 points, and if Finland and Canada were tied late, it would make sense for both teams to pull the goalie. What a crazy scenario that would be.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I guess that’s what it comes down to do you trust the US to go all out to win and set up a rematch against Canada.

They would be foolish to go “all out”. They should play the top players lighter minutes and give rest to anyone dinged up. If Sweden wins, it doesn’t mean the USA lost “on purpose”. They’re just taking advantage of the position they earned by virtue of going 2-0-0-0.

Canada needs to worry about simply winning their game, rather than pre-emptive conspiracy theories.

 

[Deep Blue Metallic]

All valid questions, OP. They wouldn't need to be asked if this tourney had more teams and games.

 

[Czechboy]

If a Swedish regulation win eliminated Canada (and Finland) then I would fully expect the USA to lose that one.

Canada must be aware of that possibility... And would be wise to beat Finland in regulation to avoid that exact scenario.

 

[Nakawick]

If a Swedish regulation win eliminated Canada (and Finland) then I would fully expect the USA to lose that one.

Canada must be aware of that possibility... And would be wise to beat Finland in regulation to avoid that exact scenario.

The Finns will be aware of that scenario as well and will be playing hard. If the Finland vs Canada game ended with a 2 point win, the US would be tempting fate to lose to Sweden in regulation and then face them again n the final.

This is the first US game at home and it’s a national holiday. I don’t think the US is going to let up, they will rest guys, maybe rest Helleybuck, but they will be ready mentally and motivated. The danger is that Sweden could have nothing to play for except pride and may mentally check out. It would make for better drama tomorrow if that was the early game and Fin vs Can as the late game with it essentially being a semi final.

I hope the winner of the Finland vs Canada game wins the final.

 

[Beerz]

Patrick Roy would pull it in the 1st period

 

[behemolari]

Finland has The International Granlund so yes Canada cant take the risk

 

[Hazy Little Thing]

Once the US won the league should have swapped the game times so Canada and Finland know what is at stake for their game. But for the sake of ratings they were never going to not have the US playing at home in primeitme.

Play them at the same time. Soccer gets it right

 

[CanesUltimate11]

Play them at the same time. Soccer gets it right

That would be the better option and if something like comes around again or for the World Cup in 28 they should consider it if they can plan the venues accordingly.

 

[Nogatco Rd]

They should’ve scheduled the games at the same time Monday to prevent stuff like this, similar to how soccer does it.

Seems less than ideal from a ratings standpoint

 

[BullLund]

You just have to win the game in regulation. No 3v3 or shootout bullshit. Win the game legitimately, and you advance.

If neither team can do that, I fully expect USA to rest its best players while Sweden claws out a win. I'm not saying that they'll throw it away, but Sweden is a really, really good team and you have to bring your best effort to beat them. There's nothing at stake for USA here. How could they possibly motivate themselves for the type of wars we've seen between the teams so far (USA-Finland not included)?

 

[Nogatco Rd]

Didn’t Mike Keenan allegedly have his team throw a game once when he was coaching some junior team in order to secure an allegedly easier matchup in the finals?

I’ve heard it said that that’s what’s keeping him out of the HHOF. Tread lightly, Sully

 

[Hazy Little Thing]

Didn’t Mike Keenan allegedly have his team throw a game once when he was coaching some junior team in order to secure an allegedly easier matchup in the finals?

I’ve heard it said that that’s what’s keeping him out of the HHOF. Tread lightly, Sully

Mike Keenan won just 48% of the games he coached in. That’s probably what’s keeping him out of the HHOF.

 

[Summer Rose]

Neither Canada nor Finland flat out require a regulation win to make it to the championship game (though a regulation win would clinch a spot outright), but they do need to win in order to have any shot at it. For that reason I’d say no, not at all.

However, Sweden not only needs Canada vs. Finland to go to overtime, they also need a regulation win themselves assuming it does, so if they find themselves tied late in the game against the United States (with Canada vs. Finland previously having gone to overtime), then pulling their goaltender to try to push for a regulation win will be a no-brainer.

 

[behemolari]

Neither Canada nor Finland flat out require a regulation win to make it to the championship game (though a regulation win would clinch a spot outright), but they do need to win in order to have any shot at it. For that reason I’d say no, not at all.

However, Sweden not only needs Canada vs. Finland to go to overtime, they also need a regulation win themselves assuming it does, so if they find themselves tied late in the game against the United States (with Canada vs. Finland previously having gone to overtime), then pulling their goaltender to try to push for a regulation win will be a no-brainer.

they know the other game result already when they start

 

[Summer Rose]

they know the other game result already when they start

Yes, that was the entire premise of my post. Sweden will need the other game to go to overtime to even have a chance. Assuming it does, they’ll know what they have to do.

If that wasn’t made clear in my earlier post, well, that’s my fault. It’s late here, give me a break.

 

[vipera1960]

Yes, that was the entire premise of my post. Sweden will need the other game to go to overtime to even have a chance. Assuming it does, they’ll know what they have to do.

If that wasn’t made clear in my earlier post, well, that’s my fault. It’s late here, give me a break.

I don’t think either team pulls in regulation (if it’s tied). I’m more interested in when they pull their goalies in overtime. A win (in overtime) is absolutely necessary, so which team makes the most of the OT possession game will be fascinating.

 

[daver]

Seems less than ideal from a ratings standpoint

So does a potential meaningless Sweden/US game. They should have been prepared to switch game times assure SWE/US has meaning.

 

[behemolari]

Yes, that was the entire premise of my post. Sweden will need the other game to go to overtime to even have a chance. Assuming it does, they’ll know what they have to do.

If that wasn’t made clear in my earlier post, well, that’s my fault. It’s late here, give me a break.

my bad I thought Sweden game is played first

So does a potential meaningless Sweden/US game. They should have been prepared to switch game times assure SWE/US has meaning.

I love the fact Finland can eliminate Sweden just being crushed

No matter how you do it. Its win in our books!