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CAN/FIN: Would you pull the goalie if the game is tied late?

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BigRangy

BigRangy

Get well soon oliver
Mar 17, 2015
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If Canada or Finland win in regulation, they’re in the final. If either win in OT, they’re in the final unless Sweden beats the US in regulation.

If you’re coaching Canada or Finland, with the game tied late in regulation, do you go all in, pull the goalie, and see if you can control your own destiny? Or do you rely on the US to at least take Sweden to OT?

The US has nothing to play for vs Sweden and I’m sure Sweden wants to go home with at least a win.
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If Sweden beats the US in regulation to get to 5 points then 100% the goalie getting pulled might happen. Have to be on o-zone draw. But could see it happen.
Be funny as hell though (not for Sweden) if the club not pulling their goalie scores into the empty net.
 
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gump116 said:
They should’ve scheduled the games at the same time Monday to prevent stuff like this, similar to how soccer does it.
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I was kind of surprised that they made the schedule with first four games in Canada and then final three in USA.

I expected Canada and USA to play against Finland and Sweden at home, and then one country getting round robin matchup, with other getting the final plus Sweden vs. Finland.
 
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BigRangy said:
If Canada or Finland win in regulation, they’re in the final. If either win in OT, they’re in the final unless Sweden beats the US in regulation.

If you’re coaching Canada or Finland, with the game tied late in regulation, do you go all in, pull the goalie, and see if you can control your own destiny? Or do you rely on the US to at least take Sweden to OT?

The US has nothing to play for vs Sweden and I’m sure Sweden wants to go home with at least a win.
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US would likely just play everyone evenly in terms of ice time. Keep all forwards in the mid teens in ice time. Dmen, all in the high teens to low 20's. Not much they can do aside from go out and play. Not sure they'd be there to pick their opponent.

Can/Fin, you still need to just finish the game. If it goes into extra time, so be it. You just play it out. Still have a chance with an OTW. Have none if you lose in regulation.
 
No I don’t pull the goalie if it’s tied in regulation.


The U.S I imagine is going to let someone else get the net for a meaningless game for them. They also aren’t likely to have the same intensity to their game. They’d be dumb to be blocking shots and putting themselves at risk in any situation. Wouldn’t be shocked to see them lose and just be happy to get out of the game with no injuries
 
You don’t pull the goalie as the odds of an empty net goal are much higher than the odds of Sweden winning.

However, if you are going to do this, I think it would be better to pull the goalie at the end of the second period. That way, if any empty netter happens you have all of the third to get it back. If any empty netter is scored with 20 seconds left that ends the tournament for Canada.
 
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I don't think either team will pull the goalie.

They don't KNOW how the USA-Sweden game will end.

If Canada pulls their goalie they might also become the last team in the group which would look really bad when the tournament is over and people look at the group standings.

Finland on the other hand could very well think that USA might favour to play them again since they won over Finland with a lot of goals and they are supposed to be the easiest team on paper, So USA might very well be really motivated to win over Sweden.

I don't think any team will take for granted that Sweden wins in regulation , and every other result will make the winner (in either regulation or OT/SO ) between Finland and Canada go to the finals.
 
Once the US won the league should have swapped the game times so Canada and Finland know what is at stake for their game. But for the sake of ratings they were never going to not have the US playing at home in primeitme.
 
Both games should be at the same time so this doesn’t happen. Understand that is not optimal for viewership though. I can’t imagine either team pulls their goalie. 7 seconds left with an Ozone draw? Maybe… I’d only do it with 4 seconds left I think
 
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CanesUltimate11 said:
Once the US won the league should have swapped the game times so Canada and Finland know what is at stake for their game. But for the sake of ratings they were never going to not have the US playing at home in primeitme.
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I think it's more about the fact tomorrow's a holiday here in Ontario so the largest viewing audience can deal with an afternoon game.
 
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I heard both teams got scared of their anthems being booed so they decided to both forfeit the game and let us see Canada US one more time.
 
Sweden needs to win in regulation. The odds for that are +253, so the vigless odds probably are around +300 aka 25%.

If the game's tied, let's assume the chance of you winning in OT is 50%

If you pull your goalie, let's assume the chances you get scored against is 3 times as great as the chances of you scoring.

Let's assume pulling the goalie doubles your chances of scoring.

If the average goals per 60 are 3 per team, let's assume that by default, each team has a 7.5% chance to score during the last 90 seconds and that if that happens, no further goals will occur.

Not pulling goalie: 7.5% reg win, 7.5% reg loss, 42.5% ot loss, 42.5% ot win -> 7.5% win regardless, 42.5% win if sweden does not win in regulation -> 39.375% not pulling goalie

Pulling goalie: 15% reg win, 45% reg loss, 20% ot loss, 20% ot win -> 15% win regardless, 20% win if sweden does not win in regulation -> 30% pulling goalie

-> Obviously not, and you can just use common sense for it.
 
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ijuka said:
Sweden needs to win in regulation. The odds for that are +253, so the vigless odds probably are around +300 aka 25%.

If the game's tied, let's assume the chance of you winning in OT is 50%

If you pull your goalie, let's assume the chances you get scored against is 3 times as great as the chances of you scoring.

Let's assume pulling the goalie doubles your chances of scoring.

If the average goals per 60 are 3 per team, let's assume that by default, each team has a 7.5% chance to score during the last 90 seconds and that if that happens, no further goals will occur.

Not pulling goalie: 7.5% reg win, 7.5% reg loss, 42.5% ot loss, 42.5% ot win -> 7.5% win regardless, 42.5% win if sweden does not win in regulation -> 39.375% not pulling goalie

Pulling goalie: 15% reg win, 45% reg loss, 20% ot loss, 20% ot win -> 15% win regardless, 20% win if sweden does not win in regulation -> 30% pulling goalie

-> Obviously not, and you can just use common sense for it.
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Do you think you're displaying an understanding of statistics and probability here? lol
 
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