Surprisingly they have the best odds at that last playoff spot. Not sure how it works as buffalo has an extra game left.
They'll factor strength of schedule, recent play, and roster situation...some other factors as well no doubt. Buffalo's remaining schedule is about the same as Ottawa's but I think these variables will tilt things in Ottawa's favour in a data model:
Roster: Ottawa added Chychrun, Buffalo has lost Tuch to injury (not sure how long), Dahlin has been out a few games as well now. No major adds so far up to the trade deadline for Buffalo either.
Schedule: Buffalo's next 6 games are very tough, Ottawa's next 5 are not. This will work in Buffalo's favour come mid march where their remaining schedule will be slightly easier than Ottawa's, but if Ottawa builds up a cushion in the next 10 days, that will be demoralizing for Buffalo. Conversely, after playing the Blue Jackets at home on Saturday, Ottawa goes on a 5 game road trip out west after. They are the worst team in the east against the west (10-14-2).
Recent Play: Since the all-star break, Ottawa is 7-3-1, Buffalo is 5-5-0. Buffalo just lost to Columbus at home, then got smoked by Boston last night.
Misc details: Buffalo does not have a good record against eastern teams whereas Ottawa does. Ottawa has a 0.629 win% here for the season, Buffalo is 0.452. Buffalo also strangely has their home and away records in reverse of what you would normally expect to see...12-16-2 at home, 19-9-2 on the road. Not sure if that would be a factor but you gotta win at home and the road games get tougher this time of year.
None of this matters come Saturday if Ottawa loses to Columbus and Buffalo beats Tampa - if that happens, Buffalo will probably have the better odds moving forward - all based on one day.