Why do you exclude Brodie and Giordano from that group? Those are two other guys, along with Rittich, that are playing out of their career norm.
Historically, prior to this season, the combination of Gaudreau, Lindholm, Tkachuk, and Monahan have played 1,223 games - a very large sample size. They’ve scored 336 goals in those games - a combined goals per game of 0.27. (Roughly 22-23 goals per season.) This year, they’ve scored 96 goals in 188 games - a combined goals per game of 0.51. I’m looking at a sample size that is over 6.5 times larger when determining whether or not their current rates are in line with who they really are. And again, I’m sure there is some age related progression as players that is aiding their numbers. But make no mistake - there’s some luck involved and they’re bound to regress.
I’m sure that young players like Gaudreau, Hanifin, Lindholm, Tkachuk, and Monahan have improved with age. But their performance this season is past what a reasonable age-related improvement would suggest and I suspect that they will not keep this up. They’ve got 4 players with responsible for 96 goals - 55.5% of their team’s goals - and I don’t suspect that those 4 players can keep it up. I think that maybe 0.35-0.4 GPG for the four of them would be possible long term but still slightly optimistic.
My retort to that is that Bill Peters is a major wild card.
I don't know if you recall what the Flames looked like in the last two seasons under Gully. Let me remind you that our PP was near bottom of the league and we had a stupid system where on occasion, the Flames would have issues entering the zone even on a PP. Zone entries under Peters has been a huge breath of fresh air.
I won't completely disagree that a slight bit of regression may occur in terms of scoring from those young guys as the season goes on, but there's no way that they will fall back down to what it was last season and two seasons ago.
You might be looking at a so called 6.5 times sample size, but what you are seriously failing to look at, is context. The removal of Glen Gulutzan was like removing five pound weights off of all of the player's ankles who played under him. That man had the team playing a cycle styled game even though it's not designed to play a cycle styled game. He also changed the system every half season, so it was nearly like playing under a new coach every 6 months. The roster doesn't seem as slow and they seem more relaxed. Players like Lindholm and Hanifin are playing differently due to consistency of line mates and a different game plan due to different strengths and weaknesses of the roster (a luxury they were not afforded in Carolina). Playing under Peters (consistent) but on the Flames (different context) means that they are able to play in a more offensive and relaxed way, as opposed to being forced to play not to lose in Carolina (no offense to Carolina).
Our season also started with Smith posting some of the worst starter numbers in the league. There has been steady improvement from him since then. Rittich has been doing quite well so far. He mentioned in an interview that it has to do with him realizing that he wasn't playing his game last season due to nerves. I think his play is sustainable.
Brodie and Gio were posting similar numbers in 2014 before Gio's bicep injury. Both guys were horribly neutered under Gulutzan. This means that the current play should being somewhat sustainable.
The Flames may not end the season with 4-5 players over PPG. However, it's not unreasonable for the Flames to finish the season with a strong record and most of said players relatively close to PPG (ie: 0.8-0.99).
I won't argue against your points regarding SJS in terms of improvement because they seem valid, but it seems really weird that you're talking about SJS improving, but seem to refuse to acknowledge that Calgary also improved. IMO, your argument solidifies that SJS should have more consistency in general due to more experience and a strong influx of skill. Heck, Kane seems to be a Flame killer every time we face each other. The current iteration of the Flames are no longer playing in a system that doesn't suit them and has had an influx of talent. Goal tending is seemingly the biggest Achilles heel of the Flames but seems to be finding consistency. The Flames have sprinted to a higher position in the standings as of now. But the ultimate goal (the cup) is not a sprint. It's a marathon. SJS has shown that it is well geared for a marathon. The current Flames are very unknown, but the Flames should theoretically be able to run a marathon.
The game is not played on paper. There are legitimate ways to argue either the Sharks or Flames without having to resort to underhanded tearing down of the other team or minimizing the other team's accomplishments.
IMO, if the two teams meet, I think it goes to 5 or 6 games. However, I don't know who wins. SJS has shown they have a second gear for the playoffs. It is unknown if the Flames have another gear or if their second gear is even effective against SJS. That's one of the biggest advantages they have right now in that the old play books for the Flames is thrown out due to a new coach. That being said, this advantage is a double edged sword. It could swing either way.