Calder Watch : 2024-25 Season

[MrLunatik]

you sure about that clark?

I mean more than half is assists are secondary... but Shaner is wrong about them being on the PP, most are ES
He has 33 secondary assists, 10 of those are on the PP.

I'm not saying this to argue, just putting the debated facts out there.

 

[MrLunatik]

Calgary were projected to be better than the Habs too in the pre season standing. Although it is a complete different conversation due to the goaltender position being way different to evaluate than defenseman or forward.

Most people had the Flames projected to be a bottom 5 team this year, including myself.

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

This is such an unintended shot at everyone else in Montréal that was either brought in or having career or resurgent years.

San Jose has removed a number one goaltender, their top D man and two of their top 6 forwards, yet are on pace to have a 35 goal increase for and a 25 goal decrease against. Montreal’s numbers are basically on par with last season (234 goals for vs 232 last season and 250 vs 280 against last season with 4 to play)

Weird that you pace out San Jose's numbers and not Montreal's lmao.

I think what you mean is that Montreal is on pace for a 12 goal increase and a 17 goal decrease.

Or, since Hutson got first pairing minutes and moved to PP1, on pace for a 20 goal increase in GF, and a 35 goal decrease in GA.

Montreal with Hutson on the ice at 5 on 5 has a 54.7 GF%. Overall, they're at 46.5% at 5 on 5. (Apologies as I can't find anywhere tracking Montreal without Hutson on the ice).

San Jose with Celebrini on the ice at 5 on 5 is at 44.8 GF%. Overall, they're at 41.6 GF%.

 

[Patty Ice]

Absolute hilarious. Some of you are so fragile despite following one of the most storied franchises.

Anything short of a full on glaze and it's a total mischaracterization of my post. Not once did I say Hutson was a bad defender but that he was a work in progress. What a hot take! That a first year NHL defender is going to struggle to the size and strength of guys at the highest level. Which brings me to the size limitations comment. Where did I imply it was the end all for a defenseman that you strawman my argument into?

I have never disparaged Hutson and have been a casual fan of his before a lot of the Habs fans I'd wager.

 

[Jts4thgoal]

FYI.

 

[novisor]

I think Celebrini should get the Calder in my opinion. The argument for Hutson is basically "more points, (as a) dman". Montreal is a significantly better team than San Jose. Did Hutson put them over the top to get in? Probably. But that doesn't take away from the fact that Montreal has rostered a significantly more talented squad than what Celebrini has around him.

I'd pick either of these guys to be on my team. I think both will be a coin flip to make their respective Olympic teams. But for the Calder you have to give the edge to the guy who is younger, has a higher ppg, and is surrounded by a glorified AHL team, especially since they've traded away Granlund and Walman.

Not that it matters but I also bet long term, Celebrini will be the better player. Wait until you see this guy get a competent supporting cast, and continue to develop. I feel if one player is more likely to have a sophomore slump, it will be Hutson (also considering that Montreal could easily regress next year, San Jose cannot get any worse)

 

[novisor]

View attachment 1010791


View attachment 1010792
FYI.

That's a greater portion of assists being secondary for Lane, FYI.

 

[HabzSauce]

By how fiercely the Habs fans and defenseman stans have been beating the Hutson drum and minimizing Celebrini's season, I fully expect that if Celebrini wins, the Habs fans will be booing him for years to come and any time he plays poorly in big games, the defenseman stans will troll the threads.

Bro this is happening both ways. People been shitting on Hutson since beginning of season so now habs fans are just clapping back.

This thread is now just a cat fight tho lol

 

[coooldude]

Not that this should be used as proof of defensive capability but Celebrini is currently sitting at a 6% EV Defence

Thanks for that, as a Sharks fan I have to admit that Celebrini's defensive game has suffered as the season has worn on. That said he is still tenacious and a lot of his on-ice goals against have not been directly his fault (some definitely have been) and his PDO against was at least recently abnormally low (Bad goaltending/unlucky at times... Plus terrible defensive support).

Just like i said in my last post: How dishonest do you have to be to keep debating for Celebrini at this point?

"He's not outside the top 60, he's 57, gotcha!!!"

"Celebrini plays with nobody but Hutson's teammates are all having career years and their team is exponentially better than last year, WHO COULD HAVE POSSIBLY MADE THE DIFFERENCE HERE? Ah it's probably their elite coach on his first gig."

"D-man outscoring a supposedly elite center, but point totals don't paint the full picture when comparing ROLES THIS DIFFERENT LOLOL"

"Let's pretend like beating LOGAN COUTURE'S ROOKIE RECORD IS MEANINGFUL AS HE WAS A NOTORIOUS EARLY BLOOMER YEA?"

Whether Hutson or Celebrini will win the calder is hard to say with high certainty. Hype, draft placement, age, and the whims of the voters all add noise to the award process.

Which of them is having the better season of hockey is another matter. Here, advanced stats models paint a rather clear picture.

Here's Celebrini's card:

View attachment 1010751


And now Hutson's:

View attachment 1010754



If we put aside Hutson's elite offense, his defensive percentile remains higher than Celebrini's, who nevertheless gets touted as a 200ft-centreman, a reputation whose origin remains rather obscure.

If someone would like to argue that Celebrini's season is more impressive given his age, they are free to do so. If they would then like to argue this suggests Celebrini has a higher potential than Hutson, they are free to do so. They will find it harder to argue Celebrini is the superior player this season.


If someone has a sophisticated case for Celebrini, I'd like to hear it. Simply asserting this guy or that guy is better is creating more heat than light, and bringing out the worst in everyone involved.

Hutson is putting together a historic season and in my eyes he's the front runner and likely winner, and he would deserve it.

I think the pushback from sharks fans is on these "lol only 57th in points, not historic" arguments, because while not currently AS historic as Hutson, Celebrini is having a historic season for an 18yo. He's 14th all time, with 4 games remaining and a shot at 9th all time, for 18yo points. And he's third to only Crosby and McDavid in the 20th century for PPG for an 18yo.

Hutson's season is more MORE historic, but Celebrini's season is also historic.

So the case for the voters who put him first on their ballot (there will be some!) likely centers around that history, and the context of his team.

 

[Jts4thgoal]

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

...we need a poll for which posters will lose their shyte more if their guy doesn't win...

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

That's a greater portion of assists being secondary for Lane, FYI.

That's pretty normal for a defenceman.

As for your previous post, I get where you're coming from and certainly wouldn't call it an unquestionable Calder win for Lane but I still think he takes it fairly handedly.

Montreal is not a good team when he isn't on the ice (they're not San Jose-bad, but they are 5th worst in terms of GF% at 5 on 5 at 44.5%, managed to find the stats for it).

With Hutson on the ice at 5 on 5, they're 6th best in terms of GF% at 54.7%.

Celebrini also impacts his team positively (obviously, kid is a beast), but I think Hutson at this point in time does it to a greater degree while still somehow being underrated defensively.

 

[Next Best Thing]

View attachment 1010791


View attachment 1010792
FYI.

That's normal. Hutson has way more assists, Celebrini has way more goals.

 

[TheBeard]

Weird that you pace out San Jose's numbers and not Montreal's lmao.

I think what you mean is that Montreal is on pace for a 12 goal increase and a 17 goal decrease.

Or, since Hutson got first pairing minutes and moved to PP1, on pace for a 20 goal increase in GF, and a 35 goal decrease in GA.

Montreal with Hutson on the ice at 5 on 5 has a 54.7 GF%. Overall, they're at 46.5% at 5 on 5. (Apologies as I can't find anywhere tracking Montreal without Hutson on the ice).

San Jose with Celebrini on the ice at 5 on 5 is at 44.8 GF%. Overall, they're at 41.6 GF%.

Hence I said with 4 games to go in my post, but still the Sharks are pacing out to have a 60 goal improvement with a lesser lineup than the previous year vs a 30 goal improvement with a plethora of improvements (whether the inclusion of Laine and his PP numbers, Suzuki's career high in points, Caufield's career high in goals, Gallagher's resurgence for his first 20 goal season in I believe 7 years).

Context matters and while I think Hutson ultimately wins the Calder, I'm not so sure Montreal misses the playoffs without Hutson.

 

[Next Best Thing]

View attachment 1010795

View attachment 1010796

Okay and? Hutson isn't a defensive d-man

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

Context matters and while I think Hutson ultimately wins the Calder, I'm not so sure Montreal misses the playoffs without Hutson.

...they absolutely finish at least Bottom 10 in the League without Hutson...look at the team's early numbers without Hutson playing Top minutes and then with him playing Top minutes...night & day...

 

[NyQuil]

Both exciting young players. I wouldn't be disappointed if either won.

I think Wolf's team would have had to make the playoffs to win, fair or not.

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

Hence I said with 4 games to go in my post, but still the Sharks are pacing out to have a 60 goal improvement with a lesser lineup than the previous year vs a 30 goal improvement with a plethora of improvements (whether the inclusion of Laine and his PP numbers, Suzuki's career high in points, Caufield's career high in goals, Gallagher's resurgence for his first 20 goal season in I believe 7 years).

Context matters and while I think Hutson ultimately wins the Calder, I'm not so sure Montreal misses the playoffs without Hutson.

Montreal is barely making the playoffs with Hutson being far and away their best defenseman and you're not sure Montreal misses the playoffs without him?

Since the 4 Nations, there have been 2 games where Hutson has been outscored on the ice at 5 on 5, and in those games he had a 54.1 and 60.1 xGF%.

Montreal would not be sniffing the playoffs without Hutson this year, they'd be in the basement, as evidenced by their atrocious xGF% and GF% when he isn't on the ice.

Those players you mentioned don't rebound or hit those career highs without Hutson on the team.

 

[Tasty Biscuits]

I'll personally be shocked if Hutson doesn't win it. Maybe the injury cost Celebrini, but them's the breaks.

 

[TheBeard]

...they absolutely finish at least Bottom 10 in the League without Hutson...look at the team's early numbers without Hutson playing Top minutes and then with him playing Top minutes...night & day...

I'm not sold on that. The whole team has been clicking since the 4 nations. Everyone seemed to have a monster March and while Hutson played a part, I'm not convinced it wouldn't have happened anyways.

 

[TheBeard]

Those players you mentioned don't rebound or hit those career highs without Hutson on the team.

I think you're unfairly denigrating an entire roster of good players just to prop up your guy. That's fine. It doesn't matter what I think anyways.

It's not like Suzuki hadn't improved on his point total every season he's been in the league, but yeah thankfully Hutson finally let him find his game.

 

[TheBeard]

Montreal is barely making the playoffs

They're up by 8 points.

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

I'm not sold on that. The whole team has been clicking since the 4 nations. Everyone seemed to have a monster March and while Hutson played a part, I'm not convinced it wouldn't have happened anyways.

...if that's your opinion, amigo, then that's your opinion...I don't have to agree to respect it...

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

I think you're unfairly denigrating an entire roster of good players just to prop up your guy. That's fine. It doesn't matter what I think anyways.

It's not like Suzuki hadn't improved on his point total every season he's been in the league, but yeah thankfully Hutson finally let him find his game.

I'm not denigrating Suzuki at all, I'm posting verifiable stats about the status of Montreal with and without Hutson on the ice.

He's not as good as Hughes, but Montreal is similar to Vancouver in that they are two entirely different teams depending on whether or not Hutson/Hughes is on the ice.

If you look at who the most impactful player is on Montreal for nearly all those games since the 4 Nations, you'll find Hutson at the top (yes, with Suzuki often there as well).

 

[Sharp Skates]

Hutson is putting together a historic season and in my eyes he's the front runner and likely winner, and he would deserve it.

I think the pushback from sharks fans is on these "lol only 57th in points, not historic" arguments, because while not currently AS historic as Hutson, Celebrini is having a historic season for an 18yo. He's 14th all time, with 4 games remaining and a shot at 9th all time, for 18yo points. And he's third to only Crosby and McDavid in the 20th century for PPG for an 18yo.

Hutson's season is more MORE historic, but Celebrini's season is also historic.

So the case for the voters who put him first on their ballot (there will be some!) likely centers around that history, and the context of his team.

I think it's understandable to be annoyed at other fans denigrating the historic quality of Celebrini's season. There is little doubt in my mind that he has generational upside.

I also think it's reasonable to think that voters who would put him ahead of Hutson on their ballot are either wrong (since we agree Hutson is having the better season), or voting as if the Calder trophy is not purely about rewarding the best rookie season.

That said, some Habs fans' gloating in this thread has been particularly annoying. In their defense, they wasted months debating posters who were attacking Hutson, and these debates have now been settled unilaterally in the Habs fans' favor. They are taking a well-earned (if rather wearisome) victory lap on the heads of the doubters.

Both teams have solid gold players in their lap. Congrats.