Calder Watch : 2024-25 Season

Disclaimer: I still think Hutson should win it as of today, and so did JFresh fairly recently.

That said, on EV defense, As of April 7 according to JFresh model, Hutson was 19%ile in EV defense, guessing as compared to the league population of defensemen.



Meanwhile, Celebrini was 50%ile as of January, I'm guessing in comparison to all forwards. I don't have access to his updated card.



For the last f***ing time, posting EV stats when they include empty net situations is such a pedestrian move. Hutson has a massive minus from empty net situations, but is +12 at 5v5. I dare you to post the same charts for 5v5 only.
 
people here saying celebrini is not better than thornthon, hurm hurm, pardon? celebrini will be ppg as soon as next season

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I don't think anyone is arguing that Thornton had a more successful start to his career. They shouldn't if they are. It's the eclipsing of his career totals that's going to be a challenge. Your career has to do very well, for a very long time to get to 1500+.
That being said, he's off to one hell of a start.
As a Hab fan, the last time we had two good centres was 30 years ago. Seeing you guys with Celebrini and Smith as rookies the same year makes me quite jealous.
 
I'd like Wolf to win, but I know he won't... so I hope Celebrini wins as a big f*** you to people thinking the betting odds actually mean something

And yet, it was constantly posted all throughout the season to prove Celebrini was in the lead. Maybe go take a gander at the previous Calder thread before making assinine suppositions.
 
Hey it's @ORRFForever who started this. He kept posting it as proof when Celebrini was -100 and Hutson +200. Chill, you'll live longer.

Also, Hutson is on the cusp of tying/breaking two rookie dman records and that's precisely why the odds have ramped up in his favor. It didn't have any meaning when the odds were close, but with the present disparity, you'd have to be a total dunce to deny its validity.
I started all of this? You also quoted someone who is not me. ????
 
If you're going to give him a boost for being a defenseman you have to knock him for his defensive play.
I don’t even have to give him a boost for being a defenseman. His rookie season is better than Celebrini’s overall as well.

And he’s been fantastic defensively since roughly January. You don’t seem to have any idea what you’re talking about.
 
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Question for fans outside of the 2 fanbases, if you were to do a draft/redraft with Celebrini and Hutson, they're both available and your pick is up, who would you pick?
Probably the #1C.

I still feel Hutson has had a significantly more impressive rookie season, but basing the choice just on that would be as idiotic as assuming Celebrini will have a better career than Thornton just because Thornton took a couple of years to get going.

More amazing than anything is the amount of people who ran from this thread for the past couple of weeks coming out of the woodwork tonight specifically.
 
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whoever wins only won because of Canadian bias.
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Disclaimer: I still think Hutson should win it as of today, and so did JFresh fairly recently.

That said, on EV defense, As of April 7 according to JFresh model, Hutson was 19%ile in EV defense, guessing as compared to the league population of defensemen.



Meanwhile, Celebrini was 50%ile as of January, I'm guessing in comparison to all forwards. I don't have access to his updated card.


I stopped paying attention to JFresh a couple years back when they told me that TJ Brodie was twice as good defensively as Adam Fox.
 
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Question for fans outside of the 2 fanbases, if you were to do a draft/redraft with Celebrini and Hutson, they're both available and your pick is up, who would you pick?
Celebrini without a doubt, IMO more impressive season, younger, worst supporting cast.

I understand why Habs fans are excited, super impressive rookie season by Lane who will no doubt become a top tier offensive defencemen but I think they are in different classes.
 
And yet, it was constantly posted all throughout the season to prove Celebrini was in the lead. Maybe go take a gander at the previous Calder thread before making assinine suppositions.
Sorry man, you're not understanding what odds mean. Odds are the market's best guess at a future outcome. They're not people telling you your player sucks or is awesome.

I was posting the odds throughout the year as one data point on what people think might happen. Not as a "screw you" to Hutson fans, but as proof that the race wasn't "AINEC" for any single player. Now the odds show Hutson as the clear favorite, and the other evidence that is in his favor are recent polls of voters.

Funny though, when the polls of voters said Celebrini in January, and the odds said the same, a few loud Hutson fans thought the polls didn't matter and the odds were stupid. Now that they say Hutson is the favorite, all of a sudden they matter!

Arguing against (or for) odds or thinking they're dumb is just misunderstanding them.
 
Take it more personally, it might make your point stronger.

Do you know for sure that JFresh's model includes EV as empty net? And do you think that somehow impacts Hutson more than Celebrini, who is also on ice for most if not all EN goals against this year?

Hutson is still the clear front runner for the trophy. Doesn't mean he needs to be the second coming of Bobby Orr as well. He's gotten much better defensively but he's not a defensive god yet and some microstats models show that he has a lot of room for growth there. So what?

Yes it does include it. EV includes all 6v6, 5v5 or 4v4 situations and empty net is part of that because even if the goalie is pulled it's still the same number of players on each side.

Celebrini is 10gf 12ga with an empty net, while Hutson is 2gf 13ga (mostly all from the first half of the season).

At 5v5, Hutson is +12 and Celebrini is -10, so yeah, empty net will skew the stats.
 
Forward vs D though. It need to be WAY more substantial than that

We will see. Hutson is very deserving of the award and made it a race for the ages (a few guys did).

I just don't see it as a sure thing for Hutson. Bedard (who Celebrini has already outproduced) was the unanimous choice for Calder against 2 defensemen who had fantastic seasons themselves, granted not as offensively productive.
 
Hutson's to lose, at this point, especially if Montreal clinches. Too much of a factor in their return to the Playoffs.
 

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