Calder race 2016/2017 #20

[Peggy]

Ah, I see. Sorry for jumping in midway through the conversation.

I could see someone still preferring Matthews over Laine even at the 59 game mark. Matthews' overall game was (and still is) significantly better than Laine's and Matthews was putting up numbers without a single second of ice time next to anyone close to Scheifele's caliber.

Factor in that Laine hit 1PPG on the back of unsustainably high percentages (his "slump" being a textbook regression to the mean) while Matthews was riding unsustainably low percentages and maybe you can see why people would still prefer Matthews over Laine at the 59 game mark.

As an 18 year old rookie? Only McDavid was that and his nickname is McJesus

 

[Holymakinaw]

Matthews for the Calder.

And generational, too.

 

[Holymakinaw]

I agree Matthews should definatly get it as it stands.

But laine has been leading all rookies in goals and points for the majority of the year...even after his concussion...

Weird last comment there

Why is it weird?

Matthews CURRENTLY(as in, when it matters, at the end of the season) leads all rookies in goals scored and in points scored. That's not a weird comment. It's a fact.

 

[grieves]

It's really not as simple as this:

Look at Jeff Skinners rookie year where he was 18 -- he potted 31 goals.

Now compare that to Ovechkins 18 year old season..... and you come to the same conclusion.

It's isn't that black and white, you can't just assume Laine's development is going to follow the same as Ovechkins.

It ends @ Laine had a better 18 year old season than Ovechkin, that's all it tells you. But thankfully 18 year old season do not dictate the future of these players. Development isn't linear etc etc.

I can't believe you are not on my team on this one. All I've said is that you can only compare the rookie seasons, and that is the only available data, and that the other guy has the advantage of the best guess not being that good in this case, because of Laine being so young.

--

Laine is 18 who has not played his career yet. What method do you use if you want to make a guess on what his career is going to be like? Seriously, I want to know.

Let me know some examples of players you have seen play as rookies and how you compared their potential success to other established players, if you have by chance ever done that. What metrics do you tend to use, if any? Are you gut-feeling it? I'm interested in learning more about your techniques.

 

[Rob Brown]

I agree Matthews should definatly get it as it stands.

But laine has been leading all rookies in goals and points for the majority of the year...even after his concussion...

Weird last comment there

What matters is who is leading at the end of the year, not who was leading for some of the year.

 

[Narow]

Not sure if this was posted already, but Regarding Barry Trotz calling Matthews "generational" , he also includes Laine in the same group. Here is the full clip followed by some analysis on Matthews afterwards.

That was pretty nice. Should of have some clips of his puckprotection in slow mo..first time i saw that o dropped my jaw. He constatly makes small nifty plaus you wont notice in full speed. For example fighting off opponents stick with leg or quickly lifting opponents stick whole kicking the puck forward. Just insanely skilled.

Also a few others got called generational among them Laine ^^

 

[sparxx87]

No actually his point production went up after he came back from his concussion. Shows how much you've been following

You were comparing a .85 ppg compared to a .80

At the time Laine was 1 and Matthews was .87 or less

After Laine's slump he's now at .9 and Matthews is at .85
And I now have Matthews ahead of Laine because Matthews was producing while Laine was not

And generally when you can put up a point per game you're entire career(in this era anyways), you're pretty good

But he did it for 55 games? Not even a season? Barely more then half? Situations like this are why the term small sample size exists.

Kessel did score a point per game, multiple times, and outscored Toews in those years both in total points and points per game... Based on your theory, this would allude to Kessel being the better player, no?

Theory needs to be tested and the first test for yours was a colossal failure.

Laine was at an unsustainable pace. When he came back to earth it was Maurice, Ehlers, Littles and everyone else fault.

I just can't imagine what Patrik Laine might do if the world wasn't against him.

 

[Narow]

What's matter is who is leading at the end of the year, not who was leading for some of the year.

So we arw saying the same thing hence why i wrote

"As it stand it should go to Matthews"

???

I just said that to the quoted guy since he said matthews deserves it as he HAS been leading rookies in goals and points...

I could have missunderstood it tho

 

[Center Ice Scrum*]

I can't believe you are not on my team on this one. All I've said is that you can only compare the rookie seasons, and that is the only available data, and that the other guy has the advantage of the best guess not being that good in this case, because of Laine being so young.

--

Laine is 18 who has not played his career yet. What method do you use if you want to make a guess on what his career is going to be like? Seriously, I want to know.

Let me know some examples of players you have seen play as rookies and how you compared their potential success to other established players, if you have by chance ever done that. What metrics do you tend to use, if any? Are you gut-feeling it? I'm interested in learning more about your techniques.

You know what you do? Not make stupid statements. How about we accept the fact that Laine at 18 has had a wonderful season. We can watch how the rest of his career unfolds. I don't know what gives you any rights or ability to make accurate judgements about how a certain players future projects. Alex Ovechkin is someone that Laine wishes he can become at this point. He's not above him in any way shape or form. Ovechkin has been there and accomplished that, Laine has the potential. Potential doesn't always pan out. In fact, most times it doesn't pan out. For all your current projections for Laine at 18, he could flame out and become a 25G 50P player for the rest of his career. Why don't we wait until he turns 30-31 or has had 12 years/ 900+ games under his belt before we announce who was a better player? Thanks.

 

[TDK67]

As an 18 year old rookie? Only McDavid was that and his nickname is McJesus

I'm not sure what you're trying to say here. Did you miss the part about unsustainable percentages? Laine temporarily hit 1PPG after getting super hot and has since crashed back down. Most people that follow the game outside of the scoresheet were predicting this.

In which case why wouldn't a 19 year old #1C with an infinitely worse linemate situation (Hyman vs Scheifele) riding bad luck in terms of OISH% while still being close in PPG not be considered better than the 18 year old #2 W riding shotgun to a Top 10 C and getting very lucky in terms of OISH%?

Again, this stuff is obvious to anyone who understands player performance in hockey beyond points and goals.

 

[Narow]

Why is it weird?

Matthews CURRENTLY(as in, when it matters, at the end of the season) leads all rookies in goals scored and in points scored. That's not a weird comment. It's a fact.

Yes sorry i missread your comment

 

[grieves]

You know what you do? Not make stupid statements. How about we accept the fact that Laine at 18 has had a wonderful season. We can watch how the rest of his career unfolds. I don't know what gives you any rights or ability to make accurate judgements about how a certain players future projects. Alex Ovechkin is someone that Laine wishes he can become at this point. He's not above him in any way shape or form. Ovechkin has been there and accomplished that, Laine has the potential. Potential doesn't always pan out. In fact, most times it doesn't pan out. For all your current projections for Laine at 18, he could flame out and become a 25G 50P player for the rest of his career. Why don't we wait until he turns 30-31 or has had 12 years/ 900+ games under his belt before we announce who was a better player? Thanks.

I'm not saying Laine is the more established player, for sure he is not. He is projecting to be the better player at this point, is what I'm saying. I hate the notion of "don't guess because that is not nice to the other players". Blegh.

 

[Kelly]

I can't believe you are not on my team on this one. All I've said is that you can only compare the rookie seasons, and that is the only available data, and that the other guy has the advantage of the best guess not being that good in this case, because of Laine being so young.

--

Laine is 18 who has not played his career yet. What method do you use if you want to make a guess on what his career is going to be like? Seriously, I want to know.

Let me know some examples of players you have seen play as rookies and how you compared their potential success to other established players, if you have by chance ever done that. What metrics do you tend to use, if any? Are you gut-feeling it? I'm interested in learning more about your techniques.

Well for one, I'd stay away from comparing current players to the likes of Lemieux, and greats of that ilk (not aying you have). Even Ovechkin is a little crazy because he's going to be a first ballot HOF'er and arguably the greatest goal scorer ever. Laine has had a great rookie year, but to think he's going to stay on the same path as a guy like Ovechkin is literally the best possibility. Fact of the matter, it usually doesn't happen that way. There is no fool proof way of comparing players 10 years apart in reality. In my eyes it'd be more fair to compare Ovechkins actually rookie year to Laines, even though it was his D+2 season, not his fault there was a lockout.

You should just end it as "Laine has had a better 18 year old season than Ovechkin did" that's really impressive enough, let Laine prove that he deserves to be talked about in the same sentence as Ovy in the following years. Everybody knows he's talented enough. Just my opinion.

Honestly, I haven't even followed the conversation chain, so if that's all you said then I do apologize. Laine has had the better 18 year old season, but Ovy came over in his 19 year one and lit the league on fire. You can't just assume Laine is going to do that next year.

 

[sparxx87]

I'm not saying Laine is the more established player, for sure he is not. He is projecting to be the better player at this point, is what I'm saying. I hate the notion of "don't guess because that is not nice to the other players". Blegh.

Projecting by who? Psycho-dad?

Didn't we get into the difference between projecting and guessing?

Guess. You're guessing Laine will be better.

 

[BlueBaron]

What you are saying is "don't compare" ?

So Ovechkin is better if we don't compare the players at the same age?

And yeah, damn Matthews with his goals. Annoying, but hey, what can you do.

You're right, please show us Laine's KHL numbers at 18. I bet his numbers do not touch Ovechkin's so Ovie must be better!

That may be one of the stupidest arguments I have ever heard. What league you are in does not determine how good you are.

 

[Narow]

Cant we stop making any types of predictions guesses or projections? Thanks

It is a different culture here. Comparing a promising rookie in any shape or form to an legend or established player is shunned! Can someone explain why that is!

For me i think its a culture shock.

Here a promising rookie being compared to a legend is a good thing its what rookies aspire to become.

Its nothing like "x must first deserve to be mentioned in the same sentence as y"..

Its an honor getting compared to an all time great in any way shape or form. For for the legend (now people aspire to become as great) and the rookie who now is getting compared to a legend.

You guys seem very sensitive about your greats and put them on some type of pedistal where they are untouchable and a bit isolated.

I mean no harm by this its just very....different and i am wondering why?

 

[BlueBaron]

Cant we stop making any types of predictions guesses or projections? Thanks

It is a different culture here. Comparing a promising rookie in any shape or form to an legend or established player is shunned! Can someone explain why that is!

For me i think its a culture shock.

Here a promising rookie being compared to a legend is a good thing its what rookies aspire to become.

Its nothing like "x must first deserve to be mentioned in the same sentence as y"..

Its an honor getting compared to an all time great in any way shape or form. For for the legend (now people aspire to become as great) and the rookie who now is getting compared to a legend.

You guys seem very sensitive about your greats and put them on some type of pedistal where they are untouchable and a bit isolated.

I mean no harm by this its just very....different and i am wondering why?

Nothing wrong with comparisons when they make sense: his release is like Ovechkin, he skates like etc etc.

But when you say an 18 year old who has not even hit 40 goals yet (though he still could) is better than one of thee greatest goal scorers of all time you come off as a bit foolish.

 

[Saidin]

Who's looking forward to the pissing match next year between Matthews/Laine?

 

[TIGERCOOL]

I'm not saying Laine is the more established player, for sure he is not. He is projecting to be the better player at this point, is what I'm saying. I hate the notion of "don't guess because that is not nice to the other players". Blegh.

No... He is not. Ovechkin is the greatest modern goalscorer and in the conversation for greatest goalscorer of all time (era adjusted scoring). Laine will be very hard pressed to break 40 goals this season. Ovechkin has broken 50 goals 7 times, one of which was his rookie season. Oh, and he also scored 65 goals one season. When Laine reaches 50 we can maybe mention him in the same breath as the great 8. If he gets there 3 times in his first 5 seasons maybe we can start looking at them as comparables​.

Projecting any player as being a BETTER goalscorer than Ovi is something you just don't do. That needs to be earned. His impact on the game is damn near immeasurable. Take off the homer shades and show some respect for one of the games greats.

 

[ImpartialNHLfan]

I'm not saying Laine is the more established player, for sure he is not. He is projecting to be the better player at this point, is what I'm saying. I hate the notion of "don't guess because that is not nice to the other players". Blegh.

Aren't you the one who "projected" Laine to be the next Mario? Did you move on to Ovie now?

 

[Center Ice Scrum*]

You're right, please show us Laine's KHL numbers at 18. I bet his numbers do not touch Ovechkin's so Ovie must be better!

That may be one of the stupidest arguments I have ever heard. What league you are in does not determine how good you are.

Not to mention, Russian league back in the day were impossible for offensive players to thrive in. You just didn't see any big time scorers in those leagues. One guy in that league that year finished over ppg. On Ovi's team, their top player had 7 more points in 5 more games. And that player happened to be 32 years of age.

To do a basic stupid comparison to Laine. There are currently 9 players in the NHL over ppg. Laine is 3rd leading scorer on his team and the top scorer has played 6 more games and has scored 16 more points. And that player happens to be 24 years of age, right now.

Tell me my argument here for Ovi being better at 18 is worse than some of the Laine fans' arguments.

 

[Kelly]

Cant we stop making any types of predictions guesses or projections? Thanks

It is a different culture here. Comparing a promising rookie in any shape or form to an legend or established player is shunned! Can someone explain why that is!

For me i think its a culture shock.

Here a promising rookie being compared to a legend is a good thing its what rookies aspire to become.

Its nothing like "x must first deserve to be mentioned in the same sentence as y"..

Its an honor getting compared to an all time great in any way shape or form. For for the legend (now people aspire to become as great) and the rookie who now is getting compared to a legend.

You guys seem very sensitive about your greats and put them on some type of pedistal where they are untouchable and a bit isolated.

I mean no harm by this its just very....different and i am wondering why?

There is comparing and then there is projecting that he's going to be better based off a limited sample size, or cherry picked statistics. Two huge differences.

I don't think anybody would care if you compare parts of their game, but when you say **** like "look at their 18 year old seasons, Laine projects to be better" obviously people will take offense because it's not that simple and the hockey actually needs to be played.

We've seen many players come in and have amazing rookie years and then come back the next and not be able to follow it up. I'm not saying this is going to happen to Laine, but there are tons of more realistic comparable than arguably the greatest goal scorer ever, or Mario.

 

[Narow]

Nothing wrong with comparisons when they make sense: his release is like Ovechkin, he skates like etc etc.

But when you say an 18 year old who has not even hit 40 goals yet (though he still could) is better than one of thee greatest goal scorers of all time you come off as a bit foolish.

Well obviously ...that i agree on. Skill you donr compare untill it is justified.

However for example i posted some numbers that i found comparablw from ovi rookie season and Laines. Posted them cus i thought it was cool there was anything that was comparable between them.
Strickly production wise, said nothing about skill playstyle or anything just posted the numbers saying how cool it was.

All hell broke loose suddently some drunken brovechkin guy comes from nowhere attacking me for having compared them and many people joined him thinking i have some agenda or something or hint something at skill level.

I have never witnessed this elsewhere. I thought canadians were cool. What is thst about?

What you say and what happends here was not correct.

 

[Center Ice Scrum*]

Well obviously ...that i agree on. Skill you donr compare untill it is justified.

However for example i posted some numbers that i found comparablw from ovi rookie season and Laines. Posted them cus i thought it was cool there was anything that was comparable between them.
Strickly production wise, said nothing about skill playstyle or anything just posted the numbers saying how cool it was.

All hell broke loose suddently some drunken brovechkin guy comes from nowhere attacking me for having compared them and many people joined him thinking i have some agenda or something or hint something at skill level.

I have never witnessed this elsewhere. I thought canadians were cool. What is thst about?

What you say and what happends here was not correct.

Yes you are the real victim here. I will admit though, your numbers were cool. It's nice to see how close they are 5 vs. 5. Now did you know that Ovechkin's best linemate and teammate had less than 60 points that rookie season? Did you also know that Ovechkin single handedly carried his team offensively? Did you take that big gap into account for 5 vs. 5 production? Because the numbers don't look quite as impressive when you look at the fact that Laine has a PPG center for half the season and he's got his other linemates who are sitting around 40-60 points. I'm sure Laine didn't put up all those 5 vs 5 points on solo rushes. No? For your cool numbers that you cherry pick. How about you do the actual research and put up something of good value. I can look at numbers all day but they're meaningless when they don't prove anything of significance.

Alex Ovechkin was the Washington Capitals for many seasons. He was similar to what LeBron James was in Cleveland. Without him, the Capitals were a lottery team. Heck, even with him, they were still a lottery team. Laine couldn't carry his line, let alone carry a team.

 

[Binister]

Alex Ovechkin broke into the league at 19 years of age. He was the leading scorer on his team with 52 goals and 106 points. The second best scorer on that team was Danny Zubrus at 57 points and 23 goals.

Let that sink in. He almost put up 2x as many points as the second best guy on the team.

Patrik Laine isn't even the best player on his team. He has Scheifele and Wheeler who are both better players helping him along. I know you are choosing to be ignorant, and that's perfectly okay. But don't go out there pretending like you know what you're talking about.

What kind of BS are you throwing here? Based on your post you have not watched a single Jets game. How does Wheeler help Laine when they haven't even played together for most of the season? Scheifele and Laine boosted their production as a pair. Don't bash around and throw random comments, it ruins your image.