If Washington ends up with a top 10 pick, there’s no doubt in my mind Michkov will be a top 10 pick. They are the exact type of team I would expect to draft him…alternatively, if the Caps have the opportunity to draft Michkov and pass…kid will slip very far.
C Will Smith - San Jose Sharks , NHL(2023, 4th, SJS)
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Fantomas
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I wouldn't be surprised to see Chicago take the chance on Michkov to be honest. They're a long ways away from being competitive again. Might not even be a playoff hopeful by the time Michkov's KHL contract expires. Definitely a team that can afford to wait. I doubt Michkov drops too far. Could still see Smith ahead of him but I think at some point Michkov's upside is too high to pass up.
BB88
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How much of a difference do you see with Smith vs Michkovs offensive upside?
Smith is pretty much elite in every offensive category& been developing at a very high rate
I think it's a tough thing to gauge and I know you asked me this in the other thread, which is part of why I haven't answered. As I said in that thread I'm not a pro scout and I've only engaged in as much personal scouting as I have because Anaheim is picking between 1 and 3. So I'll admit I'm a little behind on my review of Smith footage and I haven't had time to watch the U18s during the day, but I've read the reports. He's likened a lot to Zegras and Cooley as a guy that oozes skill, creativity, and hockey IQ. I know there's been some concerns about his compete level so I think that's left a lot of people feeling like he might be a less safe option than Leonard, Sale, Benson, Reinbacher, etc. But I think you can't argue with his U18 performance as his last dig before the draft.
I'm on record arguing that the U18 isn't the be all end all though and I still think that's true. With Michkov, he is, to me, unquestionably in that next tier below Bedard with Fantilli and Carlsson. Where I think Smith might demonstrate more creativity with his stick handling, it's hard to argue against a guy with visibly high IQ and vision in arguably the second best men's league in the world. Objectively speaking, I think there's plays of the Michkov footage I've reviewed where it's just basic point and shoot or point and pass with time and space Michkov has that wasn't forced by the player but just happened to be available based on timing and the opposing players' positioning. But he also has a really good sense of where to go on the ice, when to feed the puck off, who to feed it to, shot timing, shot placement, shooting position. There's no question to me that with time and experience he can be an elite talent in this league.
So if you're asking the guy who has spent hours scouring the internet for Carlsson, Fantilli, and Michkov footage because one of them are the most likely to be drafted by my childhood team and a guy that hasn't focused on the rest of the pack as much, I'd say I just don't know yet. Given Smith's stellar performance at the U18, I think it merits me giving some spare time to watch his available footage. I'm inclined to say that Smith, based on what I know about him, tracks to be a Zegras-like player and could well end up better than Zegras while Michkov could be a Kucherov like talent if all goes perfectly. I just don't know as of today without more review. And even with the benefit of review, there's plenty of post draft factors that influence how a player develops out. And I'm just going to admit now that once the Ducks get their guy I'm just not going to track the rest of the players as much after their draft.
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BB88
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To start I again want to say I’be been a vocal Michkov at 4 guy but I find the bolded pretty unfair.
You have the absolutely max ceiling listed for Michkov and okay result for Smith when Michkov is the one with more risk attached and a clearly clearly higher projected ceiling in your post.
Even I admit that Michkov has real issues in his game that he absolutely needs to address& European leagues are much more forgiving to hide them.
He looks very small on the ice and as major has multiple times pointed out he really struggles with speed, atleast at the mens level.
His ceiling is sky high as you say but hes clearly the toughest to project.
Smith has had a really strong draft season and just seems to be getting better, so Id put his perfect case scenario as way higher than what Zegras is.
Hands, vision, passing are all top notch on this draft, but similar issues than Michkov has, has to get clearly stronger and quicker.
& at 4 nobody is going to go for all around game its going to be all about the offense in the end so with that in mind would be fun to get some reads on how others see the gap between Michkov and Smith
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BB88
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Well, in fairness I don't think Zegras has come close to his upside yet either. 65 points on a miserable roster with an even more miserable coach as a sophomore I don't think it's unreasonable to see Zegras capping out as an 85-95 point player down the line so long as scoring stays up. It wasn't an insult as much as it was, perhaps, an incomplete comparison. So in my mind if we're comparing upside that you can track and see in the NHL versus speculative upside, even saying Smith will definitely be better is expecting him to be a 90+ point player and even though those are more common these days than usual, you're not getting multiple every draft. There's no doubt this draft appears stacked, but the real value becomes clearer over time.
For me, as my admittedly uninformed perspective has it, I value Michkov's capacity to do what he's doing against men in a premier hockey league more favorably than what Smith does. The quality of competition is on a different level. So where guys like Michkov and Carlsson have noticeable things to work on, it's noticeable because the grown men they're playing are pushing those weaker points to the forefront where a guy like Smith has younger and less capable competition. That's not to say I think playing against juniors is bar against becoming a superstar. McDavid, Bedard, Crosby, etc, are proof enough of that. It just makes it harder to compare because we aren't seeing Smith against grown men. And while I'd agree that Michkov having the best KHL season by an 18 year old blinds some to the areas of his game that could use improvement or refinement it can't be ignored that it's the best season by an 18 year old in that league, ever.
I certainly feel, from the little I have seen, that Smith has the tools to be an elite player. But on the surface, what he's done with the USNTDP puts him in line with guys like J. Hughes, Cooley, Zegras, Caufield and Boldy. Like I said, I need to watch more of his footage to get a better individual sense of how he separates from that pack so right now I'm still not the guy to ask. But there has to be a reason the next tier of guys behind Bedard is considered to be populated by three players and that almost none of the big name scouting services/public figures have Smith in that group or think he merits looking at the second tier like it's four viable guys.
BB88
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Michkov has a crazy ceiling and that’s why I’d take him at 4, just too intriguing.
But he’s the riskiest of picks and hardest to project.
As a European hockey fan I know European leagues are more forgiving with players having Michkov weaknessess.
Plenty of people ask how he was able to put up the points he was and there lies the answer, skating is just not going to stop you from producing the same it would in the NHL, or the lack of size. He could never play this style in the NHL and be succesfull, he shouldn’t anyways see NHL for 2 seasons.
As a pro player Carlsson is way ahead, Michkov not once played at the level Carlsson did late in the season.
With Columbus being the favourite for 4 it’s really going to come down to Smith vs Michkov most likely.
Well I think you can make that argument against Carlsson too. And Fantilli. Starting with Carlsson, if he doesn't get better at using his size to create more separation as he navigates the offensive zone, he's going to get suffocated under standard day to day NHL play. If Fantilli doesn't start utilizing his teammates more often and more effectively outside of tape to tape playmaking set ups he's going to be turnover prone.
But I say these things in full knowledge that these are resolveable/coachable flaws with development, experience and adaptation. I don't see why Fantilli and Carlsson can achieve that but it will be a bigger struggle for Michkov. Sure he's a smaller guy, but you kind of have to look at all of the big 3 and, sure, even Smith like they're starting ahead of most of their peers in this draft class. None of them, not even Bedard, could be plopped into the current NHL playoffs and hit the ground running with no or minimal flaws. That's what I mean when I say that the three years following the draft are more important than how they seem to project pre-lottery. And that will include Michkov who will have three years to pick up better habits and new approaches to dominate the KHL.
For me, when I started to play catch up on personal evaluation I did so with the understanding that Bedard is and has been considered a generational tier first overall draft prospect while guys like Michkov, Fantilli, and Carlsson are viewed as though they could have easily gone first overall in some of the weaker drafts of the past decade. Because Anaheim finished last and guaranteed themselves no lower than third overall, because I didn't start actually trying to study footage until they locked that in, and because Smith has uniformly been looked at as being a tier below the "big 4", I didn't really do much concentrated study on him. But if Columbus and Anaheim had swapped places in the standings you can bet I definitely would have by now. What I'm saying is as of now I can't give a second opinion as to whether Columbus should take Michkov or Smith at 4. But since we've talked about it enough and we still have two weeks to the lottery I'd be more than happy to take a harder look at Smith and give you my personal unprofessional opinion when I'm done.
scoutman1
Twitter - scoutman33
if Russia right now was not so iffy well Michkov would be right there with Bedard as 1A and B with Bedard probably edging him out...only thing holding him back is the Russian factor and lack of viewing this year...Mitchkov is generational himself and probably best Russian since Ovechkin.
BB88
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Because Michkov is small and not an elite skater.
Both Fantilli& Carlsson have superior physical tools compared to Michkov and make them easier to project.
There’s plenty of clips to show the size/skating concern with Michkov.
& with how much NHL runs through the middle it makes Michkovs job that much harder.
You just don’t trade true franchise C’s to any winger, they just make that much bigger impact.
Back to Smith I’ll watch every shift that I can from him the rest of the tourney.
All right @BB88 I watched about 15 minutes of footage I could find so far. I'm betting there's more and it doesn't comprise full game watches the way a pro scout would but here's my takeaway so far. I wouldn't say that Smith exactly fits the mold as a Cooley or Zegras clone but there's definitely the imprint of a player in the NTDP program that encourages creativity, experimentation and puck skill. If there's an NTDP comparable, it's Zegras.
Where Zegras tries all kinds of flashy moves with how he distributes, retains, and fires the puck, he stick handles (and this applies to his NTDP play from how I remember it) much quicker, tighter, and with a more natural flow. Smith's signature move is a borderline obsession with wide stickhandle dekes between left and right right or from a toe drag to his opposite side. But what I noticed is, Smith seems to uniformly start with pretty ordinary puck controlling as he moves through the offensive zone until he's within range of a defender. Then he slows down almost to a halt as he performs a very deliberate and very wide stick handle. What jumped out to me immediately is this may work just fine against the NTDP's opponents (who, from what I saw, often ended up just puck watching or going for reaching poke checks where they don't have the distance or time to execute the defensive play) but it's not going to fly nearly as often in the NHL where there's less time and space and higher defensive pressure. Smith really needs to rethink his puck handling approach if he wants to avoid persistent stick checks and stick lifts. And it wouldn't hurt if he could develop out of the need to slow down before a deke attempt. When you're looking at skill guys in the NHL they typically pull off their maneuvers at a maintained speed and with a lot more natural flow. When I watch Smith attempt his moves it looks like he really needs to think harder about what he's doing. For a guy obsessed with dangling, I view this as an area that will need improvement going forward
It's not all bad though. Don't get me wrong. The kid clearly has very high IQ and superb vision. He'll benefit from the versatility of being perfectly willing to make a smart set up pass just as often as he's willing shoot it for his goal count. He seems to have a good sense for when the situation calls for a pass over a shot and vis versa. His shot seems to be good. I don't know that I'd say he has the most dangerous release in terms of speed and strength but he looks to be able to pop off a wrist or snap shot from multiple release points which is a good sign for his future as an offensive threat.
Turning back to the negatives though, it does seem like he's prone to turnovers as he's often taking time to experiment different potentially flashy plays which I think tends to plague USNTDP graduates to different degrees (I go back to the Zegras comparison because while he is capable of making dazzling plays, for every one that succeeds there's four that don't at all). One of the videos I watched had an advanced stats breakdown and his pass attempt rate to successful
pass conversion is pretty low compared to his peers.
Another thing I noticed is in none of the footage I found did I ever see Smith engaging along the boards or using his body to play defense. Didn't see much by ways of defense at all. Granted, I'm missing a lot of footage because I'm just working with what is available to me but based on the reports I've read, it seems like his involvement on the defensive side of the game is pretty lacking. Oppose this to someone like Fantilli who I saw plenty of examples of him actively engaged in forechecking with smart stick lifts and being unafraid to battle along the boards, I think this is something Smith will need to work on.
In a nutshell if we're looking at whether the big 4 should actually be a big 5 inclusive of Smith, I think there's no question that Smith will be a good pick for whoever ends up with him. Do I think he's on the level to compete with Fantilli, Carlsson, and Michkov? No. I know full well the USNTDP has churned out a lot of NHL talent lately and Cooley is poised to join that group of young stars. I'm not saying he can't be in the same echelon as the Zegras', Caufield, Boldy, Cooley group or better but I think when you're comparing to the big next three after Bedard you have two guys that were superb in adult leagues and one guy that led NCAA in scoring as an 18 year old, which is Smith's next stop after the draft. While Smith is clearly dominant in NTDP competition, he strikes me as the kind of guy who leverages his strengths and flaws to feast on high schoolers who just aren't up to snuff defensively. While I don't agree that he lacks compete, I don't think he has the compete level of the "next big 3" and certainly nowhere near the compete level of Bedard. It's more of a question of pace given the quality of competition.
Smith is able to thrive because he doesn't have defenders challenging his space and/or employing sufficiently challenging stick work to limit Smith's options. But I don't think his pace is where it needs to be to really excel when the quality of competition ramps up. I'm not ruling out his ability to adapt his playstyle against tougher competition and he seems to be doing more than fine at the WJC U18. It's just that personally, as I'm watching him I think he has to adapt more about his game to maintain the kind of skill based, dangle-focused hockey he's naturally inclined to play and his execution level when it comes to passing definitely needs work. The objective numbers bear that out.
Again, I'm not a pro scout. And I'm not discounting that Smith could figure out what it takes to thrive in the NHL. But as I've watched a handful of example clips, I'm of the opinion that he needs to work on a fair number of elements in his game to get there. Just my non-professional, mostly uninterested view as a fan of a team that's probably not going to draft him. I don't think people who have him outside the top 10 are being fair to Smith but at the same time, if Anaheim picked him at 3rd overall instead of Fantilli or Carlsson, I'd be pretty upset.
Where Zegras tries all kinds of flashy moves with how he distributes, retains, and fires the puck, he stick handles (and this applies to his NTDP play from how I remember it) much quicker, tighter, and with a more natural flow. Smith's signature move is a borderline obsession with wide stickhandle dekes between left and right right or from a toe drag to his opposite side. But what I noticed is, Smith seems to uniformly start with pretty ordinary puck controlling as he moves through the offensive zone until he's within range of a defender. Then he slows down almost to a halt as he performs a very deliberate and very wide stick handle. What jumped out to me immediately is this may work just fine against the NTDP's opponents (who, from what I saw, often ended up just puck watching or going for reaching poke checks where they don't have the distance or time to execute the defensive play) but it's not going to fly nearly as often in the NHL where there's less time and space and higher defensive pressure. Smith really needs to rethink his puck handling approach if he wants to avoid persistent stick checks and stick lifts. And it wouldn't hurt if he could develop out of the need to slow down before a deke attempt. When you're looking at skill guys in the NHL they typically pull off their maneuvers at a maintained speed and with a lot more natural flow. When I watch Smith attempt his moves it looks like he really needs to think harder about what he's doing. For a guy obsessed with dangling, I view this as an area that will need improvement going forward
It's not all bad though. Don't get me wrong. The kid clearly has very high IQ and superb vision. He'll benefit from the versatility of being perfectly willing to make a smart set up pass just as often as he's willing shoot it for his goal count. He seems to have a good sense for when the situation calls for a pass over a shot and vis versa. His shot seems to be good. I don't know that I'd say he has the most dangerous release in terms of speed and strength but he looks to be able to pop off a wrist or snap shot from multiple release points which is a good sign for his future as an offensive threat.
Turning back to the negatives though, it does seem like he's prone to turnovers as he's often taking time to experiment different potentially flashy plays which I think tends to plague USNTDP graduates to different degrees (I go back to the Zegras comparison because while he is capable of making dazzling plays, for every one that succeeds there's four that don't at all). One of the videos I watched had an advanced stats breakdown and his pass attempt rate to successful
pass conversion is pretty low compared to his peers.
Another thing I noticed is in none of the footage I found did I ever see Smith engaging along the boards or using his body to play defense. Didn't see much by ways of defense at all. Granted, I'm missing a lot of footage because I'm just working with what is available to me but based on the reports I've read, it seems like his involvement on the defensive side of the game is pretty lacking. Oppose this to someone like Fantilli who I saw plenty of examples of him actively engaged in forechecking with smart stick lifts and being unafraid to battle along the boards, I think this is something Smith will need to work on.
In a nutshell if we're looking at whether the big 4 should actually be a big 5 inclusive of Smith, I think there's no question that Smith will be a good pick for whoever ends up with him. Do I think he's on the level to compete with Fantilli, Carlsson, and Michkov? No. I know full well the USNTDP has churned out a lot of NHL talent lately and Cooley is poised to join that group of young stars. I'm not saying he can't be in the same echelon as the Zegras', Caufield, Boldy, Cooley group or better but I think when you're comparing to the big next three after Bedard you have two guys that were superb in adult leagues and one guy that led NCAA in scoring as an 18 year old, which is Smith's next stop after the draft. While Smith is clearly dominant in NTDP competition, he strikes me as the kind of guy who leverages his strengths and flaws to feast on high schoolers who just aren't up to snuff defensively. While I don't agree that he lacks compete, I don't think he has the compete level of the "next big 3" and certainly nowhere near the compete level of Bedard. It's more of a question of pace given the quality of competition.
Smith is able to thrive because he doesn't have defenders challenging his space and/or employing sufficiently challenging stick work to limit Smith's options. But I don't think his pace is where it needs to be to really excel when the quality of competition ramps up. I'm not ruling out his ability to adapt his playstyle against tougher competition and he seems to be doing more than fine at the WJC U18. It's just that personally, as I'm watching him I think he has to adapt more about his game to maintain the kind of skill based, dangle-focused hockey he's naturally inclined to play and his execution level when it comes to passing definitely needs work. The objective numbers bear that out.
Again, I'm not a pro scout. And I'm not discounting that Smith could figure out what it takes to thrive in the NHL. But as I've watched a handful of example clips, I'm of the opinion that he needs to work on a fair number of elements in his game to get there. Just my non-professional, mostly uninterested view as a fan of a team that's probably not going to draft him. I don't think people who have him outside the top 10 are being fair to Smith but at the same time, if Anaheim picked him at 3rd overall instead of Fantilli or Carlsson, I'd be pretty upset.
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WarriorofTime
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Smith and his line are slapping these little countries around like they're Chris Rock
Seb
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This post is exactly why I don't want the Habs to pick this guy.
What are some achievable gains that Michkov can make from here?
Like when I watch Carlsson I can see that he needs to add flex to his ankles / knees / hips to get lower in his stride to increase his quickness in the small areas. And that he has a lot of room on his frame to add that strength. With Michkov I look at him and I don't know what the next steps are. This is a genuine question, I'd like you to tell me if you have something in mind.
I also see that go slow wide stickhandling approach all the time from Smith. I'm not as sure that pro defenders will easily handle him though. It's still an open question for me. I do file him in the risky pick category (alongside Michkov).
WeThreeKings
Demidov is a HAB
He means the Will Smith puns.
Paragraph 1: I think Michkov will naturally have to get a better sense for finding space in a tighter and faster NHL on smaller NHL ice. And this is especially true because odds are he isn't going to get much taller than he already is so unless he builds out like a tank he's really going to need to increase his foot speed to avoid contact and physical battles. I think his puck handling is fine and right on track since he doesn't rely on excessive technique to maintain possession the way a player in the Kane, Datsyuk mold would. I also think as of today is shot is good but not great. Good aim, certainly, but to really challenge NHL goalies to get high goal totals I think he either needs more raw power behind his shot or a snappier release, or both. But that's gonna come with time I would think.
Paragraph 2: yeah I mean I know my review sounded harsh. The concern that the stick handles require concerted focus and don't flow naturally is valid but I think as long as he's still regularly attempting these moves, the natural flow can organically be developed. As to his penchant for wide stick handles, I didn't mean to say it's never going to work, but given that I didn't see a single instance where he used soft touches to execute tighter dekes and he seemed to exclusively roll with the wider radius stick handles...personally I feel like the NHL has never been at a higher level with respect to stick checks and lifts that you could expect from players on the top line right down to the fourth line especially with the league being faster on aggregate.
If Smith doesn't adapt his stickhandling approach, yeah it'll work here and there against a mistimed poke or against a defender that's generally caught off guard, but his current style gives defenders more time and space to disrupt his puck control. At least projecting things out to the NHL level. I
If he was built like Carlsson projects to be in his prime I think a player like that can get away with it more often because usually their bigger size opens up separation from defenders who don't want to engage physically (I'm going back to personal/biased observations but Getzlaf was a master at the wide stick handle because even if a defender got in tight and challenged the puck handle he could pivot his body to protect the puck and reset). Otherwise, Smith would need much higher speed to create that separation needed to execute such wide stick moves effectively and as of now I don't see that his speed is all that high relative to his on ice competition.
It's something he can certainly adapt but hopefully it's something he identifies personally or a coach lets him know about.
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OgeeOgelthorpe
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Very solid breakdown and I agree with most of it. What I don't agree with is Smith's placement as the "best of the rest" in the draft for two of the reasons you give; specifically, he doesn't compete hard on the boards or in the defensive zone. That work is left to Ryan Leonard on his line. If Leonard isn't on that line I think that has a much more negative impact on Smith's scoring than the on Leonard's. The other is Smith's trying moves without moving his feet much of the time and how that won't fly as much in college, and it certainly won't fly in the NHL.
I'm dating myself here, but he reminds me so damn much of Tim Connolly as a prospect. Same strengths, same flaws. And I think that in the NHL Smith becomes a very similar player as a playmaking 2C that you wonder why he can't put it all together more consistently and be a superstar.
I don't necessarily think he's the best of the rest. The guy I looked into this for views the most viable option at 4th overall as being between Michkov and Smith. I'm happy to admit I haven't watched enough of the guys considered to be in that third tier between picks 5 and 14 to form an opinion. What I meant was, and probably didn't articulate well is that if the question is if Smith belongs in that next tier behind Bedard with Fantilli, Michkov, and Carlsson, I would say the answer is no. I agree with your impressions based on my limited viewings.
OgeeOgelthorpe
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By "best of the rest" I meant best after the big 4, particularly the #5 to #10 range. I've read a lot of banter on these boards about Smith vs. Benson as the #5 pick. Personally I'd take Reinbacher over either of them.
I've seen about 12 or so NTDP games (I really need to start journaling which games I watch) and the impressions you stated are things I noted just about every damn time Smith was on the ice. I think this is a prospect that is going to take a longer time developing than people are comfortable with a top 5 or top 10 pick taking as a result of his fundamental flaws.
Now this isn't to say he can't become a good NHLer, but it will definitely take the right development program and the right coach to bring out the best in him. The teams that are in range to select him don't strike me as the types of teams that are great with their prospects, though. (Montreal, Philly and Arizona. Yikes.)
