C/W Jordan Gavin - Tri-City Americans, WHL (2025 Draft)

Seems to have pretty good numbers at his age, can't testify to his play as I haven't seen him in a while. Any idea why he isn't listed as a 2025 top prospect on EP, there are quite a few listed, is that from it not being updated? Or is it his ceiling?
EP doesn't update things as timely as I would like, but their database is so large and they update certain things that other sites wouldn't, so I give them some leeway.
 
Last season 54 points in 62 games.
so far this season 55 points in 53 games.

I hope he gets to play with better players next season, in his draft year.
- easily can hit 100+ points, though he might hit that with or without
 
He's a perimeter player. Yes he's skilled but doesn't get into the dirty areas or fight off checks.

Incidentally he hasn't taken a penalty in 2 years. You could take that as a positive or negative.

He's a very high-IQ guy who is positionally pretty sound (and kills penalties regularly) but he's just totally flatlined since being the #2 overall pick in the bantam draft and scoring 54 points in his draft-3. He's undersized, he isn't really a burner speed-wise (although his edgework can be pretty elegant at times), nothing really projects much. He can get by as a 'pretty good' WHL player based on his smarts and hands but it's really hard to level up to more than that unless you really stick your nose in and get to the dirty areas and compete.

At this point I'd be somewhat surprised if he's drafted at all in 2025, especially as a 2016-born who has less runway to work with.

That said, his ES production is actually pretty decent. His PP production this year is a bit shocking (0G 5A) given his very PP-friendly skillset relative to this level and huge PP production in prior years. TC has had an atrocious PP ... will be interesting to see if that changes in Brandon.
 
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He's a very high-IQ guy who is positionally pretty sound (and kills penalties regularly) but he's just totally flatlined since being the #2 overall pick in the bantam draft and scoring 54 points in his draft-3. He's undersized, he isn't really a burner speed-wise (although his edgework can be pretty elegant at times), nothing really projects much. He can get by as a 'pretty good' WHL player based on his smarts and hands but it's really hard to level up to more than that unless you really stick your nose in and get to the dirty areas and compete.

At this point I'd be somewhat surprised if he's drafted at all in 2025, especially as a 2016-born who has less runway to work with.

That said, his ES production is actually pretty decent. His PP production this year is a bit shocking (0G 5A) given his very PP-friendly skillset relative to this level and huge PP production in prior years. TC has had an atrocious PP ... will be interesting to see if that changes in Brandon.
Thanks for the write-up - can you comment on if he is playing center and if you think he projects as a center long-term?
 
Gavin’s fall (as a NHL draft pick, not trying to be melodramatic about a young person of course) is complete - not even listed among the top 225 names to watch for the draft among just North American players in Central Scouting final report.

Goes to show you what a long runway there is from your initial junior season to the draft. Especially in the WHL with its bantam aged draft. Add to that Gavin being a late birthdate and you are talking about a kid who has made appearances in the WHL for 5 seasons before even being drafted eligible.
 
Gavin’s fall (as a NHL draft pick, not trying to be melodramatic about a young person of course) is complete - not even listed among the top 225 names to watch for the draft among just North American players in Central Scouting final report.

Goes to show you what a long runway there is from your initial junior season to the draft. Especially in the WHL with its bantam aged draft. Add to that Gavin being a late birthdate and you are talking about a kid who has made appearances in the WHL for 5 seasons before even being drafted eligible.
4 seasons but yeah he hasn't really progressed much from his rookie year, no pulse. Will likely do 1 more WHL year then go to a solid NCAA program for 3-4 years. Maybe have a couple years in pro hockey after that.
 
He's worth a 7th round pick though. In a weak draft he's worth a flyer that late. He avoids contact like the plague so he's going to have get a lot tougher and grittier to get into the pros.

But is the whole “avoiding contact” thing simply create a DND for him? Flat-lining production is one thing but I just think for some of these kids, leaning into contact and physical play is not something you can necessarily just learn, especially by the time you are a 4 year vet in the WHL.

Not saying you are wrong that he could be drafted with a last round flier - but even in this draft, and maybe more so because it’s a weaker draft - there are probably a hundred kids who may fit the “well just take him with our last pick” label. I’m not sure it being a weak draft makes Gavin more likely to get selected.

It’s not fair but I can’t help but think Gavin’s lengthy WHL resume works against him somehow. Like, if he were scoring 100 points in the BCHL, maybe we’d be more excited…maybe the “avoids contact” thing would be brushed over a bit more. Same guy, more of a mystery box. Just a thought, as this thread is an interesting read and a microcosm of prospect evaluation on this forum.
 
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But is the whole “avoiding contact” thing simply create a DND for him? Flat-lining production is one thing but I just think for some of these kids, leaning into contact and physical play is not something you can necessarily just learn, especially by the time you are a 4 year vet in the WHL.

Not saying you are wrong that he could be drafted with a last round flier - but even in this draft, and maybe more so because it’s a weaker draft - there are probably a hundred kids who may fit the “well just take him with our last pick” label. I’m not sure it being a weak draft makes Gavin more likely to get selected.

Sure, you can learn. He's still a kid. "Man strength" or whatever you want to call it, come later for some kids.

At the 6th and 7th round level, why not? He can still produce offensively. A very good passer. At this point in the draft I would take a chance instead of some 6'4 fighter or goon that has no no offensive skill.
 
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