C/W Jesperi Kotkaniemi (2018, 3rd, MTL) Part III

[Just Linda]

Cool and what happens when you combine all of his stats from last year in the NHL, a short stint in the AHL and this year in Liiga? Still paint a good picture?

it’s underwhelming no matter how much you want to put a cute little dress on it. He’s not a natural scorer.

Yes, it still paints a good picture considering he was 19 for that entire time playing in men's leagues.

And again he looks really good playing in Finland right now, most games he's been the best player on the ice even though it's not showing up on the score card. A league that he 1) missed training camp, 2) joined later in the season and 3) was given crap linemates. You keep looking at those numbers but ignore that he has still looked right as we wanted him to.

He looked well above expectations his draft +1, looked below average in his NHL play in year 2, looked great in the AHL, looked fantastic in the playoffs, and looks good on Finland even though the points haven't been on the board.

For a 20 year old, he's been fantastic. His first NHL season was more impressive than the 1oa from last year (and even then 2nd and 3rd OAs. Nobody is panicking about Hughes because they realize he's young and you look for what he will become not what he is.

Kotkaneimi proved he is already an NHL 3C, there's no reason to doubt he will continue to progress beyond that. It would be straight up foolish to assume that a 20 year old won't get better.

 

[Just Linda]

LOL, I guess you missed MTL playoffs where he was one of our best players... KK is in training camp right now with Assat, he is chasing rust away and getting ready for the real training camp that should start in about 2 weeks, there is no need to go full force and has probably been told to avoid injuries, he also jumped in the action while his teamates were already skating for weeks...

I expect KK getting close to 50 pts next season, has matured alot both mentally and physically and will have better wingers to play with...

He straight up admitted that he views this as a warm-up for the NHL season and that this is "good practise for his real job" but he only scored 3 pts so therefore he's a bust who will never be more than a 3c unless he gets lucky.

Narratives around here eh?

 

[The90]

LOL, I guess you missed MTL playoffs where he was one of our best players... KK is in training camp right now with Assat, he is chasing rust away and getting ready for the real training camp that should start in about 2 weeks, there is no need to go full force and has probably been told to avoid injuries, he also jumped in the action while his teamates were already skating for weeks...

I expect KK getting close to 50 pts next season, has matured alot both mentally and physically and will have better wingers to play with...

That’s the point though. What has he shown to tell you he’s a 50 point player? Certainly nothing last year.

is he going to be treated like ‘just a 20 y/o kid’ when he’s pacing for 30 points at the halfway mark? I think we all know the answer to that.

There’s nothing wrong with the player he’s becoming. All I’m saying is he’s not appearing like he’ll be elite. Playoffs included. He would be on pace for 30ish points on a 40% shooting percentage and 0 assists. If he paced that over a year.

 

[The90]

Yes, it still paints a good picture considering he was 19 for that entire time playing in men's leagues.

And again he looks really good playing in Finland right now, most games he's been the best player on the ice even though it's not showing up on the score card. A league that he 1) missed training camp, 2) joined later in the season and 3) was given crap linemates. You keep looking at those numbers but ignore that he has still looked right as we wanted him to.

He looked well above expectations his draft +1, looked below average in his NHL play in year 2, looked great in the AHL, looked fantastic in the playoffs, and looks good on Finland even though the points haven't been on the board.

For a 20 year old, he's been fantastic. His first NHL season was more impressive than the 1oa from last year (and even then 2nd and 3rd OAs. Nobody is panicking about Hughes because they realize he's young and you look for what he will become not what he is.

Kotkaneimi proved he is already an NHL 3C, there's no reason to doubt he will continue to progress beyond that. It would be straight up foolish to assume that a 20 year old won't get better.

It’s weird, I’ve read a bunch of posters on the main boards and your board saying that he hasn’t been the best player on his own team.

nobody is panicking about Hughes because he’s already a star putting up elite #’s. You can learn defense, you can’t learn offensive talent that’s natural. Kk isn’t that guy.

 

[hockeyman1]

He might end up like Sam Bennett, who appears to be a good playoff performer.

 

[Just Linda]

That’s the point though. What has he shown to tell you he’s a 50 point player? Certainly nothing last year.

is he going to be treated like ‘just a 20 y/o kid’ when he’s pacing for 30 points at the halfway mark? I think we all know the answer to that.

There’s nothing wrong with the player he’s becoming. All I’m saying is he’s not appearing like he’ll be elite. Playoffs included. He would be on pace for 30ish points on a 40% shooting percentage and 0 assists. If he paced that over a year.

He had 35 pts in his 18 year old season. He was injured during the regular season last year. Scoring 50 isn't unreasonable this year, 45-50 is well within expectations. Last year only 4-5 20 year olds in the entire league scored more than 40 pts.

He's been impressive so far, you keep saying he had a bad NHL season but he was still just the 4th youngest player in the NHL last year.

 

[Just Linda]

It’s weird, I’ve read a bunch of posters on the main boards and your board saying that he hasn’t been the best player on his own team.

nobody is panicking about Hughes because he’s already a star putting up elite #’s. You can learn defense, you can’t learn offensive talent that’s natural. Kk isn’t that guy.

So 21 pts in 61 games is elite numbers but 34 pts in 79 games at the same age isn't impressive?

How does that work.

 

[The90]

He had 35 pts in his 18 year old season. He was injured during the regular season last year. Scoring 50 isn't unreasonable this year, 45-50 is well within expectations. Last year only 4-5 20 year olds in the entire league scored more than 40 pts.

He's been impressive so far, you keep saying he had a bad NHL season but he was still just the 4th youngest player in the NHL last year.

Doesn’t matter how old he is. He had a bad season. And is carrying that forward in liiga not producing.

 

[The90]

So 21 pts in 61 games is elite numbers but 34 pts in 79 games at the same age isn't impressive?

How does that work.

Lol. No gotcha moment here. I thought you were talking about q Hughes, you know, the one picked after kk. And constantly discussed as a could have on your own board.

I’d be worried about j Hughes too. We’ll see.

 

[Just Linda]

Doesn’t matter how old he is. He had a bad season. And is carrying that forward in liiga not producing.

And yet he still has a 34pt NHL season (with better underlying numbers than Hughes except for zone exits or entries, can't remember which one).

You can't focus on one season and ignore that he's already shown he can produce 34+ pts at the NHL level and expect no growth or development in him. All while admitting you are basing your argument on numbers and haven't actually taken the time to turn on a replay of the games he played. That just arguing in bad faith.

 

[Goldenhands]

That’s the point though. What has he shown to tell you he’s a 50 point player? Certainly nothing last year.

is he going to be treated like ‘just a 20 y/o kid’ when he’s pacing for 30 points at the halfway mark? I think we all know the answer to that.

There’s nothing wrong with the player he’s becoming. All I’m saying is he’s not appearing like he’ll be elite. Playoffs included. He would be on pace for 30ish points on a 40% shooting percentage and 0 assists. If he paced that over a year.

He looked good in playoffs and had no weapons besides him to convert his passing, I like Armia alot, but has limited offensive awarenesses, he is more of a strong puck possession complimentary player...

Next year will be different, KK will have either Toffoli or Anderson beside him, thats at least 40 pts guarentee from him, his line will produce more and the PP will be better as well, what will help his overall offensive production...

 

[The90]

And yet he still has a 34pt NHL season (with better underlying numbers than Hughes except for zone exits or entries, can't remember which one).

You can't focus on one season and ignore that he's already shown he can produce 34+ pts at the NHL level and expect no growth or development in him. All while admitting you are basing your argument on numbers and haven't actually taken the time to turn on a replay of the games he played. That just arguing in bad faith.

Sweet. We’re not talking about Hughes though. So I’ll just disregard reflections of him because ....?

who said we’re not expecting growth and development? He trending downwards in his point totals. Where’s the growth?

 

[Just Linda]

Sweet. We’re not talking about Hughes though. So I’ll just disregard reflections of him because ....?

who said we’re not expecting growth and development? He trending downwards in his point totals. Where’s the growth?

In his skating, in gap control, in his battling, etc etc. You know, the things that you have to actually watch him to see.

He had a tough season after establishing himself as an NHL player, a year in which he had knee, groin, concussion and then spleen issues. A year in which he got healthy and performed in the AHL and lead his team in goals in the NHL playoffs.

I don't get that your obsession seems to be with teenagers not being elite as nhlers, it's like you are completely incapable of understanding that NHL players take time to develop.

 

[Jackpot Jaret]

I think that JK is going to be a great player. Not a superstar, but a very good player. Guys like JK that are tall and lanky often take awhile to fill out and find their game in the NHL. Similar to how Mantha suddenly looks like a beast (if he can stay healthy). I've been very impressed by JK, he passes the eye test for me.

 

[The90]

In his skating, in gap control, in his battling, etc etc. You know, the things that you have to actually watch him to see.

He had a tough season after establishing himself as an NHL player, a year in which he had knee, groin, concussion and then spleen issues. A year in which he got healthy and performed in the AHL and lead his team in goals in the NHL playoffs.

I don't get that your obsession seems to be with teenagers not being elite as nhlers, it's like you are completely incapable of understanding that NHL players take time to develop.

I mean you don’t need to watch to see he’s not producing at an elite level. Or trending that way.

he shot at 40% in the playoffs and only managed 10 shots in 11 games, 0 assists. That’s not great lol

 

[FlyguyOX]

You mean the over the hill former stars that come over and play mls? I’m shocked they don’t tear it apart. Nice try.

The 20 year old 3rd overall pick should have more than 0-3 in 7gp. End of. The fact that he as a 20 year old is having a tough time reportedly keeping up with or adjusting to the speed of the game is an absolute joke. He’s not getting any faster after 20. You do or you don’t. You get bigger and slower. Find me one player that makes monumental leaps in their skating from the start to the end of their careers.

just because you reallllly realllly want him to be very good doesn’t mean he will be. There are big red flags going off everywhere for Kk. His nhl regular season last year is no bueno. Ppg in ahl is pretty good. 4 g 0 a in 10 games in playoffs is ok, but understood he was a beast other than the scoresheet. 0-3 in 7 in a league many leagues lower than the nhl is a huge red flag. As a third overall pick he should be eating that league for breakfast. And btw this isn’t some new league new language to him. He’s home, in his bed, with mommas cooking, in a league he had already played in. Your ‘oh there’s lots of variables’ argument doesn’t work. It doesn’t get anymore familiar than that. He’s literally lived at home 90% of his hockey life save for 2 years in Montreal.

Hes trending to be a 3c or a 2c on a weak lineup down the middle. There’s nothing wrong with that and I actually like him as a player. The problem is that at 3c you need to nail a superstar player. The only real bonafide superstars that Montreal has are on the wrong side of 30. They finally get a high draft pick again and it looks like he’s not going to be a superstar.

as it stands Montreal looks solid on paper, lots of depth good d and g. But what are they missing up front? A superstar. That’s the problem here. Kk doesn’t fit that bill. Typically young players are oozing with offensive talent but are sheltered to allow them to develop The defensive side of their games too. Can you honestly say that kk is oozing with offensive talent? Intangibles like using the body, working hard and hitting aren’t what I’m talking about. The answer is no and you know it. Again, he’s a good player, just not what you were hoping for, AT THIS POINT.

LOL are you really saying a player doesn't improve after age 20? JFC. He did great as a 17-18 year old in the NHL, had a down season, now written off because of 7 games overseas? Lord. I'll take the 10 game sample in the NHL playoffs over your 7 game sample overseas.

 

[FlyguyOX]

Cool and what happens when you combine all of his stats from last year in the NHL, a short stint in the AHL and this year in Liiga? Still paint a good picture?

it’s underwhelming no matter how much you want to put a cute little dress on it. He’s not a natural scorer.

Cool and what happens when you add context to the numbers.

 

[FlyguyOX]

Sweet. We’re not talking about Hughes though. So I’ll just disregard reflections of him because ....?

who said we’re not expecting growth and development? He trending downwards in his point totals. Where’s the growth?

Holy shit I can't argue with this guy. I can't wait to bump this thread next season.

 

[FlyguyOX]

I mean you don’t need to watch to see he’s not producing at an elite level. Or trending that way.

he shot at 40% in the playoffs and only managed 10 shots in 11 games, 0 assists. That’s not great lol

LOL!!!!!

 

[The90]

LOL!!!!!

Bump me please. Also, it’s not 7 games it’s a season and the start of this one. He’s not a star. 2/3 line centre. And that’s fine, just not a franchise player that you would expect at 3 oa. Is literally all I’m saying.

What context are you talking about? There’s no context, it’s pure statistics that he’s had underwhelming stats for a third overall pick.

 

[sansabri]

why are you bothering with the guy who thinks KK having 3 pts in his last 3 games is a huge red flag

 

[LeafChief]

We're approaching 1,000 posts. Started the new thread here!

C/W Jesperi Kotkaniemi (2018 - 3rd overall, MTL) Part Four!