C Marco Rossi - Ottawa 67’s, OHL (2020 Draft)

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Stats are only meaningful if they've shown to be a factor in the past.

Too many people are looking at his stats vs top and bottom teams and making assumptions about the implications of those stats without evidence that it makes a big difference

From what I've seen they aren't meaningless but its not as simple as if you produce way more vs bad teams you bust. Producing against good teams has definitely been something that is a good sign, but guys like stamkos and marner had big drop offs like rossi and turned out fine.

I'd rather that he scores a lot against good and bad teams, but the scoring he did shouldn't just be thrown out because it was heavily skewed against bad teams

In the analysis I wrote way back on page 45 or 46 it was broken down like this:

Rossi's PPG drops against the top 6 teams in the OHL, his team's goals per game (GPG) average drops, but the opposition's GPG drops more.
Perfetti's PPG remains approximately the same against the top WEST teams but drop against the east, his team's GPG sees an increase, but the other team's GPG increases as well.

This is a trend I would theorize carries over to their NHL careers as well; Rossi will be a guy that the other team's scoring forward sees their averages dip against, while Perfetti may try to run and gun with them. It's also precisely the reason I prefer Rossi to Perfetti, even though I think both will be good NHLers.

I'll take a look at Byfield's as well at some point, and one or two other draft-eligible top centers in the OHL this year and line them all up to see how everyone fares.

 

[jc17]

In the analysis I wrote way back on page 45 or 46 it was broken down like this:

Rossi's PPG drops against the top 6 teams in the OHL, his team's goals per game (GPG) average drops, but the opposition's GPG drops more.
Perfetti's PPG remains approximately the same against the top WEST teams but drop against the east, his team's GPG sees an increase, but the other team's GPG increases as well.

This is a trend I would theorize carries over to their NHL careers as well; Rossi will be a guy that the other team's scoring forward sees their averages dip against, while Perfetti may try to run and gun with them. It's also precisely the reason I prefer Rossi to Perfetti, even though I think both will be good NHLers.

I'll take a look at Byfield's as well at some point, and one or two other draft-eligible top centers in the OHL this year and line them all up to see how everyone fares.

Yeah I think there's context thats often missed. Now even with that said, I feel like it does have to be said both ways. The stats you talk about which affirm most of Rossi's fans opinion, also don't necessarily show a history of being meaningful, because we just dont have the data. I'd be interested in hearing those stats for guys like horvat, Yakupov, Bennett, Draisaitl, guys who all scored well but had very different NHL outcomes. Not saying you have to do this, but would be interesting to see the implications.

 

[SympathyForTheDevils]

In the analysis I wrote way back on page 45 or 46 it was broken down like this:

Rossi's PPG drops against the top 6 teams in the OHL, his team's goals per game (GPG) average drops, but the opposition's GPG drops more.
Perfetti's PPG remains approximately the same against the top WEST teams but drop against the east, his team's GPG sees an increase, but the other team's GPG increases as well.

This is a trend I would theorize carries over to their NHL careers as well; Rossi will be a guy that the other team's scoring forward sees their averages dip against, while Perfetti may try to run and gun with them. It's also precisely the reason I prefer Rossi to Perfetti, even though I think both will be good NHLers.

I'll take a look at Byfield's as well at some point, and one or two other draft-eligible top centers in the OHL this year and line them all up to see how everyone fares.

I appreciate your breakdown, but I don't see how the bolded can be true. According to your own post, Ottawa had a roughly 3 GF/3 GA record against top teams; they had 4.77 GF/2.64 GA overall. The other 6 top teams were 4.27 GF/ 3.47 GA on average. This means that if they did adopt a particularly structured gameplan against top teams, it failed, hurting their own offense more than it hurt the other teams.

Saginaw's overall numbers, which you nicely calculated to be 4 GF/ 4GA against top teams, are 4.66 GF/ 3.63 GA. Looks pretty normal: score a bit more less and get scored on a bit more vs great teams. Ottawa's GA looks normal too; it's their big drop in GF that looks odd. I should note that it's normal that Saginaw's numbers look closer to their average, because they played so much more games against great teams. But it brings me back to the same point.

Instead of just assuming that they play differently in those games, these numbers could be explained just as well by the idea that, while the 67's were a great team in their own right, they got inflated numbers (particularly offensively) by playing an easier schedule in a weaker conference, compared with the other contenders. And Rossi's numbers follow the same trend. This is the simplest explanation by far.

It could also just be a sample size thing, but again, the fact that Ottawa played so few games against the other contenders is not exactly a feather in their cap.

 

[Zaddy]

This argument is so stupid. I’m pretty sure that’s how hockey works.
Let’s say he is a PPG player in the nhl. How is scoring 43points in 35 games against bad teams and 39 points in 47 games against good teams bad? He is still contributing at a solid rate vs most teams. The argument”he only scored blah blah” against good teams is stupid.

First off, juniors and NHL are a different beast altogether. The difference between bad and good teams in the NHL is much, much smaller than in juniors, and that was especially true this past year in the OHL. Secondly, even in the NHL you want your guys performing when it matters and not have guys who pad their stats in the regular season against shitty teams. If you want to win a Cup you need to have players who play their best hockey when games get tight.

Not saying Rossi isn't going to be that guy or that his point distribution in the OHL has any significant bearing on that particular thing. However I do think it's valuable to compare his numbers vs Perfetti's in this instance as that gives you an indication of who is the better player and prospect.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

First off, juniors and NHL are a different beast altogether. The difference between bad and good teams in the NHL is much, much smaller than in juniors, and that was especially true this past year in the OHL. Secondly, even in the NHL you want your guys performing when it matters and not have guys who pad their stats in the regular season against shitty teams. If you want to win a Cup you need to have players who play their best hockey when games get tight.

Not saying Rossi isn't going to be that guy or that his point distribution in the OHL has any significant bearing on that particular thing. However I do think it's valuable to compare his numbers vs Perfetti's in this instance as that gives you an indication of who is the better player and prospect.

Its a comparison but you would need to watch those games imo.. how do the teams approach the games is a factor, and there are others .. you can't just look at a game sheet one vs the other and draw conclusions. I also think it comes down to preference vs science on who you think is better... then build a narrative and try to sell it.

 

[Hockey Know it all]

First off, juniors and NHL are a different beast altogether. The difference between bad and good teams in the NHL is much, much smaller than in juniors, and that was especially true this past year in the OHL. Secondly, even in the NHL you want your guys performing when it matters and not have guys who pad their stats in the regular season against shitty teams. If you want to win a Cup you need to have players who play their best hockey when games get tight.

Not saying Rossi isn't going to be that guy or that his point distribution in the OHL has any significant bearing on that particular thing. However I do think it's valuable to compare his numbers vs Perfetti's in this instance as that gives you an indication of who is the better player and prospect.

Read what other people posted then come back. You don’t know much on this subject.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

In the analysis I wrote way back on page 45 or 46 it was broken down like this:

Rossi's PPG drops against the top 6 teams in the OHL, his team's goals per game (GPG) average drops, but the opposition's GPG drops more.
Perfetti's PPG remains approximately the same against the top WEST teams but drop against the east, his team's GPG sees an increase, but the other team's GPG increases as well.

This is a trend I would theorize carries over to their NHL careers as well; Rossi will be a guy that the other team's scoring forward sees their averages dip against, while Perfetti may try to run and gun with them. It's also precisely the reason I prefer Rossi to Perfetti, even though I think both will be good NHLers.

I'll take a look at Byfield's as well at some point, and one or two other draft-eligible top centers in the OHL this year and line them all up to see how everyone fares.

Blue line in with possession, run a pp from the half wall.. I give the edge to Perfetti over Rossi and Raymond even though they are both very capable. .. Every other facet of the game I give to Rossi and Raymond.

 

[lilidk]

Best scenario for Rossi to play with j. Hughes, so NJ

 

[Nicomo Cosca]

Best scenario for Rossi to play with j. Hughes, so NJ

Yes please.

 

[Caser]

Over 1k posts in this thread, time for part 2: C Marco Rossi - Ottawa 67’s, OHL (2020 Draft) Part II