1. Hughes's draft-1 year is totally relevant. Why? Because sans Keller, all the elite players produced by the NTDP -- Matthews, Tkachuk, Kessel, Kane, Eichel -- were late birthdays. So you can only use their draft-1's NTDP seasons as a measuring stick since. Matthews and Hughes's draft-1's were identical -- the two best NTDP seasons in history. The rest didn't come close. There is no reason to think Hughes could not have been an NLA MVP candidate or Hobey Baker winner had he been a late birthday and played his draft year in a tougher league. You are punishing him over a birthdate, which no NHL scout or GM will do.
Hughes was 16 for his entire draft-1 season, as was Keller. Matthews, Eichel, Tkachuk, Kane and Kessel were 17 either to start their final NTDP seasons. Has nothing to do with being "more suited" for the program. It's called having or not having a late birthday.
2. The only thing more ridiculous than asking a player with a 1.93 p/g in his draft-1 year to improve it the following season is actually saying a 2.00 p/g draft-year average is "not improving". By your rationale, if Hughes simply had an above-average NTDP draft-1 season (by NTDP standards) like Keller did, then his explosion in production for this season would be acknowledged. Brilliant. Just brilliant.
3. You ignored Keller's massive drop off in scoring in the second half. Hughes sits at 2.00 p/g through 28 games. You are cherry picking primary points as the basis of your argument. Keller had 23 points in his first 13 USHL games -- 10 coming in two games -- but only 18 in his final 14. Hughes has 22 points in his first 13 USHL games. You wanna argue that Hughes also will have Keller's second-half dip in production, be my guest. All signs points towards Hughes having the superior season by the end of the U18s in April.
4. The bolded:
-- "Lacks a shot" -- He's a playmaking center with an accurate shot. Accurate as in, he forces a goalie into making a tough save. It would be more of a concern if he was a winger. Plus, he's 17. Shot velocity and accuracy improve with age anyway. Giroux had an average shot his draft year. Jarome Iginla and Anze Kopitar were scouted as having a "good shot" -- which is CSB's way of saying it's nothing special. The Sedins had poor shots as teens. Marian Hossa had a poor shot but a nice touch.
All will be Hall of Famers.
--"Poor at forechecking" -- Nobody cares but you. For real. Nobody cares about Hughes's forechecking when he's relentless on the puck in the offensive zone and is a possession fiend. That's all people care about. You are trying to imply a lack of hockey sense or poor effort, and neither are true.
--"Defensive liability" -- Again, nobody cares but you. Steve Yzerman won a Selke. I repeat -- Steve friggin Yzerman won a Selke. Mike friggin Modano was a Selke finalist. Easily two of the most criticized finesse forwards for the first 7 or 8 years of their NHL careers developed into elite two-way centers.
--"Easily pushed off the puck" -- Pat Kane was 5'11/160 for London. Won a Calder the next season. Hughes's edge work is among the best of any pre-draft player in history. Balance will improve with age. A valid concern but a risky one to use as the basis for not drafting him.
--"Tunnel vision off the rush" -- A simple Twitter search debunks this. He's a puck hog, that's it. So was McDavid. So was Crosby. If he's so predictable, than why can't anybody at three levels -- USHL, NCAA and INTL -- stop him? His speed and agility create massive openings for his linemates and back defenders in well off the line.
1. If we look at D-1 seasons, what comes to mind is Nail Yakupov's D-1 season in Sarnia where he broke Steven Stamkos' D-1 scoring record, both in goals and points. Yakupov was considered to be a special talent entering his draft season; just as you've compared Hughes to Crosby, McDavid, Matthews and Kane in your latest article, some were calling Yakupov "better than Bure" and "the hottest thing" from Russia since Ovechkin.
D-1 seasons mean less than D+0 seasons. Not every player in one's D-1 is as developed as they are in the D+0 year, and it becomes even clearer in the D+1 year who the best prospects are in a draft class.
Sarnia Sting’s Nail Yakupov: scouts offer takes on NHL draft’s top-ranked prospect
Much like Steven Stamkos in 2008, John Tavares in 2009, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins last year — Sarnia Sting star Nail Yakupov has apparently separated himself from the pack as the clear-cut top talent in the NHL's draft class of 2012.
Yakupov's impeccable offensive instincts and abilities are what make him great. This elite skill was evident in his first season in the Ontario Hockey League. He bested Stamkos' 92-point rookie season record in Sarnia with 49 goals and 101 points throughout 65 games. He also turned heads at the IIHF world under-18 championship, posting an outstanding six goals and 13 points in seven games for the Russians.
https://thehockeywriters.com/nail-yakupov-the-stinging-star/
Nail Yakupov: The Stinging Star
By David OConnor October 3rd, 2011
Size is not an issue for him, as he can use his tremendous skill level to get around larger opponents very easily, even though he is only 5’10 and 175 pounds. This CHL Rookie of the Year has loads of potential, and will surely be an NHL star very soon. An extremely skilled winger, Yakupov is the hottest thing to come out of Russia since Alex Ovechkin, and is already drawing comparisons to the superstar.
One of Yakupov’s idols growing up was another speedy Russian by the name of Pavel Bure. Nail has said that Bure is someone who he tries to pattern his game after, but the speed and goal-scoring ability of Yakupov might just be even better than Bure’s.
Are you actually suggesting that, if Hughes was eight months older, he would have matched Matthews' point totals this year in the NLA?
2. If Hughes had only recorded Keller's D-1 numbers last year, he would be exactly where Keller was at this point in 2016. You ranked Keller 11tth on your January 2016 list, so a player with Keller's D-1 and D+0 seasons up to this point would have that much value on your draft list. This "explosion" in scoring was only good enough for Keller to be 11th on your list.
The Draft Analyst | The Draft Analyst’s Rankings: The top 250 prospects for the 2016 NHL Draft (January)
If his D-1 season were the same as Keller's, logically, the increase in production would not be any more significant than that of Keller's points increase.
For the record, Keller was even younger at this point in 2016 than Hughes is now: Keller has a July birth date; Hughes has a May birth date.
3. As stated above, Keller's first half of the 2015-16 season was only good enough for 11th on your 2016 list, the decrease in production resulted in a drop of two spots on your March 2016 list.
The Draft Analyst | The Draft Analyst’s Rankings: The top 250 prospects for the 2016 NHL Draft (March)
If he had continued to score at the same rate all season, would you really have vaulted him all the way to Matthews' tier on your final list?
4. Not every player in the NHL improves in every aspect. If they did, there would be no need for scouting and no need to identify weaknesses. If deficiencies in a player were not a concern, there would never be any concerns about drafting any player.
You amusingly mention Henrik Sedin, who had a terrible shot by NHL standards. Canucks fans know this. We even have his hardest shot measurements from 2008: on two attempts, he measured 88.5 and 86.3 mph.
The Sedins were two of the most intelligent cycle players ever. Henrik only scored 20+ goals twice in his career, while Daniel scored most of his goals via puck movement and set plays with his brother.
Another pure playmaker with a sub-NHL shot was Scott Gomez.
This is the exact play that Hughes tried a couple of times at the WJC; it's a "highlight reel" play for him:
It's not a highlight in the NHL.
There are many NHL players right now whose shots are average at best, and even above-average shooters are not always elite scorers. There are a lot of NHL speedsters who aren't very good at shooting the puck. Some
great skaters don't play in the NHL partly because they can't shoot the puck -- Alex Biega, for example. Biega has other deficiencies that hinder him too, but he is one of the better-skating Canucks of the last few years. He can get the puck past the offensive blue line, but is probably better served dumping it into the corner than laying one of his floaters into the goaltender's crest.
I can't fathom someone shrugging off poor forechecking, defensive issues, a tendency to lose puck battles, and a rush-centric, individualistic game as not being of any consequence.
Other scouts were aware of some of these issues in Nail Yakupov in 2012; would you have been in the other camp shrugging it off and marketing him as the next Bure?
Sarnia Sting’s Nail Yakupov: scouts offer takes on NHL draft’s top-ranked prospect
Scout's take: "Yakupov's skating is unrivaled in this year's draft," says Matt Moran of OHL Central Scouting. "He is blessed with a powerful stride and incredible four-way mobility that makes him a threat to score every time he touches the puck. Nail is so explosive and gets to top speed in the blink of an eye. On the offensive side of the blueline he consistently brings fans to the edge of their seats. He is a pure trigger man and is certainly NHL ready in that regard, which is something that can't be said for many forwards in this draft."
High expectations and lofty comparisons go hand in hand with being this good this fast. Yakupov has been touted as the NHL's next big star and franchise player, drawing some comparisons to the likes of New Jersey Devils sniper Ilya Kovalchuk and Washington Capitals star Alexander Ovechkin.
Scout's take: "In terms of franchise players, names like Crosby, Ovechkin and (Columbus Blue Jackets') Rick Nash come to mind, and I am not sure if Nail's game is as complete as those players in their respective draft years," says Moran. "Although he showed at the world junior this year he can distribute and use his teammates effectively, he is certainly a one-dimensional player right now."
"While his defensive play will no doubt develop with NHL coaching and more experience, I am not sure if he has a complete enough game right now. While he will no doubt be a first line talent for a long time in the NHL, I think to be a bona fide superstar Nail will need to focus on improving his play both away from the puck and in his own end."
