C Jack Eichel (2015, 2nd, BUF) IV

[Dempsey]

You don't just compare two prospects' 18-year-old seasons equally when one was already drafted and one was still in his draft year.

IMO the correct way to compare them would be to compare their draft years against each other. I also always take older (birthdate between Sept 16 and Dec 31) players' stats with a bit of a grain of salt, but it's still certainly a better way to compare than to compare one players' draft year with another's draft +1 season.

 

[93LEAFS]

You don't just compare two prospects' 18-year-old seasons equally when one was already drafted and one was still in his draft year.

IMO the correct way to compare them would be to compare their draft years against each other. I also always take older (birthdate between Sept 16 and Dec 31) players' stats with a bit of a grain of salt, but it's still certainly a better way to compare than to compare one players' draft year with another's draft +1 season.

The correct way would probably find some balance between the two, they are both just arbitrary cut off points. This gets especially tricky comparing with the CHL when comparing early draftees to late born draftees as they will always of had a season of more development time. Comparing an august 97 to a September 96, is gonna cause just as many problems of comparing a January 97 to a December 97, but in one case they are in different draft years.

 

[leafsfuture]

The correct way would probably find some balance between the two, they are both just arbitrary cut off points. This gets especially tricky comparing with the CHL when comparing early draftees to late born draftees as they will always of had a season of more development time. Comparing an august 97 to a September 96, is gonna cause just as many problems of comparing a January 97 to a December 97, but in one case they are in different draft years.

I agree, but only to a point.

The reason why its easier to compare a Jan 97 to a Dec 97 as opposed to a Sept 96 to Aug 97 is that in the first case, the two players are likely playing in the same age group growing up.

People go back to the Sequin-Hall debate. The Sequin crowd noted his 92 birthday, but the Hall crowd said that the age gap was just 3 months. I however sided with Team Sequin because as you mention, that extra year for Hall matters.

 

[93LEAFS]

I agree, but only to a point.

The reason why its easier to compare a Jan 97 to a Dec 97 as opposed to a Sept 96 to Aug 97 is that in the first case, the two players are likely playing in the same age group growing up.

People go back to the Sequin-Hall debate. The Sequin crowd noted his 92 birthday, but the Hall crowd said that the age gap was just 3 months. I however sided with Team Sequin because as you mention, that extra year for Hall matters.

Thing this is true for Canada but not all parts of the United States. Eichel had to fast track a grade to be eligible for college this year due to being a late birthday, pretty sure he was in the same grade as Hanifin his entire life. I agree with you mostly on CHL comparisons, I tend to lean towards birth year, but it gets complex when comparing NCAA to CHL.

 

[EichHart]

Pretty awesome article on projecting Eichels first season production.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/projecting-jack-eichels-nhl-rookie-season-production/

 

[Howboutthempanthers]

He starts next week against other NHL teams for the first time in the rookie tournaments. It's against other rookies, but still...
Then he starts training camp like a week later.
Let's get this started already, ******.

 

[FamilyGuy716]

He starts next week against other NHL teams for the first time in the rookie tournaments. It's against other rookies, but still...
Then he starts training camp like a week later.
Let's get this started already, ******.

Amen brother! This can't start soon enough

 

[Wonderfulmitch]

Pretty awesome article on projecting Eichels first season production.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/projecting-jack-eichels-nhl-rookie-season-production/

Very interesting. And if you notice using their models Marner and Eichel would be projected to get the same point total this year (I've been saying this all along). Considering Marner would still have to grow into his body and Eichel was an early bloomer, can't even imagine what Marner will be putting up a few years down the line

 

[93LEAFS]

Very interesting. And if you notice using their models Marner and Eichel would be projected to get the same point total this year (I've been saying this all along). Considering Marner would still have to grow into his body and Eichel was an early bloomer, can't even imagine what Marner will be putting up a few years down the line

Sick, lets p*ss off every fanbase and debate Marner in every thread.... Even if (a big if) Marner and Eichel are equal offensively, Eichel is likely to have the more well rounded game. Further, there is no guarantee Marner will grow taller or add much weight(look at Kane and Giroux). Hopefully for both fanbases both guys reach their perceived potential, so the rivalry can extend from just annoying each other on hockey futures to playoff battles between 2 teams led by upcoming stars.

 

[Royal Thunder]

Sick, lets p*ss off every fanbase and debate Marner in every thread.... Even if (a big if) Marner and Eichel are equal offensively, Eichel is likely to have the more well rounded game. Further, there is no guarantee Marner will grow taller or add much weight(look at Kane and Giroux). Hopefully for both fanbases both guys reach their perceived potential, so the rivalry can extend from just annoying each other on hockey futures to playoff battles between 2 teams led by upcoming stars.

Amen to this!

 

[schpaff]

Very interesting. And if you notice using their models Marner and Eichel would be projected to get the same point total this year (I've been saying this all along). Considering Marner would still have to grow into his body and Eichel was an early bloomer, can't even imagine what Marner will be putting up a few years down the line

Keep on thinking that

 

[CaseyMitts37]

Sick, lets p*ss off every fanbase and debate Marner in every thread.... Even if (a big if) Marner and Eichel are equal offensively, Eichel is likely to have the more well rounded game. Further, there is no guarantee Marner will grow taller or add much weight(look at Kane and Giroux). Hopefully for both fanbases both guys reach their perceived potential, so the rivalry can extend from just annoying each other on hockey futures to playoff battles between 2 teams led by upcoming stars.

What?! Based off his brother, his second cousin, and his great uncle's growth patterns and the shirtless pictures I saw of him on Instagram, he is guaranteed to be at least 6'3" and 220

 

[Plub]

Very interesting. And if you notice using their models Marner and Eichel would be projected to get the same point total this year (I've been saying this all along). Considering Marner would still have to grow into his body and Eichel was an early bloomer, can't even imagine what Marner will be putting up a few years down the line

Wrong thread. Go away.

 

[Wonderfulmitch]

Sick, lets p*ss off every fanbase and debate Marner in every thread.... Even if (a big if) Marner and Eichel are equal offensively, Eichel is likely to have the more well rounded game. Further, there is no guarantee Marner will grow taller or add much weight(look at Kane and Giroux). Hopefully for both fanbases both guys reach their perceived potential, so the rivalry can extend from just annoying each other on hockey futures to playoff battles between 2 teams led by upcoming stars.

Not trying to piss anyone off, just think it's ridiculous that everyone acts like Eichel is on a completely different level of existence but according to this objective evidence it shows their rookie seasons would be offensively the same. And I actually prefer Marners defensive game. Not saying Marner will def be better but Marner's junior production is phenomanal and he doesn't get enough credit because he's a leaf prospect.

 

[explore]

Pretty awesome article on projecting Eichels first season production.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/projecting-jack-eichels-nhl-rookie-season-production/

This calculations on this article are half-assed compared to the McDavid article. The McDavid article (http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/mcdavid-could-be-top-10-in-nhl-scoring-as-oilers-rookie/) actually used data to show predicted point totals from their calculations compared it to actual results based on past (CHL) players, while the Eichel article uses a magic bean formula comprised of college players, without any actual results to show a correlation (if any).

I think it should be assumed that if they intentionally left out the actual correlation values in their article, that their calculations are bunk and hold no predictive value and is meant to be a click-bait article.

 

[NotYou]

Pretty awesome article on projecting Eichels first season production.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/projecting-jack-eichels-nhl-rookie-season-production/

That graph has an R^2 of .53. There is very little correlation there and it should be taken with a huge grain of salt. That there is no confidence interval given is even worse, given the weak correlation. Finally, they call Toews, Stasny, and Stafford outliers, but appear to include them in the regression. They also failed to explain why those guys did so much better than predicted, which would be interesting and actually useful. Lazy statistics.

 

[Butt Ox]

Not trying to piss anyone off, just think it's ridiculous that everyone acts like Eichel is on a completely different level of existence but according to this objective evidence it shows their rookie seasons would be offensively the same. And I actually prefer Marners defensive game. Not saying Marner will def be better but Marner's junior production is phenomanal and he doesn't get enough credit because he's a leaf prospect.

Cool. Go tell everyone in the thread dedicated to Marner.

 

[Ducks Nation*]

Wait people think Marner will be better than Eichel?

 

[AD1066]

Not trying to piss anyone off, just think it's ridiculous that everyone acts like Eichel is on a completely different level of existence but according to this objective evidence it shows their rookie seasons would be offensively the same. And I actually prefer Marners defensive game. Not saying Marner will def be better but Marner's junior production is phenomanal and he doesn't get enough credit because he's a leaf prospect.

You said as much on the Leafs' board.

Don't get me wrong, we're all allowed to be a bit of homers on our own boards and want to see the best in our prospects, but might as well stand by your word:

Someone who gets it. Marner has a higher hockey IQ than just about anyone not named Mcdavid in this draft (in fact the highest I have seen in a long time) and thats what allows him to be so good defensively too. Eichel is no slouch defensively but Marner thinks the game better and it allows him better position in the defensive end, not to mention he has the speed to get back.

It was just more of a story to have The American Vs. The Canadien, and Eichel was bigger and was more hyped before this year. But based on play this year Marner is at least as valuable as Eichel and I bet will be in the future too

Right now I would take Marner over Eichel. I think Marner has a higher hockey IQ, is a shiftier skater and has better vision and I think those attributes make him better defensively.

I think if people followed him like they followed Eichel it would be much more split than everyone just favoring Eichel, the problem is that if you are a fan leading up to the draft all you hear is "Eichel mcdavid, mcdavid eichel"

I agree with this, I actually think Marner is generational and that Eichel isn't. I know people don't want to admit it, but its pretty generational what Marner did in juniors. And that's not to say necessarily that Marner is better than Eichel right now, but that at their peaks, Marner will be generational.

Like many have said, Eichel is a man now and thus if both were in the league right now, Eichel would do better, but Marner has the higher potential, he's a special player and I'll take him all day

 

[Aceboogie]

Jesus Christ. That's next level stuff

 

[Ducks Nation*]

Toronto does have the best fans

 

[Beerz]

Not trying to piss anyone off, just think it's ridiculous that everyone acts like Eichel is on a completely different level of existence but according to this objective evidence it shows their rookie seasons would be offensively the same. And I actually prefer Marners defensive game. Not saying Marner will def be better but Marner's junior production is phenomanal and he doesn't get enough credit because he's a leaf prospect.

"Objective evidence" haha. There is no evidence. It's a bunk article with bunk data designed to get fanboys in a tizzy one way or another.

 

[93LEAFS]

"Objective evidence" haha. There is no evidence. It's a bunk article with bunk data designed to get fanboys in a tizzy one way or another.

I'm a huge fan of Marner but it seems for the OHL guys they only used draft year guys but for the NCAA they used all ages. That would skew the numbers in Marner's favor.

 

[93LEAFS]

Wait people think Marner will be better than Eichel?

Yes, its pretty much the same as a certain group of fans who insist Eichel will be better than McDavid. Its not based in much objectively and more in fandom/tribalism.

 

[Ducks Nation*]

Yes, its pretty much the same as a certain group of fans who insist Eichel will be better than McDavid. Its not based in much objectively and more in fandom/tribalism.

Eichel is closer to McDavid than Marner is to Eichel