Even if that’s true, the point still stands; you’re not looking for Brian Boyles in the 1st round. You said a Brian Boyle type player would be a “home run” with this pick. If we were talking about a 5th rounder, I might agree, but not a mid-1st.
C Dean Letourneau - Boston College, NCAA (2024, 25th, BOS)
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The don godfather
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Boyle was a late first round pick like leternaeu. This isnt a top 10 pick here.
DaaaaB's
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Fair enough regarding your first paragraph but I have to disagree with the 2nd one. I think the comment you replied to was pretty accurate. His D+5 season will be as a pro and if he's excelling there then his disappointing D+1 year becomes irrelevant. The bad season is certainly not a good indicator and could have a long lasting negative affect on his development but it's way too early to say it was a worse pick than the ones afterwards.
Hard disagree. A D+5 pro debut is being way too generous for a skater in the 1st round, especially one whose upside is likely a bottom-six guy if all goes well. Sure, it could happen that way, but that isn’t what you want with a 1st rounder.
And no, I don’t think it’s too early to say it’s looking like a very bad pick. Liam Greentree was taken with the very next pick; take a look at the kind of season he’s having, and then tell me Bruins fans wouldn’t rather have him instead. That kid has elite upside and it was pretty apparent at draft time too, so this isn’t a hindsight thing - he slid a bit from where he was projected to go (mostly just due to the way things shook out ahead of him - some teams went off the board, resulting in other guys sliding).
Chernyshov is another one who went soon after and scored at like 3 points per game in the OHL. Cole Hutson was also on the board, as was Artamonov. All these guys had absolutely fantastic D+1 seasons. This is what I mean about the cope; the Bruins would love to have all those guys in the system right now, and all of them have a good chance to be in the NHL next year. They all legitimately have star player type upside. And again, you could see this coming - many people called taking Letourneau over these guys a bad pick from the start.
When you look at the comparables with this kind of pick (David Fischer, Mike McCarron, Mark Jankowski, Brian Boyle, etc), it makes absolutely no sense with the kind of talent that was still on the board. And even in what is likely to be the best case scenario (Boyle), it’s still not good, given the context. At some point you just have to call a spade a spade. Of course, there’s nothing that can be done about it now, and you obviously hope for the best, but still.
DaaaaB's
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First off, no one said his D+5 season will necessarily be his pro debut and even if it is him excelling then is what's important. Secondly, the Bruins certainly viewed his potential as top 6 not bottom. He's a high ceiling low floor prospect not the low ceiling high floor type you've been talking about. Frederic and Beecher were those type of prospects.
And finally, these others guys doing well does not mean Letourneau is a bad pick already especially given the extraordinary circumstances of jumping from Canadian high school hockey to arguably the best program in arguably the best conference in NCAA. Greentree dropped because he's not a good skater so we'll see how that works out for him in the NHL. He's also a man amongst boys out there. Your comparables are also meaningless, the Bruins didn't draft him with expectations of him becoming Brian Boyle.
A Bruins fan asserted that was the timeline/expectation.
Obviously, but it seemed ill-advised at the time and only looks worse now.
Doesn’t look that way now.
It’s been done before (or similar), and players have excelled. He did not. In fact, I don’t think he could’ve had a worse season.
Tangential, but he has improved it significantly since the draft, hence the offensive explosion this season. His skating is no longer a concern.
You saying this about another player in a thread about Dean Letourneau is hilarious. He was 6’7”, 220 lbs playing against u18 high school boys in a league several tiers below where Greentree played. I don’t think a “man against boys” situation can get any more extreme than Letourneau last year
Also, a Bruins fan brought up Brian Boyle as a comparable initially, not me. Although there are indeed a lot of similarities between the two.
DaaaaB's
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Not wasting my time multi quoting this nonsense.A Bruins fan asserted that was the timeline/expectation.
Obviously, but it seemed ill-advised at the time and only looks worse now.
Doesn’t look that way now.
It’s been done before (or similar), and players have excelled. He did not. In fact, I don’t think he could’ve had a worse season.
Tangential, but he has improved it significantly since the draft, hence the offensive explosion this season. His skating is no longer a concern.
You saying this about another player in a thread about Dean Letourneau is hilarious. He was 6’7”, 220 lbs playing against u18 high school boys in a league several tiers below where Greentree played. I don’t think a “man against boys” situation can get any more extreme than Letourneau last year
Also, a Bruins fan brought up Brian Boyle as a comparable initially, not me. Although there are indeed a lot of similarities between the two.
- No, the person you quoted said he was drafted as a 5+ year project. Said nothing about turning pro in his D+5 year.
- That's your opinion and lots of people disagreed with you at the time of the pick
- I was clearly talking about when he was drafted but it still holds true just less confident about him hitting the ceiling.
- It's very rarely been done especially the past 15-20 years. Provide some examples if you want
- Greentree's skating is definitely still a concern. I'd obviously rather have him at this time but the point is that making judgements on prospects after one year is a fools game.
- Letourneau didn't play high school this year though. He dominated when he did but he was playing against grown men this year.
- I know who brought up Boyle but you're the one who keeps mentioning him and seems to think the Bruins drafted Letourneau with the expectation of him being Boyle which is not true at all.
Yea totally misread his HDB page. As for 4th line vs. 1st, at literally no point during the season did Letorneau show anything to deserve a spot on the 3rd or 2nd line, let alone the first.
The point still stands that yes, Letonreau is a project and Boston and any other team that drafted him knew he would probably have a longer timeline to the NHL. Even comparing him to other "project" types -- from the very high end of that range like Tage to the very low end like Jay O'Brien or Tyler Boucher -- he's had a pretty historically awful D+1 season which does not at all bode well for his future as an NHL player. You can only go off of the information you have. If you were doing a re-ranking of all of the drafted players from last year after their D+1 (not in terms of how good their D+1 is, but what their NHL projection looks like given the new information of their D+1) Letorneau would slide far out of the first round.
Jacob
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The issue is if you think your 1st round pick needs 4 years at college you're basically running a very high risk they just wait until August 1st and hit the UFA market.
This isn't a big deal for later round picks but it seems like a good way of wasting a 1st round pick.
This isn't a big deal for later round picks but it seems like a good way of wasting a 1st round pick.
DaaaaB's
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Once again, I'll say judging prospects after one year is a fools game but if you want to waste your time have at it. Comparing current prospects to previous ones is also a waste of time and meaningless. He obviously had a bad year but if he does well next year it's irrelevant so here's a wild idea.... let's wait and see.
Hockeyville USA
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August 15*. And I don't see Letourneau running out the clock on the Bruins even if he needs all 4 years
Hockeyville USA
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Of course we have to wait and see, but until then, we're gonna talk about the historical context of a historically bad D+1 season & how most thought it was a moderate reach on draft day & how nearly everyone thought it was dumb for him to go directly from Canadian Prep hockey to the NCAA without a full season in junior.
Until he starts producing like Tage Thompson did at UConn, we're going to make the comparisons to Brian Boyle, Riley Tufte, and Jay O'Brien, because the data & development paths are quite similar so far.
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DaaaaB's
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That's fine if you want to make those comparisons, it's a waste of time and meaningless but you do you. And everyone agrees that it was a bad decision to go straight to college. Calling him an absolutely brutal pick or a bust already is just stupid though. It's like you guys just started following prospects a year ago.
Hockeyville USA
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There are some people (who tend to be more reactionary) who are calling it brutal or a bust. There are others who have monitored him all year who aren't writing him off, but have indicated multiple times (including in this thread) that Letourneau's D+1 season is cause for serious concern.
DaaaaB's
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Well yeah, I clearly wasn't referring to those people as I've said the same thing many times. The guy I was arguing with did say that though, hence the argument.
WarriorofTime
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I'll continue to insist this year was never about his production. If he's got low production next year, then yeah, he's very likely just a nothing player. Until then, I'll take this year for what it is, a big transition year going from prep school to BC ahead of schedule, a team where ice time isn't just going to be handed out.
It’s weird to use lines they “especially with X players still available” and then post a ton of examples of players who haven’t played in the NHL yet.
There are literally no guarantees right now any of those guys turn out any better
WarriorofTime
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why don't teams just draft the best players that go after a certain pick in the draft every year? Are they stupid?
Hockeyville USA
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No one considered Protas, Battaglia, or Walton in that range before the draft. This is pure hindsight bias. The other guys that were considered in the late 1st round range were Greentree (who had slipped due to a poor U18, poor defensive efforts, and skating concerns), Hutson, Emery, Hemming, Artamonov, Basha, Stiga, Chernyshov, Badinka, Gridin, while others like Misa & Kiviharju were probably in the conversation as well.
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King'sPawn
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Maybe I'm late to the party, but here's my overall feelings:
- Comparisons to Thompson are skewed, as I feel Letourneau had a bigger adjustment going from AAA hockey to college hockey, versus Thompson being in the USNTDP. I think the growth from his D+1 to D+2 will paint a much better picture. So far, his arc is closer to Brian Boyle, who was drafted out of high school. This isn't to say Letourneau will have a Boyle-like trajectory, but...
- Even if he turns into Boyle, the dude carved out an NHL career. Do you hope to have your big first-round pick to turn into Thompson? Of course. But how many 25th overall picks play 800+ games? Heck, how many first-round picks play 800+ games?
- Another thing that screwed with Boyle is there were stretches in college he was used as a defenseman. This just changed his overall skillset. Who knows how things might have changed for Boyle if he could have focused on developing his skills as a forward. So, is it even a bad thing?
- Big players coming out of lower tier hockey just have additional hurdles. They just never had to work as hard as smaller players to get similar results, so the amped intensity is probably a culture shock. Further, you just can't hit at lower levels, as you usually get penalized. He's still learning to use his body in ways he was discouraged from in the past.
Tl;dr - expecting better production from your first-rounder is understandable. But I think it's too early to fairly judge his D+1 as "concerning" or "alarming."
If he's still in single digit points next season, I'd be much more concerned.
- Comparisons to Thompson are skewed, as I feel Letourneau had a bigger adjustment going from AAA hockey to college hockey, versus Thompson being in the USNTDP. I think the growth from his D+1 to D+2 will paint a much better picture. So far, his arc is closer to Brian Boyle, who was drafted out of high school. This isn't to say Letourneau will have a Boyle-like trajectory, but...
- Even if he turns into Boyle, the dude carved out an NHL career. Do you hope to have your big first-round pick to turn into Thompson? Of course. But how many 25th overall picks play 800+ games? Heck, how many first-round picks play 800+ games?
- Another thing that screwed with Boyle is there were stretches in college he was used as a defenseman. This just changed his overall skillset. Who knows how things might have changed for Boyle if he could have focused on developing his skills as a forward. So, is it even a bad thing?
- Big players coming out of lower tier hockey just have additional hurdles. They just never had to work as hard as smaller players to get similar results, so the amped intensity is probably a culture shock. Further, you just can't hit at lower levels, as you usually get penalized. He's still learning to use his body in ways he was discouraged from in the past.
Tl;dr - expecting better production from your first-rounder is understandable. But I think it's too early to fairly judge his D+1 as "concerning" or "alarming."
If he's still in single digit points next season, I'd be much more concerned.
You keep repeating this, but it is just not true. Comparisons and assessing/analyzing/evaluating context is a huge part of scouting. As are numbers and statistics. You might not like it, but it is just plain fact. Your snide comment asking if people just started watching prospects last year was particularly funny, considering that you’re trying to discount like half or more of what scouting actually entails.
There's a difference between "this year was never about the numbers" and finishing tied for 271st in Freshman scoring. He also got more ice time than you would think, BC rolled 4 lines pretty consistently
DaaaaB's
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All I'll say is you obviously have no idea what scouting entails if you think half or more is comparing them to previous players and looking at numbers.
That’s not even what I said. Read it again, carefully.
He sounds like Tyler Boucher part 2. Although, it was a pick in the 20s, 2/3 of which flop anyways, so not as big a deal as Boucher at #10.
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