If Lawrence went top 3 that would be the shock of the draft. Maybe as big or bigger of a shock than Beckett Sennecke going #3 on draft day.
Lawrence going top-3 would be as bad as Thomas Hickey going 4th in '07, a complete bolt out of the blue.
Sometimes these bets pay off, like with Sennecke, but in this case I think it'd be horrible for the Canucks.
Lawrence was a top-5 pick for me at the start of the year, and now he'd be #19 on my list and trending down.
If I'm the Canucks' GM, I take Malhotra and stop messing around.
If Malhotra is gone, take either Stenberg or McKenna and don't overcomplicate matters. McKenna and Stenberg are superior prospects to Malhotra right now, even though they play less important positions, and we can't understate how high their potential is.
The Canucks will likely be bad for years, so it's not like they absolutely HAVE to draft their new top center right now.
They could draft their top-gun center in 2027, with what will likely be another high pick.
Horvat was also playing in a better league and in a different role. The OHL was loaded back then compared to the watered down league that we see today. Horvat was also a much better all around player, with a better motor, better play without the puck, and more mature / responsible with the puck.
I find Malholtra to be a pretty reckless puck carrier for a guy touted as potentially the top center in his draft. He reminds me a bit of Taylor Hall without the elite skating ability and motor. That sort of hockey won't work very often at the next level. He doesn't strike me as a high scoring NHL pro, nor does his play away from the puck inspire confidence about his path as a 2 way guy. He's got a lot of work to do to become an NHL center, definitely a bit of a project.
He's got some projectable tools to be a solid NHLer, but I don't see elite tools - I wouldn't be shocked if he ends up being developed more as a PWF winger.
Respectfully, I disagree on a lot of what you've just said.
I actually prefer Malhotra as a prospect vs. Horvat in his draft year.
Prospect Horvat showed a lot of high-end tools but nothing elite, at all, which tanked my evaluation of his potential as a prospect.
I had Horvat about #11-12 at the time if I remember correctly (close to 70 years-old now, so maybe I'm remembering wrong), lower than where he ultimately ended up being drafted, and I did not see the first-line upside at all.
Whereas Malhotra's playmaking ability I would say is borderline elite as a skillset, and I think could form the basis to him being an actual first-liner in the NHL if he reaches his ceiling.
So yeah, I would say that prospect Horvat had lower projections on my part, but was admittedly "safer".
Except that on the top-end of the draft we have to really hone-in and favor ceiling over "safeness", which is why I prefer Malhotra over prospect Horvat.
Moving on, Malhotra does turn the puck over, and tries to do too much on his own, but he's very good in transition, and manages to enter the zone with possession consistently, using little quick pass-and-go plays with his teammates.
And that ability to enter with possession, with all of the versatile offensive skillset and passing that Malhotra has, will very likely make him a center in the NHL rather than a winger.
This is no Will Smith here, that is not especially good at retrieving his own pucks, or working below the hash marks.
Malhotra still has tons of work to put on in order to be a long-time center in the NHL, true, but I think he has a definite spot at center-ice in the pros, and possesses both a high ceiling and a high floor, which is why I like him so much this year.
I don't really watch the BCHL, and he was an undrafted ranking for me to start the year, but Malhotra's just been so good this season, so impressive, that I just kept improving his rank again and again, again, until he finished at #4 overall for me, behind McKenna, Stenberg, and Carels (in that order).