Agreed. The landscape always changes. We are seeing more teams in the prospective BUY mode including Sudbury if Musty has rescinded his trade request. We are looking at as many as seven teams in the Eastern Conference willing to be in buyer mode, albeit to differing degrees. It doesn’t matter how far they are willing to go to buy additional assets, it only matter that they are wanting to buy. It means potential assets are taken off the table, thus decreasing supply.
NCAA players may potentially present a positive impact but most of the ones in question are younger and less impactful than the 19 year old impact players most teams look for at this time of year. For every Montgomery, there will likely be 5-10 16 and 17 year olds that don’t crack the top half of a contender roster. I think we will start to see a greater impact to start next season. Players will be better able to align their studies accordingly.
I do disagree about the value of players early season vs the deadline. Admittedly, this season is a bit of an anomaly but players in the past would typically be cheaper early. This is the first year I can remember where impact players traded early were similarly priced to previous deadline prices. Guindon was pretty much bang on cost wise as other similar OA’s at last years deadline including Kressler, Maillet, Mayer, Dubois, Mancini, Peer etc. Previous seasons the cost for a player like Guindon in the summer was much less. George Diaco would be a good example. A 2nd and 3rd is far cheaper than the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th for Guindon.
Personally, I don’t’ think we will see a lessor price for a player like Musty vs Barlow or Rehkopf because of timing. I think we will see a higher cost because there is a higher level of demand and since most teams have certainty of competing now vs earlier in the season. Teams making these earlier trades need ceterainty of competing. There is risk associated to not only acquiring a player and not being a contender later but also whether they are acquiring the right type of player to fill a need. Most teams want to see a fuller picture of their teams strengths and weaknesses prior to making a serious trade commitment; therefore, prices at the deadline trend much higher. Although, this year may be an anomaly in that regard. We shall see where the prices get to this year but I have a feeling they will skew heavy considering they are still much lighter than what we see in the WHL and QMJHL.
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