brentashton
Registered User
- Jan 21, 2018
- 16,810
- 24,552
I took a speed reading course around 1982 when I was at university. It’s amazing how handy it continues to be!I get where you are coming from here.
Apologies in advance for the long resposne but I need to provide some context.
One of the things thats very apparent on here (and with most fans) is that they are very impatient. It is likely even worse with Oilers fans because we have lived with bad teams for a lot of years.
Its easy for all of us to get caught up emotionally with the reality of a recent game or recent string of games. Its happened to me too which is why I try (if possible) to wait a while before posting after a game.
So when evaluating a player I do try (not always successful though) to take a 20,000 foot view of things. Thats what I have tried to do with the team overall this season. Try to get some clarity regarding why we are seeing the results on the ice. Obviously that applies to evaluating players.
With forwards the evaluation process is shorter so we can get a sense about a forward (especially a winger) much quicker than other positions.
Defence and Goaltending require more time though. In terms of the defence I think that Emberson is doing really well considering that he hasnt quite played 100 NHL games yet. I thought one of the best comments on here (cant remember the poster) was about how young Dmen usually fade over the course of their first full season because they havent yet adjusted to the grind. Great comment IMO and I hope that a lot of posters saw that and take it into consideration if and when Embersons games starts to fade.
With Goalies its similar but because they are the last line of defence there is obviously more pressure on them to perform well each game. So in most cases (unless the goalie is uber talented) it takes time cultivate the mental toughness necessary to be a starter. So they are a backup at the NHL level for a significant period of time. That was the thinking for Skinner as well.
Due to the Campbell signing that plan was overturned. Skinner got exactly 13 games as a backup in 2021/22 and then was forced into the starting role in 2022/23.
Kevin Woodley is someone I really respect when it comes to breaking down goalies and in his opinion it takes multiple seasons (20 -30 games a season) as a backup in the NHL to properly prepare to be a starting goalie in the NHL.
Again...Skinner had 13 games. So if we remember that Emberson comment...players playing a tough position like defence and goalie can do well to start and then fade for a bit until they can adjust mentally to the grind.
That process is amplified for a goalie and Skinner didnt even have the luxury of having a couple of seasons to ramp up to adjusting to the mental and physical grind of being a starter.
He was thrust into it.
So the first year he was IMO very good. He started 48 games and had a sv% of 0.914 which is very good in the NHL for any starting goalie much less a rookie who was thrown into the position well before he should have been. He started 12 games in the playoffs (0.883 sv%) and he struggled under the heightened pressure and expectations. To be expected.
The next year he started to struggle a little here and there...started 57 games and had a sv% of 0.905.
In the playoffs he started 23 games and had a 0.901 sv%.
Now here we are in year 3 for Skinner as a starter and he has had trouble (like the entire team) at maintaining a high level of play.
When I take a 20,000 foot view of this player I have to include his very unconventional pathway to being an NHL starter. Virtually no mentering prior to being an NHL starter and the mentoring he did have was from Jack 'sadsack' Campbell. Not exactly ideal at all. As a matter of fact I would say that it was detrimental to have Jack Campbell involved in mentoring Skinner in any capacity. He was a dark cloud hanging over himself, Skinner and the team IMO.
So I think that also likely explains why Skinner has such a casual approach to any negativity...call it the anti Jack Campbell approach who used to have post game pressers that were cringeworthy to listen to.
So I if thats how Skinner can deflect from putting too much pressure on himself then I dont much care about it. I dont beleive for a second that he doesnt care.
So getting back to his play in net...again I defer to Kevin Woodley who sees an NHL starting goalie in Skinner. What he really needed was a capable starter ahead of him for a couple of seasons and the Campbell failure made sure that didnt happen.
As a plan B he needed a capable 1A/1B starter to help him adapt to being an NHL starter.
That didnt happen either. That is on management not Skinner.
So now we get to this teams defensive play.
I watch the games quite carefully and I usually have the game archived so I can watch things more than one time. I dont do that every time but I do look at plays more than once quite a bit especially when it comes to the goals against because I want to try and determine where the breakdown occured and who was responsible. Thats when I started to see just how many uncontested shots this team gives up. Then when I checked the HDSC stats I could see how they just werent granular enough. They werent providing accurate information. Those numbers didnt differentiate between a puck being slammed into a goalies pads fron 6 inches away from a shot in the mid to low slot. They also didnt differentiate between a contested and uncontested shot.
So the HDSC stats are almost (not quite) useless in determining with any accuracy the actual high danger events in a game. Thats when I realized how limited those stats were and yet they were being thrown around on here as definitive. They are anything but definitive...they are as I said barley useful.
So all of that leads me to looking at Skinners game a little differently. The defensive breakdowns this team has this season (for approx 2 and a half months so far) are mostly caused by poor puck magament (causing a odd man rush against) or poor coverage (causing an uncontested HD shot against).
These are scoring opportunities you just dont see contending teams like Florida and vegas giving up all that often...so their goalies dont have to deal with the fallout nearly as much.
Not with the Oilers though...Skinner has had to deal with a ton of that nonsense and when I factor in that he is still a goalie learning how to be an NHL starter (he has played 147 regular season games as a starter) I tend to cut him a little slack.
Thats why I find this repeating narrative on here blaming Skinner for everything so myopic.
Apparently though, on here, that justifies name calling because I (and some other posters) are not part of the collective negative opinion on Skinner. It really is like Junior High School.
I am going to highlight this part because it will surely get ignored....for me it wouldnt matter if the goalie was Skinner or any other goalie when I look at the big picture I would cut them some slack.
Its not about being a Skinner fan its about critically looking at everything in play.
Everything I detailed above.
When you do that its very clear....management f**ked this up.
Lastly you have to consider the pay sacle...Skinner isnt even getting paid to be a legit NHL starting goalie and yet thats the expectation. If this team was so concerned about goaltending then they wouldnt have the lowest allotment of cap space left for their goaltending....yet thats what they have.
They would at least be willing to pay for a capable 1A/1B starting goalie to support their still very inexperienced starter.
So why would I get pissed at Skinner for that?
That is also on Management.
I have no problem being in the minority on here so IMO I think Skinner does have enough tools to be a starter. I think he needs to trim his weight by 20 lbs (to help his lateral movement) and I also think that he needs a better quality tandem goalie to help mentor him but apparently the team doesnt feel that way.
So now we have Skinner and Pickard in net going into the playoffs. The ONLY way I see that working is for this team to start playing the structured hockey they have shown that they are capable of playing.
I have said this many times...if this team can play shitdown hockey they have more high end offensive talent than any other team so they should win most games.
That for me is the key to winning in the playoffs so I am trying to focus on looking forward...not back.
Good for you if you managed to hang in there until the end of this post.
Fire away.
I also generally respect an expert like Kevin Woodley’s professional view as they know more than most here on a chat site. That said, I also equally do the same for Steve Valiquette from Clearsight Analytics. I’m not sure if you listened or read anything from him but it’s interesting how diametrically different they are on their respective assessments of Skinner. Valiquette has an equally good opinion.
Not going to parse or challenge your points. I respect what you are saying. I will though take one part of your response and say something to it.
So now we have Skinner and Pickard in net going into the playoffs. The ONLY way I see that working is for this team to start playing the structured hockey they have shown that they are capable of playing.
You’ve said it and I think it was @bellagiobob that also suggested something similar. This is what we are, at this point and we have to move forward. After the playoffs are complete, depending on whether they are champions or not, I fully believe a post mortem will be done on the state of goaltending and the organization will do what it feels needs to be done. We will all debate those changes (or status quo) at that time, when it’s more appropriate.
This is our team now and as fans we will live and die with them for the rest of the season.
PS - @Drivesaitl as a son of a stonemason/bricklayer, you of all people should appreciate the effort to build a wall. Not saying it’s solid, plumb, or otherwise well crafted but it’s a wall, all the same.
