Atlantic Division
It’s no surprise Florida is bringing back, essentially, the same team that got them to the Cup Final last spring. They grade out as the 3rd best team in the league per our model (less than a point behind Carolina), and even after few additions this summer it’s clear they’re still one of the Cup favorites. Sure, a few of their players may be due for some “regression” (the bad way), but few teams bring a lineup as solid heading into ’24-25. The Leafs, on the other hand, tried their best to bring in a bunch of old guys and questionable free agents but still can’t stop Auston Matthews from impacting the model. Ok, Marner, Nylander, and Tavares are pretty good. Interestingly, Toronto actually improved a bit compared to our projections from last season, which may be the most surprising result among the Atlantic.
The real story, however, is The Sabres. 3rd in the Atlantic? Is that allowed? Look, they’ve only improved by 2.2 points compared to their projection from last season, and it doesn’t matter that they did very little this summer or that they face some very legitimate questions about their roster (UPL for Vezina), all they needed was their peers to fall off. Boston, Detroit, and Tampa really are doing some work here in the overall preseason projections among Atlantic teams. Tampa isn’t that surprising given the shakeup this summer and overall age heading into next season, but Boston (even with the assumption that Swayman will sign today) falls off quite heavily compared with last season. It’s not too surprising given their lack of depth outside of a few key players (Pastrnak, McAvoy, Marchand). I’m just preparing for another absurd goalie tandem year that will make us look ridiculous when they are first in the league and I run my evaluation for these projections in a few months.