Seravalli: Buffalo may not have a choice but to trade Peterka

[Jersey Fan 12]

He was discussing this with Craig and Andrew on After the Whistle (formerly The Instigators) the other day.

Came across more as spitballing than sound, solid information.

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

Why does Buffalo always seem to have issues with so many players etc. Seems there is always drama. It is no wonder they never make the playoffs. So unstable for one reason or another.

Chicken or the egg. Do they lose because they're unstable? Or are they unstable because they're losing?

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Chicken or the egg. Do they lose because they're unstable? Or are they unstable because they're losing?

They lose because they refuse to hire people with tremendous credibility

 

[dkollidas]

Peterka & 9th Overall
For
Kesselring & 4th Overall

OR

Peterka
For
Kesselring & Crouse

 

[toddkaz]

They lose because they refuse to hire people with tremendous credibility

It doesn't help the leafs.

 

[CowbellConray]

Peterka & 9th Overall
For
Kesselring & 4th Overall

OR

Peterka
For
Kesselring & Crouse

Crouse is a negative with his contract and Peterka is worth more than Kesselring

And I really like Kesselring and want him on Buffalo

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

It doesn't help the leafs.

I mean, they are In the mix every year, the only thing the Sabres are ever in the mix for is the draft lottery

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Crouse is a negative with his contract and Peterka is worth more than Kesselring

And I really like Kesselring and want him on Buffalo

Crouse's production was way down this year, calling his contract negative off an outlier season is pretty ridiculous.

 

[DJN21]

Peterka & 9th Overall
For
Kesselring & 4th Overall

OR

Peterka
For
Kesselring & Crouse

Id do either preferably the second one

 

[CowbellConray]

Crouse's production was way down this year, calling his contract negative off an outlier season is pretty ridiculous.

2 years left, just had an 18 point season where he was dropped to 13 minutes a night. He is Jordan greenway, and frankly at 4.3M it doesn’t make any sense to bring him in. Utah if they trade him it’s to unload the contract. Maybe he carries light value - a 3rd or 4th. But when we are talking about trading him in a package for a young player, bringing a guy with term and a higher cap hit than his production this year is not something a GM would look for.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

2 years left, just had an 18 point season where he was dropped to 13 minutes a night. He is Jordan greenway, and frankly at 4.3M it doesn’t make any sense to bring him in. Utah if they trade him it’s to unload the contract. Maybe he carries light value - a 3rd or 4th. But when we are talking about trading him in a package for a young player, bringing a guy with term and a higher cap hit than his production this year is not something a GM would look for.

Did you read? The 18 point season is clearly an outlier. He 2 previous seasons he had over 40 points, and before that 34

 

[AKL]

Did you read? The 18 point season is clearly an outlier. He 2 previous seasons he had over 40 points, and before that 34

He was getting some better opportunities he probably won't get now that Utah's young guys are starting to establish themselves. Still a really good player though.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

He was getting some better opportunities he probably won't get now that Utah's young guys are starting to establish themselves. Still a really good player though.

I don't exactly agree with that. It's not like he was relying on the powerplay for his production. Also he's a good enough player that in a depth role his production should go back up as opponents prioritize shutting down the other guys instead.

I think he's a pretty safe bet to bounce back to at least 30 points next year, probably 35.

 

[CowbellConray]

Did you read? The 18 point season is clearly an outlier. He 2 previous seasons he had over 40 points, and before that 34

Yes, and he scored 18 last year in a reduced role, his defensive metrics were worse, and he was a pretty clear net negative for his team. Can we agree on that?
I understand, you like the guy - and think he can rebound. sure, he could, but Kevyn Adams isn’t looking at crouse after an 18 point season and saying “let’s trade my young top 6 winger who has good value around the league for the guy who couldn’t be effective on a team who was just as bad as us last year.”

Adding crouse to a trade is not a positive to the value Buffalo is receiving. They already have a Lawson crouse in Jordan Greenway.

If Utah wants to dump crouse for a mid round pick in a solo deal, they can probably find a taker. But not in a trade for a strong talent like Peterka

 

[truthbluth]

What’s funny is that I think a lot of Sabres will be finding new homes this offseason. I’m nearly certain Peterka won’t be one of them.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

When the outlier is the last season played then its only an outlier if he returns to previous form.

You are just speculating and you really have no clue.

Sure that would be a fine argument if the stats backed up that his production matched his expected production. But it didn't, and it really wasn't close at all.
At 5v5
1.97 GF/60
2.71 xGF/60

Shooting percentage down on 5.3% from his average over the previous 3 seasons

 

[toddkaz]

Sure that would be a fine argument if the stats backed up that his production matched his expected production. But it didn't, and it really wasn't close at all.
At 5v5
1.97 GF/60
2.71 xGF/60

Shooting percentage down on 5.3% from his average over the previous 3 seasons

and again, if it doesn't return then because the outlier is his last season it becomes a trend and not an outlier.

You are just speculating. The whole meaning of an outlier is that it lies in the middle of the stastics not the end.

It could also mean his play is slowing down or injuries.

I bring it up because look at Elias Pettersson. One could claim his season this year is an outlier but he had a knee injury so there is no guarantee he returns to form.

There is a risk there you just refuse to acknowledge it.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

and again, if it doesn't return then because the outlier is his last season it becomes a trend and not an outlier.

You are just speculating. The whole meaning of an outlier is that it lies in the middle of the stastics not the end.

It could also mean his play is slowing down or injuries.

I bring it up because look at Elias Pettersson. One could claim his season this year is an outlier but he had a knee injury so there is no guarantee he returns to form.

There is a risk there you just refuse to acknowledge it.

You go with the bigger sample size 100% of the time.

In this case the much MUCH bigger sample size says he's a 20+ goal guy.

Teams that don't do that make BAD mistakes, case in point Gilmour to the Leafs.

Gary Leeman had scored 50 goals.

Gary Leeman became the key piece to the Gilmour trade

Gary Leeman never scored 50 goals again because Gary Leeman was not a true 50 goal scorer.

Go with the bigger sample size

 

[toddkaz]

You go with the bigger sample size 100% of the time.

In this case the much MUCH bigger sample size says he's a 20+ goal guy.

Teams that don't do that make BAD mistakes, case in point Gilmour to the Leafs.

Gary Leeman had scored 50 goals.

Gary Leeman became the key piece to the Gilmour trade

Gary Leeman never scored 50 goals again because Gary Leeman was not a true 50 goal scorer.

Go with the bigger sample size

Oh so then why didn't anyone sign Phil Kessel? Thats one hell of a sample size. One could have said his 8 goals and 14 goals were outliers.

You could list 100s of players who scored 20-30 goals who had "outlier" season's never to score 30 again.

Or if a player is injured and doesn't return to form you trade for him and no you have made a BAD mistake.

Its not cut and dry like you think.

Bobby Ryan scored 30 goals 4 years in a row then scored 11. Outlier? Never scored 30 again.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

I get an outlier year can happen either way both hood and bad.

The problem is when it's the last full season

There are concerns. There are some pkayers who fo start to fall off a cliff at 27 or 28.

Looking st his stats....his PP production disappeared which has been around 25% if his production over the prior 3 seasons

I see parallels with Wayne simmonds.. he was young 3rd liner in LA who played 2st line in PHL. His 5vt went up a little due to linemates/ Off draws. But point increase can be explained by PP production change. That turned him from a 30-35 pt player to 60+ pt player.

If you are trading a player with upside like Peterka, you better br getting fair value in return. Crouse has too much risk/ uncertainty right now.

Hes not returning a player like peterka in a deal where he is thr main piece. He can be included as an additional on because if salary balancing similar to trades involving high salary players

Not one of my posts have been about whether Buffalo should "take the risk," all I've argued is the absurdity of calling him a cap dump

 

[toddkaz]

Not one of my posts have been about whether Buffalo should "take the risk," all I've argued is the absurdity of calling him a cap dump

We all get what you are saying but there is no guarantee Crouse returns to 20+ goals. He might, he might not.

The issue is you portray it as a given.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

We all get what you are saying but there is no guarantee Crouse returns to 20+ goals. He might, he might not.

The issue is you portray it as a given.

You are right, there is no guarantee. But the stats say he should have produced at a much higher rate than he actually did. Nearly an extra goal for for every 60 minutes

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Sorry I’ve talked bad about your boyfriend. I’m sure if he gets traded it’s for mega value!

Relax man, we just have different opinions. I’m not a troll for explaining why he doesn’t carry a ton of value in a deal for Peterka. He would be a zero value piece if not negative when you take the Sabres roster situation into effect

Im not even a fan of either team. I totally get if Buffalo doesn't view him as a player they would target. That's totally fine. I took issue with calling him a cap dump, which he's not. Lots of teams would love to add a player like him if made available. He's like Will Cuylle

 

[toddkaz]

You are right, there is no guarantee. But the stats say he should have produced at a much higher rate than he actually did. Nearly an extra goal for for every 60 minutes

His point totals and points per game has also trended down 3 years in a row.

So if you like at trends there is that too.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

His point totals and points per game has also trended down 3 years in a row.

So if you like at trends there is that too.

34 in 65 is a 42 point pace, he had an uptick in 22/23 to 45 points in 77 games, and then went back to 42 points in 23/24. This year that number completely fell off a cliff to 18 in 81. That's not a trend, that's an anomaly.