Value of: BUF Trades with CHI, MIN, WPG

[Digitalbooya]

i see him his a second pairing LD quite easily. solid defense, decent offensive upside. shouldnt sign for 6m like brodin or dumba but he is still top4.

I cringe at the though of him in the top 4 for a year. He's a #4 on a mediocre to bad defense.

It's not arguably the best 2-way line in hockey. It is one of, or arguably the best, checking line in hockey. It's only "two-way" in the Lemaire sense of the phrase, where defense vastly outweighs the offense.

It's 2 way as in they provide offense while also shutting down other team's top lines.

Not that it matters, but I've shown a way that Minnesota could keep both Fiala and Dumba. So you don't have to trade Dumba to keep Fiala

 

[RefsIdeas]

I cringe at the though of him in the top 4 for a year. He's a #4 on a mediocre to bad defense.

It's 2 way as in they provide offense while also shutting down other team's top lines.

Not that it matters, but I've shown a way that Minnesota could keep both Fiala and Dumba. So you don't have to trade Dumba to keep Fiala

Could I see this? I've played around on CapFriendly and I didn't see a way the Wild could keep both unless Fiala accepted an under-marked deal and/or they go into next year with two very cheap goalies.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

It's 2 way as in they provide offense while also shutting down other team's top lines.

Not that it matters, but I've shown a way that Minnesota could keep both Fiala and Dumba. So you don't have to trade Dumba to keep Fiala

The most productive player on that line was ~146th in 5v5 scoring, the least productive player was ~315th. Checking lines aren't completely devoid of offensive ability anymore. Maybe it's just semantics, but calling them a "two-way" line just seems like massive insult to guys like Bergeron, O'Reilly, Lindholm, etc... and the lines that they're a part of, let alone the "arguably the best" claim.

Yeah, we could unload Talbot, Kulikov and Jost and probably get pretty close for this next year, but it'll cost us Zuccarello the next summer (maybe not a deal breaker). The simpler decision might just be cutting ties with someone that has underperformed in 4 out of the 4 years of his current contract, and is now looking for another one.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Could I see this? I've played around on CapFriendly and I didn't see a way the Wild could keep both unless Fiala accepted an under-marked deal and/or they go into next year with two very cheap goalies.

On HFWild:

Here's the (unlikely) salty runback:

Middleton -> late 2nd/3rd
Kulikov -> 3rd
Jost -> 3rd
3rd -> Filip Gustavsson (or insert another goalie/cheap UFA)

Fiala: $7M x 7 years (he comes down a bit in AAV for the 7 year term)
Dewar: $.850M x 2 years

Kap(9)-Hartman(1.7)-Zucc(6)
Greenway(3)-Ek(5.25)-Foligno(3.1)
Fiala(7)-Gaudreau(1.2)-Boldy(.881)
Dewar(.850)-Hentges(.855)-Duhaime(.750)
Shaw(.750)

$40.336M

Brodin(6)-Dumba(6)
Goligoski(2)-Spurgeon(7.575)
Merrill(1.2)-Addison(.795)
Mermis(.750)

$24.32M

Talbot (3.667)
Gustavsson/Other (.788)

$4.455M

Dead Cap: $12.744M
Total Cap: $81.855
Cap Ceiling: $82.5M

Am I missing something here? I feel like we can absolutely bring back all three of Zucc, Dumba and Fiala based on the above.

Plenty of room to give Fiala $7-7.5M with whatever term he wants. You get even more room if you trade Talbot and bring back Fleury at $3M.

Of course, next year will be a shit show trying to sign Boldy, unless the plan is to just let Dumba walk and Boldy gets that cap. Maybe they trade Greenway or Zuccarello.

I for sure don't like the way our defense is trending from elite to mediocre. With Dumba gone it only gets worse.

 

[Digitalbooya]

The most productive player on that line was ~146th in 5v5 scoring, the least productive player was ~315th. Checking lines aren't completely devoid of offensive ability anymore. Maybe it's just semantics, but calling them a "two-way" line just seems like massive insult to guys like Bergeron, O'Reilly, Lindholm, etc... and the lines that they're a part of, let alone the "arguably the best" claim.

Yeah, we could unload Talbot, Kulikov and Jost and probably get pretty close for this next year, but it'll cost us Zuccarello the next summer (maybe not a deal breaker). The simpler decision might just be cutting ties with someone that has underperformed in 4 out of the 4 years of his current contract, and is now looking for another one.

It's interesting that you brought up O'Reilly and Bergeron. O'Reilly's line with Saad and Perron played almost the exact same minutes as Greenway-Ek-Foligno. At 5v5, the Ek line scored 25 goals and gave up 5. O'Reilly's line scored 15 and gave up 10. Bergeron's line with Marchand and Debrusk played about 150 less minutes and scored 17 and gave up 8.

Yes, the Greenway-Ek-Foligno line is one of the best two way lines in the NHL.

I don't get this whole "underperformed" argument that you are making. If he was playing like a 50+ point defenseman similar to a few years ago he would probably command $9M per year on his next contract. And it's not like he's been put in a position to rack up points like back then (1st PP unit, o zone starts). He's playing shutdown minutes with Brodin.

 

[RefsIdeas]

On HFWild:

Plenty of room to give Fiala $7-7.5M with whatever term he wants. You get even more room if you trade Talbot and bring back Fleury at $3M.

Of course, next year will be a shit show trying to sign Boldy, unless the plan is to just let Dumba walk and Boldy gets that cap. Maybe they trade Greenway or Zuccarello.

I for sure don't like the way our defense is trending from elite to mediocre. With Dumba gone it only gets worse.

Don't teams run a 23 man roster? That 7M for Fiala is awfully low. Evolving Hockey has his projection at 8yrs/9.4m. I think that's probably high, but going under 8m seems like a non-starter IMO.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

I cringe at the though of him in the top 4 for a year. He's a #4 on a mediocre to bad defense.

It's 2 way as in they provide offense while also shutting down other team's top lines.

Not that it matters, but I've shown a way that Minnesota could keep both Fiala and Dumba. So you don't have to trade Dumba to keep Fiala

He is just fine as our #4. i dont see the issue with him next to Spurgeon. that pairing was not complete garbage.

 

[Bazeek]

Don't teams run a 23 man roster? That 7M for Fiala is awfully low. Evolving Hockey has his projection at 8yrs/9.4m. I think that's probably high, but going under 8m seems like a non-starter IMO.

$7m for Fiala doesn't strike me as realistic. I think it'll be around $8m, +/- about a quarter million, for 6+ years.

That said, the whole idea is mostly moot when management has made its intentions regarding Fiala pretty clear: they are going to trade him. That doesn't rule out also trading Dumba for other reasons, but opening the door on an extension for Fiala isn't going to be a factor. Offering a pair of 2nds for Dumba+ isn't likely to go anywhere.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Don't teams run a 23 man roster? That 7M for Fiala is awfully low. Evolving Hockey has his projection at 8yrs/9.4m. I think that's probably high, but going under 8m seems like a non-starter IMO.

Most *normal* teams run a 23 man roster.

If Fiala is expecting close to Kaprizov's contract then he can go. Minnesota cannot afford two contracts that large when the dead cap swells to almost $15M after this year.

 

[Digitalbooya]

He is just fine as our #4. i dont see the issue with him next to Spurgeon. that pairing was not complete garbage.

Spurgeon carried him. The only positive aspect to him is physicality. Statistically, the Goligoski-Spurgeon pairing performed better than the Middleton-Spurgeon pairing.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

Spurgeon carried him. The only positive aspect to him is physicality. Statistically, the Goligoski-Spurgeon pairing performed better than the Middleton-Spurgeon pairing.

is the sample size of those 2 pairings really big enough to discuss yet?

 

[Digitalbooya]

is the sample size of those 2 pairings really big enough to discuss yet?

500 minutes for Goligoski-Spurgeon
240 minutes for Middleton-Spurgeon

Good enough for me.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

500 minutes for Goligoski-Spurgeon
240 minutes for Middleton-Spurgeon

Good enough for me.

those middleton minutes include playoffs or no?

 

[Panthaz89]

To be fair NOONE thought Buffalo got really good value for Eichel, or Ryan O Reilly for that matter.

PLD returned Laine AND Roslovic.

Are you suggesting Quinn, a really good prospect, is better than Laine, who was already a 40 goal scorer in the NHL? Talk about overvaluing.

Pretty much every Sabres fans liked the Eichel trade except the conditions on the picks which was kind of silly when Vegas was seemingly cruising to another playoff run by that time. Most Sabres fans were disgusted with the ROR trade.

 

[threeVo]

Pretty much every Sabres fans liked the Eichel trade except the conditions on the picks which was kind of silly when Vegas was seemingly cruising to another playoff run by that time. Most Sabres fans were disgusted with the ROR trade.

Yea most Sabres fans held that they should be getting the equivalent of 4 1st round picks as a return, and they got very close. Tuch = Easily worth a 1st+ with his contract, Krebs former 1st, a '22 1st, and a 2nd. If they Sabres flipped Tuch they could get a haul considering his age and contract if they planned on doing a full tear down futures hoarding. They dont need to.

On the flip side the ROR trade was a failure not getting Robert Thomas back on top of taking 2 usless bums in Sobotka and Berglund. The 1st round pick in the deal is likely to walk for nothing after his college season.

 

[PatLaFontaineASMR]

Yea most Sabres fans held that they should be getting the equivalent of 4 1st round picks as a return, and they got very close. Tuch = Easily worth a 1st+ with his contract, Krebs former 1st, a '22 1st, and a 2nd. If they Sabres flipped Tuch they could get a haul considering his age and contract if they planned on doing a full tear down futures hoarding. They dont need to.

On the flip side the ROR trade was a failure not getting Robert Thomas back on top of taking 2 usless bums in Sobotka and Berglund. The 1st round pick in the deal is likely to walk for nothing after his college season.

ROR has sorta worked out with Tage though. Taking Ryan Johnson when the next 3 picks were Pinto, Kaliyev, and Bobby Brink was rough.

 

[tsujimoto74]

ROR has sorta worked out with Tage though. Taking Ryan Johnson when the next 3 picks were Pinto, Kaliyev, and Bobby Brink was rough.

Johnson is a good prospect. I think he's fine value where we picked him. The question is whether he'll sign.

 

[PatLaFontaineASMR]

Johnson is a good prospect. I think he's fine value where we picked him. The question is whether he'll sign.

Yea he's a fine prospect, we just had way more of a need for some forward prospects at the time.

 

[threeVo]

Yea he's a fine prospect, we just had way more of a need for some forward prospects at the time.

I dont mind the pick but the chance he doesnt even sign makes it a waste. A top line center we just finally got lucky with Thompson. If Tommer was a bust we gave away ROR for essentially nothing

 

[tbcwpg]

DeMelo isn't good. If he's a top 4 d-man on your squad, your D corps isn't good enough - hence Winnipeg's D.
3 mil for a replacement level D is crazy. With Heinola, Samberg, Kovacevic et al. in the waits, if you can shed DeMelo for nothing I'd be all over it.

As for the initial Buff/Wpg trade PLD would be a no-go there.

DeMelo has improved every defenceman he played with this season. Plus he plays on the right, while only Kovacevic of your list plays on the right. I'd sooner move Dillon or Schmidt than DeMelo at this point.

 

[jmelm]

NOTE: I'm not saying that any one of these trades in particular should happen. I'm just trying to get a sense of how other fanbases value these players in a trade. I'm also not saying that all of these trades should happen (i.e I don't think the Sabres should acquire Dumba AND Murphy).

BUF Receives:

Connor Murphy

CHI Receives:

FLA 1st round pick (28th overall)

Reasoning: Chicago may be last in the entire league if you rank each franchise's future potential. They need to rebuild and acquire picks. I'm not sure how his late season concussion will impact his value in trades. I've seen Blackhawks fans mention they'd accept anything from a 2nd round pick, to that he's untouchable and part of the future core, to that he would require a 1st + 2nd round pick. Seems like this is a middle ground. Buffalo needs a veteran RHD to pair with Owen Power, and IMO Connor Murphy is an ideal person to pair him with.

BUF Receives:

Matt Dumba
Cam Talbot

MIN Receives:

BUF 2022 2nd round pick
PHI 2023 2nd round pick

Reasoning: Minny needs to clear cap, Buffalo needs to acquire cap. I've seen Wild fans saying that they'd be happy to unload Dumba for a 2nd, but in reality I think he's probably worth more than that (yes, I know he's a UFA at the end of the year). I believe that Bill Guerin probably doesn't have much of an apetite to move him - but he may not have a choice. Talbot is mostly a cap-dump, I don't think he's worth a 2nd round pick and probably has close to negative value due to his salary cap number. Buffalo needs two goalies and he would be a more than adequate 1B type of guy for a year. Like with Murphy, I could see Dumba being a great partner for Owen Power, and one I think the Sabres would have interest in extending if Dumba agreed.

BUF Receives:

Pierre-Luc Dubois
Dylan DeMelo

WPG Receives:

BUF 2022 1st round pick (9OA)
Isak Rosen
Casey Mittelstadt
Henri Jokiharju

Reasoning: I've seen WPG fans go back and forth on PLD in regards to if they believe they'll actually shop him in the offseason. I also can see plenty of Sabres fans yelling at me that this is an overpayment, and WPG fans saying that they don't want "spare parts" and such, which is why it may be a good proposal. In reality, I doubt this trade gets done (I don't see the Sabres owners acquiring a player like PLD after their Eichel experience) but I do think he fits well with the Sabres. Him and Cozens played very well together at the WJC, and despite Tage Thompson's emergance this year, I still have doubts that he's a true 1C (probably a 2C on a playoff team). From the Jets perspective - they're sort of in no mans land. They're not good enough to compete, but they're not bad enough to tank or be at the bottom of the draft order. Acquiring 9OA while having 14OA this year, in addition to acquiring Rosen (13th player selected last year, struggled with injuries + lack of ice time this year) Mittelstadt (former 7th OA, struggled with injuries but was one of the Sabres best player the last 10 games or so) and Jokiharju (23 vs DeMelo's 29) provides them with a great boost to begin a re-tool. Along with a Wheeler/Scheifele trade, they'll acquire a ton of young prospects and talent to build around. I considered putting Krebs in the trade proposal instead of Mittelstadt, but I think that'll be a non-starter for the Sabres (and most of their fans on HFBoards) but in reality I could see him being included if there was a contract extension agreed to prior to the trade.

BUF is giving up way too many futures with the WPG trade. I'm not saying the value isn't there, I'm saying the timing isn't right. Trading Joker for DeMelo is one step forward, one step back -- it does nothing to further BUF's defense.

PLD will command a premium because he's a centre. BUF already has depth at C (Thompson, Cozens, Krebs, Mittelstadt), so while I know one of them could be moved to W, you're still paying that big C premium that's going to really screw up the solid, deep & broad way in which BUF is building their core around age-appropriate & age-similar players.

Even if you took out DeMelo, unless WPG loves Rosen, they wouldn't trade PLD for Mitts/Joker/Rosen/9th. They're not looking to rebuild, they're looking to compete now. So any discussion of a PLD trade should start with the ask from WPG being Dylan Cozens ++, and BUF should not make that trade because Cozens has similar upside but is 3 years younger and we know fits well with the rest of the Sabres core in terms of age, contract status & outlook, and locker room chemistry. I would not mess with that.

As for the others: I'm not so enamoured with Connor Murphy. He's a solid player, but I wouldn't give up a 1st rounder for him. I'd give up a 2nd + 3rd for him. Otherwise, better to package the 1st and go with an even better player, which brings me to....

Matt Dumba & Minny -- forget about Talbot. Talbot has positive trade value and there will be a lot of teams interested IF Minny trades him. But he may well end up staying in MIN and Fleury moves on. Better for BUF to see if they can get a goalie in UFA before moving assets for Talbot. He would cost at least a 2nd rounder, and probably something else (a B-/C+ prospect or 3rd/4th rounder).

Regarding Dumba: IF (big IF) he waives his NTC or BUF isn't on it, he is going to cost A LOT to get. He's far more valuable than Connor Murphy. So start with that the 16th overall pick and add Jokiharju, and possibly a little something extra. Or maybe it's #28 +Jokiharju + 41 or Rosen or another prospect (i.e. Bloom).

But as much as I love Dumba and think he would be a great fit on the Sabres: between Power + Dahlin (who both need new contracts in 2 years, and we know how much top pairing Dmen get) + Samuelsson (who should get a long term deal in the 4.5M range), trading a bunch of assets for a guy in Dumba who is a UFA in 1 year and is going to cost north of $7M to re-sign just doesn't set the Sabres up for an ideal long term cap situation. You can only have so many Dmen making north of $7M and the Sabres have 2 1st overall picks who are going to get paid a lot in 2 years.

BUF should continue to grow organically from within, let the young kids mature and the prospects develop into players, and add around the edges with some astute low + mid level UFA signings. And any assets that are traded should be moved from a position of relative organization depth (such as moving Mittelstadt because of the C depth) and not from a position of relative weakness (such as moving a RHD in Jokiharju).

 

[PatLaFontaineASMR]

BUF is giving up way too many futures with the WPG trade. I'm not saying the value isn't there, I'm saying the timing isn't right. Trading Joker for DeMelo is one step forward, one step back -- it does nothing to further BUF's defense.

PLD will command a premium because he's a centre. BUF already has depth at C (Thompson, Cozens, Krebs, Mittelstadt), so while I know one of them could be moved to W, you're still paying that big C premium that's going to really screw up the solid, deep & broad way in which BUF is building their core around age-appropriate & age-similar players.
Even if you took out DeMelo, unless WPG loves Rosen, they wouldn't trade PLD for Mitts/Joker/Rosen/9th. They're not looking to rebuild, they're looking to compete now. So any discussion of a PLD trade should start with the ask from WPG being Dylan Cozens ++, and BUF should not make that trade because Cozens has similar upside but is 3 years younger and we know fits well with the rest of the Sabres core in terms of age, contract status & outlook, and locker room chemistry. I would not mess with that.

If PLD is being traded it's because they can't work out a long term deal. If that's the case, he won't command a premium.

ROR in a similar situation / same age / slightly better production got the 31st pick + Grigorenko + Zadorov + Compher. A similar trade would be 28th pick + Mitts + Jokiharju + Poltapov.

 

[jmelm]

If PLD is being traded it's because they can't work out a long term deal. If that's the case, he won't command a premium.

ROR in a similar situation / same age / slightly better production got the 31st pick + Grigorenko + Zadorov + Compher. A similar trade would be 28th pick + Mitts + Jokiharju + Poltapov.

Yes, but just because ROR got a particular return years ago, doesn't necessarily mean that's the return WPG is going to get NOW.

The package you outlined was, at the time, primarily about young players & futures. WPG has a core that is SMACK in the middle of their competitive window. They need to try to win over the next 2-3 years before Schief, Wheeler and Helley may be gone.

So what I'm saying is -- value aside -- WPG would be looking for players ready to contribute NOW. Not Isaak Rosen, a late 1st round pick, Poltapov, etc. I'm not talking about value, I'm talking about fit and timing.

However, if WPG decides they're going to do a big retool and take a few steps back, and trades Scheiffele, PLD, maybe Helley if he won't want to stick around for that, etc., THEN we can talk about a future based package.

And yes: there are still other teams who are desperate for C depth, unlike Buffalo, and they would certainly be willing to pay a big price to get one. I don't know why it would make sense for BUF to spend ton of assets to out-bid one of those other teams (and that's if WPG wants futures, which I addressed).

Also, if I'm BUF: if PLD asks to be moved or doesn't want to commit long term to WPG, that will be the second time he's moving on. If I'm BUF, I don't want to give up a ton of high value assets (and players like Joker or others who we know fit like a glove) to acquire a player who will have twice sought greener grass. There's special locker room chemistry going on in BUF right now and I wouldn't want to mess with that for a player who isn't absolutely required and also can cause big cap complications. He will want to be paid like a #1 C, but so should Thompson and in the not too distant future, so will Cozens, etc.

 

[PatLaFontaineASMR]

Yes, but just because ROR got a particular return years ago, doesn't necessarily mean that's the return WPG is going to get NOW.

The package you outlined was, at the time, primarily about young players & futures. WPG has a core that is SMACK in the middle of their competitive window. They need to try to win over the next 2-3 years before Schief, Wheeler and Helley may be gone.

So what I'm saying is -- value aside -- WPG would be looking for players ready to contribute NOW. Not Isaak Rosen, a late 1st round pick, Poltapov, etc. I'm not talking about value, I'm talking about fit and timing.

However, if WPG decides they're going to do a big retool and take a few steps back, and trades Scheiffele, PLD, maybe Helley if he won't want to stick around for that, etc., THEN we can talk about a future based package.

And yes: there are still other teams who are desperate for C depth, unlike Buffalo, and they would certainly be willing to pay a big price to get one. I don't know why it would make sense for BUF to spend ton of assets to out-bid one of those other teams (and that's if WPG wants futures, which I addressed).

Also, if I'm BUF: if PLD asks to be moved or doesn't want to commit long term to WPG, that will be the second time he's moving on. If I'm BUF, I don't want to give up a ton of high value assets (and players like Joker or others who we know fit like a glove) to acquire a player who will have twice sought greener grass. There's special locker room chemistry going on in BUF right now and I wouldn't want to mess with that for a player who isn't absolutely required and also can cause big cap complications. He will want to be paid like a #1 C, but so should Thompson and in the not too distant future, so will Cozens, etc.

If PLD is not interested in singing long term with the Jets, they likely aren't gonna be getting a big roster player back, unless it's someone in the same situation. Like a Fiala. Mitts and Joki are players on an NHL roster though. They aren't prospects. The only prospect is Poltapov.

"And yes: there are still other teams who are desperate for C depth, unlike Buffalo, and they would certainly be willing to pay a big price to get one. I don't know why it would make sense for BUF to spend ton of assets to out-bid one of those other teams (and that's if WPG wants futures, which I addressed)."

A team would only trade for PLD if he's interested in singing long term with that team. If Arizona offers a better package, but PLD has no interest, then they won't trade for him. It really limits his market. It's why ROR didn't get an amazing return, despite being a young top 6 center who was a Selke candidate. Now if PLD would want to sign long term in Buffalo I have no idea.

"Also, if I'm BUF: if PLD asks to be moved or doesn't want to commit long term to WPG, that will be the second time he's moving on. If I'm BUF, I don't want to give up a ton of high value assets (and players like Joker or others who we know fit like a glove) to acquire a player who will have twice sought greener grass. There's special locker room chemistry going on in BUF right now and I wouldn't want to mess with that for a player who isn't absolutely required and also can cause big cap complications. He will want to be paid like a #1 C, but so should Thompson and in the not too distant future, so will Cozens, etc."

I think it's a worthy gamble for Buffalo. When we traded for ROR he also had some lockerroom concern rumors. He's a guy that had great chemistry with Cozens on team Canada. We are way under the cap floor as it is right now. If we're gonna spend cap I'd rather spend it on a top 6 C compared to overpaying for some vet in FA.

 

[JUSTGIROUXIT]

DeMelo has improved every defenceman he played with this season. Plus he plays on the right, while only Kovacevic of your list plays on the right. I'd sooner move Dillon or Schmidt than DeMelo at this point.

That's a fair assessment.

Honestly think Jets would be best served showing all 3 the door if possible. Dillon provides some snarl and toughness on the back end which is and would be lacking otherwise. Just think its time you let youth grab spots and see what you have back there. The way the corps is currently constructed it can't get much worse.