Confirmed Signing with Link: [BUF] G Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen re-signs with the Sabres (5 years, $4.75M AAV)

[Panthaz89]

Wasn't Sabers GM Kevin Adams the Assistant GM for the Pens when Jarry got that 5 year deal? Jarry contract was a mistake and so is this one. For people saying this contract can be traded a couple years down the road if it doesn't work out, the answer to that is no! UPL looks like he's an up and coming goalie, but to give him a 5 year contract to be the #1 goalie based off of 1 good season is just dumb. Levi is the Sabers long term #1 goalie plan and UPL shouldn't have received no more than a 3 year deal.


Definite over payment and 2 years too long on the contract.

People really forget how UPL was as a prospect and saying he's basically done at his age is completely silly.

 

[CanadienShark]

Seems like a big deal for him. If he has another good year or two, it could be looked at as a great deal for Buffalo. Some risk on both sides, but I think UPL is the "winner" today.

 

[Fist of Fury]

Everyone now but your babies in goal and start shooting pucks at them.

 

[Zbynek]

I know he was great last year, but giving him a 5 year, ~$5 million AAV deal based on one year seems bananas to me.

Still nowhere near as insane as the Tristan Jarry contract

 

[D1az]

Maybe a year less for that amount would have been good in case he regresses.
Seems like a bit of a risk if he just had a spectacular year.

 

[MOGlLNY]

Yah the Sabres should definitely be praised for signing a goalie that has played 100 games for them in 4 seasons to a 5 year 4.75 million per year deal.
It's still a mystery why the Sabres have missed the playoffs 13 straight seasons when they make all the right moves.


A bad deal

I didn’t say praised but it’s a fine deal that locks him up if he’s good and easily tradable if he’s just fine.

 

[Diaspora]

Not saying this as a criticism toward any GM. I can understand why it happens. But it’s amazing how in the goaltending world, you can go from worth very little to worth multiple millions over multiple years with just a short stretch of solid NHL play.

He's had stretches of solid play over the last three seasons while the stretches of weaker play have been getting shorter and farther apart. If he remains as he is, he's at least a solid 1A and worth the contract.

 

[Djp]

I know he was great last year, but giving him a 5 year, ~$5 million AAV deal based on one year seems bananas to me.

He won WJC U20 for Finland in 2019.
He needed to get hip surgery done a few years ago. Itd takes a couple years to fully recover.

He had 2 more yrs of team control before being a UFA

inb4 Levi traded for a top6 winger

No...

UPL contract
Yr 1 Levi on ELC in rochester playing regularly with an occasional call up for 3 in 4 or 4 in 6 game or a B2B against two good teams.
Yr 2-3 on bridge and a BG playing 30'35 games
Yr 4-5 they decide on signing Levi to a long term contract or trade one of them
By YR 4 or 5 one of their prosprct g could be ready for back up.

 

[Djp]

What happens to Levi ? Wasn’t he the future as recently as the beginning of last year ?

Levi is still on an ELC

Drafted in 2020 Levi is 22 to start 24/25 season.
Thid season hr mainly plays Rochrster
Next 2 yrs after hes on sabres as a back up unless he takes over.
Then in 27/28 ( Levi is 25) when bridge ends and UPL has 2 yrs left is when they decide. Likely one becomes a trade chip
.at that time theymight have a prospect goalie to be ready to be back up.

 

[Djp]

The takes that this is too much are hilarious - how much did the leafs just pay Woll who is older and proven less with significant injury issues - they paid him 3.67 - no way UPL was getting that for the folks claiming upl is paid a mil too much

Many were saying it would be in the 4s. I expected 5 yrs and about 4.5. This is eating UFA yrs

 

[biturbo19]

I know he was great last year, but giving him a 5 year, ~$5 million AAV deal based on one year seems bananas to me.

It's definitely a major gambler deal.

If he sustains what he was doing later last year, it can turn into one of those great deals where you've just got your goaltending squared away for a very reasonable price for half a decade.

But it is still just a small sample. Trending in the right direction, but would hardly be the first "small sample" goaltending deal to go belly up when their play implodes. And we've seen plenty of evidence that these sort of ~$5M goaltender deals with that kind of term are next to impossible to move or get out of if they go sour.

Goaltender is just not a position where you can afford to have a "cap albatross" contract. The nature of the position, you've only got two of 'em so the guy is going to have to play. And there's no such thing as "burying a goaltender on the 3rd/4th line" like you can do with a lot of ooopsies deals, and still at least get something out of them. If they stink...a goaltender is right up there, front and center doing it, any time they start. Or any time they sit on the bench doing nothing.

So when you roll the dice on a deal like this...the payoff is nice if it works. But the stakes are really darn high if you get it wrong. It'll wreck your cap structure completely for years.

 

[Torontonian]

Could be good
Could be bad

such is goaltending

Which is probably why spending around 5.5m~ for both goaltenders is the ideal way of going about your business, unless your in the A+ tier of goaltending like Vasy,Price,Shen etc.

 

[MOGlLNY]

It's definitely a major gambler deal.

If he sustains what he was doing later last year, it can turn into one of those great deals where you've just got your goaltending squared away for a very reasonable price for half a decade.

But it is still just a small sample. Trending in the right direction, but would hardly be the first "small sample" goaltending deal to go belly up when their play implodes. And we've seen plenty of evidence that these sort of ~$5M goaltender deals with that kind of term are next to impossible to move or get out of if they go sour.

Goaltender is just not a position where you can afford to have a "cap albatross" contract. The nature of the position, you've only got two of 'em so the guy is going to have to play. And there's no such thing as "burying a goaltender on the 3rd/4th line" like you can do with a lot of ooopsies deals, and still at least get something out of them. If they stink...a goaltender is right up there, front and center doing it, any time they start. Or any time they sit on the bench doing nothing.

So when you roll the dice on a deal like this...the payoff is nice if it works. But the stakes are really darn high if you get it wrong. It'll wreck your cap structure completely for years.

Korpisalo just got moved. Teams will always be willing to take on goaltending projects because teams are always looking for goalies. If UPL is just “fine” for this deal he is easily moveable. 4.75% of the cap in 2-3 years? Hardly an issue

 

[Jacob582]

UPL contract
Yr 1 Levi on ELC in rochester playing regularly with an occasional call up for 3 in 4 or 4 in 6 game or a B2B against two good teams.
Yr 2-3 on bridge and a BG playing 30'35 games
Yr 4-5 they decide on signing Levi to a long term contract or trade one of them
By YR 4 or 5 one of their prosprct g could be ready for back up.

You forgot to account for the expansion draft.

 

[Bouboumaster]

Explain why signing a 25yo goalie to a 5yr deal is a bad length. They bought 3 UFA years which should be in his prime

Well because goalies are unpredictables (only a few of them are) and if for some reasons Luukkonen start to shit the bed, Buffalo are stuck with him for 5 years

What, are you new to the sport?
Isn't Jack Campbell a cautionary tale?

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

Wasn't Sabers GM Kevin Adams the Assistant GM for the Pens when Jarry got that 5 year deal? Jarry contract was a mistake and so is this one. For people saying this contract can be traded a couple years down the road if it doesn't work out, the answer to that is no! UPL looks like he's an up and coming goalie, but to give him a 5 year contract to be the #1 goalie based off of 1 good season is just dumb. Levi is the Sabers long term #1 goalie plan and UPL shouldn't have received no more than a 3 year deal.


Definite over payment and 2 years too long on the contract.

I believe Kevyn Adams owned the team when he was with Pittsburgh.

 

[KeyserSoze81]

Not saying this as a criticism toward any GM. I can understand why it happens. But it’s amazing how in the goaltending world, you can go from worth very little to worth multiple millions over multiple years with just a short stretch of solid NHL play.

Ehh, I would argue for his pedigree too. He was long hyped as a prospect, and then missed some time with the surgery, and then finally came into his own once healthy. Tough to fault the player for that, and also easy as an organization to balance his contract/performance with Devon Levi knocking on the door.

 

[SEALBound]

Explain why signing a 25yo goalie to a 5yr deal is a bad length. They bought 3 UFA years which should be in his prime

I don't think it's bad per say, but rather "risky". Goaltending is so volatile anymore that we frequently see teams hamstringing themselves with bad goalie contracts. If they are short-term deals, they are much more workable if something goes wrong. When you are talking 4-5 years, you're stuck.

 

[ijuka]

This sounds like a lot of money for Luukkonen.

 

[Satanphonehome]

One thing about the "gamble" of this contract is that the Sabres still have Levi on his ELC in the hole.

If UPL falters, they don't have to go out and overspend on another risky contract like a Campbell, or Husso, or Korpisalo. An inexpensive Plan B is right there.

Worst case scenario is they both fail and you have go hunting for a 3rd guy, but they've only got $6M invested in the crease right now, and Levi is only getting a big raise next year if he hits.

Best case scenario is an Ullmark/Swayman situation for the next 3 or 4 years.

 

[Chainshot]

Everyone now but your babies in goal and start shooting pucks at them.

I’m not drunk enough to understand this. Could you please elaborate?

 

[dire wolf]

I'm a fan

 

[Dirty Dog]

I’m not drunk enough to understand this. Could you please elaborate?

I think it’s meant to say put instead of but. As in, put your children in goal so they can get paid one day!

 

[yzerman]

Very Good goalie on a medium good team and this contract going to look like a steal when the team is going to be better.

 

[Buresflyingelbow]

I know he was great last year, but giving him a 5 year, ~$5 million AAV deal based on one year seems bananas to me.

This is what Vancouver did with Thather Demko. Could turn out great.