Value of: Bryan Rust

[Wattsburgh]

I don’t want to trade him at all as I want him to retire a Penguin (one of my favorite players) But just wanting to see what y’all over here think of his value. TIA.

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[Puckstuff]

I don’t want to trade him at all as I want him to retire a Penguin (one of my favorite players) But just wanting to see what y’all over here think of his value. TIA.

Not much… he’s a decent 2nd liner but already 32 and on a longer term deal at 5 + m. The contract makes him less valuable. Maybe you get a 3rd and a B prospect.

 

[Wattsburgh]

Not much… he’s a decent 2nd liner but already 32 and on a longer term deal at 5 + m. The contract makes him less valuable. Maybe you get a 3rd and a B prospect.

Thanks Puckstuff.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

Not much value, if any, without retaining. He's getting old and acts like he's a superstar now, just floating around unwilling to muck it up and do what made him successful in the first place. Would love to see him gone.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Not much… he’s a decent 2nd liner but already 32 and on a longer term deal at 5 + m. The contract makes him less valuable. Maybe you get a 3rd and a B prospect.

You say this but then 5 teams will give out the same exact kind of contract to the same caliber of player every year in free agency.

I don't necessarily disagree, I think the Penguins would have to take a decently sized deal back, but I'm not sure why this gets said so often on here when these guys constantly get these big deals every off-season in free agency. Marchessault is better, but he's a year older than Rust and signed a 5x5.5 deal last off-season. Toffoli is about the same age and ability as Rust and he got a 4x6 deal last off-season.

 

[qc14]

You say this but then 5 teams will give out the same exact kind of contract to the same caliber of player every year in free agency.

That's the point of free agency though -- you overspend on the contract because there's no other acquisition cost.

 

[Empoleon8771]

That's the point of free agency though -- you overspend on the contract because there's no other acquisition cost.

But once teams miss out on those players in free agency, they'll have to go the trade avenue. Or if they're in season, they won't have the option to sign free agents.

I just don't think Rust's contract is as big of an impedance as others would argue, because it's probably smaller than what he'd be getting in free agency anyway.

 

[HockeyVirus]

But once teams miss out on those players in free agency, they'll have to go the trade avenue. Or if they're in season, they won't have the option to sign free agents.

I just don't think Rust's contract is as big of an impedance as others would argue, because it's probably smaller than what he'd be getting in free agency anyway.

I hate this argument. "Yeah you could get better players in free agency but they would cost more, so come take our trash".

Unless Crosby is coming with him, I don't see much interest.

 

[banks]

I hate this argument. "Yeah you could get better players in free agency but they would cost more, so come take our trash".

Unless Crosby is coming with him, I don't see much interest.

I don't think saying "Rust's contract is what he'd get as a UFA (with comparables)" is the same as "come take our trash".

His deal isn't a bargain, but it's market value. So he's not a cap dump.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I hate this argument. "Yeah you could get better players in free agency but they would cost more, so come take our trash".

Unless Crosby is coming with him, I don't see much interest.

How is Rust "trash" all of a sudden?

Not only that, that wasn't my argument in the first place. My argument was that Rust's deal isn't really an issue because any Rust caliber player is going to cost his deal or more in free agency. Him having 3 years at $5 million left is less than what he'd be getting in UFA this off-season, so I don't see how it makes sense any sense to knock him for his contract.

 

[BleedBlue14]

But once teams miss out on those players in free agency, they'll have to go the trade avenue. Or if they're in season, they won't have the option to sign free agents.

I just don't think Rust's contract is as big of an impedance as others would argue, because it's probably smaller than what he'd be getting in free agency anyway.

The issue is timing. Most teams that would be interested in adding Rust can’t afford to do so in season. He’s more likely an offseason type of trade candidate. But, that generally doesn’t happen until later in the offseason.

This same conversation has been going on for many teams that have solid players, but they’ve already signed their contracts and other teams don’t have a lot of wiggle room. The market just isn’t always there, and the return isn’t near as good as you’d imagine it should be.

Termed contracts are just hard to move right now, especially for non core players that are aging.

 

[DesertPenguin]

He's good for 60ish points a season without relying on PP time. Lately that's been ppg production, with 20 games missed due to injury. Some good some bad. I think a team would look at him as a player to put a young team over the top with steady 5v5 play and veteran leadership in a top line role. Think 2009 Bill Guerin. That's probably worth a 2nd to the right team. I'm thinking a team like Utah that's making a push but needs guys that have been there before.

 

[SEALBound]

The issue is timing. Most teams that would be interested in adding Rust can’t afford to do so in season. He’s more likely an offseason type of trade candidate. But, that generally doesn’t happen until later in the offseason.

This same conversation has been going on for many teams that have solid players, but they’ve already signed their contracts and other teams don’t have a lot of wiggle room. The market just isn’t always there, and the return isn’t near as good as you’d imagine it should be.

Termed contracts are just hard to move right now, especially for non core players that are aging.

Depends on the structure of your team. If you have a gap at 1 or 2RW and the cap space, adding Rust to the roster isn't that difficult in the off-season. The option is trading for Rust of overpaying for a similar RW - either in money, term, or both.

If a team has say $8mil in space and need a wing, trading for Rust at 5.125mil for 3 years is as tolerable as any guy you'll get in FA. As pointed out, Toffoli got a $6mil x 4yr deal and is a comparable player.

I would imagine Rust will cost a 2nd and a prospect. Willing for it to be a B level prospect if there's no cap coming back. Higher if there is and potentially a 1st if it's a cap dump type move. I think the value would be pretty standard.

 

[BleedBlue14]

Depends on the structure of your team. If you have a gap at 1 or 2RW and the cap space, adding Rust to the roster isn't that difficult in the off-season. The option is trading for Rust of overpaying for a similar RW - either in money, term, or both.

If a team has say $8mil in space and need a wing, trading for Rust at 5.125mil for 3 years is as tolerable as any guy you'll get in FA. As pointed out, Toffoli got a $6mil x 4yr deal and is a comparable player.

I would imagine Rust will cost a 2nd and a prospect. Willing for it to be a B level prospect if there's no cap coming back. Higher if there is and potentially a 1st if it's a cap dump type move. I think the value would be pretty standard.

Just out of curiousity, can you remember any 30+ year olds who are signed for more than 2 years to a fairly decent contract AAV traded in the past 3 years?

I understand where you’re coming from, and I don’t disagree fundamentally. But if recent memory shares anything it’s that these guys aren’t really being traded for anymore. The Blues have been going through it for the past 2 years.

 

[57special]

You can't assume that a 32 yo player is going to maintain the production that he had when he was in his prime. Chances are that he will decline, making his contract unappealing.

That Crosby fella is the one who will draw some interest on the trade market.

 

[amikaro]

Palat and a 3rd

 

[VeteranPresence]

I've always thought he would make a good Oiler, and having him on Draisaitl's wing could be a nice fit for the both of them as Rust plays the kind of detailed, two way hockey Leon needs in a linemate. That he can both score and make plays is a bonus.

However the cap just doesn't work unless Dubas sees value in Evander Kane for some reason.

 

[Empoleon8771]

You can't assume that a 32 yo player is going to maintain the production that he had when he was in his prime. Chances are that he will decline, making his contract unappealing.

That Crosby fella is the one who will draw some interest on the trade market.

And again, teams keep signing 32 year old players to long term deals. Look at Toffoli and Marchessault last off-season.

This whole "his contract is unappealing" fundamentally does not align with what NHL teams actually do. If Rust hit UFA this off-season, a team would almost assuredly give him a bigger deal than what he has left on his contract.

 

[SEALBound]

Just out of curiousity, can you remember any 30+ year olds who are signed for more than 2 years to a fairly decent contract AAV traded in the past 3 years?

I understand where you’re coming from, and I don’t disagree fundamentally. But if recent memory shares anything it’s that these guys aren’t really being traded for anymore. The Blues have been going through it for the past 2 years.

Off the top of my head, not many ring a bell but at the same time, how often does one come available? If they are performing well and have a reasonable contract, typically teams hold on to them. So the absence of such trades is not proof that they can't happen.

 

[BleedBlue14]

Off the top of my head, not many ring a bell but at the same time, how often does one come available? If they are performing well and have a reasonable contract, typically teams hold on to them. So the absence of such trades is not proof that they can't happen.

The first grouping that teams go to when they want to make a change is those guys on their ending contracts that aren't core pieces but are good complimentary pieces.

Ultimately, it's really hard to tell who is and who isn't available. I did some digging afterwards and went back 2 years and Karlsson was the only one who fit the bill. Karlsson is in a completely different realm though given his pedigree and NHL career. He's brought in to be a core piece.

Point being if teams are taking on termed contracts it seems like they would heavily prefer them to be guys that are around the same age range of their core.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I just don't understand how people here can say "Rust's 3 years and $5 million left is unappealing" when GMs are handing out 7 year deals to guys who are 2 years younger like Stephenson. After this year, Rust has no trade protection and is owed less money than his AAV ($5.125 million AAV, $4.15 million average salary). His contract is almost assuredly better than what the equal UFA would be getting this year in free agency.

I'd bet Palmieri (closest comparable I can see to Rust in free agency next summer) gets something like 4 years at $6 million AAV with a restrictive NTC/NMC as a free agent this year.

 

[Khelandros]

He's good for 60ish points a season without relying on PP time. Lately that's been ppg production, with 20 games missed due to injury. Some good some bad. I think a team would look at him as a player to put a young team over the top with steady 5v5 play and veteran leadership in a top line role. Think 2009 Bill Guerin. That's probably worth a 2nd to the right team. I'm thinking a team like Utah that's making a push but needs guys that have been there before.

I have seen things that are untrue, but that...

 

[SEALBound]

I have seen things that are untrue, but that...

View attachment 944114

Not sure what you're getting at there. There are multiple 60+pt pace seasons there.

 

[Khelandros]

Not sure what you're getting at there. There are multiple 60+pt pace seasons there.

There are, in fact, exactly 0 60+ point seasons there.

 

[SEALBound]

There are, in fact, exactly 0 60+ point seasons there.

Look at the games played though. Look at 2022. 58pts in 60gp. It's incredibly reasonable to suggest he could have got 2 more points if he played 22 more games.