Bruins Related Misguided Myths (or Rhetoric) that has been proven wrong this year

[Dr Quincy]

But are those ES minutes or just TOI in general?

5-on-5 only

What's interesting is that Chara/McQuaid have been very good together 5-on-5 w/ shots for/against while Miller/Chara have been bad. Miller with Krug has been great in that stat.

 

[RedBruin]

Mcquaid's never had to play the minutes or competition that Miller has this year. That fact that the coach has chosen to promote Miller over Mcquaid should tell you something.

Can we put that myth to rest already ? Miller is getting 1-2 shifts more per game than last season. McQuaid had similar numbers last year.
It's simply factually wrong to claim that there's been some major shift in role and responsibility for either player.
Infact, McQ had the bigger jump in TOI from his first couple of years in the league to now than Miller if you want to be petty about it.

As for advanced stats, admittedly I'm not much of a geek (and fan for that matter), but the quality of competition stat shows a lower (marginally) value for Miller than McQuaid, and lower than Miller's own last season. Now that's probably not the be-all and end-all stat but considering the likes of Bergeron, Marchand, Eriksson or Chara are at the top (save for statistical outliers like Koko or Griffith) it does appear to be showing what the name suggests it's supposed to show. Actually, his value is lower than in his first season.
According to zone starts he's being more sheltered than McQuaid, heck, he's even behind Joe Morrow.

At least McQuaid's proneness to injury and much higher cap hit are legit arguments.

 

[Oates2Neely]

5-on-5 only

What's interesting is that Chara/McQuaid have been very good together 5-on-5 w/ shots for/against while Miller/Chara have been bad. Miller with Krug has been great in that stat.

So do Miller's P/60 include PP TOI? If so, what are the PP TOI numbers for Miller vs McQuaid?

Strange. Maybe just a comfort level with their respective partners?

 

[Ladyfan]

McQuaid's underratedly been one of our best defenseman all season long. He doesn't get the respect he deserves here. Love that he's a Bruin. He embodies what this franchise is all about.

Excellent Post !

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

I was referring to that particular goal, it was a lucky bounce.

True, but that's Miler's game (in a nut shell): Luck.

6th dman at best for some, not even NHL caliber player for others. Has been horrible. Yet, a +20 player his first season, a +20 last season (best on the team), currently +12, best for dmen.

I know, plus/minus is a bad stat (say some). But how can it be explained that this guy is consistently (over 3 seasons) on the ice for way more even strength goals than goals against? Can't play D and has no offensive (supposedly). The eye test is clear on that.

Conclusion: its Luck. That's his game. And Clode is a believer in it.

 

[GloveSave1]

Rinaldo is incapable of growing as a player. He will always be untrustworthy, running around dirtying opposing players, and being a general disgrace.

 

[jdz]

True, but that's Miler's game (in a nut shell): Luck.

6th dman at best for some, not even NHL caliber player for others. Has been horrible. Yet, a +20 player his first season, a +20 last season (best on the team), currently +12, best for dmen.

I know, plus/minus is a bad stat (say some). But how can it be explained that this guy is consistently (over 3 seasons) on the ice for way more even strength goals than goals against? Can't play D and has no offensive (supposedly). The eye test is clear on that.

Conclusion: its Luck. That's his game. And Clode is a believer in it.

Look, he's a very limited player and he just cant even skate in some situations.

He does get out there, go super hard on the sniffing salts, and go as hard as he can every game though. That I respect.

 

[Tampbear]

True, but that's Miler's game (in a nut shell): Luck.

6th dman at best for some, not even NHL caliber player for others. Has been horrible. Yet, a +20 player his first season, a +20 last season (best on the team), currently +12, best for dmen.

I know, plus/minus is a bad stat (say some). But how can it be explained that this guy is consistently (over 3 seasons) on the ice for way more even strength goals than goals against? Can't play D and has no offensive (supposedly). The eye test is clear on that.

Conclusion: its Luck. That's his game. And Clode is a believer in it.

Miller has to be doing something right, I'm not sure what it is but the stats don't work in your favor the way they do for Miller if you aren't doing something right. I think K Miller is actually a decent D for us after a rough start to the year. Seidenberg on the other hand is great in front of the net and about useless anywhere else, he is just too slow. The more I think about it the more I'm convinced that a partner for Chara is our biggest concern right now and we could Ice an alright D if we had one. In the meantime I'd like to see.

Chara-McQuaid
Krug-K. Miller
Morrow-Trotman

 

[BigBear83]

How about claude saying that he change his system,.. looked a little different to start the year but they fall right back into the same groove 15 games into the season.

 

[Eddie Munson]

How about claude saying that he change his system,.. looked a little different to start the year but they fall right back into the same groove 15 games into the season.

Isn't the text in bold a prime example of one of the "misguided myths" of the season?

Claude talked about certain things he was going to try and do with the transition game in particular the breakout of the forwards but no mention by him or Don was made about changing the overall system that I can remember. Don Sweeney said he wanted to put more anxiety on the other teams and be the aggressor in terms of getting on the board first and scoring more in the third period.

In terms of systems, Sweeney even went out of his way to praise Claude saying all 4 teams that made the conference finals last year were very good defensive teams that really suppressed value shots, sounds familiar to me.

On the future of Head Coach Claude Julien…
Don Sweeney: I’ve spoken with Claude [Julien]. I know it’s been reported that I had spoken to Claude as a prospective general manager candidate; that also is true. I spoke to Claude again this morning, and I spoke to him as a person now in a general manager’s seat. So I have some things that I want to sit down with Claude and go throw in a very orderly fashion as to where I think needs to change and what direction we need to change as a group. I also acknowledged to Claude during this whole process that I think tremendously of him as a coach and as a person, so I think it’s just about lining up philosophical approaches that I believe in, that he believes in, and that we can move the group forward. As I said, some of that will involve personnel decisions. Some of that will involve staff member decisions and or changes. That’s to be determined. He’s the coach of the Boston Bruins as of today; that’s for sure.

On the timeline for potentially making changes to the coaching staff…
Don Sweeney: I’m going to take the necessary time to evaluate. It will start with Claude [Julien], and we’ll dissect a little bit of the personnel pieces that he feels on teams that he’s had in the past that he’s had success with, and what we currently have, what we need to identify that could be missing — and we’ll go from there. From a staff standpoint, there’s a bit of a shift that needs to come — from our transition game, from our ability to create anxiety in other teams, because I think we, at times, had a retreat mentality. You can be the best defensive team in the National Hockey League, and all four teams playing — as I referenced earlier — are very good teams. They suppress what we call shot value and scoring opportunities very, very well. Their goaltenders are a big part of it. We have a very good goaltender. But if you don’t create anxiety in the other team and have the ability to score goals in a time fashion or generate quality chances, then you’re going to find yourself chasing the game. And this year, we chased the game too much. We were behind in third periods, we didn’t score enough third period goals as to what we normally have in the past, and there are reasons for that. So the staff, to answer your question — it takes some time to evaluate the pieces that we need to get in place that can take the group forward.

http://www.bostonsportsdesk.com/don-sweeney-press-conference-transcript/

While I'll admit the breakout has floundered, it's not as if the GM gave the coach many tools to use on the backend that would improve the teams transition. All and all the D is activating more often than I can remember in a long time, sometimes to the detriment of the team. The D has also been very aggressive about pinching down the walls in the offensive zone to try and extend zone time and lead to more of this anxiety Sweeney referenced. To add some statistical context, Julien has coached the 15-16 B's to be the 3rd highest scoring team in the league this year compared to the 22nd highest last year. They are 2nd in the league in goals scored (8th last year) in the first period and 4th in the 3rd (28th last year. 28th!). The Bruins have scored first in 35 games so far this season (roughly 60% of games) compared to the 43 times they scored first last year (52%).

I'll say while both eluded to the pace of the game, it's hard to push the pace when you don't have the pieces to do so. but I like many others never assumed this was a flip of the switch change and that it may take years to get the right pieces in place.

Still it appears Claude has delivered on exactly what Sweeney has asked for. A team that puts the anxiety on the other team by dictating play, scoring first and scoring in the 3rd period when the game matters.

Disclaimer: A really useful stat beyond the ones I listed would be "Goals Scored to Extend Lead." I can't seem to find it anywhere but it would certainly paint a better picture either for or against the case I just put up there. If someone could dig it up regardless of if it helps me of not it would certainly ad some levity to the debate.

 

[PB37]

That myth has been around since Julien started coaching the Bruins, and it's an odd one considering they've been in the top 5 in NHL scoring every year under him but one, IIRC.

It probably comes from Julien insisting on responsible three-zone play (though there isn't an NHL coach who doesn't) and that the Bruins have never had a Stamkos type of stud goal-scorer.

That's a myth that you created in your own head.

They were 22nd in scoring just last year. Including this year, they've been a top 5 scoring team 5 times in Julien's 9 years.

07-08: 24th
08-09: 2nd
09-10: Last
10-11: 5th
11-12: 2nd
12-13: 13th
13-14: 3rd
14-15: 22nd
15-16: 3rd ( currently )

 

[crimsonace]

That myth has been around since Julien started coaching the Bruins, and it's an odd one considering they've been in the top 5 in NHL scoring every year under him but one, IIRC.

It probably comes from Julien insisting on responsible three-zone play (though there isn't an NHL coach who doesn't) and that the Bruins have never had a Stamkos type of stud goal-scorer.

Well, they had a couple, but they traded one to Toronto, then traded the one they got in that trade to Dallas.

 

[wintersej]

I still would rather pay Kevan a third of the salary to be a number 6...but he McQuaid is the clear choice to be a #4.

 

[jgatie]

Well, they had a couple, but they traded one to Toronto, then traded the one they got in that trade to Dallas.

Did you just compare Phil Kessel's game to Steven Freaking Stamkos?

Stamkos? The 4 time 40 goal, two time 50 goal, and one time 60!!! goal scorer, compared to the "40 goal scorer" whose next 40 goal season will be his first (and he ain't hitting that any time soon)? Steven Stamkos, whose career average is about Phil Kessel's best season, even though he missed almost an entire year with a broken tibia? A broken tibia he got driving to the net, which Phil Kessel wouldn't do unless someone picked him up and threw him there? That Steven Stamkos?


Bad poster! Bad!

If I had a newspaper, I'd smack your nose.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Did you just compare Phil Kessel's game to Steven Freaking Stamkos?

Stamkos? The 4 time 40 goal, two time 50 goal, and one time 60!!! goal scorer, compared to the "40 goal scorer" whose next 40 goal season will be his first (and he ain't hitting that any time soon)? Steven Stamkos, whose career average is about Phil Kessel's best season, even though he missed almost an entire year with a broken femur? A broken femur he got driving to the net, which Phil Kessel wouldn't do unless someone picked him up and threw him there? That Steven Stamkos?


Bad poster! Bad!

If I had a newspaper, I'd smack your nose.

If I were Sweeney and Pens offered Kessel for a 7th round pick on the grounds that we couldn't trade him for 2 years, I'd turn it down.

 

[jgatie]

If I were Sweeney and Pens offered Kessel for a 7th round pick on the grounds that we couldn't trade him for 2 years, I'd turn it down.

I can't think of anything more mythological for this thread than the myth that the Bruins had two "Stamkos type of stud goal-scorers" and traded them away. Seguin I can sort of understand (maybe, sort of, not really), but Phil Kessel couldn't carry Stamkos' skates.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Myth: Bruin's defensemen are biggest weakness on current team.

Worst Plus/Minus players:

Talbot -10
Kemp -8
Hayes -8
Rinaldo -7
Ferraro -6
Spooner -6

No dmen, all players from bottom 2 lines.

Conclusion: Forward depth bigger problem than defensemen.

 

[crimsonace]

Did you just compare Phil Kessel's game to Steven Freaking Stamkos?

Stamkos? The 4 time 40 goal, two time 50 goal, and one time 60!!! goal scorer, compared to the "40 goal scorer" whose next 40 goal season will be his first (and he ain't hitting that any time soon)? Steven Stamkos, whose career average is about Phil Kessel's best season, even though he missed almost an entire year with a broken tibia? A broken tibia he got driving to the net, which Phil Kessel wouldn't do unless someone picked him up and threw him there? That Steven Stamkos?


Bad poster! Bad!

If I had a newspaper, I'd smack your nose.

Wasn't meant to be a true comparison, but to note that the B's had a couple of elite scorers, and let go of both of them. The Kessel deal was a great one as it netted Seguin & Hamilton (two guys they basically gave away for pennies on the dollar). The Seguin deal, not quite so much.

But Stamkos is better than both of them.

 

[PB37]

Myth: Bruin's defensemen are biggest weakness on current team.

Worst Plus/Minus players:

Talbot -10
Kemp -8
Hayes -8
Rinaldo -7
Ferraro -6
Spooner -6

No dmen, all players from bottom 2 lines.

Conclusion: Forward depth bigger problem than defensemen.

I think it's not as clear as this. The depth forwards you listed have struggled to score goals 5 v 5 while our blueline commits defensive mistakes resulting in goals allowed. The D that committed those errors will have their plus/minus evened out because they have a chance to play with the top two scoring lines. This is one reason why +/- is not an accurate stat when judging on ice efficiency.

 

[GloryDaze4877]

I think it's not as clear as this. The depth forwards you listed have struggled to score goals 5 v 5 while our blueline commits defensive mistakes resulting in goals allowed. The D that committed those errors will have their plus/minus evened out because they have a chance to play with the top two scoring lines. This is one reason why +/- is not an accurate stat when judging on ice efficiency.

I was trying to think of a way to put this, but you explained it better than I could have.

Nice post.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

I think it's not as clear as this. The depth forwards you listed have struggled to score goals 5 v 5 while our blueline commits defensive mistakes resulting in goals allowed. The D that committed those errors will have their plus/minus evened out because they have a chance to play with the top two scoring lines. This is one reason why +/- is not an accurate stat when judging on ice efficiency.

So the top two lines are getting big +/- numbers no matter who's on defense, and the bottom lines are getting big minuses playing with the same D group? How does that not make my point?

 

[Dr Quincy]

That's a myth that you created in your own head.

They were 22nd in scoring just last year. Including this year, they've been a top 5 scoring team 5 times in Julien's 9 years.

07-08: 24th
08-09: 2nd
09-10: Last
10-11: 5th
11-12: 2nd
12-13: 13th
13-14: 3rd
14-15: 22nd
15-16: 3rd ( currently )

Touche. Well played.

 

[Dr Quincy]

So do Miller's P/60 include PP TOI? If so, what are the PP TOI numbers for Miller vs McQuaid?

Strange. Maybe just a comfort level with their respective partners?

5-on-5 without pp numbers, Miller has 1.15 pts per 60 minutes, McQuaid .54.

If you look into pp #s, McQuaid has no pts on the pp but has played 1 pp minute all year. Miller has played 3 pp minutes all year and has 1 assist. So really with such tiny sample sizes, it makes no sense to compare their pp #s.

 

[DitClapper]

Rinaldo is incapable of growing as a player. He will always be untrustworthy, running around dirtying opposing players, and being a general disgrace.

I like Rinaldo a lot. But I wish he'd play a little over that line. He's only touched it a few times this year. Clode really watered him down, which sucks.

 

[PB37]

Touche. Well played.

It's a rather strange trend. If it continues to follow the same cycle it has for the past 9 seasons, it means this team will see a rather sharp drop in offense next year.