Prospect Info: Bruins Prospects XXV

[ODAAT]

Locmelis is a beauty.

seems to be more of a puck distributor which is something this team needs, hell, this team needs everything

 

[Jim]

I have no issue with a 4th round pick turning out to be a 3rd line contributor. Outstanding value if that’s how it materializes.

I have far more issue with drafting a guy in the 1st round to be a 3rd/4th liner on purpose.

 

[HustleB]

I have no issue with a 4th round pick turning out to be a 3rd line contributor. Outstanding value if that’s how it materializes.

I have far more issue with drafting a guy in the 1st round to be a 3rd/4th liner on purpose.

I would agree. I know the way I posed it earlier, made it sound like a disappointment. But prior to this year, I really did think his offense had another level to it. I will still love him in the bottom 6 if he makes it, but I was hoping for a little more offense at the NCAA level if I'm being honest with myself.

If he is in the Boston Bruins bottom 6 it is an undeniable success.

 

[McBrom7]

For such a big kid, I hope he learns to drive to the net with the puck instead of an outside Hail Mary shot like this. Good speed though.

 

[Over the volcano]

For such a big kid, I hope he learns to drive to the net with the puck instead of an outside Hail Mary shot like this. Good speed though.

Looks like if Lorhei was still playing as a forward

 

[Bruin4]

Looks like if Lorhei was still playing as a forward

Lohrei much more elusive at this point anyways.

 

[Kegs]

For such a big kid, I hope he learns to drive to the net with the puck instead of an outside Hail Mary shot like this. Good speed though.

Looks really big and fast. This kids got some potential as far as I can tell.

 

[McBrom7]

Looks really big and fast. This kids got some potential as far as I can tell.

Didn't get a whole lot of looks outside the first period, but from what I could tell he's huge and only plays like it behind the opposing net. Good down low, but for such a size mismatch he has on every shift he could use that advantage way more than he does IMO.

Hopefully BC can coach him up. Seems multiple years out if that.

 

[Kegs]

Didn't get a whole lot of looks outside the first period, but from what I could tell he's huge and only plays like it behind the opposing net. Good down low, but for such a size mismatch he has on every shift he could use that advantage way more than he does IMO.

Hopefully BC can coach him up. Seems multiple years out if that.

I think he is too weak to play a man’s game currently. If he works hard it will come.

 

[Saxon Eric]

Friday night wrap

Johansson and Moncton survive in OT 4-3
1 assist +2, game 2 is tonight

Zellers plays against Spicer,Kostadinski and Morello tonight

BC finally broke through late vs a very game Bentley
Jellvik DNP
Gasseau 3 shots +1 10 for 13 18:51
Letourneau 1 shot 3 for 5 8:02
They play Denver Sunday night

Speaking of Denver,they dismantle PC 5-1
Terrible goal gifted by Svedebäck to get the ball rolling
15 saves total, not so sure about this guy anymore
However watching Zeev made up for it

Season ends for Quinnipiac 4-1
Pelosi 1 shot -2 5 for 12 15:13
Groenewold -2 17:32
Disappointing finish but solid Freshman season for both

 

[SanDogBrewin]

Big Loke!

 

[Hookslide]

I think he is too weak to play a man’s game currently. If he works hard it will come.

Coaching, hard work, and time is a must. I might add hope the kid as the right attitude, to embrace all that.

 

[Saxon Eric]

 

[DominicT]

 

[McBrom7]

View attachment 1001794

Interesting numbers.

How does the model work? Are the projected numbers based off what good production would be in a ‘good’ season or are there a number of variables it takes in like linemates, trend of the prospect, etc.?

 

[DominicT]

Interesting numbers.

How does the model work? Are the projected numbers based off what good production would be in a ‘good’ season or are there a number of variables it takes in like linemates, trend of the prospect, etc.?

It's a very complicated formula I created about 6 years ago (and took a few years to perfect) which includes previous production, adjusts for a jump in leagues, projected line mates, pwerplay time and a lot of other things. It's been pretty accurate over the years and in fact, one NHL team liked it so much, they use it.

I admit, I had a hard time projecting Dean Letourneau because I never had a player go from Canadian high school right to the NCAA.

I use it to determine if a player has met my expectations or not. It's not perfect. For example, I didn't have Beckett Hendrickson playing the fourth line all year so his numbers were inflated. That said, I know he produced when playing higher in the lineup.

Context is everything with things like this. But I will do a total breakdown once the season is over.

 

[McBrom7]

It's a very complicated formula I created about 6 years ago (and took a few years to perfect) which includes previous production, adjusts for a jump in leagues, projected line mates, pwerplay time and a lot of other things. It's been pretty accurate over the years and in fact, one NHL team liked it so much, they use it.

I admit, I had a hard time projecting Dean Letourneau because I never had a player go from Canadian high school right to the NCAA.

I use it to determine if a player has met my expectations or not. It's not perfect. For example, I didn't have Beckett Hendrickson playing the fourth line all year so his numbers were inflated. That said, I know he produced when playing higher in the lineup.

Context is everything with things like this. But I will do a total breakdown once the season is over.

Yeah exactly. Numbers are nice, but when I don’t know what’s behind them it’s hard to know what I’m looking at.

Cool model! I’ve thought about trying to concoct something myself but I’m sure it’s way over my head haha. And like you said everything gets screwed up if someone gets dog housed or something. I guess that just means they didn’t meet expectations.

Thanks for sharing when you really didn’t have too.

 

[DominicT]

Yeah exactly. Numbers are nice, but when I don’t know what’s behind them it’s hard to know what I’m looking at.

Cool model! I’ve thought about trying to concoct something myself but I’m sure it’s way over my head haha. And like you said everything gets screwed up if someone gets dog housed or something. I guess that just means they didn’t meet expectations.

Thanks for sharing when you really didn’t have too.

Even i am confused by how it works sometimes lol.

Take Ty Gallagher for example. After putting up just 5 points with BU last season, I input the numbers and that's what came up. I can assure you I questioned it and input the numbers a second and third time and came up with the same results.

So the question became: did he exceed expectations or did he revert back to the player he was before he got reduced to single digit TOI with BU last season? To me, it just proved that last season was just an anomaly- in a bad way.

 

[JayMark]

Looks really big and fast. This kids got some potential as far as I can tell.

Just what the Bruins need. More players that can hit the post. For me he's a major disappointment. Zero goals and 3 assists. And don't give me the " he's only a freshman" crap. So is James Hagens.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

Just what the Bruins need. More players that can hit the post. For me he's a major disappointment. Zero goals and 3 assists. And don't give me the " he's only a freshman" crap. So is James Hagens.

lol ok. James Hagens is going top 5 in the draft maybe top 3, with a USNTDP pedigree. He didn’t play Canadian high school last year. There’s literally no comparison to be made whatsoever.

 

[Dr Hook]

It's one thing to doubt a prospect or question a draft choice, and another to ignore the context around said pick. Letourneau was slated to play in the USHL this season. One never knows, but it is probably fair to say that he would have put up solid numbers there and been a bit more prepared to step into a role at BC. An unexpected roster spot happened and BC asked Letourneau to come a year ahead of schedule. He did and it is what it is- a year of adjustment. If he was a pure talent like Hagens, he would never have been available when the Bruins picked him.

 

[Dr Quincy]

lol ok. James Hagens is going top 5 in the draft maybe top 3, with a USNTDP pedigree. He didn’t play Canadian high school last year. There’s literally no comparison to be made whatsoever.

How about Teddy Stiga who went about 30 picks later?

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

How about Teddy Stiga who went about 30 picks later?

 

[Dr Quincy]

View attachment 1001838

Yes, he was tabbed early on as a better prospect and thus played at a higher level, at a younger age, than Letourneau.

I'm not sure that's the defense you think it is.

The only argument one can make in Letourneau's defense is that 4 years from now he'll be better. But that's a Dusty Springfield Wishin' and Hopin'.

It could happen for sure. But other than the B's picking him and his height, there's no reason to say it's likely to happen. Most models would have had Stiga having the better chance to be an NHL player 1 year ago, and those models would be stronger in his favor now. Not definitive, things can change, but I don't think you can point out 1 solid reason why you think Letoureau will pass him.

Also, you didn't like the Hagens/Letourneau comp because Hagens has the unfair advantage of being tabbed to go 20picks higher than Dean did. Yet somehow being drafted 30 picks ahead of Stiga isn't an unfair advantage when it comes to produciton.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

Yes, he was tabbed early on as a better prospect and thus played at a higher level, at a younger age, than Letourneau.

I'm not sure that's the defense you think it is.

The only argument one can make in Letourneau's defense is that 4 years from now he'll be better. But that's a Dusty Springfield Wishin' and Hopin'.

It could happen for sure. But other than the B's picking him and his height, there's no reason to say it's likely to happen. Most models would have had Stiga having the better chance to be an NHL player 1 year ago, and those models would be stronger in his favor now. Not definitive, things can change, but I don't think you can point out 1 solid reason why you think Letoureau will pass him.

Also, you didn't like the Hagens/Letourneau comp because Hagens has the unfair advantage of being tabbed to go 20picks higher than Dean did. Yet somehow being drafted 30 picks ahead of Stiga isn't an unfair advantage when it comes to produciton.

I don’t get this. You say “most models would have had Stiga having the better chance to be an NHL player 1 year ago”, yet he goes 55, and no draft projection had Stiga ranked above Letourneau. So why would he go so late?

Looking at one year for a draft pick who is a long term project is where the issue is. Hagens has been elite since he was 7 years old. Letourneau is a huge center who can skate and has hands. Everyone knows it’s going to take several years with him. If he scored another 4 goals and 8 assists this year it wouldn’t change the trajectory.