Player Discussion Brock Boeser - Brock Around the Clock

[sting101]

56th in goals the last 3 yrs with a year where his dad was dying and another with a concussion and his C sitting out then getting traded. Obviously we don't want to give him the legacy years but that's what happens for 27-31 yr old UFAs.

You can do it for other teams "lets move on guys" or our own who might give you some concessions and is a pillar in the Core and Community.

Price of doing business.

You worry less about the 5 guys you throw over the boards when you need a GWG than you do for players further down the lineup.

I dont think a team that walked from Miller Lindholm Zadorov and was fine paying Heinen Desharnais O'Connor Lankinen Joshua and Hoglander the contracts they did should be nit picking the situation unless they want to retool

The only way i see this not ending with more egg on managements faces is if Marner were to somehow circle Vancouver on his desired destinations and that's about as good a odds as Loyd Christmas getting with Mary Swanson

 

[sandwichbird2023]

Again, all I'm saying is that if the Canucks really wanted to re-sign Boeser, there should be a 7 year deal on the table. Like get it done at 7x$7.5M or something.

I don't think management really want to re-sign Boeser to be honest. They threw him a courtesy offer because of his standing with his teammates and he is the longest serving Canuck.

I think the 8m x 5 was the absolute max they were ever willing to offer and I speculate that they were secretly happy it was rejected. At least this way Allvin can say to Hughes and the fans that "hey we tried, we made offered 40m but it wasnt good enough so we are moving on."

They may change their minds in the summer if things in UFA doesn't work out and Brock is still available, but he is definitely not a priority nor somebody the team is willing to overpay* for.

*Overpay as in their internal value of him, not necessarily the market value.

 

[Hodgy]

I think management's comments about chasing a higher end centre make it even less likely that Boeser will be back next year. There just isn't the cap space to do both, and I think they rather spend 7-10 million, or whatever, on another centre with the balance (if possible) of their cap space going to Suter.

 

[Regal]

I think management's comments about chasing a higher end centre make it even less likely that Boeser will be back next year. There just isn't the cap space to do both, and I think they rather spend 7-10 million, or whatever, on another centre with the balance (if possible) of their cap space going to Suter.

They could move some others players as well to make it happen, especially if they want to give ice time to Raty, Lekkerimaki and Karlsson.

The problem is other teams won’t exactly be knocking the door down for guys like Hoglander, Joshua or Chytil so they can clear 3+ million.

 

[F A N]

I think management's comments about chasing a higher end centre make it even less likely that Boeser will be back next year. There just isn't the cap space to do both, and I think they rather spend 7-10 million, or whatever, on another centre with the balance (if possible) of their cap space going to Suter.

That makes sense but what if Boeser takes the offer? Then there’s no cap space to pursue a higher end C.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

I think management's comments about chasing a higher end centre make it even less likely that Boeser will be back next year. There just isn't the cap space to do both, and I think they rather spend 7-10 million, or whatever, on another centre with the balance (if possible) of their cap space going to Suter.

Wish they moved him at the TDL for assets that could now be used in a package to trade for that elusive top6 C.

 

[racerjoe]

I still think we should sign him... Even in this down year, with a concussion he hit 25 and 25, we saw more of his clutch goal scoring.

On top of that I don't worry about 6 years from now, with the cap skyrocketing. I am just not worried for those down years. We need top six forwards and he is one.

We can move other guys for Cap space.

 

[ManVanFan]

I still think we should sign him... Even in this down year, with a concussion he hit 25 and 25, we saw more of his clutch goal scoring.

On top of that I don't worry about 6 years from now, with the cap skyrocketing. I am just not worried for those down years. We need top six forwards and he is one.

We can move other guys for Cap space.

82 game career average 65 point player that wants 8M a year on a long term deal. Not worth it. I'd go 6.5 for 6 years.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

82 game career average 65 point player that wants 8M a year on a long term deal. Not worth it. I'd go 6.5 for 6 years.

And those are his peak/prime seasons playing with some very good centers. His next deal will see him exiting his prime, and projected to be playing with weaker centers. 8m is definitely a bad deal unless you have an elite center to pair him up with.

Also its not just about his cap hit in a vacuum, its about cap allocation too. If you pay Brock 8m, or even 6.5m, how are you able to upgrade the center position with like 5m in cap space? Allvin will have to make further moves (ie: dump Hog or Garland or more) to create more cap space for that upgrade, but then you open up another hole elsewhere on the roster.

 

[ManVanFan]

And those are his peak/prime seasons playing with some very good centers. His next deal will see him exiting his prime, and projected to be playing with weaker centers. 8m is definitely a bad deal unless you have an elite center to pair him up with.

Also its not just about his cap hit in a vacuum, its about cap allocation too. If you pay Brock 8m, or even 6.5m, how are you able to upgrade the center position with like 5m in cap space? Allvin will have to make further moves (ie: dump Hog or Garland or more) to create more cap space for that upgrade, but then you open up another hole elsewhere on the roster.

Exactly, damned if you do, damned if you don't because they got so much else wrong as well. Starts with drafting and developing. Next year you will probably see how well they have done with the development side. Saw it at the tale end of this year but it has to be much better and they hopefully can start creating more assets.

 

[StreetHawk]

Exactly, damned if you do, damned if you don't because they got so much else wrong as well. Starts with drafting and developing. Next year you will probably see how well they have done with the development side. Saw it at the tale end of this year but it has to be much better and they hopefully can start creating more assets.

They have some guys who can be on the bottom half of the roster. But, what is hurting them is the top of the roster.

Podkozlin, Hoglander (consistency), Klimovich, Lekky. That's their forwards drafted in rounds 1 & 2 since 2019. Unless they can uncover a gem somewhere, they are going to be hard pressed to compete without more top of the roster talent up front.

Not much different than the Isles in that they dealt a bunch of draft picks to get Palmeria, Zajac, JGP, and dump Ladd, netting off what they got back for Toews. Plus had Wahlstrom bust on them. Move draft capital for Romanov/Horvat who can play. But, they are thin in the prospect pipeline.

 

[ManVanFan]

They have some guys who can be on the bottom half of the roster. But, what is hurting them is the top of the roster.

Podkozlin, Hoglander (consistency), Klimovich, Lekky. That's their forwards drafted in rounds 1 & 2 since 2019. Unless they can uncover a gem somewhere, they are going to be hard pressed to compete without more top of the roster talent up front.

Not much different than the Isles in that they dealt a bunch of draft picks to get Palmeria, Zajac, JGP, and dump Ladd, netting off what they got back for Toews. Plus had Wahlstrom bust on them. Move draft capital for Romanov/Horvat who can play. But, they are thin in the prospect pipeline.

They just keep adding defence. Lol.

 

[StreetHawk]

They just keep adding defence. Lol.

They needed D. But, when new regime is dealing out 2nds to dump Dickinson and Mik, plus send Fernstrom out as well to get M Pete, it eats into the draft capital.

Gardner has really no future in the NHL. Not producing in college. Most of the rest of the 3rd rounders and later project to be bottom 6 guys. Guys like Romani need to play higher up if at all in the pros.

 

[ManVanFan]

They needed D. But, when new regime is dealing out 2nds to dump Dickinson and Mik, plus send Fernstrom out as well to get M Pete, it eats into the draft capital.

Gardner has really no future in the NHL. Not producing in college. Most of the rest of the 3rd rounders and later project to be bottom 6 guys. Guys like Romani need to play higher up if at all in the pros.

They now need forwards. Much more than they ever needed D. Which will most likely end up like trading for Dickinson and giving Mikky money to forwards and will again be paying someone to take them off their hands. Rinse and repeat but at least they have D now.

 

[pitseleh]

Whether there’s a case to re-sign Boeser at $8 million/year boils down to how you weigh his 23/24 season. If you see it as the real Boeser returning after a couple down years dealing with a personal tragedy, and this season being a combo of a bad team environment / issues after his concussion, then there’s a good case for bringing him back.

But if you see it as an outlier then it’s hard to justify. I’m in that camp now. He’s not likely going to recreate his 19% SH% / 14% on-ice shooting percentage at even strength again. Regressing those numbers to the top end of his career range knocks 23/24 back to a ~ 33 goal / 62 point season.

Without that SH% bump he’s a ~ 27 goal / 58 point per 82 game player the last four years. To me that’s more of a $6 million player than an $8 million player if you’re giving him term too.

 

[sting101]

And those are his peak/prime seasons playing with some very good centers. His next deal will see him exiting his prime, and projected to be playing with weaker centers. 8m is definitely a bad deal unless you have an elite center to pair him up with.

Also its not just about his cap hit in a vacuum, its about cap allocation too. If you pay Brock 8m, or even 6.5m, how are you able to upgrade the center position with like 5m in cap space? Allvin will have to make further moves (ie: dump Hog or Garland or more) to create more cap space for that upgrade, but then you open up another hole elsewhere on the roster.

I agree with much of what your saying but also have to weigh the alternatives

Everyone in free agency will come with as much or more pain in terms of value years. As we've seen in the past chemistry is important and how a player fits in effects their overall value as well. Bringing in 28-32yr old UFAs from other organizations that were willing to let them walk in the first place always comes with potential for stink and is more onerous for a player that hasn't earned some slack and done nothing for the organization prior.

As far as the cap space you can look at any of Hoglander 3m Joshua 3.25m or O'Connor 2.5 and ask what they bring over and above Raty Sasson or Karlsson in relation to what they bring related to Boeser. And you have to account for the PP and situational usage. As we've seen 12-14minute players struggle at 17-20minutes. We're already in a roster compilation with players slotted above prior success and asking for more usually comes with pain

Any of those 3 mentioned can leave and we replace them from within or as per another Sherwood or Joshua signing and yet a top line W to replace in trade or free agency will cost assets (cap space or picks plus players)

So here in lies the conundrum. A good argument for both can be made for certain.

Re: Allocation we simply have to send out some money as part of a trade or even in free agency if you even brought back Miller @8m. I don't think it's a big deal

 

[sting101]

Whether there’s a case to re-sign Boeser at $8 million/year boils down to how you weigh his 23/24 season. If you see it as the real Boeser returning after a couple down years dealing with a personal tragedy, and this season being a combo of a bad team environment / issues after his concussion, then there’s a good case for bringing him back.

But if you see it as an outlier then it’s hard to justify. I’m in that camp now. He’s not likely going to recreate his 19% SH% / 14% on-ice shooting percentage at even strength again. Regressing those numbers to the top end of his career range knocks 23/24 back to a ~ 33 goal / 62 point season.

Without that SH% bump he’s a ~ 27 goal / 58 point per 82 game player the last four years. To me that’s more of a $6 million player than an $8 million player if you’re giving him term too.

Yes this is a good break down. 30-33 goals and 60-65 pts should be a healthy norm at this stage without set backs.

I look at it like what would Pavelski Toffoli or Oshie get as a 28yr old UFA. Toffoli got screwed because of Covid so you kinda have to throw that one out and even his pts/82 was skewed over being a KIng.
He did just get 6 million for 4yrs as a 5yrs older UFA winger so even at the end of what would be a 7yr Boeser contract he's worth that in an open market.

Pavelski got 5yrs 8.7% at 30 from SJ (30-35)
Oshie got 8yrs 7.6% at 30 from Wash (30-38)
Toffoli got 4yrs @ 6.82% at 32 (32-36)

Boeser is 28 at 95.5M CAP the range is 6.5m to 8.3 using these 3 examples and extending to 35/38yrs old

 

[Ernie]

Whether there’s a case to re-sign Boeser at $8 million/year boils down to how you weigh his 23/24 season. If you see it as the real Boeser returning after a couple down years dealing with a personal tragedy, and this season being a combo of a bad team environment / issues after his concussion, then there’s a good case for bringing him back.

But if you see it as an outlier then it’s hard to justify. I’m in that camp now. He’s not likely going to recreate his 19% SH% / 14% on-ice shooting percentage at even strength again. Regressing those numbers to the top end of his career range knocks 23/24 back to a ~ 33 goal / 62 point season.

Without that SH% bump he’s a ~ 27 goal / 58 point per 82 game player the last four years. To me that’s more of a $6 million player than an $8 million player if you’re giving him term too.

Amongst forwards, Boeser's 0.74 goals / 60 at EV is 172nd in the league over the past 4 seasons (minimum 2000 minutes). That's solidly into middle six territory and similar to Michael Bunting and Nick Paul.

But during the same period, his 2.56 goals / 60 on the PP is 24th (minimum 500 minutes). That's elite production, above notable players like Ovechkin, McDavid, and Rantanen.

This matches the eye test. He's deadly on the power play has majorly struggled to generate chances at EV. If there was one word to describe his 5v5 play this least few years it would be "invisible."

How much is a PP specialist worth? There's no doubt he's valuable there but DeBrusk has emerged as the primary sniper on the PP and the team has Lekkerimaki incoming. What they really need is a JT Miller replacement.

 

[pitseleh]

Amongst forwards, Boeser's 0.74 goals / 60 at EV is 172nd in the league over the past 4 seasons (minimum 2000 minutes). That's solidly into middle six territory and similar to Michael Bunting and Nick Paul.

But during the same period, his 2.56 goals / 60 on the PP is 24th (minimum 500 minutes). That's elite production, above notable players like Ovechkin, McDavid, and Rantanen.

This matches the eye test. He's deadly on the power play has majorly struggled to generate chances at EV. If there was one word to describe his 5v5 play this least few years it would be "invisible."

How much is a PP specialist worth? There's no doubt he's valuable there but DeBrusk has emerged as the primary sniper on the PP and the team has Lekkerimaki incoming. What they really need is a JT Miller replacement.

Agreed. And Miller is an elite playmaker on the PP, so I’d worry about Boeser’s ability to maintain that level of production without Miller. What would have been a bigger drop off in PP goals this year was masked a bit by a career high 23% PP SH%.

 

[sting101]

Amongst forwards, Boeser's 0.74 goals / 60 at EV is 172nd in the league over the past 4 seasons (minimum 2000 minutes). That's solidly into middle six territory and similar to Michael Bunting and Nick Paul.

But during the same period, his 2.56 goals / 60 on the PP is 24th (minimum 500 minutes). That's elite production, above notable players like Ovechkin, McDavid, and Rantanen.

This matches the eye test. He's deadly on the power play has majorly struggled to generate chances at EV. If there was one word to describe his 5v5 play this least few years it would be "invisible."

How much is a PP specialist worth? There's no doubt he's valuable there but DeBrusk has emerged as the primary sniper on the PP and the team has Lekkerimaki incoming. What they really need is a JT Miller replacement.

The problem with P/60 is how many in that 172 players above him could actually sustain or be able to replicate that at bigger minutes.

Garland was a perfect example this year. Ice time went up production stayed the same. His EV p/60 went from 2.6 - 1.9 - 2.4 to 1.7

 

[Ernie]

The problem with P/60 is how many in that 172 players above him could actually sustain or be able to replicate that at bigger minutes.

Garland was a perfect example this year. Ice time went up production stayed the same. His EV p/60 went from 2.6 - 1.9 - 2.4 to 1.7

That's averaged over all 4 seasons. 2000 minutes is a very usable sample size.

Usually when a player's ice time increases they are also playing with higher caliber players. One player does not make a trend and it's really not at all useful to cherry pick like this.

 

[theguardianII]

Agreed. And Miller is an elite playmaker on the PP, so I’d worry about Boeser’s ability to maintain that level of production without Miller. What would have been a bigger drop off in PP goals this year was masked a bit by a career high 23% PP SH%.

The problem with P/60 is how many in that 172 players above him could actually sustain or be able to replicate that at bigger minutes.

Garland was a perfect example this year. Ice time went up production stayed the same. His EV p/60 went from 2.6 - 1.9 - 2.4 to 1.7

Fans are so used to the flat cap some of these numbers look good now.

But with the cap going up the reported 113 million over the next 3 years make 8 or 9 million the upper tier six, the top second liners or PP specialists, which Boeser would be.

But then Boeser might take less to play close to home. He change colleges to be close to home before and has many connections there. He could take a home town discount much like many local players did here under the Gillis tenure. They played for a million less when a million was up to 20% of of other offers.

 

[racerjoe]

Yes this is a good break down. 30-33 goals and 60-65 pts should be a healthy norm at this stage without set backs.

I look at it like what would Pavelski Toffoli or Oshie get as a 28yr old UFA. Toffoli got screwed because of Covid so you kinda have to throw that one out and even his pts/82 was skewed over being a KIng.
He did just get 6 million for 4yrs as a 5yrs older UFA winger so even at the end of what would be a 7yr Boeser contract he's worth that in an open market.

Pavelski got 5yrs 8.7% at 30 from SJ (30-35)
Oshie got 8yrs 7.6% at 30 from Wash (30-38)
Toffoli got 4yrs @ 6.82% at 32 (32-36)

Boeser is 28 at 95.5M CAP the range is 6.5m to 8.3 using these 3 examples and extending to 35/38yrs old

I want to highlight this, cause it uses cap % which is the way you should always look at the cap. Otherwise you are just pulling numbers from the past that will always be below market value.

 

[sting101]

That's averaged over all 4 seasons. 2000 minutes is a very usable sample size.

Usually when a player's ice time increases they are also playing with higher caliber players. One player does not make a trend and it's really not at all useful to cherry pick like this.

Cherry pick?

I'm just letting you know that your numbers are flawed by using 4 yrs at 2000 minutes. Thats only 500 min per year which equates to anyone in the top10 of teams EV ice time

Safe to say a top line scorer is getting a top defensive unit and more minutes to absorb vs Nils Hoglander who doesn't PK doesn't PP and get to go balls to the wall for 12-13 minutes a game.

If you think that's cherry picking then ok sure i cherry picked. Just play Drew O'Connor for 20 minutes and see what happens

 

[sting101]

Basically it's Boeser's agent knowing he will get 50-56 million and the probability of a better tax situation vs the 40 million the Canucks have offered.

Canucks are using the media again to try and make BB6 come down to a more reasonable term and amount before someone offers him that.

If you believe in his off ice work ethic i wouldn't be afraid to venture into 6-7yrs myself simply because Garland and Sherwood are both up next year and Lekkerimaki's upside is questionable after this year. He certainly does not look like an impact player at this stage anyway and even if he does start to show that you hold cards to play not hoping again for players to play above their past successes