Briere Scorecard
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FlyerNutter
In the forest, a man learns what it means to live
Yes...Risto who we've been told numerous times would be moved at the TDL or offseason
Pelt who could have been had for free
Briere is more of the same..none of the moves moved me..made me want to watch them more
They stockpiled draft picks for the wrong year
Pelt who could have been had for free
Briere is more of the same..none of the moves moved me..made me want to watch them more
They stockpiled draft picks for the wrong year
Jojo's point was that if you're trading a pick down the road a year later you should be getting another asset to offset the time lost having that in the system. Banking on the pick being earlier isn't enough of a premium to move off the pick.
Jo Jo's expertise is solving complex problems, not finance.
This was purchasing an option, the worst they could end up with was #32 in 2025 v #32 in 2024, the best? Well, right now Edmonton is #22 with serious goalie issues.
Time value of money depends on the discount rate, during a rebuild, you have a low discount rate b/c getting an asset a year early may hurt your draft position more than it helps your rebuild. So it makes sense for Danny to make deals for future picks if he can get more value that way. If you then want to accelerate the rebuild, you can use future picks to add assets in the present.
The key is to maximize optionality, so you're able to capitalize on any opportunity that arises, so you want to free up cap room (not necessarily to add FAs, extensions, taking on bad contracts, retaining money) and accumulate assets.
Man, the website finally comes back, and this is what I've got to deal with?
Edmonton can go on a run and win the cup, now they're picking 32 and lost a whole year having a tangible asset in the system. Punting to the following year like this just reeks of laziness. Get something, anything, to make it more favourable for yourself, even if it's just taking the lottery protection off. If you can't get the premium then you trust your "great" scouts to help you make the pick at 32 and get that guy in the system.
I understand the concept of optionality as it pertains to sports. I loved the Sixers-Kings swap trade for example.
The problem I have is that they threw out the entire history of the valuation of trading back a year near the top of a draft in every major sport to do it. We can disagree on players all we want. That’s completely normal. I’m open to discussion on every other trade they’ve made and am more than happy to agree to disagree. I’ve even agreed with you that the Risto trade was an evaluation error rather than one of trade value.
If that pick ends up 17th, it changes nothing. If that 17th pick turns into Wayne McLemieux, it changes nothing. I said this on the day it was made, so it’s not revisionist history. It’s on the modern Flyers Mount Rushmore of obviously incorrect process with things like ignoring their own draft board to take Garrett Klotz and the dopey Hextall “we know he can’t play hockey but here’s Goulbourne anyway because ~magic~” horseshit. These are problems of process so irredeemably flawed that there will never be any recovery.
lol more wins than losses...
DB has been a very milquetoast meh with his management so far
DB has been a very milquetoast meh with his management so far
Agree to disagree.
If you know you're picking #32, and you know you're going to suck for a few more years (no urgency to use said pick) then there is significant value in buying a substantial probability of picking higher in the next draft.
The reason most of the time you have to pay a premium is you're talking picks in the 20s, and a pick next year is from a PO team that has a significant probability of a lower pick next season as much as a higher pick - so unless you're sure that team is on a last hurrah, you want to be compensated for picking a year later with the same expected draft position but which also includes a non-zero probability of a far less valuable pick.
In this case, 0 probability of a worse pick,
#30-31, about a 4th rd pick value
#27-29, 3rd rd value
#23-26, later half of 2nd rd
#15-22, first half of 2nd rd
So expected value was probably a pick in the #45-75 range - that was value Briere obtained.
PS: The history of valuation is simply SOP of a bunch of troglodytes, how much weight should be placed upon it?
Danny doesn't use historical comps like a simpleton for his valuations. He's a Wharton man. He models out a full DCF and LBO for his valuations, which is why we're seeing such great returns with a rock solid investment thesis.
Also, this post surely isn't a coincidence coming the night after the broadcast officially announces that they're rebuilding. Two games ago the narrative was still "they're only 4 points out!"
Also, this post surely isn't a coincidence coming the night after the broadcast officially announces that they're rebuilding. Two games ago the narrative was still "they're only 4 points out!"
Briere threw the towel in when he traded Frost and Farabee, it's not that they were that good, it's that this team lacks depth, so by trading (2) 3rd line forwards, he was basically writing the season off, same way trading Walker did so last season. Trading Laughton just finished the job.
You can see what happens when the team falls out of any credible shot at the playoffs, it's just hard for players to be motivated when they're playing out the string, they had the inevitable slump but played a great game against TB (even without Kucherov, they're clearly the more talented team). Players are human, they need at least the illusion that the games matter.
Next year I expect the same, they'll try to compete, but if they are close to the TDL and the POs seem out of reach, Briere will start moving out bodies.
These are the exact arguments I would use when talking to a poor GM on a trade call.
There's also a non-zero chance you get 32 back. You can't skip that. But really the problem here is that all of these valuations are based on both the 1sts being in the same year. That's not how this trade worked.
Since it has to be brought up every time because it's so impossibly dense, predicting the value of the best player on your board in these examples a full year in advance is a fool's errand. These picks don't exist in a vacuum. The team trading into this year is paying for the certainty of the player acquired, not the certainty of picking 28th vs 31st. Not one single aspect of this passes any muster.
It' kinda easy to beat Fletcher who was the worst when it comes to trading and contract negotiations. Also no big deal beating Hextall who was the worst at evaluating talent at the NHL level.
The upcoming offseason and free agency will pretty much define who Danny B. can be as a GM. (draft is pretty much run by Flahr anyway)
The upcoming offseason and free agency will pretty much define who Danny B. can be as a GM. (draft is pretty much run by Flahr anyway)
