I’m not as bearish on Gallagher as most.
A quick look past his stat line reveals almost the exact same Gallagher we’ve known since 2013.
The Bull Case:
• His finishing was 10% below league average, this is unsustainably low.
• His expected goals rate was 17% above league average. This ties his career high in 2014-15, and is one percent higher that his 2012-13 rookie season. His ability to turn nothings into high danger chances is still here, and it’s still in full force.
• Some of his peers in expected goals rate: Jesper Bratt, Timo Meier, Jason Robertson, Jeff Skinner, Matthew Tkachuk, Mitch Marner, Carter Verhaeghe. This is an above average group of players.
• The line of Tatar-Danault-Gallagher (one of the most consistent and effective 5v5 lines in the modern era) was dismantled, and the team bottomed out to historical lows. This obviously had an effect. Frustration, lack of fit, lower quality of teammates obviously played a huge factor. A roster shakeup and improvement seems to me in motion for next year, this should add a boost to his confidence and finishing.
The Bear Case:
• He’s 30 years old. Roughly 6-7 years out of his statistical prime. 30 goals and 60+ points is out of the question.
• His first year removed from Danault showed a huge drop in isolated defensive impacts, something that was always average to slightly above average since 2013. This is the first clear fall off in his game. The first domino?
• Injuries. Two lower body injuries, a broken thumb, broken jaw.
Gallagher’s game was never built on speed or skill, i’m not worried about him slowing down. Think Patric Hörnqvist. I would like to see Dadonov-Evans-Gallagher or maybe Ylonen-Wright-Gallagher, to an extent.
I still think there’s reason for hope.