AlfiesHair
Registered User
- Jul 7, 2020
- 16
- 30
As we all know, NHL scoring goes up and down over time. I've spent the past week or so trying to figure out the exact trends that led to these increases and decreases to some luck, but I would REALLY like some input from some of this forum's more knowledgeable hockey historians. I will continue to edit the OP if people add good analysis.
Trends I Have Found
Formative Era (1918-1923) - 4.18 GPG
High scoring because:
Less scoring because:
Slightly higher scoring because:
Large scoring bump because:
Scoring quickly decreased again because:
Not very confident in my analysis for this era, but scoring went up slightly maybe because:
Scoring increased because:
Scoring rose AGAIN because:
Drastic decrease in scoring occurred because:
Lockout rule changes sparked a very brief offensive uptick because:
Teams adjusted to the offensive rule changes quickly, sparking a second DPE as:
We are seeing a slight uptick in scoring the past few years because:
Trends I Have Found
- NHL will change rules to encourage offense more than defense as high offense is more exciting
- Teams will copy other successful teams, successful strategy changes are often adopted quickly
- Skill dilution in the NHL normally leads to more offense (ex. WWII Era, Expansion Era), the more skilled a league is the less scoring occurs (ex. PCHA Absorption, Original Six Era)
Formative Era (1918-1923) - 4.18 GPG
High scoring because:
- Extremely limited goaltending techniques, goalies could go down at this point but saves were made mostly from reactions, less from positioning
- Less sophisticated defensive systems, games were often determined by pure skill and often one on one play
- Diluted league as half the skilled players were in the PCHA
- Mismatched teams due to lack of any kind of parity enforcement made for more blowouts
- Less protective equipment led to slightly less physical contact, especially systematic physical contact, which allowed more puck movement
Less scoring because:
- Defensive structures became more of a focus (ex. “Box” defense) as the Ottawa Senators dynasty led by Pete Green was so successful and almost every team copied them
- Goaltending techniques improved and equipment got bigger, especially chest protectors and pads
- Physicality increased as protective gear got slightly better, offensive movement was harder
- PCHA absorption in 1927 made the NHL the most skilled so far leading to more defense and the three lowest GPG seasons in NHL history
Slightly higher scoring because:
- Forward passing allowed in all zones allowing for quicker breakouts and offensive movement, this completely changed offensive strategies (immediate cherry picking was stopped by the offside rule)
- Penalty awarded to teams that passes puck into their own defensive zone, encouraging aggression
- Rule change forcing only three defending players (including goalie) allowed in defensive zone at a time implemented
- Goalie equipment sizes shrink
- Delay of game penalties implemented
Large scoring bump because:
- Huge portion of skilled players conscripted into WWII from 1942-1946 making scoring increase as less-skilled players are far worse at defensive systems, goaltending talent pool also takes a huge hit
- When skilled players returned, scoring was still up as they re-learned systems after years out of the league
- Forward passes across lines rule change allowed creating quicker breakouts and offensive movement
Scoring quickly decreased again because:
- As stars returned to the NHL from war, league became very talented again and more defensive (this era was arguably the most skilled the NHL had ever been up to this point as the game expanded faster than the league, the more skilled a league is the more defense which kept scoring from going up too high)
- Defense-first strategies (ex. Box, Man-on-Man Locking) were dominant and more refined, conservative systems emphasized preventing goals more than scoring
- Goaltending strategies increased making scoring harder (ex. early variations of the Butterfly [Hall], far more active stick-work like poke-checking and passing [Plante], angle play, rebound control)
- Goalie equipment got more advanced with larger gloves and improved leg pads
Not very confident in my analysis for this era, but scoring went up slightly maybe because:
- Weaker goaltending due to most of the goalies during this period being older, more beat up goalies of the previous era (ex. Plante, Hall, Bower, etc.) in a unique period where younger goalies were still worse than the star older goalies
- The slap shot became popularized and perfected (ex. Hull, Geoffrion) during this era, leading to a slight uptick in goals
- Penalties were slightly more enforced leading to more powerplays and offensive freedom
- Offensive strategies were emphasized more? The heavy defensive mindsets may have been slightly dropped?
Scoring increased because:
- Bobby Orr revolutionized the defender position, defensemen were now more encouraged to join rushes and quarterback power plays/offensive zone possession
- Offense-first strategies became more prominent with emphasis on hard forechecking (dump and chase), cycling, risk-taking, and increased puck movement and possession (perhaps Soviet/European influence)
- Increase in PP% due to defense activation, the prominence of the Overload Formation
- Lack of evolution in goalie equipment and strategy since the 1960s put goalies behind forwards (ex. heavy leather pads that got heavier with sweat not competing with lighter hockey sticks)
- Expansion diluted the skill in the league, particularly the goalie talent pool as there were not enough “starter-quality” goaltenders for every team, defense always gets worse with less talented players overall
- Uneven team skill spread allowed Original Six teams to feast on weak expansion teams, more blowouts
- Rink sizes were standardized more and increased slightly in width allowing for more puck movement and rushes
Scoring rose AGAIN because:
- Strategy shift emphasizing offense, coaches (ex. Sather, Keenan) abandoned the hard-nosed defense-first mentality and emphasized aggressive forchecking, offensive risk-taking, rushes, and puck possession even more
- NHL imposed higher penalty enforcement (ex. Fighting and roughing penalties) as the rough game of the 70s (ex. Broad Street Bullies) was perceived as dangerous and less-marketable, leading to more powerplays
- Power play systems (ex. Umbrella Formation) evolved leading to an increase in PP%, NHL has never seen a higher PP% or PPO in its history
- Continued lack of evolution in goalie equipment and strategy since the 1960s put goalies even further behind skaters
- Curved stick blades (kind of invented by Mikita and Hull but not popularized until the 80s) were popularized as better stick materials (ex. composite, fiberglass) allowed for better curves, raised/accurate shots to become more common
- Further expansion diluted goalie talent pool, not enough “starter-quality” goaltenders for every team, expansion also always leads to worse defense
- Offensive zone grows in 1991 allowing for more space for the offensive team to have puck movement
Drastic decrease in scoring occurred because:
- Neutral Zone Trap (invented by European coaches and popularized by Jaques Lemaire with New Jersey Devils, copied by Florida Panthers) was extremely effective at stifling rushing-based offense and breakouts
- Popularity of the “Butterfly” goalie strategy (invented by European goalies and some Original Six goalies but popularized by Roy and others) helped make for the biggest increase in SV% in a five year period ever, offense did not adapt fast (also more popular to draft bigger goalies after this since they did not need to be as athletic or quick for the more reactionary style that used to be popular)
- Goalie equipment got exponentially bigger and lighter (ex. chest protector and pads)
- New defensive zone strategies created, wingers more engaged and video review became popularized
- European and American players began to join the NHL at much higher rates increasing the skill of the league, leading to more defense
Lockout rule changes sparked a very brief offensive uptick because:
- Two-line pass rule was eliminated allowing for quicker and more efficient breakouts
- Offensive zone grows allowing for more space for the offensive team to have puck movement
- Referees encouraged to call more stick penalties (ex. hooking, slashing, tripping calls) leading to more power plays, forwards could also function better
- Goalie equipment sizes shrunk
Teams adjusted to the offensive rule changes quickly, sparking a second DPE as:
- The Neutral Zone Trap was still common and still hard to beat
- PP% was up slightly as systems got better but PPO per game decreased dramatically as teams got more restrained
- League got more skilled overall as it got more international and lack of expansion occurred (generally means less offense overall)
- SV% was at an all time high as goalie equipment, techniques, and defensive systems kept improving
We are seeing a slight uptick in scoring the past few years because:
- Positionless playing in the offensive zone (ex. constant scissor maneuvers and rotations in offensive zone with every player covering for each other) is extremely hard to defend
- Offensive defensemen that rush, breakout, and execute long passes are popular and critical to modern offense and hard to prevent with the NZT (ex. increase in Karlsson and Makar styled defensemen)
- Powerplay systems evolved leading to an uptick in PP% not seen since the 80s (ex. 1-3-1 formation, positionless movement)
- Lack of goaltending evolution getting exploited by forwards (ex. out-of date RVH goalie positioning)
- New team cultures encouraging player creativity (ex. Tortorella encouraging Michkov to be creative while he used to be very old-school and structured)
- Goalie equipment sizes shrink again
- Increased usage of advanced analytics have led to strategy advancements
- Slight expansion leads to skill dilution on a per team basis, seen most in goalies
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