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Value of: Brayden Schenn

3 more years (after this one) at $6.5M. He's playing 2C for a thin Blues forward-group, but could play any forward spot in the middle-6 of a contending team. Physical, responsible, will drop the mitts and put up points. Cup-winner & current captain. Ideal blend of grit, skill and leadership for teams with championship aspirations. With cap rising, maybe the Blues would be willing to retain $1M-$1.5M/year; he'd almost certainly get $5M/year x 3-years if he were UFA this summer, so I wouldn't think the contract would be too painful.

Blues pipeline is overflowing with forwards, which is why he may become expendable. Would be looking for draft capital or NHL-ready young defensemen already drafted.

Teams like Winnipeg, New Jersey, Toronto, Vancouver or Carolina would seem to make sense from an outsiders perspective.
 
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Stealth JD said:
3 more years (after this one) at $6.5M. He's playing 2C for a thin Blues forward-group, but could play any forward spot in the middle-6 of a contending team. Physical, responsible, will drop the mitts and put up points. Cup-winner & current captain. Ideal blend of grit, skill and leadership for teams with championship aspirations. With cap rising, maybe the Blues would be willing to retain $1M-$1.5M/year; he'd almost certainly get $5M/year x 3-years if he were UFA this summer, so I wouldn't think the contract would be too painful.

Blues pipeline is overflowing with forwards, which is why he may become expendable. Would be looking for draft capital or NHL-ready young defensemen already drafted.

Teams like Winnipeg, New Jersey, Toronto or Carolina would seem to make sense from an outsiders perspective.
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Agree. I don’t think he fits the Blues rebuild window, so I’d move him if possible. My ask isn’t all that much. A 1st with no retention.
 
Mike Liut said:
Agree. I don’t think he fits the Blues rebuild window, so I’d move him if possible. My ask isn’t all that much. A 1st with no retention.
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Yeah, we'd all love that, but he's on the wrong side of 30 with 3x6.5 left on his contract and almost $15m owed to him.

He's also got a full NTC this year, but his M-NTC kicks in starting next year.

I'd be shocked if we are able to move him at all this year. Let alone for a first round pick. And if army can do all of that without retention, then he deserves a bronze statue on Clark Ave.
 
I've said this in other threads - but I see a particular match with Vancouver.
  • The Canucks are likely looking for a hard-nosed center to replace some of what JT Miller brought to their line-up.
  • Schenn has faired decently the last 1.5 seasons being matched up against the top-centers in the Western Conference — so, even if he isn't scoring, he can help neutralize minutes.
  • Vancouver made a major effort to reset their locker room culture mid-season and I think they hold the Schenn family in high regard — they brought Luke Schenn into the organization twice.
  • They have the cap space to fit him in now and later without retention — something other playoff teams can't easily do.
  • Let's not forget they were already prepared in 2024 to pay Elias Lindholm +8m x 8y to play top-nine minutes. They may view his 6.5m x 3y as a relative bargain.
That being said, I have no idea what his trade value is. I'm sure Armstrong is going to want an arm and a leg, but it's not clear to me that there will actually be that big of a market for him if STL isn't prepared to retain. It's not likely they will find a third-party to retain for that much term either. I think a lot of potential suitors will be worried about a cliff in performance.

It comes down to the motivation behind the trade. If STL decides they absolutely need to trade him. Maybe he has suggested he'd like another cup or doesn't want to rebuild. If that is the case, I would guess unretained his value is probably close to a 2nd round pick and a 5-10 rank prospect from another club.

If they don't need to trade him, they probably won't because I don't think they'll get a deal that knocks their socks off.
 
We retain 2.5 per year and should get a first in return. He can be the piece a couple of teams need. Grit, heart, etc.. will score a big goal from time to time. Has gotten much better on the dot as well.
 
Stealth JD said:
3 more years (after this one) at $6.5M. He's playing 2C for a thin Blues forward-group, but could play any forward spot in the middle-6 of a contending team. Physical, responsible, will drop the mitts and put up points. Cup-winner & current captain. Ideal blend of grit, skill and leadership for teams with championship aspirations. With cap rising, maybe the Blues would be willing to retain $1M-$1.5M/year; he'd almost certainly get $5M/year x 3-years if he were UFA this summer, so I wouldn't think the contract would be too painful.

Blues pipeline is overflowing with forwards, which is why he may become expendable. Would be looking for draft capital or NHL-ready young defensemen already drafted.

Teams like Winnipeg, New Jersey, Toronto, Vancouver or Carolina would seem to make sense from an outsiders perspective.
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Covers it well. Only question is whether he'll waive his NTC this year or M-NTC in the next three.
 
Stealth JD said:
3 more years (after this one) at $6.5M. He's playing 2C for a thin Blues forward-group, but could play any forward spot in the middle-6 of a contending team. Physical, responsible, will drop the mitts and put up points. Cup-winner & current captain. Ideal blend of grit, skill and leadership for teams with championship aspirations. With cap rising, maybe the Blues would be willing to retain $1M-$1.5M/year; he'd almost certainly get $5M/year x 3-years if he were UFA this summer, so I wouldn't think the contract would be too painful.

Blues pipeline is overflowing with forwards, which is why he may become expendable. Would be looking for draft capital or NHL-ready young defensemen already drafted.

Teams like Winnipeg, New Jersey, Toronto, Vancouver or Carolina would seem to make sense from an outsiders perspective.
Click to expand...

Defensive metrics at least from the analytics perspective are not very good.

What would you say the Blues would specifically be looking for from Toronto with 1.5-2.5M retained?
 
StickShift said:
I've said this in other threads - but I see a particular match with Vancouver.
  • The Canucks are likely looking for a hard-nosed center to replace some of what JT Miller brought to their line-up.
  • Schenn has faired decently the last 1.5 seasons being matched up against the top-centers in the Western Conference — so, even if he isn't scoring, he can help neutralize minutes.
  • Vancouver made a major effort to reset their locker room culture mid-season and I think they hold the Schenn family in high regard — they brought Luke Schenn into the organization twice.
  • They have the cap space to fit him in now and later without retention — something other playoff teams can't easily do.
  • Let's not forget they were already prepared in 2024 to pay Elias Lindholm +8m x 8y to play top-nine minutes. They may view his 6.5m x 3y as a relative bargain.
That being said, I have no idea what his trade value is. I'm sure Armstrong is going to want an arm and a leg, but it's not clear to me that there will actually be that big of a market for him if STL isn't prepared to retain. It's not likely they will find a third-party to retain for that much term either. I think a lot of potential suitors will be worried about a cliff in performance.

It comes down to the motivation behind the trade. If STL decides they absolutely need to trade him. Maybe he has suggested he'd like another cup or doesn't want to rebuild. If that is the case, I would guess unretained his value is probably close to a 2nd round pick and a 5-10 rank prospect from another club.

If they don't need to trade him, they probably won't because I don't think they'll get a deal that knocks their socks off.
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Pretty reasonable. It's also likely that Armstrong is just looking for a different type of deal. We currently have an opening that is problematic in our middle 6 at center. Trading Schenn duplicates the opening. I'm wondering if what we're looking for either includes a young center who is already getting some time at the NHL level or a prospect that is a bit closer to the NHL instead of the typical package.

I don't think it's dire to trade Schenn, I think it is kind of a dumb in a way. We're going to have to search the UFA market for a 2C if we move him. However, it also makes alot of sense in a few ways.
 
StickShift said:
I've said this in other threads - but I see a particular match with Vancouver.
  • The Canucks are likely looking for a hard-nosed center to replace some of what JT Miller brought to their line-up.
  • Schenn has faired decently the last 1.5 seasons being matched up against the top-centers in the Western Conference — so, even if he isn't scoring, he can help neutralize minutes.
  • Vancouver made a major effort to reset their locker room culture mid-season and I think they hold the Schenn family in high regard — they brought Luke Schenn into the organization twice.
  • They have the cap space to fit him in now and later without retention — something other playoff teams can't easily do.
  • Let's not forget they were already prepared in 2024 to pay Elias Lindholm +8m x 8y to play top-nine minutes. They may view his 6.5m x 3y as a relative bargain.
That being said, I have no idea what his trade value is. I'm sure Armstrong is going to want an arm and a leg, but it's not clear to me that there will actually be that big of a market for him if STL isn't prepared to retain. It's not likely they will find a third-party to retain for that much term either. I think a lot of potential suitors will be worried about a cliff in performance.

It comes down to the motivation behind the trade. If STL decides they absolutely need to trade him. Maybe he has suggested he'd like another cup or doesn't want to rebuild. If that is the case, I would guess unretained his value is probably close to a 2nd round pick and a 5-10 rank prospect from another club.

If they don't need to trade him, they probably won't because I don't think they'll get a deal that knocks their socks off.
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Nice idea.

When I see specific rumors on tsn it makes me lean toward thinking they’ll meet a buyer if they have to.

I feel one thing that helps St. Louis is the pending free agent class. If you need somebody like Schenn - you can fight over Sam Bennet maybe or that’s really it. You def aren’t finding it for 6.5 for 3 years.
 
BleedBlue14 said:
Pretty reasonable. It's also likely that Armstrong is just looking for a different type of deal. We currently have an opening that is problematic in our middle 6 at center. Trading Schenn duplicates the opening. I'm wondering if what we're looking for either includes a young center who is already getting some time at the NHL level or a prospect that is a bit closer to the NHL instead of the typical package.

I don't think it's dire to trade Schenn, I think it is kind of a dumb in a way. We're going to have to search the UFA market for a 2C if we move him. However, it also makes alot of sense in a few ways.
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Aatu Räty, you are a St Louis Blue!

IMG_5929.gif
 
I value him at 16.5 m or 5.5 m per for 3 playoff runs. That would seem like a fair contract for a useful 3c.

His contract at 4 x 6.5 m = 26 m is a bit much. The last year will be rough.

I think his contract holds about negative 9.5 m meaning he’s a negative asset.

He only gets moved for a 1st if the Blues retain.
 
jjniner said:
We retain 2.5 per year and should get a first in return. He can be the piece a couple of teams need. Grit, heart, etc.. will score a big goal from time to time. Has gotten much better on the dot as well.
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I feel like if STL retains 2.5M per year they'd get a 1st plus a good prospect.

$4M/year is a bargain for Schenn, even with his eventual decline.
 
WTFMAN99 said:
Defensive metrics at least from the analytics perspective are not very good.

What would you say the Blues would specifically be looking for from Toronto with 1.5-2.5M retained?
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If the Blues retained $1M-2M I’d simply want picks. A first if it was $1M, a 1st and a future 2nd for $2M.

I’d value Schenn at a 2nd, and $1M of retention at a 2nd. Combining Schenn with $1M takes the two seconds to a single 1st.
 
Stealth JD said:
If the Blues retained $1M-2M I’d simply want picks. A first if it was $1M, a 1st and a future 2nd for $2M.

I’d value Schenn at a 2nd, and $1M of retention at a 2nd. Combining Schenn with $1M takes the two seconds to a single 1st.
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That's a tough one, I think because of how long the retention would be occurring, it's probably right but I don't know if I could get my head around paying that for a 33 year old Brayden Schenn.

In the realm of hypotheticals etc, I would rather throw the 1st and/or 2nd+ other assets at a guy like Cozens because he's got so much tread left on the tire, like I would overpay even in terms of prospects etc because you'll get so much more out of the guy.

Wouldn't be surprised to see you get something in that realm though for Brayden Schenn.
 
I like Schenn but he'll be 34 this summer & is on pace for <20 goals & 45ish points. 2 more years at 6.5M is steep at his age.

I wouldn't break the bank for him, which STL would probably want.
 
He could be a decent option for the JETS if there’s retention. Would slot in nicely between Ehlers and Perfetti.

And Luke could be a depth option for them on the blue line. Not the best option, but an option none the less.
 
Thechozen1 said:
He could be a decent option for the JETS if there’s retention. Would slot in nicely between Ehlers and Perfetti.

And Luke could be a depth option for them on the blue line. Not the best option, but an option none the less.
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No thanks. He turns 34 before next season starts and he has three more seasons left on his contract. He is already declining.
 
He has 3 full yrs left for the ages of 34-36

Id be very concerned on him dropping off

Without retention st louis doesnt get much at all. Him retained at 50% might get a 3nd and 3rd
 
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I think people might need to readjust their understanding of contracts. The NHL cap is about to jump drastically. Right now a 113.5M cap is a reasonable estimate for the last year of Schenn's contract. That would put Schenn's contract at 5.7% of the total cap, which is equivalent to a 5 million contract this season. If you want to take about a 1.5M retention to soften the blow of that final year, it's already baked into the changing landscape of the cap.

With the cap rising, preexisting contracts are actually more valuable. I'm not saying Schenn's contract is super good or anything, but it's certainly not going to be as awful as people are saying. With the cap rising and a weak free agency class, Schenn's contract does not seem that bad for a good middle six center with tons of intangibles. I would not be surprised to see a team take the contract on in full, but the return would obviously be even better if there was retention as well. It's important to note as well that the actual people in control of these organizations seem to have a much higher opinion of Schenn than most online posters here, whether they are correct or not.
 
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