Player Discussion Brady Tkachuk: Episode 5 - Management Strikes Back

[aragorn]

It's interesting - I remember seeing the results from some of those player polls and quite a few made comments about how they like to put on Sportsnet and TSN when they are on the road up in Canada because hockey is so much more prominent.

I don't doubt that... where would you like to live given the millions they make?

 

[JD1]

Idk boys. 98% kind of thing of all the guys in the league come from cold weather climates. Canadians obviously. Swedes. Finns. Russians. Czechs. Most Americans are from the northern states. I think climate gets overrated. Apart from that, Ottawa consistently does well in "nice cities to live" type polls

 

[NyQuil]

I don't doubt that... where would you like to live given the millions they make?

If I was a hockey player, I might want to play where hockey is the #1 sport.

My professional career would be that much more meaningful to the place where I lived.

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

8 x 8M would be fine by me.

For a guy whose career high might be 65 points?

 

[aragorn]

If I was a hockey player, I might want to play where hockey is the #1 sport.

My professional career would be that much more meaningful to the place where I lived.

Beats me, after visiting southern California & the beaches & the coast line, man that's a pretty beautiful place & pretty hard to beat. Given the amount of fans going or not going to games here in Ottawa, it would be interesting to know how the players here feel about the lack of fans & energy in the building, except when the stinking Leafs & Habs are here.

 

[GCK]

For a guy whose career high might be 65 points?

Two things. You have no idea what his ceiling is, and second, a talented, exuberant power forward who will wear a letter is easily worth an 8 x 8.

I also think he is a 35+ scorer who could be a PPG player. People who criticize his balance are not watching the development of his hands and vision. Underestimate at your own peril.

We finally found our unicorn. Lock him up.

 

[GCK]

Beats me, after visiting southern California & the beaches & the coast line, man that's a pretty beautiful place & pretty hard to beat. Given the amount of fans going or not going to games here in Ottawa, it would be interesting to know how the players here feel about the lack of fans & energy in the building, except when the stinking Leafs & Habs are here.

The two I asked said it is fine and they expect the fans to come back when they start winning. I honestly couldn’t tell if they were lying.

 

[Shruggs Peterson]

Several factors in my thinking.
1. If Brady goes to next summer he will be offer sheet bait. Almost every team would match any offer, but Melnyk.
2. The team is still trying to sell tickets. I think they push to sign Brady this summer as more proof they are committed to spending. Nobody is signing a bridge a year early.
3. I expect about 30 goals from Brady next season. With everything else he brings I think you would be looking at 7 x 3 on a bridge.
4. Brady loves hockey and works at it non stop. He is not someone I am scared to lock up long term.

1. There has been 1 offer sheet in the past 6 seasons. Signing Brady to an 8x8 deal because of what some other team might puts the team at a needless disadvantage from the outset of negotiations.
2. Being committed to spending does not mean overvaluing the players on the team and signing them to deals they may never live up to. Paying a player based on expected production is fine to a certain extent, but let's say Brady hits 50-55 points this year. That is awfully hard to rationalize a deal of 8 mil this summer. There has to be more hard evidence before committing that kind of money.
3. That would be great if he potted 30, and yes 7 over 3, just like his brother, would great too. Let's leave it there lol.
4. Okay, but I certainly hope those are not factors that go into a negotiation. There are several players that love their sport and work at it, but that's because they're professional athletes. Athletes can hate their sport but still put in the work to be one of the best for the sake of self-preservation.

 

[JD1]

For a guy whose career high might be 65 points?

Idk man....you're a pretty big advocate of EK and his 11.5 AAV and he may never hit 65 again

 

[JD1]

Beats me, after visiting southern California & the beaches & the coast line, man that's a pretty beautiful place & pretty hard to beat. Given the amount of fans going or not going to games here in Ottawa, it would be interesting to know how the players here feel about the lack of fans & energy in the building, except when the stinking Leafs & Habs are here.

Nice place to visit, wouldn't want to live there

 

[GCK]

1. There has been 1 offer sheet in the past 6 seasons. Signing Brady to an 8x8 deal because of what some other team might puts the team at a needless disadvantage from the outset of negotiations.
2. Being committed to spending does not mean overvaluing the players on the team and signing them to deals they may never live up to. Paying a player based on expected production is fine to a certain extent, but let's say Brady hits 50-55 points this year. That is awfully hard to rationalize a deal of 8 mil this summer. There has to be more hard evidence before committing that kind of money.
3. That would be great if he potted 30, and yes 7 over 3, just like his brother, would great too. Let's leave it there lol.
4. Okay, but I certainly hope those are not factors that go into a negotiation. There are several players that love their sport and work at it, but that's because they're professional athletes. Athletes can hate their sport but still put in the work to be one of the best for the sake of self-preservation.

I just don’t think Brady signs long term unless it’s a year out.
Just for fun, what do you think a 30 goal Brady would command from this team ?

 

[Crosside]

6.5 m x 8

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

Idk man....you're a pretty big advocate of EK and his 11.5 AAV and he may never hit 65 again

Shame he suffered another injury but EK in a bad season would outproduce Tkachuk.

They aren't anywhere near the same realm of talent.

11.5 mill for a 4 time Norris finalist who almost carried a team to the cup vs 8 mill for a player who likely won't hit 60 points before that contract is signed and doesn't have the skill set to carry a line, let alone a team

 

[Shruggs Peterson]

I just don’t think Brady signs long term unless it’s a year out.
Just for fun, what do you think a 30 goal Brady would command from this team ?

Well then he could be leaving a lot of money on the table if he's not willing to wait.

Let's say he does wait until next summer and hits 30-30-60 next season and the team looks to sign long term. I think 6.5-7 over 8 year is fair for both sides.

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

Two things. You have no idea what his ceiling is, and second, a talented, exuberant power forward who will wear a letter is easily worth an 8 x 8.

I also think he is a 35+ scorer who could be a PPG player. People who criticize his balance are not watching the development of his hands and vision. Underestimate at your own peril.

We finally found our unicorn. Lock him up.

Just because we can't know for sure what a players ceiling is doesn't mean we can't project based off what we've seen.

So far what we've seen is that Tkachuk is unstoppable in front of the net and on the forecheck but easily stoppable when he has the puck away from these areas. It's hard being a PPG player by just being a netfront player.

He'd have to make massive gains in his hands, vision, creativity, speed to become the PPG player you're projecting.

That's just a lot to ask for a player especially when some of those are things that are the hardest to improve.

 

[GCK]

Well then he could be leaving a lot of money on the table if he's not willing to wait.

Let's say he does wait until next summer and hits 30-30-60 next season and the team looks to sign long term. I think 6.5-7 over 8 year is fair for both sides.

You aren’t getting a 30-30 player like Brady Tkachuk for 7M over 8 years. You are vastly underrating everything he brings to the table on top of points. Points might be everything for a Hoffman type player not Brady.

 

[GCK]

Shame he suffered another injury but EK in a bad season would outproduce Tkachuk.

They aren't anywhere near the same realm of talent.

11.5 mill for a 4 time Norris finalist who almost carried a team to the cup vs 8 mill for a player who likely won't hit 60 points before that contract is signed and doesn't have the skill set to carry a line, let alone a team

It’s a terrible idea to pay a player for past performance he cannot replicate over the new contract. Just an awful way to operate any type of business.

 

[JungleBeat]

Two things. You have no idea what his ceiling is, and second, a talented, exuberant power forward who will wear a letter is easily worth an 8 x 8.

I also think he is a 35+ scorer who could be a PPG player. People who criticize his balance are not watching the development of his hands and vision. Underestimate at your own peril.

We finally found our unicorn. Lock him up.

The only way I see Tkachuk being a 35+ scorer and being PPG is if has an elite top end 1C as his line mate. His current skill set doesn’t give any indication of being a ppg player.

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

It’s a terrible idea to pay a player for past performance he cannot replicate over the new contract. Just an awful way to operate any type of business.

Well Karlsson had a stretch just last year where he was the most dominant player in the NHL it's not unreasonable that he can do it again. Since ya know he's done multiple times.

What's dumber is paying a player 8 mill over 8 years when he's never had a single season worth that type of money and has a minor chance of ever being worth that type of money.

 

[GCK]

The only way I see Tkachuk being a 35+ scorer and being PPG is if has an elite top end 1C as his line mate. His current skill set doesn’t give any indication of being a ppg player.

I am blown away by his progress. I’m thinking that a 20 year old growing into his body on a crap team who already has.611 points per game over 121 games might not have a 65 point ceiling.

 

[GCK]

Well Karlsson had a stretch just last year where he was the most dominant player in the NHL it's not unreasonable that he can do it again. Since ya know he's done multiple times.

What's dumber is paying a player 8 mill over 8 years when he's never had a single season worth that type of money and has a minor chance of ever being worth that type of money.

I get that you love the player but he is no longer elite. He is declining as all players do with age and injury.

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

I get that you love the player but he is no longer elite. He is declining as all players do with age and injury.

Aren't we talking about Tkachuk?

Tell me why you think giving a player who will most likely be coming off a 55ish point season an 8 year 64 million dollar contract.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

The only way I see Tkachuk being a 35+ scorer and being PPG is if has an elite top end 1C as his line mate. His current skill set doesn’t give any indication of being a ppg player.

You don’t need to be a PPG player to make 8 million. That being said I don’t think he’d get that right away

 

[GCK]

Aren't we talking about Tkachuk?

Tell me why you think giving a player who will most likely be coming off a 55ish point season an 8 year 64 million dollar contract.

Because I believe he projects as a power play force, leader, sandpaper and close to a PPG player as he fills out. He’s a 25-25 at 20 years old using his career PPG. I believe it’s prudent to pay now and have 9 years of cost certainty.

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

Because I believe he projects as a power play force, leader, sandpaper and close to a PPG player as he fills out. He’s a 25-25 at 20 years old using his career PPG. I believe it’s prudent to pay now and have 9 years of cost certainty.

I mean if he becomes a consistent 70 point player he should get 8 mill. I just don't understand why you want to already pay him that money without him actually doing it.

Unless you think Brady is actually a 10 mill a year player when guys like Matthews, Kucherov, Rantanen, Marner, Panarin make 9 to 11.5 mill.