Brad Treliving is doing a great job.

[LeafSteel]

Can we please have a thread that is dedicated to Treliving, and the job he is doing please?

The Dubasites seem unable to cope and have no purpose here other than to derail it.

 

[Dekes For Days]

That's not how it works - it was arguably harder if anything because there was less separation between the top and the bottom this year with more parity, and less opportunities to pick up easy points against shit teams.

The worse teams got better, and the better teams got worse. That doesn't represent a change in the quality of competition. Getting 103+ points to win the division is not harder than getting 123+, 136+, or 111+ points to win the division.

 

[IPS]

Can you explain how Treliving does, for people who make fun of Keefe/Dubas for playoff success, Treliving has exactly the same amount.

TBD

 

[Donnie740]

That's a weird comparison for you to make, considering my conclusions are evidence-based, while yours are just hope and blind faith.

“Expected” stats are not factua results, my friend. The expectations often don’t line up with reality.

Your expected outcome for the Leafs regular season did not align with the reality that they finished in first place in the division.

Your expected outcome for the Leafs game 1 did not align with the reality that they cruised to a 6-2 win.

Factual results are the only thing that matters. And the cold hard reality is that the Atlantic Division champions are up 1-0 in their playoff series.

Sorry about your luck, my friend.

 

[IPS]

Taking away the accomplishment of finishing first in a competitive division because the raw point totals weren't as good as previous seasons and saying it was 'easier' is comical. That's not how it works - it was arguably harder if anything because there was less separation between the top and the bottom this year with more parity, and less opportunities to pick up easy points against shit teams. Detroit, Montreal, Ottawa were far more competitive this time around. The Bruins fell off, but they were also right in the mix until close to the trade deadline where they decided to torpedo the season and sell off their team.

In 2022, half the division finished with 75 pts or less, this season no team in the Atlantic finished with less than 76 pts and only two teams had below 80 pts.

That's the wonderful thing about sports, you either win it or you don't. Doesn't matter if it takes you 28 games to win the cup or 16 games.

 

[notbias]

TBD

Sure, let's pause all conversations until then...

 

[notbias]

View attachment 1020101

Can we please have a thread that is dedicated to Treliving, and the job he is doing please?

The Dubasites seem unable to cope and have no purpose here other than to derail it.

It is called a discussion, if you are not mature enough to handle contradicting opinions, just DM yourself

 

[DarkKnight]

One GM/Coach tandem face planted repeatedly, this one the jury is out. So why even compare yet? I'd rather just cheer for my team to do well, as I did, without reservation, with the narcissist and his AHL coach.

There is nothing more intellectually boring than knee jerk contrarians. f***ing sleep aid lol.

 

[Jojalu]

Obviously what has happened in the regular season doesn't need to carry over to the playoffs, and obviously you can win with bad underlying stats, we've done it all year.

The argument is, relying this heavily on goaltending (if we continue to do so) may come back to bite us, it doesn't seem like a reliable way to try to win 4 out 7 games each series.

Also, the narrative that we have somehow got amazing defensively when we haven't, is just that, a narrative.

Having said all this, Stolarz has been great, and if the play continues, he may be able to steal some games, and lots of teams have gone far with hot goaltending, so lets hope it is us this year.

This year it feels like they are trying to play 50/50 hockey and rely on that extra good bounce to win, you just need the puck to bounce right when you aren't dominating play.

The fact is, people hate Dubas and downplay any success this team had under him.

The core couldn't bail him out when they had shaky goaltending.

The Leafs had some pretty good teams in the past couple years but failed. It happens.

Can Tre ride great goaltending deeper? 100%. We see it almost every year.

Yourself, Dekes and a few others have some good points. Good goaltending has saved them a bit this year. But owning the puck and outplaying other teams was getting them nowhere.

If Stolarz can carry the team into the third round, or if Matthews and Marner have a great playoffs then I don't care that they tend to be on the wrong side of the shot counter. Price, Vasi and Bob stonewalled them. Maybe it's their turn

 

[Donnie740]

Can you explain how Treliving does, for people who make fun of Keefe/Dubas for playoff success, Treliving has exactly the same amount.

Treliving’s teams have reached the second round of the playoffs twice, which is more than Dumbass has accomplished.

Treliving has also won THREE (3) regular season divisional titles with two different franchises, something Dumbass has never been able to do even once.

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

If the Leafs were to win the Cup this year - - the Stanley Cup, not the Corsi Cup - - would you finally acknowledge that Treliving and Berube are vastly superior to Kyle Dumbass and Bozo The Keefe?

Or will you continue to grasp at cherry picked statistics to try and discredit their accomplishments?

It's so weird. I'd understand their cult if Dubas/Keefe were Hall of Famers or something. But in reality, they weren't great, nor were they awful. They were OK.

Bottom line is, the Leafs failed to do anything in the playoffs. It's a results-based business.

 

[IPS]

The fact is, people hate Dubas and downplay any success this team had under him.

The core couldn't bail him out when they had shaky goaltending.

That's why ya gotta have a GM who knows goaltending. It's not voodoo as is commonly perpetuated.

Tre has NAILED the goaltending situation and if it leads to more success, it's going to be attributed to him and not some dumb luck.

 

[notbias]

Treliving’s teams have reached the second round of the playoffs twice, which is more than Dumbass has accomplished.

Treliving has also won THREE (3) regular season divisional titles with two different franchises, something Dumbass has never been able to do even once.

Dubas won one, just FYI, but regardless, does regular season count now?

They have both got as far as the 2nd round.

It feels weird arguing with someone under the age of 13, no way someone over that age would assign these nicknames to other grown men...

 

[DarkKnight]

It's so weird. I'd understand their cult if Dubas/Keefe were Hall of Famers or something. But in reality, they weren't great, nor were they awful. They were OK.

Bottom line is, the Leafs failed to do anything in the playoffs. It's a results-based business.

And everyone talks about the core Tre inherited, Dubas inherited a goldmine of young talent with cap space to die for. The guy literally walked into an incredible opportunity by any objective measure.

 

[notbias]

That's why ya gotta have a GM who knows goaltending. It's not voodoo as is commonly perpetuated.

Tre has NAILED the goaltending situation and if it leads to more success, it's going to be attributed to him and not some dumb luck.

Samsanov was our starter last year and he gave Markstrom 6 million per year...

He should get credit if Stolarz continues playing how he is, but let's not pretend he has this great track record.

And everyone talks about the core Tre inherited, Dubas inherited a goldmine of young talent with cap space to die for. The guy literally walked into an incredible opportunity by any objective measure.

Player evaluation brought to you by the man who thought Reaves > McMann...

 

[Jojalu]

That's why ya gotta have a GM who knows goaltending. It's not voodoo as is commonly perpetuated.

Tre has NAILED the goaltending situation and if it leads to more success, it's going to be attributed to him and not some dumb luck.

Fact!

The Stolarz signing was excellent and all the credit goes to him whether he saw something or he listened to his pro scouts.

 

[Dekes For Days]

“Expected” stats are not factua results, my friend. The expectations often don’t line up with reality. Your expected outcome for the Leafs regular season did not align with the reality that they finished in first place in the division. Your expected outcome for the Leafs game 1 did not align with the reality that they cruised to a 6-2 win.

A lot more was provided than just expected stats (I posted 41 stats, for the record), and expected stats are real and valuable. You just don't really seem to understand what they measure, and are getting tripped up on the name. They're not really supposed to perfectly align with outcomes. They represent skater performance, but goalies have a considerable impact on outcomes as well. Expected stats alone don't determine whether you win a division or game, but that doesn't make them any less valuable. And for the record, we had more expected goals than Ottawa in game 1, so not even really sure what you're on about.

 

[Sypher04]

Expected stats are hot garbage and always have been

 

[notbias]

Expected stats are hot garbage and always have been

Might want to tell all the NHL teams...

 

[DarkKnight]

Expected stats are hot garbage and always have been

Obviously. Look at our results over the years. I swear some of these guys think we've won cups in their heads. It doesn't matter, results do. It's instructive to a point, but it's "we're getting lots of looks", but also " not f***ing burying it", which is the difference between winners and losers.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Searching for feelings that reinforce your feelings doesn't make feelings true, sorry. Facts are facts. These aren't experts, there to tell you the truth. They are media personalities, with the same human biases (and even more exposure to traditional hockey narratives), who are there to sell you the most simplistic version of the story that you want to hear. They sell this every year; a reason why "this year is different". It means nothing.

We are different in some ways, especially relative to last year (which is why most analysts intentionally compare to that), but different doesn't mean better. I don't know why some feel the need to trash past versions of the team and pretend everything is now better to feel optimistic and hopeful about this year. Is this the best version of this team? No. Is this team still capable of winning? Absolutely. Just enjoy the ride, instead of trying to make it something it's not.

Have we won a lot going into the playoffs? Yes, that's great! Have we done that before? Yes. Are we playing a different style? Yes, though it's more similar to how we tend to play in game 7s, which a lot of people used to hate. Is that style better in general, better for this team, or more conducive to playoff success? No. Do we have 4 good defensemen? Yes. Is it better than every other iteration? No, and our bottom pairing and defense from our forward depth has been worse, and the system hasn't been working well. Have we relied less on our core? No. Do we blow coverage less? No.

What these guys suggest is meaningless to me. We all have opinions and feelings. Why are you afraid of the objective data? I included multiple different stats (including ones people have used and ones that address claims people have made), and broke it down into different game states for everyone. A lot of the people dismissing these stats were happy to use them when they supported their narrative. The real question is, if all of the objective data points in one direction, why do some insist on constantly repeating these disproven claims?

I think most fans are tired of looking at the deserve to win-o-meter and seeing us with losses even though the analytics say we should have won. No more moral victories for us....

I also think most fans are willing to try a different style since 8yrs of the other styles never produced a result we wanted except for 1 series win in which we got badly outplayed and Vassi was just too shitty to close the deal for TB.

I think we shouldn't be dismissive of the current style of play until it proves to be just as futile as the previous iterations of this team.

 

[Donnie740]

A lot more was provided than just expected stats (I posted 41 stats, for the record), and expected stats are real and valuable.

You cherry picked 41 stats to support your ridiculous attempt at discrediting the Leafs win in Game 1. And that’s the problem with relying so heavily on statistics - - you focus on the ones that align with your bias.

I could come up with 41 stats to “prove” how dominating the Leafs were in Game 1 - - shooting percentage, save percentage, power play efficiency, penalty kill efficiency are all way more valuable than the irrelevant minutiae you’re grasping at.

Ultimately though, the only stat that matters far and above all else is the scoreboard. And that was 6-2 in favour of Toronto.

Sorry about your luck.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

You're clinging to your stats like they're holy scripture, but the second anything falls outside your spreadsheet, it's suddenly "just opinion." That’s not analysis, that’s tunnel vision with an ego.


You keep asking for proof of systems like they’re going to magically pop up in a row on your favorite site. Sorry to break it to you, but not everything in hockey fits into a clean chart. Forechecking, structured zone exits, smart line deployment—these things actually happen whether your xGF% approves or not.


And the Stolarz MVP point? Great, you noticed a goalie playing well. But elite goaltending doesn’t cancel out system play, it benefits from it. If the team really was an uncoached mess giving up grade-A chances nonstop, he’d be getting shelled nightly, not praised for timely saves. You think one player performing well is proof the rest of the team is garbage? That’s some elite-level logic gymnastics.


Maybe instead of shouting “where are the stats” every time someone makes a point, try watching the games like they aren’t just background noise while you reload Natural Stat Trick.

Agreed, plus, I am sure that not all high danger chances are considered equal. How do we know that the previous years of high danger shots are the same as this years. It seems the goaltending is much better...but could it be better because of the system helping them see the puck? I tend to think so...but time will tell us if we are just beating our heads against the wall with this core or we are on to something with this style of play.

 

[CabanaBoy5]

The worse teams got better, and the better teams got worse. That doesn't represent a change in the quality of competition. Getting 103+ points to win the division is not harder than getting 123+, 136+, or 111+ points to win the division.

You're on shaky ground here Dekes. If one accepts that there is more parity in the division and the entire league, and there is some evidence of that, then it is possible that it would be harder to gain as many points, and win the division with less points.

 

[Donnie740]

Expected stats are hot garbage and always have been

Which is why people who rely heavily on them are so laughably misguided in their assessments.

Was Morgan Rielly’s fluttering wrist shot from the blueline a “high danger” shot? No, of course not. Was it an “expected goal”? Definitely not.

But the reality is that it found the back of the net. And that’s all that matters.

Maybe the analytic gimps need a new stat of “unexpected goals” to discredit the winning team.