Brad Treliving is doing a great job.

[Jimmy Firecracker]

League wide, this Leafs team finished 4th overall, the same as they did in 2021-22 and 2022-23. We can hmm and haw and about certain stats but at the end of the day this version of the Leafs performed as well as past iterations compared to their peers.

I don't particularly care if our advanced stats are worse off than previous years. Those numbers never helped us get far anyway. As far as talent is concerned this is the best goaltending and defence this team has had going into the playoffs in the entire Matthews era. That is in large part due to Treliving's work.

I’m not too worried about our goal differential not being as good as previous years or our point total being a bit less. In the Matthews era, Vegas won the cup with a +43 GD, St. Louis won with a +24, Washington a +20, and Pittsburgh a +48. This years Leafs are right around those numbers with a +37. Last year Florida won the division with 52 wins (same as us this season) and two more standings points thanks to getting to OT. Last years Panthers also had only one more regulation win than us at 42 to our 41. 2023 Vegas had even fewer RWs with 38.

Our special teams is what worries me the most. I think the powerplay will be fine despite the cold streak to end the year. The PK I’m more concerned about. Ranking 17th and clicking at 77.9% is no bueno. Fortunately there is recent precedence for a mid-PK team to still win the Cup. Vegas ranked 19th at 77.4% their year, and Colorado ranked 15th at 79.7% when they won.

No this team doesn’t control play the way it once did. Does it matter all that much? When the most we’ve gotten when we did was one series win? And even then I think our possession numbers slipped quite a bit after the 2023 trade deadline leading up to the playoffs.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Now do the stats since the 4 Nations Tournament or after we picked up a solid 3-4 dman in Carlo that has improved Rielly's game. You know that period of time that we should be building up into a team that is ready for playoff success. New coach, obviously it was going to take time to implement and get the team to play his system consistently. Matthews finally looking like a player ready to show why he's on pace to be the greatest scorer in the game. Knies has turned into a beast.

Here are some stats I think are relevant:

Since the First Nations Tournament:

--> 27 games... 19-8...2.78 GAA
--> last 10 games...9-1...1.50 GAA

In those 10 games we've played Panthers 2x, Lightening, Kings, Carolina...quality opposition. Also, teams that were on the playoff bubble Montreal and Columbus.

It's all about winning the games, playing a solid defensive structure, boxing out players in front of the net, winning board battles, in game adjustments the coach makes, sacrificing your body, and of course great goaltending. This team is as ready as they have ever been in the past 9 years with the right ingredients for success.

Great points! I would add that I never understood why didn't play like we do this year in other years during the reg season because of the simple fact that we have gamebreakers that can make a difference in tight games. I thought that playing a system that is basically alien to them for 70 games a season and trying to turn the screws tight with 10 games left was the problem. They have been happy to play in low event tight games and have learned IMO how to win those games without freaking out and making a mistake at a critical time a la Dermott or Galchenyuk. If these guys still manage to screw up this years playoffs then I can't really see any hope for them with the salary structure being what it is.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Now do the stats since the 4 Nations Tournament or after we picked up a solid 3-4 dman in Carlo that has improved Rielly's game. You know that period of time that we should be building up into a team that is ready for playoff success. New coach, obviously it was going to take time to implement and get the team to play his system consistently.

The "it takes time" thing is a poor excuse. We were pretty much instantly better under Keefe, and he didnt get the training camp and pre-season that Berube got.

I can't do by specific dates on that site, but looking at NaturalStatTrick, we've actually gotten worse defensively as time went on. Our xGA/60 goes from 3.18 on the year, to 3.27 since 4 nations, to 3.36 over the past 10. I actually wasn't expecting that... That's concerning...

A lot of people mistake good goaltending for good defensive play, because we have a tendency to overvalue the shots that go in and undervalue the shots that don't.

Knies has turned into a beast.

I agree, and I hope he shows up big this year.

Here are some stats I think are relevant:
Since the First Nations Tournament:
--> 27 games... 19-8...2.78 GAA
--> last 10 games...9-1...1.50 GAA

Sure, it's relevant, and I'm glad we're going into the playoffs on a high, but you seem to be attributing it to the wrong thing. That's goaltending. Over the past 10 games, our goalies have put up a 0.953 SV% and a +17.32 goals saved above expected. That means almost half of our goalie impact this season came in the past 10 games.

It's all about winning the games, playing a solid defensive structure, boxing out players in front of the net, winning board battles, in game adjustments the coach makes, sacrificing your body, and of course great goaltending. This team is as ready as they have ever been in the past 9 years with the right ingredients for success.

There's a lot more to winning than what you mentioned, and we're doing pretty badly in some of the things you mentioned. Which is why we didn't actually win more games than most of our recent years. We don't have good defensive structure, or at the very least our PK structure has been horrific. We don't protect the front of the net very well. We allow a lot of rebound shots. We've always been good at board battles and have always sacrificed the body, especially in the playoffs. The in-game adjustments that Berube is making don't seem any better than Keefe.I

We've had more ingredients for success before, though the Atlantic division and Eastern conference has never been this weak, and as Leaf fans, we should all be very aware of how much goaltending can steal a series. We need the hot goaltending to continue, and hope we don't run into it ourselves. With that, anything is possible.

 

[Dreakmur]

Scoring chances are not pretend stats.

They are a subjective stat though, since every single person would count them.

 

[notbias]

They are a subjective stat though, since every single person would count them.

The original argument was chances, just so we are clear, not scoring chances.

Not really... they are pretty much just a shot directed at the net inside of the offensive zone...

Sure they can be missed here or there, but they are as subjective as shots.

Pretty easy stuff.

I guess we can dumb it down for some people and only discuss goals.

 

[Dreakmur]

Not really... they are pretty much just a shot directed at the net inside of the offensive zone...

Sure they can be missed here or there, but they are as subjective as shots.

“pretty much”

What you’re describing is shot attempts, which may or may not be “scoring chances”.

 

[notbias]

“pretty much”

What you’re describing is shot attempts, which may or may not be “scoring chances”.

We were discussing chances, you should read the thread before making assertions.

Even scoring chances are not that subjective, they are just chances from specific areas of the ice...

 

[DarkKnight]

I’m just not into undermining our first 2 seed of this run. Stats are fun, there’s one for every position, so if you’re determined to make it look like Dubas was smarter than Tre, have at it…. I mean it’s been two years of transparent attempts, why stop now lol.

I argued not to get rid of Dubas just prior to his narcissistic press conference, so it isn’t just knee jerk bias when I argue Tre has done a good job since. I’m glad he’s gone now, he had his shot and I believe Tre has finally built a defence (4 of our top 6 are his adds) and somehow found a goalie, which Dubas never did. I like this coach, it’s more playoff hockey style we play, so should be an easier transition now. We still have the same core though, so ultimately your stars have to come through, but again I do have more confidence a guy who’s won a cup behind the bench will be better than Dubas’ guy, who was out coached pretty much every series.

Anyways, back to the inane partisan stat battles, yawn, all I know is Game 1 is in TO against a wild card team.

 

[Dreakmur]

We were discussing chances, you should read the thread before making assertions.

Even scoring chances are not that subjective, they are just chances from specific areas of the ice...

What exactly is a “chance” ?

 

[notbias]

I’m just not into undermining our first 2 seed of this run. Stats are fun, there’s one for every position, so if you’re determined to make it look like Dubas was smarter than Tre, have at it…. I mean it’s been two years of transparent attempts, why stop now lol.

I argued not to get rid of Dubas just prior to his narcissistic press conference, so it isn’t just knee jerk bias when I argue Tre has done a good job since. I’m glad he’s gone now, he had his shot and I believe Tre has finally built a defence (4 of our top 6 are his adds) and somehow found a goalie, which Dubas never did. I like this coach, it’s more playoff hockey style we play, so should be an easier transition now. We still have the same core though, so ultimately your stars have to come through, but again I do have more confidence a guy who’s won a cup behind the bench will be better than Dubas’ guy, who was out coached pretty much every series.

Anyways, back to the inane partisan stat battles, yawn, all I know is Game 1 is in TO against a wild card team.

A lot of feelings and no facts, typical of this poster.

 

[DarkKnight]

I mean even Jonas Siegel has finally admitted this is the best Leafs team he's seen.

It's Conference Final or bust though.

 

[Menzinger]

The D core and goaltending look fantastic. One of the stronger if not strongest groups of the rebuild

There's unfortunately a decent amount of wasted cap among the depth forwards that probably could have been better spent.

I'm feeling good about the team, but We find out in a few days if that optimism was justified or just homer-blinded

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I made this thread August 9th 2023 and I certainly didn't expect 291 pages and nearly 7300 responses.

I gave him a pass last year, I think most of us did because he didn't come in until 5 weeks before the draft, there wasn't really a opportunity to truly put his stamp on the team.

While a significant portion of this roster is still Dubas.

Treliving has his coaching staff.

At least half the defense is his.

Hall the goaltending tandem is his.

Now we will see if I was right.

This is the year we can start to truly judge him.

So far so good, 52 wins this year, 1st in the Atlantic,I actually think I predicted 52 wins in a thread I made before the season started.

Regardless Now they need to get by Ottawa

 

[Legion34]

I made this thread August 9th 2023 and I certainly didn't expect 291 pages and nearly 7300 responses.

I gave him a pass last year, I think most of us did because he didn't come in until 5 weeks before the draft, there wasn't really a opportunity to truly put his stamp on the team.

While a significant portion of this roster is still Dubas.

Treliving has his coaching staff.

At least half the defense is his.

Hall the goaltending tandem is his.

Now we will see if I was right.

This is the year we can start to truly judge him.

So far so good, 52 wins this year, 1st in the Atlantic,I actually think I predicted 52 wins in a thread I made before the season started.

Regardless Now they need to get by Ottawa

Just to be clear. What portion of the roster is dubas? He was gm in 2018.

So Tavares. Knies. McCabe.
Didn’t Tre sign Mcmann as a fa

 

[Evilhomer]

The "it takes time" thing is a poor excuse. We were pretty much instantly better under Keefe, and he didnt get the training camp and pre-season that Berube got.

I can't do by specific dates on that site, but looking at NaturalStatTrick, we've actually gotten worse defensively as time went on. Our xGA/60 goes from 3.18 on the year, to 3.27 since 4 nations, to 3.36 over the past 10. I actually wasn't expecting that... That's concerning...

A lot of people mistake good goaltending for good defensive play, because we have a tendency to overvalue the shots that go in and undervalue the shots that don't.

I agree, and I hope he shows up big this year.

Sure, it's relevant, and I'm glad we're going into the playoffs on a high, but you seem to be attributing it to the wrong thing. That's goaltending. Over the past 10 games, our goalies have put up a 0.953 SV% and a +17.32 goals saved above expected. That means almost half of our goalie impact this season came in the past 10 games.

There's a lot more to winning than what you mentioned, and we're doing pretty badly in some of the things you mentioned. Which is why we didn't actually win more games than most of our recent years. We don't have good defensive structure, or at the very least our PK structure has been horrific. We don't protect the front of the net very well. We allow a lot of rebound shots. We've always been good at board battles and have always sacrificed the body, especially in the playoffs. The in-game adjustments that Berube is making don't seem any better than Keefe.I

We've had more ingredients for success before, though the Atlantic division and Eastern conference has never been this weak, and as Leaf fans, we should all be very aware of how much goaltending can steal a series. We need the hot goaltending to continue, and hope we don't run into it ourselves. With that, anything is possible.

The challenge with stats is that they can't capture context. The reality is that the Leafs have greatly benefited by how weak the Eastern conference has become. There is nothing wrong with that. It's the way cycles work. It's going to be the primary reason the Leafs end up in the Cup final this season. They have rightly kept their core players for long enough, and have added some critical surrounding pieces, including their starting goalie, that they have become the most talented group in the conference.

 

[CabanaBoy5]

The "it takes time" thing is a poor excuse. We were pretty much instantly better under Keefe, and he didnt get the training camp and pre-season that Berube got.

I can't do by specific dates on that site, but looking at NaturalStatTrick, we've actually gotten worse defensively as time went on. Our xGA/60 goes from 3.18 on the year, to 3.27 since 4 nations, to 3.36 over the past 10. I actually wasn't expecting that... That's concerning...

A lot of people mistake good goaltending for good defensive play, because we have a tendency to overvalue the shots that go in and undervalue the shots that don't.

I agree, and I hope he shows up big this year.

Sure, it's relevant, and I'm glad we're going into the playoffs on a high, but you seem to be attributing it to the wrong thing. That's goaltending. Over the past 10 games, our goalies have put up a 0.953 SV% and a +17.32 goals saved above expected. That means almost half of our goalie impact this season came in the past 10 games.

There's a lot more to winning than what you mentioned, and we're doing pretty badly in some of the things you mentioned. Which is why we didn't actually win more games than most of our recent years. We don't have good defensive structure, or at the very least our PK structure has been horrific. We don't protect the front of the net very well. We allow a lot of rebound shots. We've always been good at board battles and have always sacrificed the body, especially in the playoffs. The in-game adjustments that Berube is making don't seem any better than Keefe.I

We've had more ingredients for success before, though the Atlantic division and Eastern conference has never been this weak, and as Leaf fans, we should all be very aware of how much goaltending can steal a series. We need the hot goaltending to continue, and hope we don't run into it ourselves. With that, anything is possible.

It does take time to learn and buy into a system that involves playing better defensively. After that period of adjustment, that's exactly what we’ve been doing since the Four Nations and particularly the last 10 games.

If the advanced metrics are telling you that the Leafs are not better defensively or playing with more structure conducive to success in the playoffs, then those stats should be taken with a grain of salt. Virtually all the former players, coaches, managers (people who know the game from the inside) that I've listened to these past few days, say the Leafs are playing a brand of hockey that can lead to more success in the playoffs. Yet, you continue to spew stats that show the contrary, like that is some kind of determining, all-encompassing factor in the success of a team.

To say it’s only the goaltending is disingenuous to the rest of the team. Ask our goaltenders if the defensive play hasn’t helped them to achieve the success they have had this season. The blocked shots, the clearing the area in front of the net, the clearing of rebounds, the battles along the boards, all are much more noticeable than the past. We've got the best shutdown pairing of the core 4 era in Tanev-McCabe. Or do you have advanced stats that say otherwise?

I guess we'll see if this winner of the Atlantic Division has in fact found the better ingredients to success. More defensive awareness, better coaching, better defence, better goaltending, more compete, and more determination. ALL contributing to our success this season. GLG.

 

[IPS]

If we go deep are these dubasites really gonna keep yearning for the dubas and keefe days ? Are some people really that addicted to being losers ?

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Just to be clear. What portion of the roster is dubas? He was gm in 2018.

So Tavares. Knies. McCabe.
Didn’t Tre sign Mcmann as a fa

Dubas was

Just to be clear. What portion of the roster is dubas? He was gm in 2018.

So Tavares. Knies. McCabe.
Didn’t Tre sign Mcmann as a fa

Nope Mcmann is Dubas.

So is Marner, Lou wasn't hired yet.

He helped bring in Matthews

He brought in Tavares

Jarnkrok
Knies
Kampf
Woll

Almost 75% of the forwards are Dubas in some way either as part of management or as GM.

By my count he's responsible or at least partly responsible for about half the roster.

 

[Dreakmur]

Just to be clear. What portion of the roster is dubas? He was gm in 2018.

So Tavares. Knies. McCabe.
Didn’t Tre sign Mcmann as a fa

If I remember right, Lawrence Gillman first brought McMann into the organization with the Marlies.

On the current roster, Dubas acquired John Tavares, Matthew Knies, Jake McCabe, Calle Jarnkrok, David Kampf, Nick Robertson, and Pontus Holmberg.

Treliving also extended Kampf and McCabe past their UFA time.

 

[Dreakmur]

Dubas was


Nope Mcmann is Dubas.

So is Marner, Lou wasn't hired yet.

He helped bring in Matthews

He brought in Tavares

Jarnkrok
Knies
Kampf
Woll

Almost 75% of the forwards are Dubas in some way either as part of management or as GM.

By my count he's responsible or at least partly responsible for about half the roster.

Marner was drafted in the draft Mark Hunter ran.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

If I remember right, Lawrence Gillman first brought McMann into the organization with the Marlies.

On the current roster, Dubas acquired John Tavares, Matthew Knies, Jake McCabe, Calle Jarnkrok, David Kampf, Nick Robertson, and Pontus Holmberg.

Treliving also extended Kampf and McCabe past their UFA time.

And Woll, and Marner, Lou wasn't GM until after Marner was drafted

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Marner was drafted in the draft Mark Hunter ran.

If I remember right they ran that together

 

[Dreakmur]

And Woll, and Marner, Lou wasn't GM until after Marner was drafted

Hunter ran the Marner draft, and Lou ran the Matthews / Woll draft.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Hunter ran the Marner draft, and Lou ran the Matthews / Woll draft.

I seem to remember them running the Marner draft as co GM, but then again it was nearly a decade ago

 

[Dreakmur]

I seem to remember them running the Marner draft as co GM, but then again it was nearly a decade ago

They were both assistant GMs, but Dubas’ duties were primarily as the Marlies GM.

Hunter was known as the scouting guru at that point. I guess people didn’t realize London doesn’t just have an eye for talent… they have some other advantages