Proposal: BOS - PIT

[Flying Dego]

Ya I just disagree that's who he is. He offers zero transition value and his dzone coverage is at best slightly above average. Would you give up a first for Derek Forbort? They are extremely similar players at this stage. I'd like to fire Forbort into the sun, so you have my answer.

All good my man, won't have a way to see the value as he won't be traded.

Also in McGregor fashion for Forbort..."who the f*** is that guy." There lies a huge difference in value between these two players.

 

[burstnbloom]

This just reminds me of how dumb the main boards are.

Ya, I'm just stupid. It's not that his numbers show a pronounced decline on all the public data models as he approached 30, and that his skill set is one that 1)ages poorly traditionally and 2) costs less and less on the market every year. I'm just really dumb. Sorry I didn't speak glowingly about your favorite wubby.

 

[burstnbloom]

All good my man, won't have a way to see the value as he won't be traded.

Also in McGregor fashion for Forbort..."who the f*** is that guy." There lies a huge difference in value between these two players.

Ya, I mean, I kind of agree. The only difference in their value is name recognition. Hence why I am way out on this trade idea despite not giving a shit about losing Frederic and happily losing Moore's cap hit.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Ya, I mean, I kind of agree. The only difference in their value is name recognition. Hence why I am way out on this trade idea despite not giving a shit about losing Frederic and happily losing Moore's cap hit.

That makes a lot of sense.

The genesis of the idea is that a lot of Pens fans think Dumo's name/reputation outstrips his actual game right now. "If you are trying to win now, why ya trading him?" I don't begrudge you for calling BS.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Moore likely would be LITR'd. Dumo for Frederic and a 1st would be the deal and would've give us some cap space to balance out the RD side and an asset that may allow us to move our 1st this year IMO.

While I'm not against moving on from Dumoulin at some point, I'm not sure how this trade makes the Pens better for this season. I also don't think Frederic is the type of piece I'd want in return for Dumoulin. We've got enough bottom six forwards as it is.

 

[37Bergenov14]

Zero interest as a Bs fan. Don't think bringing on another defensive Dman into our top 4 solves a need (for all that could be discussed about him, that's the intended role for carlo),let alone doing it by losing a first (more and more important for the inevitable rebuild coming soon) arguably just to facilitate for an unnecessary cap dump in moore. Frédéric has some value but not much past a depth piece, so is just a ridealong in all this. If the Bs bring in a top 4 via trade I'd rather it be a more offensive two way guy (recognizing far more/better assets would be needed from the Bs side in such a trade)

 

[Dr Danglefest]

Bruins shouldn’t be trading any of their 1sts given Bergerons status which would leave us without a top 6 Center

 

[Clint Eastwood]

Uh, this seems.....pretty awful for Pittsburgh.

Dumoulin is a #2 DFD with 2 cup rings. Why is he being traded for 2 okay depth pieces and a late 1st? Hell, I don't even know if Moore is an "okay depth piece".

Swap Moore out with someone like Zboril and it seems less problematic, but I'm still pretty underwhelmed there.

He's not. He sucks

 

[3074326]

I'm not dealing a 1st for Dumoulin, especially with only 1 year left after this one on his deal.

Pens aren't in a spot to be dealing away contributors and Bruins arent in a spot to be dealing 1st round picks for defensemen on the wrong side of 30

Strange. I don't want to trade him because he has one year left after this one. Having a top 2 D for two playoff runs is worth a first.

 

[CDJ]

Strange. I don't want to trade him because he has one year left after this one. Having a top 2 D for two playoff runs is worth a first.

Totally is, that’s why they should go get one instead of Dumoulin

More of a middle pairing guy these days IMO. Still good and useful, just not somebody Pitt should trade or Boston should move a first for

 

[Empoleon8771]

Ya, I'm just stupid. It's not that his numbers show a pronounced decline on all the public data models as he approached 30, and that his skill set is one that 1)ages poorly traditionally and 2) costs less and less on the market every year. I'm just really dumb. Sorry I didn't speak glowingly about your favorite wubby.

Then if these numbers exist, actually show your work. Because the claim seems like horseshit with you providing no support.

 

[Tender Rip]

No contending team (quite sure Pens believe themselves to be in that category) deals a first pairing D-man at the deadline. Even if (but especially unless) they have a clear in-house replacement or are getting an upgrade for the position back. We don’t and in this case wouldn’t.

I’d be interested in dealing Dumo if either of those conditions applied.

 

[burstnbloom]

Then if these numbers exist, actually show your work. Because the claim seems like horseshit with you providing no support.

Your tone is just f***ing awful. How have you made it 60k posts on this website? Crazy. You know what I'll do, I'll show the work of all the people who get paid to show their work. Despite the overwhelming evidence of my position, I'm sure you'll respond with something like "eye test" and "good stick" and "stats undervalue defensive d" but really its just that your favorite player is declining and isn't that good anymore. Sorry, love.

EH - decline

Jfresh - decline

Dom - Decline

 

[Empoleon8771]

Your tone is just f***ing awful. How have you made it 60k posts on this website? Crazy. You know what I'll do, I'll show the work of all the people who get paid to show their work. Despite the overwhelming evidence of my position, I'm sure you'll respond with something like "eye test" and "good stick" and "stats undervalue defensive d" but really its just that your favorite player is declining and isn't that good anymore. Sorry, love.

EH - decline

View attachment 511586

Jfresh - decline

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Dom - Decline

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So his "decline" is 1 mediocre year this year. Gotcha.

Yeah, you probably won't find many Penguins fans who disagree that Dumoulin's year this year has been kinda mediocre. But that doesn't mean he has been "declining for years" and he "isn't all that good".

Let's look at the JFresh chart. It shows that Dumoulin was at about a 75% WAR% last year, and is at a 40% WAR% this year. How is that a "decline" rather than "1 mediocre season"? And if you look into the numbers more, those mediocre results come exclusively from his offensive value, his defensive value this year is higher than it was last year or the year before.

 

[Le Magnifique 66]

Depending on what happens in the off season with our UFA's, I don't see the Pens making any moves to trade away players at this deadline with how the team has been playing. If there are any big changes, it will be in the off season

 

[burstnbloom]

So his "decline" is 1 mediocre year this year. Gotcha.

Yeah, you probably won't find many Penguins fans who disagree that Dumoulin's year this year has been kinda mediocre. But that doesn't mean he has been "declining for years" and he "isn't all that good".

lol all three of those models show steep 3 year declines and his value to be near replacement level. I'm sorry, Mrs Dumolin, your little guy is not a good player.

 

[Empoleon8771]

lol all three of those models show steep 3 year declines and his value to be near replacement level. I'm sorry, Mrs Dumolin, your little guy is not a good player.

Are you looking at a different JFresh model or something? Because the JFresh model absolutely does not show that.

You should also pay attention to "games played" in Dom's model as well.

 

[Empoleon8771]

What's hilarious about all of those charts is that it doesn't even show that Dumoulin "isn't even that good" to begin with. The JFresh chart shows that Dumoulin's defensive metrics this year are better than they were last year, his overall WAR% just dropped because his offensive impact dropped. But at the same point, zero people care about what offensive impact Brian Dumoulin is having becuase he's Brian Dumoulin. It's the same thing with Dom's chart, Dom's chart projects Dumoulin to be bordering between a "high middle" and "top" player with an overall player score of around 70. How is that "replacement level"?

What the SPAR charts show is that Dumoulin today is just as good as he was from 2015-2019. What's more likely, Dumoulin just had 1 unsustainable analytical season in 2019-2020 due to only playing in 28 games or that Dumoulin is somehow "declining" now?

 

[burstnbloom]

Are you looking at a different JFresh model or something? Because the JFresh model absolutely does not show that.

You should also pay attention to "games played" in Dom's model as well.

Tell me you don't know how to read a player card without telling me. His deployment has stayed static, his offense has cratered, his defensive impact is not making up the difference. I'm going to be done talking about Brian Dumolin now, but happy to help you understand my "dumb" position.

19/20

20/21

21/22

 

[Gurglesons]

Tell me you don't know how to read a player card without telling me. His deployment has stayed static, his offense has cratered, his defensive impact is not making up the difference. I'm going to be done talking about Brian Dumolin now, but happy to help you understand my "dumb" position.

19/20

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20/21

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21/22
View attachment 511596

The red line capturing defense shows that Dumoulin’s defensive game has improved in the charts you provided.

I assume whoever is trading for Dumoulin is not trading him for his offensive impacts.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Tell me you don't know how to read a player card without telling me. His deployment has stayed static, his offense has cratered, his defensive impact is not making up the difference. I'm going to be done talking about Brian Dumolin now, but happy to help you understand my "dumb" position.

19/20

View attachment 511595

20/21

View attachment 511597

21/22
View attachment 511596

So basically, Dumoulin is still a top player defensively, and his arbitrary "WAR%" stat is getting worse because his offensive game is getting worse....when there are approximately 0 teams who would acquire Dumoulin due to his offensive game.

Yep, you're right, he sucks. Dom's chart says he's bordering between a "high middle" and "top" player and JFresh's chart still says he's still a significantly above average defensive player, but yeah, he sucks or something.