Bobrovsky - HHOF?

[blogofmike]

Could be because I was not burned by him like some do, and I could be wrong but I feel sometime he could be one of the most underrated player ever in some corner ?

startSeason	lastSeason	FullName	GSAATotal	perGameGSAA
20182019	20222023	Andrei Vasilevskiy	79.6	0.37
20172018	20212022	Andrei Vasilevskiy	92.3	0.34
20162017	20202021	Andrei Vasilevskiy	79.6	0.30
20152016	20192020	Ben Bishop	66.9	0.28
20142015	20182019	Devan Dubnyk	64.2	0.20
20132014	20172018	Carey Price	67.2	0.27
20122013	20162017	Carey Price	77.3	0.32
20112012	20152016	Henrik Lundqvist	77.4	0.28
20102011	20142015	Henrik Lundqvist	87.1	0.31
20092010	20132014	Henrik Lundqvist	96.7	0.31
20082009	20122013	Henrik Lundqvist	100.3	0.32
20072008	20112012	Tim Thomas	123.7	0.46
20062007	20102011	Tomas Vokoun	115.1	0.39
20052006	20092010	Tomas Vokoun	135.2	0.46
20032004	20082009	Roberto Luongo	149.0	0.43
20022003	20072008	Roberto Luongo	151.3	0.42
20012002	20062007	Roberto Luongo	147.5	0.43
20002001	20052006	Roberto Luongo	134.8	0.43
19981999	20032004	Dominik Hasek	108.9	0.44
19992000	20032004	Roberto Luongo	102.0	0.38
19971998	20012002	Dominik Hasek	164.6	0.54
19961997	20002001	Dominik Hasek	206.6	0.68
19951996	19992000	Dominik Hasek	220.0	0.74
19941995	19981999	Dominik Hasek	242.8	0.80
19931994	19971998	Dominik Hasek	242.5	0.82
19921993	19961997	Dominik Hasek	195.8	0.77
19911992	19951996	Dominik Hasek	143.5	0.70
19901991	19941995	Curtis Joseph	149.2	0.56
19891990	19931994	Patrick Roy	182.6	0.61
19881989	19921993	Patrick Roy	173.6	0.62
19871988	19911992	Patrick Roy	182.1	0.69
19861987	19901991	Patrick Roy	149.1	0.62
19851986	19891990	Patrick Roy	123.2	0.51
19841985	19881989	Kelly Hrudey	89.3	0.36
19831984	19871988	Kelly Hrudey	93.2	0.49
19821983	19861987	Bob Froese	95.0	0.55
19811982	19851986	Billy Smith	110.9	0.54
19801981	19841985	Billy Smith	125.7	0.61
19791980	19831984	Billy Smith	137.1	0.66
19781979	19821983	Billy Smith	126.3	0.62
19771978	19811982	Tony Esposito	155.5	0.50
19761977	19801981	Tony Esposito	188.0	0.57
19751976	19791980	Tony Esposito	188.1	0.56
19741975	19781979	Ken Dryden	203.8	0.75
19721973	19771978	Ken Dryden	221.3	0.79
19731974	19771978	Tony Esposito	201.0	0.59
19711972	19761977	Ken Dryden	233.4	0.80
19701971	19751976	Ken Dryden	202.4	0.84
0	19741975	Ken Dryden	141.7	0.79
19691970	19731974	Tony Esposito	202.2	0.69
19681969	19731974	Bernie Parent	155.5	0.54
19671968	19711972	Bernie Parent	102.9	0.41
19641965	19711972	Jacques Plante	102.7	0.58
19661967	19701971	Bernie Parent	77.3	0.35
19651966	19691970	Johnny Bower	72.8	0.58
19631964	19671968	Johnny Bower	115.2	0.61
19621963	19661967	Glenn Hall	104.0	0.39
19611962	19651966	Glenn Hall	108.0	0.35
19601961	19641965	Glenn Hall	110.1	0.35
19591960	19631964	Glenn Hall	113.7	0.33
19581959	19621963	Jacques Plante	93.0	0.31
19571958	19611962	Jacques Plante	110.5	0.36
19561957	19601961	Jacques Plante	87.4	0.30
19551956	19591960	Jacques Plante	109.4	0.34
19541955	19581959	Jacques Plante	94.3	0.31
19531954	19571958	Jacques Plante	55.5	0.22
19521953	19571958	Glenn Hall	42.2	0.19

They guy was so dominant when he was on over 1000 games, some Calder vote in 2001 before MySpace was invented and still some last vote for the Vezina, all-star spot in 2018 when Facebook was not cool anymore.

Seem a non brainer HOFer to me.

While he's HHOF-calibre, Luongo's not underrated.

His 90s play might be influencing me a bit too much, but I question any stat that says Kelly Hrudey was the best goalie in the NHL from 1984-89.

So it might be that Roberto Luongo had a big 2004 and when that falls out of the sample, he's not on top anymore.

And if we go by GSAA, keep in mind that up until the 2016 playoffs, Luongo was a negative GSAA player in the postseason, playing behind a defense that made Max Montoya look good and against an Islanders offense that was fairly average.

 

[MadLuke]

Conversation like this are always a bit strange, everyone pointing out how Luongo is not underrated can be used as proof of him being underrated (and the other way around anyone that agree that he is underrated a proof that he is not), 27-31 years old Luongo post lock-out was still arguably on top.

Having Scheinder play playing off game in that point of his career can be seen as a total deal breaker too.

The 2006 to 2008 Canucks are a .899 save percentage teams without Luongo in net that does not wins half there games when he did not start.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Garbage in, garbage out.

What a "lucky" streak for the Al Arbour Isles that they had all the best goalies...

1982: Billy Smith 3rd, Rollie Melanson 6th in GSAA
1983: Rollie Melanson 2nd, Billy Smith 3rd
1984: Rollie Melanson 1st, Billy Smith 2nd
1986: Kelly Hrudey 1st
1988: Kelly Hrudey 3rd

And now, maybe...maybe they're just really good at scouting goalies. That's very possible.

Melanson went from best in the NHL in '82 to '84, but then finished dead last in the category in '88 - in his prime (at age 27). What happened? He went to LA.

Kelly Hrudey top of the charts from '84 to '89 as blogofmike noted...6th worst in '90. What happened? He went to LA.

When you go from a good defensive structure to a bad one and aren't equipped to handle it, even re-packaged save pct. suffers.

 

[Michael Farkas]

This is a perfect example of the challenges offered by evaluating players' careers while they're still playing.

This thread got pretty quiet.

Even with the shutout, he's batting about a 3.00 in the Final, .889. And he's on the verge of authoring the biggest collapse in...history? Right?

So he goes from Cup and Smythe and a "lock", to now being a loss away from being forever barred from the HOF, right?

 

[JackSlater]

This thread got pretty quiet.

Even with the shutout, he's batting about a 3.00 in the Final, .889. And he's on the verge of authoring the biggest collapse in...history? Right?

So he goes from Cup and Smythe and a "lock", to now being a loss away from being forever barred from the HOF, right?

He'll get in regardless regardless. Memories fade and details get fuzzy but stats stay the same. Two Vezinas and he'll retire somewhere in the top ten for wins by a goaltender. Some day there will be a poll, here or elsewhere, about Price vs Bobrovsky and Bobrovsky will win comfortably. The arguments will center around trophies and suggestions of career value, and people who saw neither will be certain that people at the time were wrong or that they generally believed that Bobrovsky was better. The same kind of thing happens with the HHOF.

If Bobrovsky becomes golfing buddies with Lanny McDonald he'll get in even sooner than expected, even if he plays his part in getting the hated Oilers a cup.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

This thread got pretty quiet.

Even with the shutout, he's batting about a 3.00 in the Final, .889. And he's on the verge of authoring the biggest collapse in...history? Right?

So he goes from Cup and Smythe and a "lock", to now being a loss away from being forever barred from the HOF, right?

Correct.

But what if he wins game 7, 6-5?

 

[Michael Farkas]

Perhaps, and I totally get where you're coming from...but maybe it goes the other way (the way that actually happened) - he's one of the worst playoff goalies in history, had a horrendous Final in '23, and then authors the pinnacle of all collapses in '24.

One of his two Vezinas was captured in 37 starts for a team that missed the playoffs. Another instance where a half season is getting full freight.

So, he'll have a Vezina and a half, and will go down as a big net negative in the playoffs. And he'll only have one other top-5 Vezina finish (2024, where his fringe NHL backup led the league in GAA and save pct. on the same team.

This is like Barrasso-ish...? It's not very pretty...


Orrrrrrrrr...he shuts out McDavid in game 7, wins the Cup, wins the Smythe (somehow?), and we skip the HOF waiting period haha

 

[Michael Farkas]

Correct.

But what if he wins game 7, 6-5?

Who knows. I guess the Cup heals all wounds...or something...

It's a shame it's too late to turn to Stolarz. Not because Bob is playing horrendously. He's just not playing overly well and he looks tired.

I would have put Stolarz in to start the 3rd last night so that I have the option to turn to him game 7. I'd probably chicken out and stick with Bobrovsky...but I'd like the option...

 

[Mike C]

Who knows. I guess the Cup heals all wounds...or something...

It's a shame it's too late to turn to Stolarz. Not because Bob is playing horrendously. He's just not playing overly well and he looks tired.

I would have put Stolarz in to start the 3rd last night so that I have the option to turn to him game 7. I'd probably chicken out and stick with Bobrovsky...but I'd like the option...

Fair points.

Aside from the blowout, it's been a total team breakdown in all 3 zones. Bob has been pretty good but needs to be stand on his head good. Skinner has made several timely superb saves

 

[Michael Farkas]

Yeah, I agree...Florida hasn't played a complete game since going up 3-0 (2-0, for that matter). They've been better for half a game or a period here and there in games 3, 5 and 6...

But that's the nature of it. Bobrovsky was getting a lot of praise when the completely overmatched Rangers weren't able to lift a finger in the series. Now, he needs to make a couple big stops...and he doesn't.

There was a very brief moment in time where he crept up to a weak #3 on my Smythe ballot during this playoffs (June 14th). But he was never a serious candidate for it in my eyes.

This thing going to seven games really makes it easy on the voters, McDavid can now take it win or lose and everyone can sleep like a baby...

 

[Mike C]

Yeah, I agree...Florida hasn't played a complete game since going up 3-0 (2-0, for that matter). They've been better for half a game or a period here and there in games 3, 5 and 6...

But that's the nature of it. Bobrovsky was getting a lot of praise when the completely overmatched Rangers weren't able to lift a finger in the series. Now, he needs to make a couple big stops...and he doesn't.

There was a very brief moment in time where he crept up to a weak #3 on my Smythe ballot during this playoffs (June 14th). But he was never a serious candidate for it in my eyes.

This thing going to seven games really makes it easy on the voters, McDavid can now take it win or lose and everyone can sleep like a baby...

I bet Fla at -130 before series. I took McDavid at +600 for Smythe before game 5. If I were smart, I'd just bet Oilers in game 7 and more or less wash the series bet and collect on the Smythe

 

[seventieslord]

Goalies who've gone to 2 or more finals since the lockout.... Osgood, Rask, Fleury, Vasi, Quick, Crawford.... Bob? Is that all or am I missing a couple?

Bob hasn't been great but just by getting his team to two finals he's already done something not many do. And then there's two Vezinas and the Tampa series.

And I'm not a fan or an advocate of seeing him get in the hall. Games 4-7 don't help him, obviously, but they don't negate everything else, either.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Goalies who've gone to 2 or more finals since the lockout.... Osgood, Rask, Fleury, Vasi, Quick, Crawford.... Bob? Is that all or am I missing a couple?

Bob hasn't been great but just by getting his team to two finals he's already done something not many do. And then there's two Vezinas and the Tampa series.

And I'm not a fan or an advocate of seeing him get in the hall. Games 4-7 don't help him, obviously, but they don't negate everything else, either.

Last thing first. Negate what? He's had two playoffs that he couldn't finish off because he crumbled in the Final, before that he was the worst playoff goalie at least since the lockout. And is one of the all time worst in the postseason vs expectations. Games 4 to, possibly, 7 are adding to that much longer resume. That's my whole point. What we're seeing now...this is him. This is how it's always been, except for a few rounds - where he was behind the best team defense goin'...

The good parts of these last two postseasons, those are graphic exceptions in his career. And, again, very interesting that they time up with being on the best defensive team in the league. Granted, the 2023 team is not the same as the 2024 team. But still, 2024 is half of his playoff success for his career, effectively.

Re: Going to 2 Finals. You have high end guys like Quick, Rask, and Vasy there. You have guys that can't be trusted like Fleury and Bob. You have the low points on their respective teams in Osgood and Crawford. It's a pretty random bunch. I wouldn't trust Corey Crawford to get me a glass of water.

So, we have that list, sure. That is what it is. But look at the list of teams that went to multiple Finals in short succession with different goalies...

Boston in 2011 with Thomas, 2013 with Rask.
Chicago in 2010 with Niemi, 2013 with Crawford
Pittsburgh, no matter where you slice it, 2009 and 2016 or 2016 and 2017 with Fleury and Murray.
Vegas in 2018 with Fleury, 2023 with Hill

That's a pretty fair sample too. Which doesn't include 2008 Red Wings that started that run with Hasek or the 2023 Panthers that started their run with Alex Lyon by coach's decisions.

Who was doing that before in such volume? When New Jersey went - it was Brodeur. When Colorado or Montreal went - it was Roy. When Dallas went - it was Belfour. Detroit, fair, that's well documented that virtually anyone could play there if they did it for cheap enough.

Goaltending just doesn't pop anymore. It doesn't matter who you have, unless you have a top 5 guy or a bottom 5 guy. We're staring at a 36 year Sergei Bobrovsky taking on freakin' Adin Hill again, but wearing an Oilers jersey this time. You put Jake Allen in this spot, he's in the Final too. Either team. Nothing special is happening. And I don't mean that Vasy isn't special - he is.

It's not novel anymore, but even if Florida swept Edmonton, when we went to the Playoff All Star Teams thread, Bobrovsky wasn't going to be my first goalie. That's Shestyorkin. I don't know, I'm just rambling at this point...but I guess the take away is: Just because you're on the winning team, doesn't mean you did it. It can...but it's not automatic.

 

[seventieslord]

Yeah, I get all that. But those are the kinds of bullet points they look at, is my point.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

Yeah, I get all that. But those are the kinds of bullet points they look at, is my point.

Fair but none of those are a career negative GSAA

 

[JackSlater]

Fair but none of those are a career negative GSAA

Do you think that the hockey hall of fame committee looks or GSAA or even knows what it is?

They won't remember the details of Bobrovsky in the playoffs, unless Edmonton wins game 7. And even then, the things that always get cited are regular season stats, or regular season team stats like wins. I don't see him getting left out barring some sort of personality that rubs people the wrong way like a few... other prominent goaltenders. He has two more years on his current deal and a NMC - it's not hard to imagine him picking up another 50 regular season wins over the next two years, which puts him right ahead of Sawchuk in 8th and another season away from likely ending up 6th in regular season team wins. It's not that different from Fleury, one just has an extra Vezina and the other gets the good guy boost, and Fleury is definitely getting in even though he shouldn't.

 

[seventieslord]

Fair but none of those are a career negative GSAA

Just to be clear, for anyone reading this, you are referring to the playoffs. His regular season GSAA is well above average and right in the range of goalies we typically consider pretty decent HHOF cases.

I definitely care that he's got a negative career playoff GSAA. It's not good. I don't necessarily want him in the hall. But like Jack said. They don't care about GSAA. If they cared about that, Vernon wouldn't have had a hope in hell.

 

[MXD]

Goalies who've gone to 2 or more finals since the lockout.... Osgood, Rask, Fleury, Vasi, Quick, Crawford.... Bob? Is that all or am I missing a couple?

Ray Emery and Martin Jones, sortof.
Matt Murray, definitely.

 

[Crosby2010]

Ray Emery and Martin Jones, sortof.
Matt Murray, definitely.

Emery didn't play a minute of playoff hockey in the years his team made the final other than 2007 when he was the starter. Jones played 56 minutes of playoff hockey in 2014, and was the starter for the Sharks in 2016. I think it is a little different when the goalie is the starter on these teams. Or even in a case of Andy Moog where he splits things down the middle in the regular season and isn't the starter in the playoffs but is still a world class goalie and gets in a bit of playoff time at least.

Bobrovsky is in a much different position, he's got Two Vezinas (maybe 3 after this year?) and two Cup final appearances with a shot at winning one of them. Also 396 career wins. If Mike Liut had some playoff success and didn't have the stain of the 1981 Canada Cup to his name wouldn't we assume he gets in? To me that's Bobrovsky in a nutshell right now. A better version of Mike Liut. Also finished twice in the top 5 in Hart voting (Liut was top 6 three times). At this point how can he not get in? The only thing is if the Panthers lose and the stigma of the blown 3-0 series lead is so prevalent against Bobrovsky that is overlooks everything.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

man alive, if nothing of note happens for the rest of his career, then one game really was the difference between making and not making the hall

but damn if he didn’t come out and have himself a game tonight