Bob McKenzie's mid-season draft rankings: Schaefer the unanimous #1

[Bjorn Le]

Oh stop, your countrymen pulled the rug out from under Hagens unfairly and installed this unproven guy in coup style fashion.

How can you write a sentence like this and have the cojones to claim that you're not biased?

 

[Andy Dufresne]

And I’d argue you’re out to lunch if you believe those two are slightly above average skaters at the NHL level. Maybe you need to broaden your horizons, and learn more about the players. Bringing up Martone and Frondell is just deflection.

Now who's deflecting? You said:
"Misa and Hagens probably have similar skating to Schaefer, even if I'd give Schaefer a slight edge"
You think I need to learn more about the players? LOL
Schaefer's skating is light years ahead of Hagens. It's not close, it's not similar, it's not a slight anything.
You are way way off.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

How can you write a sentence like this and have the cojones to claim that you're not biased?

What’s my bias? I have rated Canadians first in the last five drafts. Am I biased towards Canadians? I am willing to call it as I see it.

The bias is refusing to accept the obvious because your country benefits from it.

Now who's deflecting? You said:
"Misa and Hagens probably have similar skating to Schaefer, even if I'd give Schaefer a slight edge"
You think I need to learn more about the players? LOL
Schaefer's skating is light years ahead of Hagens. It's not close, it's not similar, it's not a slight anything.
You are way way off.

How many games of each have you watched?

 

[kyle44]

The bias is refusing to accept the obvious because your country benefits from it.

How in the name of Jesus does anyone in Canada benefit if Matthew Schaefer is drafted first overall. You need to take a lap dude. You sound completely unhinged.

 

[wetcoast]

Canadians are already manufacturing McKenna for 26 and Dupont for 27 so tough times ahead....don't look at 2016-2019 drafts though.

Time will tell and hopefully they can do something to impress eh?

Seriously though all this BS about 17 games and glossing over the context of Matt losing 2 extremely important people at his age last year just screams ignorance and poor taste.

Schaefer has impressed in best on best tournaments and is extremely young for the draft.

He just tilts the ice when he is out there and that's what impresses the scouts.

Scouts have a right to be impressed by him and even though I have him first on my list, either one of Hagens or Misa could go first with Porter slipping a bit from earlier showings.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

How in the name of Jesus does anyone in Canada benefit if Matthew Schaefer is drafted first overall.

Because it allows your country to claim hockey superiority, while Canada’s hockey superiority declines. We’ve seen Canada grip on the men’s division disintegrate to the point where it doesn’t exist anymore. They probably are not the favorite at best on best tournaments right now. Their share of NHL’ers continues to decline yearly. Their World Junior team just had two of their worst results in back to back years that we’ve seen from Canada in recent memory. Losing to Latvia?

And somehow Bob McKenzie is announcing an unproven guy with 17 games has become the undisputed 1OA. He is quoting NHL head scouts saying there is literally nothing anyone could do about it. He’s announcing 20 Canadians to the first round and 22 CHL’ers.

None of it is logical, but it doesn’t have to be because the outcome is fixed. Unless there’s a brave team that is willing to buck the trend like Montreal in 2022, it’ll be the same as all years where Canada claims the first pick, even years when they don’t have the best player. And it’ll be like this for the majority of the other first round slots.

You need to take a lap dude. You sound completely unhinged.

I think what’s unhinged is how your country couldn’t accept you don’t have the best player in the draft and instead while controlling all the institutions ended up undertaking what is essentially a coup.

If I’m the only one brave enough to call it out, so be it. I don’t come here for HF cred.

Seriously though all this BS about 17 games and glossing over the context of Matt losing 2 extremely important people at his age last year just screams ignorance and poor taste.

Oh please, the poor taste is trying to connect the tragedy he’s experienced with hockey.

They are meant to be left separate. We don’t have complete info on what everyone experiences.

Trying to make this guy into a charity case for that reason and insinuating people are monsters (what you’re doing) because they’ll dare question his hockey is a pretty dirty tactic.

 

[Golden_Jet]

How in the name of Jesus does anyone in Canada benefit if Matthew Schaefer is drafted first overall. You need to take a lap dude. You sound completely unhinged.

It doesn’t lol, a biased conspiracy theorist homer thinks that, no one else.

 

[4thline]

Some premium level boxscore scouting- every top 5 drafted forward that played a freshman season in the NCAA, whether that season was U18 or U19, whether it was their draft or draft+1, going back to 2015.

Celebrini- U18/Draft- 64 in 38
Fantilli - U19 / Draft- 65 36
Smith - U19 / D+1- 71 in 41
Cooley -U19 /D+1- 60 in 39
Gauthier - U19/D+1- 37 in 32
Beniers - U19/Draft - 24 in 24
Johnson - U19/Draft - 27 in 26
Turcotte - U19/D+1 - 26 in 29
Tkachuk - U19/ Draft - 31 in 40
Eichel - U19/Draft - 71 in 40


I don't think you can blame scouts for looking elsewhere for a top dog for this draft. Tkachuk/Gauthier/Beniers are simply a different and special type of player. looking at the rest of the field- if you're drafting a guy at the top for his offense you expect to see a certain level statistical dominance that isn't there for Hagens.

There's an argument to be made that his WJC is the only thing keeping him from falling

 

[Rare Jewel]

Oh stop, your countrymen pulled the rug out from under Hagens unfairly and installed this unproven guy in coup style fashion.

There was never much separation either. No one thought Hagens was miles beyond the competition. He was always just doing a little more than everyone else, and that was enough, as he has this season. I’m not going to allow Canadians to whitewash history about this and trash a player they’ve defrauded.

You may not remember or weren’t following at the time, but Wright’s play was very lethargic and underwhelming. He missed the World Junior team that he was widely expected to make. He went into his draft season with a huge lead for 1OA. The fact he was an anointed Canadian ES guy bought him time.

Comparing their PPG is ridiculous. First of all, there’s no proper conversion rate to apply. Second of all, Wright didn’t even lead his OHL team in scoring. This was a team that didn’t have any other real NHL prospects (except the goaltender Merilainen). Some guy named Lucas Edmonds outscored him by 19 points. Edmonds is in his third AHL season and has 5 points. Two others named Jordan Frasca and Martin Chromiak (who?) weren’t far behind him in scoring. Third of all, you’re missing all the context. Wright’s PPG wasn’t even too bad. It wasn’t what was expected (as I just mentioned), but not the biggest complaint. It was his play. It’s literally like the opposite with Hagens. Nobody seriously questions Hagens play. A few partisans who want to install someone new as 1OA have started questioning his raw scoring numbers so far this season (leaving out that his team isn’t high scoring, that he has higher raw totals than the WJC MVP, and how difficult of a schedule his team has played).

And even insinuating that they have a similarity in that they played well in international tournaments but not for their club team is frankly absurd. You must’ve just pulled up EP. I don’t think Wright even one had tournament where he was a top 5 player. That WJC18 where he had high totals he didn’t even play that well. People thought he was overshadowed and carried. He ended up having a broken foot, so the complaints went a little too far, but he wasn’t a top player there. And there isn’t even really another great tournament. His WHC17 was solid, but nothing special. His WJC20 was mediocre. Hagens has numerous international tournament records and won all three before being drafted, so it’s literally no comparison. And the idea Hagens is only an international tournaments merchant is completely unfair. He had the highest PPG in the USHL in his DY-1. He has the fifth most points ever at the NTDP.

Why? Because he had one big season? He’s been no better than Wright this season.

Wright has been good this season. He’s nearly equaling Slafkovsky this year with way less TOI and situations. He hasn’t had anywhere near the free rein of Cooley and Slafkovsky so far in his NHL career, but he’s taken a big step this season.

I mean I could go part by part with a rebuttal but I think if you've still got this idea that it's a conspiracy against Hagens or USA players or that Schaefer fell of a turnip truck outside Stan Bulter's place, then it's kind of pointless.

I never said that Wright comparison was exact, it's just example of even the most hyped player may not actually go first, but like your opinion on Wright 's U-18, I don't think really Hagens asserted himself at this past WJC as a sure fire #1 the way Celebrini did last season, nor has he shown that level in the NCAA, because if he had we wouldn't be having this conversation, clearly some scouts agree, and citing tournaments from 2 years ago as a reason to be picked first over Schaefer doesn't really matter either when we're picking guys in June 2025, but oh yeah it's a conspiracy, right...


I should say though, I actually do like Hagens as a player, and would take him on my team any day, and if he has awesome end to the season with BC, I'd be more than willing to consider him for the 1st overall pick. But this tinfoil hat stuff is just a bit much and I would've thought most American fans particular just coming off of WJC gold wouldn't be so sensitive to something like this.

 

[Mathieukferland]

Their World Junior team just had two of their worst results in back to back years that we’ve seen from Canada in recent memory. Losing to Latvia?

Surely you know that tournaments that were mainly for 04s and 05s have no impact on how late 06s and 07s are going to be drafted?

Those two age groups are particularly strong in the CHL, both of them beat the NTDP at the WHC in PEI and they dominated in the CHL/NTDP top prospects game. As closely as you follow prospects this shouldn’t be some surprise to you.


I can respect anyone with any view of who will go first, but to think it’s super reactionary and that Schafer has no resume for someone that follows prospects as closely as you do is a bit odd.


People that watched the WHC17 when he played were all scratching their heads as to how dominant he was at that level without producing in Erie. He was, I would say, significantly better than Hensler at the u18, and was probably the second best defenseman in the entire tournament. I bring up Hensler because at the time many mocks had him top 5, even top 3. And his Hlinka performance was otherworldly, I don’t know if he was on the ice for a goal against and he looked in a different league to Boumedienne, Ihs-Wozniak, etc. He was then so clearly the best player in the prospects series, and was the best player on the WJC team through the pre tournament and Finland game before he got hurt.


Then to act like it’s some manufactured conspiracy to get CHL players drafted en masse in the first round is crazy talk. With the expcetion of maybe Sweden it’s a weak year everywhere else for 06s, 07s and 08s, and those are three particularly strong age groups in the CHL (especially out west), and that will be reflected in the draft.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Some premium level boxscore scouting- every top 5 drafted forward that played a freshman season in the NCAA, whether that season was U18 or U19, whether it was their draft or draft+1, going back to 2015.

Celebrini- U18/Draft- 64 in 38
Fantilli - U19 / Draft- 65 36
Smith - U19 / D+1- 71 in 41
Cooley -U19 /D+1- 60 in 39
Gauthier - U19/D+1- 37 in 32
Beniers - U19/Draft - 24 in 24
Johnson - U19/Draft - 27 in 26
Turcotte - U19/D+1 - 26 in 29
Tkachuk - U19/ Draft - 31 in 40
Eichel - U19/Draft - 71 in 40


I don't think you can blame scouts for looking elsewhere for a top dog for this draft. Tkachuk/Gauthier/Beniers are simply a different and special type of player. looking at the rest of the field- if you're drafting a guy at the top for his offense you expect to see a certain level statistical dominance that isn't there for Hagens.

There's an argument to be made that his WJC is the only thing keeping him from falling

What an exceedingly dishonest argument. Throwing in players who were already drafted by that point so you can satisfy some anti-Hagens argument shows you have an axe to grind against him.

Let’s see your comparison for Ryan Leonard and Gabe Perreault for U-20 players. I guess the WJC MVP this year, who has one less point than Hagens, is a bum. Or maybe you’re missing (deliberately leaving out?) all the context.

And the reality is that this one first half stats at BC is the only statistical argument that one can make against Hagens. He blows Schaefer, Misa, Martone out of the water in international tournaments head to head, and also has good year by year club stats.

For the record, you wouldn’t find one fan of American hockey who thinks Beniers or Gauthier (probably even Tkachuk) is better than Hagens. Unfortunately isolating one year on EP doesn’t tell you everything.

 

[Coaches Coroner]

I'm lower on Shcaeffer than most. I think he'll be a great top 4 D, I guess I'm more iffy on his high end, elite offensive skills fully translating into him being a sure fire top 2 or 1D. I'd probably take a Hagens if I had 1OA and hope a guy like Cam Reid pans out with a late first/early 2nd pick.

 

[wetcoast]

Because it allows your country to claim hockey superiority, while Canada’s hockey superiority declines. We’ve seen Canada grip on the men’s division disintegrate to the point where it doesn’t exist anymore. They probably are not the favorite at best on best tournaments right now. Their share of NHL’ers continues to decline yearly. Their World Junior team just had two of their worst results in back to back years that we’ve seen from Canada in recent memory. Losing to Latvia?

Exactly what does a short tournament of older guys mean towards the 2025 NHL draft?

Absolutely nothing.

Oh please, the poor taste is trying to connect the tragedy he’s experienced with hockey.

They are meant to be left separate. We don’t have complete info on what everyone experiences.

Trying to make this guy into a charity case for that reason and insinuating people are monsters (what you’re doing) because they’ll dare question his hockey is a pretty dirty tactic.

I'm sorry man but you are the one harping on his season last year and those losses along with the coach and his style absolutely provide context as do the best on best tournaments.

Even if we are to believe your "OHL" isn't that good anymore why exactly is a draft eligible Dman tilting the ice far more than any other Dman in the league which includes absolute top 4 NHL defenders?

Like I have said upthread your knowledge and posting history is extremely good but you seem to be off the rails here with this player and it's really a puzzle as to why.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I'm sorry man but you are the one harping on his season last year and those losses along with the coach and his style absolutely provide context as do the best on best tournaments.

Even if we are to believe your "OHL" isn't that good anymore why exactly is a draft eligible Dman tilting the ice far more than any other Dman in the league which includes absolute top 4 NHL defenders?

Like I have said upthread your knowledge and posting history is extremely good but you seem to be off the rails here with this player and it's really a puzzle as to why.

Are you kidding me?

You are actually suggesting that to analyze last season we can either forget one of his only two junior seasons or we can chalk it up to he wasn’t mentally fit to play.

Essentially, he can’t lose in this analysis of this season. He played a mediocre season comparatively for a unanimous 1OA, but it’s not anything that can reflect poorly on his hockey.

How about the possibility that he just didn’t play well comparatively to a unanimous 1OA and it wasn’t because of any tragedy? Maybe 17 games isn’t a big sample of games, and 56 will give you a much more full picture of what you’re dealing with. Or is that crazy talk?

 

[wetcoast]

Are you kidding me?

You are actually suggesting that to analyze last season we can either forget one of his only two junior seasons or we can chalk it up to he wasn’t mentally fit to play.

Essentially, he can’t lose in this analysis of this season. He played a mediocre season comparatively for a unanimous 1OA, but it’s not anything that can reflect poorly on his hockey.

How about the possibility that he just didn’t play well comparatively to a unanimous 1OA and it wasn’t because of any tragedy? Maybe 17 games isn’t a big sample of games, and 56 will give you a much more full picture of what you’re dealing with. Or is that crazy talk?

I dunno at this point you are putting way too much stock in last season and completing sound tone deaf about the circumstances and if his play since then, ie at tournaments and in the OHL isn't enough for you then so be it.

But this conspiracy talk is just nonsensical and is really just a bad look and you really need to stop talking about last season as obviously no one cares as in those scouts.

You know enough to know that scouts are projecting on draft day and if you want to disagree fine but your 2 main reasons just don't square with your deserved reputation on these boards and are frankly disappointing.

 

[4thline]

What an exceedingly dishonest argument. Throwing in players who were already drafted by that point so you can satisfy some anti-Hagens argument shows you have an axe to grind against him.

I can assure you I couldn't care less about where James Hagens goes in the draft. You're tilting at windmills.

All I'm saying is that he is inarguably having a disappointing NCAA season statistically for a guy in contention for 1OA.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Is this draft class this bad? They have Hagens who they project as a 2nd line center as 2nd overall. Seems weird to not have any prospects that are likely to be top line centers in the draft.

 

[Kingpin794]

I look forward to Jon Bois covering this thread as a sequel to this banger

 

[Briser la glace]

Imagine trying to explain to an alien that adult humans spend countless hours arguing and disrespecting each other over which 17-year-old kid will be the best at sliding a small rubber cylinder across ice with a stick, and debating which of these kids big companies should hire first.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I can assure you I couldn't care less about where James Hagens goes in the draft. You're tilting at windmills.

All I'm saying is that he is inarguably having a disappointing NCAA season statistically for a guy in contention for 1OA.

“Inarguably” says the person who claims they couldn’t care less.

This is like a media source claiming they are neutral arbitrators when they write a headline that shows where they stand.

Hagens has the 6th highest PPG in the NCAA for a draft-eligible since 2000. I don’t know how that’s “inarguably disappointing.” Schaefer has the third highest for OHL defensemen in that stretch. Two players who went 9th and 10th overall are ahead of him.

Believe it or not, there’s no such thing as a universal metric players have to hit comparing all drafts. It’s not like if nobody hits some metric then there isn’t a 1OA. They are compared to their competition. Nothing more.

And believe it or not, context matters, unless you think Adam Fantilli is also better than Eichel and Celebrini because he played for an all star team in his draft year where he got to clean up against D2 level competition a few times.

I don’t think being ahead of the WJC MVP in scoring is inarguably disappointing, but maybe you do.

This isn’t even to mention that there are obviously things that matter besides scoring totals in one isolated sample.

 

[57special]

Top players aside, does anyone disagree that this draft has poor depth?

 

[4thline]

“Inarguably” says the person who claims they couldn’t care less.

Are you ESL? Those two things are in no way linked. Do you have a comprehensive list of adjectives that one can't use unemotionally?

Hagens has the 6th highest PPG in the NCAA for a draft-eligible since 2000. I don’t know how that’s “inarguably disappointing.”

And on track to be the 28th highest U19 NCAA PPG over that same stretch. He's not having a Celebrini/Eichel level draft year. If he was you might have some grounds for the outrage, but he's not.

 

[Dack]

This is a fascinating saga.

 

[wetcoast]

Top players aside, does anyone disagree that this draft has poor depth?

Depends on what you mean by top players but aside from say top 5 it's obviously not as strong as last year but sometimes we never really find these things out as some draft surprise and others disappoint.