Bob McKenzie's mid-season draft rankings: Schaefer the unanimous #1

[wetcoast]

Because the system is crooked. And I think it’s worth pointing it out so that it can be corrected.

It should not be so that Canadians perform worse and worse in the hockey and better and and better in the first round. That doesn’t compute.

How is the system crooked these scouts work for professional teams not National ones, they don't care where any player is from.

Schaefer has literally titled the ice in the OHL this year and had a dominant, albeit short, performance at the WJHC, scouts can see how one of the youngest guys in this draft already being this good and project him.

For some reason you have had a thing about him for quite a while and I just don't get it because you seem rational and very knowledgeable.

 

[WarriorofTime]

This temper tantrum because scouts ranked Schaefer first is bizarre. Go find their email address and yell at them, dude.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I think Hagens not being #1 doesn't have much to do with his WJC performance, which was solid but unspectacular. That tournament matters much more to HF and online scouts than actual NHL scouts.

25 points in 21 games is also very solid for a kid in his 18YR old development year, but not the elite level production you want from a #1 overall pick.

You are simply misinformed. You have none of the context. Or if you do have the context, you are deliberately leaving it out for nefarious reasons.

Hagens is ahead of the freaking WJC MVP (who Canadians are claiming he's a third wheel to) in PPG. BC has played the second hardest schedule ever in the first half of the NCAA season. Gabe Perreault, who put up the same totals as Smith and Celebrini last year, has 28 points in 21 games, only 3 more.

The NCAA isn't junior league pond hockey. BC is a good team, but sorry, they don't score 5 goals a game. There's really nothing wrong with Hagens stats, if you understand them.

It's early in the season for both Schaefer and Hagens. Maybe Hagens lights it up down the stretch and the narrative changes, or Schaefer regresses and doesn't look like his offensive upside is high-end, but as of now there's no proof a pro-Canadian conspiracy is behind Schaefer being ranked ahead considering his tools and production have both been superior to Hagens thus far.

That's all well and grand that you claim to have an open mind.

Bob McKenzie has announced that NHL scouts don't have an open mind. He's told us that it's fixed at this point that Schaefer will be going first. Given how nothing really backs this grand switcheroo he's announced and how it's been very sudden and quick, I'm not going to believe that this will be a fair contest.

Schaefer will be ranked first by the NHL draft community. If someone other than him goes first, it'll be because there's a brave team thats willing to go against the idea that a Canadian needs to be selected first, as we saw in 2022 with Montreal.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I would argue that his rookie season isn't as disappointing as it appears, and is almost impressive, when you look at what he went through on a personal level. 16 years old, moves to a new country while his mom his fighting breast cancer. Then only 4 months into his rookie year his billet mom does. Then another couple months later his mom takes a turn for the worse and passes away.

The fact he went through that and still put up a decent season is impressive as hell

Look, people feel bad for the kid for experiencing all of that, but you don't get to use that to make a mediocre season (especially for a player discussed as the new unanimous 1OA) not mediocre.

Maybe that's the exact reason why he didn't play anywhere near the level of a 1OA, but ultimately not seeing that season from him means there's risk attached. Teams should (because apparently McKenzie has announced they don't) be questioning if that means he's closer to the player we saw last season than the one we've seen for all of 17 games this season.

I think it's disappointing that people resort to bringing this stuff into the discussion. I think it's low to bring up. It doesn't really impact an argument over the production of players. It just becomes a crutch, and used to make people who come to different conclusions seem as if they're monsters who won't back the guy who experienced all the tragedy.

And frankly, we don't have complete information about what every player is going through, so we should probably just stick to the hockey and not try to rationalize the difficult off-ice times that some hockey players are having and others may or may not be having.

 

[Mathieukferland]

This thread has been very entertaining to read this morning/evening, I will say Schaefer is my number 1 BPA but if it ends up being Buffalo or Chicago picking 1 I would expect Hagens to go first.

And in either of their cases (for different reasons), I don’t think either of them should be rushed to the NHL next year, if purely sporting considerations are placed at the forefront instead of marketing and business, that would be the prudent move

 

[Legend123]

sheeesh

what a terrible looking draft class. Too bad we got 2 second round picks this year instead of next

 

[WarriorofTime]

I don’t think Hagens needs to wait around. He’s already played a full season of college, did the world juniors thing. Not sure on Schaefer with the missed time and coming out of junior.

 

[S E P H]

Some people here have the memory of a goldfish. Nolan Patrick fell to 2, Shane Wright fell to 4, both were at one point the consensus 1st overall pick. How exactly is there a conspiracy to get a Canadian selected first?

A smaller forward with a late birthday needs elite production to beat out a 6’2 defenseman with Schaefer’s skill set. That can’t be surprising to anyone who has followed the draft for some time.

Nolan Patrick was never a consensus 1st overall pick, like ever. He was always seen to potentially challenge 1st overall and be a safe top 5 pick. He was always super overrated though, never liked him not because of zero talent but because I saw a player more around 6 to 10 than being top 5 level.

Wright was super hyped to be 1st overall, but that's because he played in the CHL and OHL of all places. When you include the words of talent and OHL, there is a huge circlejerk that happens. NHL teams were smart not to select him in the top 3.

The majority of NHL scouts live and work around the CHL, especially the OHL, so it is not a surprise that Schaefer is 1st overall even though he doesn't belong there. If Hagens was in the OHL, he would clearly be 1OA. This doesn't mean Schaefer sucks because he doesn't, but people are labelling him Scott Neidermayer 2.0 and that's awful to do to the poor lad because no way he comes close to that level from what I have watched.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Some people here have the memory of a goldfish. Nolan Patrick fell to 2, Shane Wright fell to 4, both were at one point the consensus 1st overall pick. How exactly is there a conspiracy to get a Canadian selected first?

2020: Canadian
2021: Canadian
2022: Slovakian (Canadian massively hyped for years at 1OA and only at the very end a brave team dissented)
2023: Canadian
2024: Canadian
2025: Canadian (it's already fixed, and if someone else goes 1OA it'll be like 2022).

Do you not see a pattern? Maybe other people aren't the ones with the memory of a goldfish.

It's also worth pointing out that in each of these drafts (let's leave 2024 out of it because there's only 1 guy who is in the NHL, so others haven't gotten a chance to prove themselves), it's not exactly clear-cut that the Canadian 1OA is the best player from the draft. In some of them, it's clear they aren't.

Obviously there's a pattern here of who goes first that doesn't align with who the best player ends up being. Maybe teams should broaden their horizons a little bit, and start considering players from other nations at 1OA.

A smaller forward with a late birthday needs elite production to beat out a 6’2 defenseman with Schaefer’s skill set. That can’t be surprising to anyone who has followed the draft for some time.

Oh stop, this is just nonsense.

What does a late birthday have to do with it? You're essentially saying Hagens is at fault for being born the time of year he was.

Why does Hagens need "elite production" (specifically this NCAA season when it comes to PPG as he's had elite production last year, the year before, at the WHC17, at the WJC18, at the WJC20) but Schaefer doesn't?

What about his skillset makes it such that you just have to defer to his amazingness?

 

[montreal]

Hagens definitely isn't the 3rd wheel on BC and has been consistently their best player on the best team in the country (maybe besides Fowler). Why do you feel his has been underwhelming? Sounds like you haven't watched many games.

I would say Leonard's been their best player because he brings the physical element as well. What makes BC so good and such a good shot at winning a National Championship is how well they play defensively. Blocking shots, not giving up shots and then if they do you have to beat maybe the best goalie in the NCAA. (it's hard for me to say as I suck evaluating goalies as it's the only position I never played and so often he looks bored when he goes 20-30 mins and faces 3 or 4 shots)

But I have almost every game of BC where I focus only on Fowler and Hagens,

 

[S E P H]

Late birthdays argument is more overrated than faceoff percentage and plus/minus rating.

 

[koyvoo]

The things that hardcore fandom does to people is truly fascinating.

Someone once said- “people convince themselves of anything to ease their own anxieties”

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Yeah a 1.3PPG, high end skating, responsible defensemen isn't special at all.

Ignoring the fact he missed time with mono which can completely destroy your conditioning so more than just time you're out.

No one cares if you think Hagens still deserves to be #1, but acting like it's some big conspiracy is pathetic.

We are discussing statistical production. His statistical production is not historically special for a draft eligible defenseman (and his production is even less impressive when you include last season).

For the record, Hagens has numerous records, (so not just ranking high, but the dude with the highest numbers ever is him) when it comes to statistical production. People are nitpicking his statistical production this one year. They don't do so for his time in the NTDP or the WHC17 or the WJC18 or the WJC20. And that's because he fares exceptionally well, at a clear 1OA level, in those settings.

Schaefer has never come close to statistically being 1OA level anywhere.

Maybe there's another reason he should be 1OA, but this idea that Hagens has to put up special numbers this year to keep up with Schaefer is absolutely perverted. It should be the other way around. Hagens has more than shown us 1OA statistical production in many settings over the years. Schaefer is the one that has to at least show it to us once.

 

[Rare Jewel]

he majority of NHL scouts live and work around the CHL, especially the OHL, so it is not a surprise that Schaefer is 1st overall even though he doesn't belong there. If Hagens was in the OHL, he would clearly be 1OA. This doesn't mean Schaefer sucks because he doesn't, but people are labelling him Scott Neidermayer 2.0 and that's awful to do to the poor lad because no way he comes close to that level from what I have watched.

Well that's just your opinion man....

But if Hagens was in the OHL, I don't think his stats would be better than what Michael Misa is putting up, and there really isn't much talk of him going 1st now.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

How is the system crooked these scouts work for professional teams not National ones, they don't care where any player is from.

They are biased. They don't broaden their horizons. They don't contextualize well what they are seeing. They don't understand the trends.

Schaefer has literally titled the ice in the OHL this year and had a dominant, albeit short, performance at the WJHC, scouts can see how one of the youngest guys in this draft already being this good and project him.

Okay, and he's a good player, but I'm not sure how that's unanimous 1OA for a player who came into this season with a paper thin resume and has only played 17 games this season.

For some reason you have had a thing about him for quite a while and I just don't get it because you seem rational and very knowledgeable.

Please, this is just nonsense. I have nothing against a player. I think he's a good player. I have something against the people that are relentless in their pursuit for a Canadian to be picked first every single year and have control of the system in such a way where we actually rarely ever see a Canadian player picked first anymore, even if the data suggests the best player from a draft usually isn't Canadian. I also think it's very disheartening how every single country other than Canada thinks the system is rigged against their players and their players will be undervalued when it comes to the draft, while Canada is seeing by far the biggest decline in hockey of any country.

What's your explanation for how that computes?

Well that's just your opinion man....

But if Hagens was in the OHL, I don't think his stats would be better than what Michael Misa is putting up, and there really isn't much talk of him going 1st now.

For the record, Hagens has thoroughly outplayed and scored Misa and Martone in international tournaments over the years. Schaefer too.

That's the only data we have of them in the same setting.

 

[Rare Jewel]

For the record, Hagens has thoroughly outplayed and scored Misa and Martone in international tournaments over the years. Schaefer too.

That's the only data we have of them in the same setting.

"Over the years"

How far are we going back here? Emile Guite was considered a top 5 pick a little over a year ago, things change.

 

[Rare Jewel]

Late birthdays argument is more overrated than faceoff percentage and plus/minus rating.

Well it depends doesn't it? On an induvial basis, perhaps and I do I think it's better that as a late birthday playing in the NCAA is to Hagens advantage.

But when weighed against what another player is and could become, it probably does matter. Particularly when there's as wide a gap between Schaefer and Hagens.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Well that's just your opinion man....

But if Hagens was in the OHL, I don't think his stats would be better than what Michael Misa is putting up, and there really isn't much talk of him going 1st now.

He'd produce more than Misa I think. He had a 1.8 PPG in the USHL games the prior season. Kids moving from USHL to OHL haven't exactly struggled to produce and often see a rise in production with age/experience. OHL is a pretty easy league to produce in as even nobodies get to a 1.2 PPG (35 kids entering tonight, across only 20 teams). Hagens probably around 2.1-2.2 PPG just guessing, obviously which team matters. Misa doesn't really have the same production track record prior to this year or outside of OHL settings and his production is pretty similar to a lot of other guys from prior years.

 

[Rare Jewel]

He'd produce more than Misa I think. He had a 1.8 PPG in the USHL games the prior season. Kids moving from USHL to OHL haven't exactly struggled to produce and often see a rise in production with age/experience. OHL is a pretty easy league to produce in as even nobodies get to a 1.2 PPG (35 kids entering tonight, across only 20 teams). Hagens probably around 2.1-2.2 PPG just guessing, obviously which team matters.

He would do well no doubt, I don't think he have the same goals totals though...

But i think if he were in the OHL the late birthday becomes more of a advantage for him.

 

[LilLeeroy]

I would say Leonard's been their best player because he brings the physical element as well. What makes BC so good and such a good shot at winning a National Championship is how well they play defensively. Blocking shots, not giving up shots and then if they do you have to beat maybe the best goalie in the NCAA. (it's hard for me to say as I suck evaluating goalies as it's the only position I never played and so often he looks bored when he goes 20-30 mins and faces 3 or 4 shots)

But I have almost every game of BC where I focus only on Fowler and Hagens,

I personally disagree with that a lot and know you have been watching a lot of BC games as well. Leonard has been off for a lot of this year. He'll get the game tying/game winning goal, but they were only down in the first place because he was constantly turning over the puck and missing open guys for the first 50 minutes.

I think Hagens has been a much bigger part of their elite defense and near perfect PK than Leonard has been.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

"Over the years"

How far are we going back here? Emile Guite was considered a top 5 pick a little over a year ago, things change.

Junior aged years. That would be the last three seasons for some of them and two for others.

Well it depends doesn't it? On an induvial basis, perhaps and I do I think it's better that as a late birthday playing in the NCAA is to Hagens advantage.

But when weighed against what another player is and could become, it probably does matter. Particularly when there's as wide a gap between Schaefer and Hagens.

And that's how you get Laine over Matthews.

People think they've found some magic formula how to use this data, and they simply haven't. There's no conversion rate that anyone has mastered with this.

To use it within a direct comparison as a positive for one player and negative for another is not very smart. It just gets you to a place where you weigh a factor that most of the time won't end up mattering at all, and clouding the equation.

The way it should be used is when assessing a player on their own merits in relation to their production at a certain level. It doesn't get you anywhere productive elsewhere.

 

[S E P H]

Well it depends doesn't it? On an induvial basis, perhaps and I do I think it's better that as a late birthday playing in the NCAA is to Hagens advantage.

But when weighed against what another player is and could become, it probably does matter. Particularly when there's as wide a gap between Schaefer and Hagens.

If a player is talented, they will overcome everything. A similar argument is made comparing bad development teams versus good development teams. If a player has the talent to be an NHL player, he will overcome all the awful attributes that a bad development teams display.

Well that's just your opinion man....

But if Hagens was in the OHL, I don't think his stats would be better than what Michael Misa is putting up, and there really isn't much talk of him going 1st now.

It has always been my opinion, thinking it is not is boy cry wolf on you brethren. I actually believe that besides Hagens, Misa should have 1st overall considerations. I've seen it before, Kent Johnson is a good example of somebody who should have gone 1st overall in his draft class, he was clearly the most talented one. Personally speaking, I would have drafted Brandt Clarke 1OA in 2021 if I was a club, he to me had the offensive tools you don't normally see in defencemen including the size and skating, even over Schaefer.

 

[leafs4life94]

2020: Canadian
2021: Canadian
2022: Slovakian (Canadian massively hyped for years at 1OA and only at the very end a brave team dissented)
2023: Canadian
2024: Canadian
2025: Canadian (it's already fixed, and if someone else goes 1OA it'll be like 2022).

Do you not see a pattern? Maybe other people aren't the ones with the memory of a goldfish.

It's also worth pointing out that in each of these drafts (let's leave 2024 out of it because there's only 1 guy who is in the NHL, so others haven't gotten a chance to prove themselves), it's not exactly clear-cut that the Canadian 1OA is the best player from the draft. In some of them, it's clear they aren't.

Obviously there's a pattern here of who goes first that doesn't align with who the best player ends up being. Maybe teams should broaden their horizons a little bit, and start considering players from other nations at 1OA.

Convenient how your list stops right when it's four non-Canadians from Matthews through to Hughes...

We are discussing statistical production. His statistical production is not historically special for a draft eligible defenseman (and his production is even less impressive when you include last season).

For the record, Hagens has numerous records, (so not just ranking high, but the dude with the highest numbers ever is him) when it comes to statistical production. People are nitpicking his statistical production this one year. They don't do so for his time in the NTDP or the WHC17 or the WJC18 or the WJC20. And that's because he fares exceptionally well, at a clear 1OA level, in those settings.

Schaefer has never come close to statistically being 1OA level anywhere.

Maybe there's another reason he should be 1OA, but this idea that Hagens has to put up special numbers this year to keep up with Schaefer is absolutely perverted. It should be the other way around. Hagens has more than shown us 1OA statistical production in many settings over the years. Schaefer is the one that has to at least show it to us once.

So points are the only thing that determines the order of who should go where? That makes lot of sense with all your opinions. There's only been 4 PPG OHL seasons in the last decade, and Schaefer is better than the other 4 defensively, but that doesn't matter to you.

 

[Rare Jewel]

Junior aged years. That would be the last three seasons for some of them and two for others.

And that's how you get Laine over Matthews.

People think they've found some magic formula how to use this data, and they simply haven't. There's no conversion rate that anyone has mastered with this.

To use it within a direct comparison as a positive for one player and negative for another is not very smart. It just gets you to a place where you weigh a factor that most of the time won't end up mattering at all, and clouding the equation.

The way it should be used is when assessing a player on their own merits in relation to their production at a certain level. It doesn't get you anywhere productive elsewhere.

Matthews and Laine wasn't as close this. Only Mckeens were dumb enough to have Laine over him in their rankings.

Wouldn't a better a closer comparable would be Hischer over Patrick? Even before the injuries for Nolan.

 

[Coach Reggie Dunlop]

It’s astounding how awful the US remains at producing top talent. You’ve had the largest pool of youth players for years now, on the strength of practically exclusive investment by an NHL dominated by American owners to the detriment of growing the game in Europe and elsewhere, and we’re still in a position where you can’t say with certainty that you will contribute 15% of the draft’s first round. With how things stand projected today, it looks like you’re in the middle of what is likely to be at least a decade-long stretch without contributing a first overall pick, either. It’s incredible that your best-on-best national team isn’t even the odds-on favourite going into a tournament after Canada has undergone a decade of disastrous draft classes by our standards.

In light of this, I suppose it’s not surprising that a number of Americans here might feel a need to conjure up and delude themselves with conspiracy theories (which frankly seems to be becoming a bit of a national identity to those of us on the outside looking in) and crow about junior tournaments that your players prepare for together for years only to inconsistently succeed in eking by “B” teams thrown together days in advance. To those few: pull yourself together.

lol what? The United States has won 3 out of the last 5 world junior championships.