Speculation: Bob McKenzie (Weak Draft after 15-20 range)

[Jared Dunn]

Currently,
LV, Edm, Col, Dal, Min, in the west PO position have given up their first. LA, Win, Van, Cal still have their own.
Fla, TOR, TB, NYR, NJ, have given up theirs.
Wash, Car, Ott (option to surrender) still have theirs.

Habs almost definitely getting the Flames 1st at this point, they're not gonna surpass Florida but doubt they'll slide to bottom 10 either

 

[shello]

Hard to always fully trust the "this is a weak/strong draft" narrative that we always hear. If I remember correctly, 1999 was looked to as a strong draft and it was one of the worst of all time. Always about the story lines

 

[Brodeur]

We just did...Granlund for a 1st from Dallas. No way SJ could have gotten that value from the 23 or 24 drafts and no way they'd have gotten it for the 26 draft. Dallas essentially traded a 2nd rounder for Granlund which is about what he's worth w/o retention.

That deal (Granlund+Ceci) kinda felt similar to how Tarasenko/Palmieri fetched 1st rounders at recent deadline. Tarasenko was packaged with Niko Mikkola while Palmieri was packaged with Travis Zajac. Maybe on their own, Tarasenko or Palmieri were worth a 2nd + 3rd (like Tyler Toffoli last year) and then Mikkola/Zajac had some value separately. "Combine" their value and it added up to a late 1st.

================

As others pointed out, a fair number of 2025 1sts have already exchanged hands. We'll see if Calgary/Montreal get aggressive or hang onto their extra pick(s). LA is hosting this year's draft so there might be some ownership desire to keep the pick. Carolina's owner hasn't wanted to give up their 1st for a rental in the past.

 

[Habs Halifax]

It would take a Wolf injury and then it would be a free fall downwards

True. I'm not that worried about it. Right now, the Flames pick is 18 and the Panthers pick is 25. I would not expect us to get another Hage quality hit at 18 or 25. The waive drop is right around that 15-20 range and even at 18, you still got to take the best player. There are no guaranteed hits in the NHL draft... not even in the top 10.

What I can see happening is the Habs package both picks to try to move down. Habs pick might be around 8-12... that's how it's tracking. So we might try to move 9 and 18 for 5 or 6 (as an example).

Or the Habs try to use our 1st rounders to package with someone like Dach for an upgrade. Habs are ready to make a deal and offer futures and prospects to improve our team now but we are looking to bring in a guy with term or team control.

 

[Profet]

LA is hosting this year's draft so there might be some ownership desire to keep the pick. Carolina's owner hasn't wanted to give up their 1st for a rental in the past

I thought the drafts were virtual going forward?

Or am I crazy?

 

[Habs Halifax]

I believe it was in the 2nd intermission of Sat broadcast where Friedman felt that first round picks would be much more in play this year due to the perceived lack of talent outside the top 10.

Yup. I posted this because my hunch told me some fans on these boards were not aware of this context. Every TDL and draft comes with different dynamics.

 

[Bond]

I thought the drafts were virtual going forward?

Or am I crazy?

I still think a team ‘hosts’ it but it’s definitely virtual

 

[Habs Halifax]

As a Flames fan, this has made the Montreal trade very easy to swallow. Especially with us now clearing 'going for it' and breathing down LA's neck.

Flames have rebounded well this year. I have watched them most of the year and the just keep winning games and staying in a firm playoff spot for the most part. I wish you guys luck.

Yeah, right now it's the difference between 18 and 25. That's not a massive gap in value in this draft.

 

[StreetHawk]

Habs almost definitely getting the Flames 1st at this point, they're not gonna surpass Florida but doubt they'll slide to bottom 10 either

Cal at a 0.567 PPG pace while STL at 10th OA is at a 0.491 PPG pace. 7 points ahead with 30 games or so left.

Yes, I doubt Cal falls into the bottom 10, but who knows as we approach the TDL. Currently a 7 spot difference between where CAL is vs FLA in the PTS% standings.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Hard to always fully trust the "this is a weak/strong draft" narrative that we always hear. If I remember correctly, 1999 was looked to as a strong draft and it was one of the worst of all time. Always about the story lines

This is fair because right now, there is a popular bandwagon that believes it's not deep. However, there is a credible source (Bob M) who has reported this and you can see the trends in the latest trades that were announced. Are they right or wrong? Only time will tell.

There is still a decent amount of hockey left to play this season and the draft year is always the most important for trying to track the progression of these 17/18 year olds. It's a tough business. Still the U18's and playoffs for several development leagues to evaluate

 

[wintersej]

True. I'm not that worried about it. Right now, the Flames pick is 18 and the Panthers pick is 25. I would not expect us to get another Hage quality hit at 18 or 25. The waive drop is right around that 15-20 range and even at 18, you still got to take the best player. There are no guaranteed hits in the NHL draft... not even in the top 10.

What I can see happening is the Habs package both picks to try to move down. Habs pick might be around 8-12... that's how it's tracking. So we might try to move 9 and 18 for 5 or 6 (as an example).

Or the Habs try to use our 1st rounders to package with someone like Dach for an upgrade. Habs are ready to make a deal and offer futures and prospects to improve our team now but we are looking to bring in a guy with term or team control.

Those are very hard deals to pull off.

 

[dgibb10]

True. I'm not that worried about it. Right now, the Flames pick is 18 and the Panthers pick is 25. I would not expect us to get another Hage quality hit at 18 or 25. The waive drop is right around that 15-20 range and even at 18, you still got to take the best player. There are no guaranteed hits in the NHL draft... not even in the top 10.

What I can see happening is the Habs package both picks to try to move down. Habs pick might be around 8-12... that's how it's tracking. So we might try to move 9 and 18 for 5 or 6 (as an example).

Or the Habs try to use our 1st rounders to package with someone like Dach for an upgrade. Habs are ready to make a deal and offer futures and prospects to improve our team now but we are looking to bring in a guy with term or team control.

"I think there is a massive talent drop after pick 8"

"Please take our picks after said massive drop"

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Makes sense why the NYRs is top 13 protected

Yeah, that number seemed awfully specific when the deal was announced. Seems obvious they have a 'tier' break at 13.

 

[Brodeur]

I thought the drafts were virtual going forward?

Or am I crazy?

I think there's been some confusion about what a decentralized draft means. The teams are staying home but the top prospects are still welcome to attend. For TV purposes it'll look like the NBA / Radio City Music Hall era NFL Drafts.

I don't know if it's been officially announced but several reporters have said that the draft will be at the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles. The theater has ~7,000 seat capacity. The league wouldn't rent out a venue that large if it was a virtual draft.

We'll see how they will do it for TV but there was some initial thought that teams would still send an emissary to announce the (1st round) pick and greet the prospect. We got a taste of that last year with Joe Thornton, Connor Bedard, Celine Dion, Michael Buffer making pick announcements.

It'll be interesting to see if more top prospects opt to stay home like the NBA/NFL. Maybe something feels culturally different with hockey where junior teammates attend to support each other. In 2017 I was sitting behind an Owen Sound group on Day 2; Nick Suzuki went Day 1 and they had five guys go Day 2 not including Sean Durzi who was there but went undrafted.

 

[Petes2424]

Probably a good bet we see teams like Detroit and Columbus, trade out of the 1st Round this year, even though they’re still rebuilding somewhat.

The kid they would draft at 17-20th overall, would be worth much more to let’s say Boston or Pittsburgh than to those teams who have extremely deep prospect pools, when Boston may only have 3 or 4 kids who even have a chance.

Don’t think they’ll do it for UFAs unless they know they’ll sign that player, but to upgrade their team, for their playoff push? Absolutely.

 

[Coach Reggie Dunlop]

Probably a good bet we see teams like Detroit and Columbus, trade out of the 1st Round this year, even though they’re still rebuilding somewhat.

The kid they would draft at 17-20th overall, would be worth much more to let’s say Boston or Pittsburgh than to those teams who have extremely deep prospect pools, when Boston may only have 3 or 4 kids who even have a chance.

Don’t think they’ll do it for UFAs unless they know they’ll sign that player, but to upgrade their team, for their playoff push? Absolutely.

Brandon Carlo to Detroit?

 

[Larry44]

Not sure if anybody watched Bob M mid season review but he said there waive of talent drop around 8 and then another around 15-20. The other thing he said is the 2nd rounders in this draft are your typical 3rd rounders.

With the TDL coming, how do you think this affects the values of those late 1st rounders and 2nd rounders?

Do you see more 2026 picks or prospects being traded vs your normal TDL where it's mostly the looming draft to come?

But, but, but the Flyers kept saying this was going to be a great draft so they loaded up on 2025 picks instead of taking them in '24. Are you saying the Flyers' scouting staff is incompetent? [note: rhetorical question]

 

[Habs Halifax]

But, but, but the Flyers kept saying this was going to be a great draft so they loaded up on 2025 picks instead of taking them in '24. Are you saying the Flyers' scouting staff is incompetent? [note: rhetorical question]

Don't confuse yourself and make it a me thingy. Bob M is saying it... who is a very credible source. I'm just engaging into the context of it. I can see the trends to support Bob, but I can also see that the draft year is the most important for trying to track these 17/18 year olds. We still got 33% of the season to go with U18's and playoffs for all those development leagues outside of the NHL.